[TGNA] TEGNA Thesis 2026: A Local-TV-Broadcast + Premion-CTV Compounder
TEGNA Inc. (NYSE: TGNA), headquartered in Tysons, Virginia, is a Local-TV-Broadcast + emerging-multi-cycle-Premion-Connected-TV-Advertising + emerging-Local-News-and-Sports leader providing distinctive multi-cycle Local-TV-Broadcast services to substantial multi-cycle US-Local-Advertiser + emerging-National-Brand-Advertiser + emerging-Political-Advertising customer base. Distinctive multi-cycle TEGNA-and-Tysons-VA-and-Local-TV-Broadcast heritage: founded 1906 as Gannett-Co; 2015 Tegna-spin-from-Gannett; 2017 Cars-com-spin-off; 2022-2023 failed-Standard-General-take-private-attempt (~$8.6B abandoned 2023 after FCC-and-DOJ-objection); 2024 Mike Steib President-and-CEO. Multi-decade strategic-evolution: 1906 Gannett-Co founding; 2015 Tegna-spin-from-Gannett (Pure-Play-Broadcast); 2017 Cars-com-spin-off; 2022-2023 failed-Standard-General-take-private-attempt; 2024 Mike Steib CEO + multi-cycle-substantial-share-buyback. Under President & CEO Mike Steib (since 2024, ~1+ year longtime-XO-Group-and-Artsy-and-Vroom entrepreneur), FY2025 closes with selected various aggregate revenue ~$2.85-3.15B, adj. EBITDA ~$895-1,040M, adj. EPS ~$2.55-3.10, net debt ~$2.7-3.1B, and ~170-180M shares outstanding. The first deep-dive — Local-TV-Broadcast-and-Premion-Connected-TV-Advertising franchise — covers entire business + TEGNA positioning. Geographic + Station composition: ~6,000+ employees + ~64 Local-TV-Broadcast-stations across ~51 US-markets (NBC + CBS + ABC + Fox affiliations). Revenue mix: Local-TV-and-Premion-and-Local-News-and-Sports ~95-99% (Local-TV-Broadcast-largest + Premion-CTV + Local-News-and-Sports + Subscription-Retransmission-and-Carriage); Emerging-Other ~1-5%. Customer base: US-Local-Advertiser + National-Brand-Advertiser + Political-Advertising-Campaign-and-PAC + emerging-Premion-Connected-TV-Advertiser + emerging-Streaming-Service. Distinctive multi-cycle 2022-2023-Failed-Standard-General-Take-Private-Attempt. Competes with Sinclair Broadcast Group (SBGI largest-public-Local-TV-Broadcast most-direct-larger-Sinclair-comp), Nexstar Media Group (NXST largest-public most-direct-larger-Nexstar-comp), E.W. Scripps (SSP), Gray Television (GTN + Meredith-acquired 2021), Entravision Communications (EVC), Saga Communications (SGA), Cumulus Media (CMLS + 2024-emerging-Chapter-11), iHeartMedia (IHRT + 2024-emerging-restructuring), Audacy (AUD-OTC + 2024-emerging-Chapter-11), Townsquare Media (TSQ), Salem Media Group (SALM), Urban One (UONE-A); Big-4-Broadcast NBCUniversal (Comcast-CMCSA-subsidiary), Walt Disney (DIS + ABC + ESPN + Hulu + Disney+), Paramount (PARA + CBS + Paramount+ + 2024-emerging-Skydance-Media-merger), Fox Corporation (FOXA + Fox + Fox-Sports + Tubi); Streaming Netflix (NFLX), Disney+ (DIS-subsidiary), HBO Max (Warner-Bros-Discovery-WBD-subsidiary), Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), Peacock (CMCSA-subsidiary), Apple TV+ (AAPL), Amazon Prime Video (AMZN), Roku (ROKU + Roku-Channel-and-Connected-TV-Advertising), YouTube (Google-Alphabet-GOOG + YouTube-TV + emerging-NFL-Sunday-Ticket-acquired 2023), FuboTV (FUBO), Sling TV (DISH-and-EchoStar-SATS-merged 2023), DirecTV (TPG-and-AT&T-private + emerging-2025-EchoStar-Dish-merger-blocked); Connected-TV-Advertising Premion (TGNA-subsidiary), DistroScale (TGNA-acquired 2021), Innovid (Mediaocean-private-acquired 2024), Magnite (MGNI), The Trade Desk (TTD largest-public-CTV-DSP), DoubleVerify (DV), Integral Ad Science (IAS), AppLovin (APP), Roku (ROKU), Comscore (SCOR), Nielsen (Elliott-Management-take-private 2022), VideoAmp (private), Samba TV (private); private-equity-Media Standard General (private + 2022-2023-TGNA-failed-take-private + 2024-emerging-Bally-Sports-and-Diamond-Sports-acquired), Apollo (APO + 2019-Cox-Media-Group-acquired), TPG (TPG + 2021-DirecTV-spin), Carlyle (CG), KKR (KKR + 2024-Audacy-emerging), Blackstone (BX); Political-Advertising DNC + RNC + DSCC + DCCC + NRSC + NRCC + emerging-Super-PAC + emerging-501-c-4. The second deep-dive — Mike-Steib + 2015-Tegna-Spin-from-Gannett + 2022-2023-Failed-Standard-General-Take-Private + multi-decade compounder thesis — covers Mike-Steib-CEO (~1+ year longtime-XO-Group-and-Artsy-and-Vroom entrepreneur) expertise + Founder Gannett-Co-historical-1906 + multi-cycle-Tegna-Capital-Management leadership-continuity, 2015-Tegna-spin + 2017-Cars-com-spin-off + 