TMUS: FY25 Deep Dive
FY25 total revenue $88.3B (+8.5%), service revenue $71.3B (+7.7%) — postpaid revenue $57.9B (+10.7%) the growth engine. Total postpaid net adds 7.8M (+29%) including fixed wireless. Operating cash flow $28.0B (+25%). Capital return $14.1B with 2026 program $14.6B authorized.
Key Takeaways
T-Mobile US closed fiscal 2025 (calendar year ended December 31, 2025) at $88.3 billion of total revenue, up 8.5% YoY — the cleanest top-line acceleration among the three major US wireless carriers. Service revenue reached $71.3 billion (+7.7%), with postpaid service revenue at $57.9 billion (+10.7%) doing the heavy lifting; prepaid was approximately flat at $10.5 billion and wholesale & other declined to $2.9 billion (-16%, on continued Mint Mobile / Sprint-legacy roll-off and DISH MNVO transition completion). Total postpaid net additions reached 7.80 million in FY25 (vs 6.07 million FY24, +29%) — driven by both phone (3.29M, +7% YoY) and fixed wireless / other postpaid lines (the latter accelerating sharply as 5G Home Internet penetration expanded). Net income was $11.0 billion (vs $11.3 billion FY24, -3%) — the modest decline reflects amortization step-up from spectrum + acquisitions. Operating cash flow was $28.0 billion (+25% vs $22.3B FY24); capex $9.96B and spectrum $2.57B brought total cash investing to $12.5B; adjusted free cash flow stepped to $18.0 billion (+5.7%). The capital return program returned $14.1 billion in FY25 ($10.0B buybacks at average $232.96/share + $4.1B dividends). Cumulative shareholder returns since program inception now exceed $45.4 billion ($37.2B buybacks + $8.2B dividends). The Board authorized the 2026 Stockholder Return Program at $14.6 billion (up from $14.0B for 2025). Sell-side coverage is 7 analysts: 6 Buy / 1 Hold / 0 Sell, consensus PT $248.71, range $225-$270. Most striking action: two April 2026 upgrades (Freedom Broker Hold→Buy at $270; KeyBanc Sector Weight→OW at $260) on continued execution.
Main business structure
T-Mobile reports a single integrated wireless segment, with revenue disaggregated by line of business:
| Revenue line | FY25 ($M) | FY24 ($M) | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Postpaid revenues | 57,932 | 52,340 | +10.7% |
| Prepaid revenues | 10,497 | 10,399 | +0.9% |
| Wholesale & other service revenues | 2,877 | 3,439 | -16.3% |
| Total Service Revenue | 71,306 | 66,178 | +7.7% |
| Equipment + Other | 17,003 | 15,222 | +11.7% |
| Total Revenue | 88,309 | 81,400 | +8.5% |
Postpaid revenue (~$58B, the growth engine) combines postpaid phone, postpaid other (tablets, wearables, IoT, and fixed wireless / 5G Home Internet), and Magenta MAX premium tier. The +10.7% growth reflects:
- Phone net adds 3.29M (+7% YoY) — continued share gains from VZ / T despite mature US wireless market
- Fixed wireless / 5G Home Internet net adds — the largest growth contributor in absolute net addition terms; driven the total postpaid net add count to 7.8M
- ARPU stability + premium-tier mix lift (Magenta MAX, T-Mobile Tuesdays)
Postpaid net additions decomposition (millions)
| FY24 | FY25 | YoY | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Postpaid phone net adds | 3.08 | 3.29 | +7% |
| Total postpaid net adds | 6.07 | 7.80 | +29% |
| Implied "other" (fixed wireless + IoT) | 2.99 | 4.51 | +51% |
The implied "other postpaid" line (~$2.99M in FY24, $4.51M in FY25) is the fixed wireless / 5G Home Internet acceleration — the cleanest secular-share-shift story in US telco.
Prepaid (~$10.5B) is the legacy Metro by T-Mobile + Mint Mobile portfolio. Roughly flat in FY25 — Metro stable, Mint contributing modest growth, prepaid market structurally lower-margin than postpaid.
Wholesale & other (~$2.9B) is the MVNO / wholesale book. The -16% FY25 decline reflects DISH Wireless's continued migration off the T-Mobile network (the contractual transition that began in 2023) — this is a known multi-year tailwind elimination, not a competitive loss.
Equipment revenue (~$17B) is device sales. The +12% growth reflects continued device upgrade cycles + iPhone 17 launch impact.
Network investment. T-Mobile completed nationwide 5G mid-band (Ultra Capacity 5G) buildout via 2.5 GHz spectrum from the Sprint merger. The FY25 capex of $9.96B + spectrum $2.57B reflects continued capacity densification + spectrum acquisitions.
Customer concentration. ~135 million postpaid customer relationships, ~22 million prepaid. No single customer concentration concern.
Scale anchors. ~70,000 employees. Network covers 99% of US population with 5G; Ultra Capacity 5G to ~330+ million POPs. Owns most spectrum among the three carriers (largest sub-6 GHz position).
Key core metrics (3-year trend)
1. Total revenue and service revenue growth
| FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue ($B) | 78.6 | 81.4 | 88.3 |
| YoY | — | +4% | +9% |
| Service revenue ($B) | 63.2 | 66.2 | 71.3 |
| Service YoY | — | +5% | +8% |
FY25 acceleration to +9% / +8% on already-large bases is the clean signal — driven by postpaid scale and fixed wireless secular gains.
2. Postpaid net additions
| FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Postpaid phone net adds (M) | 3.08 | 3.08 | 3.29 |
| Total postpaid net adds (M) | 5.65 | 6.07 | 7.80 |
| YoY | — | +7% | +29% |
Total postpaid net adds at 7.8M is the cleanest absolute customer growth number in US wireless — driven by fixed wireless penetration acceleration. The +29% YoY step-up is the largest year-over-year increase in years.
3. Free cash flow trajectory
| FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| OCF ($B) | 18.6 | 22.3 | 28.0 |
| Capex (PP&E, $B) | 9.8 | 8.8 | 10.0 |
| Spectrum & intangibles ($B) | 1.0 | 3.5 | 2.6 |
| Adjusted FCF ($B) | 13.6 | 17.0 | 18.0 |
Operating cash flow stepped up $5.7B (+25%) to $28.0B in FY25 — the cleanest cash flow expansion among any major US telco. Adjusted FCF $18B is approaching the long-running $20B aspirational target.
4. Capital return program
| FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buybacks ($B) | 13.1 | 11.2 | 10.0 |
| Dividends ($B) | 0.7 | 3.3 | 4.1 |
| Total return ($B) | 13.8 | 14.5 | 14.1 |
| Annual program authorization | $14B | $14B | $14.6B (2026) |
T-Mobile has now run its capital return program at near-$14B for three consecutive years — initiated buyback-only, then layered in a meaningful dividend in FY24 ($3.3B) which grew 25% in FY25 to $4.1B. The 2026 program authorized at $14.6B is a modest step-up. Cumulative returns since program inception exceed $45.4 billion.
Market evaluation
Sell-side coverage (as of April 27, 2026). 7 analysts cover the stock.
| Rating | Count |
|---|---|
| Buy / Outperform / Overweight | 6 |
| Hold / Neutral | 1 (Citi) |
| Sell | 0 |
Price targets. Consensus $248.71, range $225 (low: Citi, Neutral) to $270 (high: Freedom Broker, after upgrade).
Recent analyst activity (February through April 2026). 7 covered actions in the window — two upgrades, four PT raises, one PT cut:
- Freedom Broker (Lyaysyan Sedova): upgraded Hold → Buy at $270 on April 17 — the new Street-high
- KeyBanc (Brandon Nispel): upgraded Sector Weight → Overweight at $260 on April 13
- Daiwa Capital (Jonathan Kees): upgraded Neutral → Outperform on February 19, $230 → $240
- Citi (Michael Rollins): $220 → $225 on March 17 — Neutral maintained, +$5
- Wells Fargo (Eric Luebchow): $225 → $235 on February 13 — OW maintained
- Barclays (Kannan Venkateshwar): $240 → $245 on February 12 — OW maintained
- Scotiabank (Maher Yaghi): $270.50 → $266 on February 12 — the lone PT cut (-$4.50), Sector Outperform maintained — a modest trim while still bullish on rating
The clean signal: three upgrades in the window (Freedom, KeyBanc, Daiwa) — an unusually high concentration of rating-direction-positive moves for a single quarter. The single PT cut (Scotiabank -$4.50) is small relative to the overall PT range and the firm maintained a bullish rating.
Buy-side positioning. TMUS is a core large-cap telco holding — historically growth-oriented (vs VZ / T which are dividend-yield-oriented). Trades at a premium multiple to VZ on net add growth + capital return discipline. Short interest below 1.5% of float.
FY25 corporate structure: scale + fixed wireless secular layer
FY25 is the year T-Mobile's "scale + fixed wireless secular layer" thesis printed unambiguously cleanly. Total postpaid net adds reached 7.8 million (+29% YoY) — driven by 3.29M phone net adds (continued share gains) plus a 4.5M+ "other postpaid" surge that reflects 5G Home Internet penetration acceleration. Operating cash flow stepped up 25% to $28.0B and adjusted FCF reached $18.0B. The structural read is that T-Mobile's network advantage (largest sub-6 GHz spectrum position, completed nationwide 5G Ultra Capacity buildout) creates a cost-and-capacity moat that continues to take share from both incumbent carriers and from cable broadband (the 5G Home Internet beachhead). The capital return program is now the cleanest in US telco — $14.6B authorized for 2026 with cumulative returns through FY25 of $45.4B since program inception. The two structural counters: (1) the wholesale book continues to roll off from DISH transition, a 5%-revenue-line drag through FY26-FY27; (2) the secular fixed wireless growth eventually saturates, and the Street model debate is when the +29% net add trajectory normalizes toward mid-to-high single digits. The Q1 FY26 earnings print this week is the proximate event for measuring continued postpaid net add momentum and any update on the 2026 capital deployment cadence.