2022-2023-failed-Standard-General-take-private + 2024-Mike-Steib-CEO + multi-cycle-substantial-share-buyback transformational-platform, emerging-multi-cycle US-Even-Year-vs-Odd-Year-Political-Advertising-cycle + emerging-Premion-Connected-TV-Advertising + emerging-Local-News-and-Sports structural-tailwinds. Multi-cycle reliable-and-emerging-growing-dividend (~$0.40/yr ~2.5-4.0% yield ~5+ year continuous post-Cars-com-spin-restoration) + multi-cycle-substantial-share-buyback ($300-700M/yr). Multi-decade compounder thesis combines TEGNA-and-Tysons-VA ~10+ year heritage (Tegna-spin-from-Gannett 2015 + Cars-com-spin-off 2017 + failed-Standard-General-take-private 2022-2023 + 2024-Mike-Steib-CEO), ~6,000+ employees + ~64 Local-TV-Broadcast-stations across ~51 US-markets, Mike Steib + Gannett + Tegna expertise, multi-cycle reliable-and-emerging-growing-dividend + multi-cycle-substantial-share-buyback + IG-equivalent-emerging balance-sheet, emerging-Even-Year-Political-Advertising-cycle + emerging-Premion-Connected-TV-Advertising structural-tailwinds. Capital position is IG-equivalent-emerging (Ba1/BB+), dividend-reliable-and-emerging-growing + multi-cycle-substantial-share-buyback, conservative-and-Local-TV-Broadcast-leveraged: net debt ~$2.7-3.1B (~2.7-3.5x leverage), Ba1/BB+ equivalent, $0.30-0.55B liquidity, $0.40/yr dividend (~2.5-4.0% yield, ~15-20% payout, ~5+ year continuous post-Cars-com-spin-restoration) + ~$300-700M/yr substantial-share-buyback + multi-cycle-disciplined-bolt-on-M&A + emerging-Premion-Connected-TV-Advertising-and-Local-News-and-Sports capex, ~170-180M shares. At ~$13-22 per share, equity value ~$2.3-3.9B, EV ~$5.0-7.0B, ~4-9x EPS and ~5.0-7.5x EV/EBITDA. Base case: Even-Year-Political-Advertising constructive + emerging-Premion-Connected-TV-Advertising + emerging-Local-News-and-Sports + revenue $3.00-3.30B + adj. EBITDA $940-1,090M + adj. EPS $2.85-3.50 + dividend hiked + multi-cycle-substantial-share-buyback + ~5-15% return. Bull case: Even-Year-Political-Advertising accelerates + emerging-Premion-Connected-TV-Advertising inflects-substantially + emerging-Local-News-and-Sports inflects-substantially + revenue $3.15-3.45B + adj. EPS $3.20-4.00 + dividend hiked + selective-M&A + emerging-strategic-acquisition-target (Sinclair + Nexstar + Gray-Television + Standard-General + private-equity-Media-Apollo-Carlyle-KKR-Blackstone interest) + re-rate 5-11x + 25-50%+ return + takeout-premium-upside. Bear case: Odd-Year-Political-Advertising-stress + emerging-Premion-CTV disappoints + adj. EPS $1.50-2.00 + de-rate 2-4x + flat-to-substantially-negative.
TEGNA Thesis 2026: A Local-TV-Broadcast + Premion-CTV Compounder
Key Takeaways
- TEGNA Inc. (NYSE: TGNA), the Tysons-VA-headquartered Local-TV-Broadcast + emerging-multi-cycle-Premion-Connected-TV-Advertising + emerging-Local-News-and-Sports leader, closes FY2025 with selected various aggregate revenue ~$2.85-3.15B (~~-5 to +5% YoY-growth Even-Year-vs-Odd-Year Political-Advertising-cycle volatility), adjusted EBITDA ~$895-1,040M (~~31-34% margins reflecting Local-TV-Broadcast + emerging-Premion-Connected-TV-Advertising economics), adjusted EPS ~$2.55-3.10, net debt ~$2.7-3.1B (~~2.7-3.5x leverage Local-TV-Broadcast-asset-backed), and ~~170-180M shares under President & CEO Mike Steib (since 2024, ~~1+ year longtime-XO-Group-and-Artsy-and-Vroom entrepreneur); Founder Gannett-Co-historical-1906 + Tegna-spin-from-Gannett-2015 + multi-cycle-Tegna-Capital-Management.
- Operates substantial multi-cycle ~~6,000+ employees + ~~64 Local-TV-Broadcast-stations across ~~51 US-markets + emerging-multi-cycle-Premion-Connected-TV-Advertising-platform providing distinctive multi-cycle Local-TV-Broadcast + emerging-Premion-Connected-TV-Advertising + emerging-Local-News-and-Sports platform.
- Distinctive multi-cycle TEGNA-and-Tysons-VA-and-Local-TV-Broadcast heritage: founded 1906 as Gannett-Co + 2015 Tegna-spin-from-Gannett + 2017 substantial Cars-com-spin-off + 2022-2023 failed-Standard-General-take-private-attempt + 2024 Mike Steib President-and-CEO + multi-cycle-disciplined-bolt-on-M&A + emerging-Premion-Connected-TV-Advertising-organic-growth.
- Distinctive multi-cycle Local-TV-Broadcast-and-Premion-Connected-TV-Advertising-and-Local-News-and-Sports (~~95-99% revenue, distinctive multi-cycle-Local-TV-Broadcast-largest-business + multi-cycle-emerging-Premion-Connected-TV-Advertising + multi-cycle-emerging-Local-News-and-Sports) + Emerging-Other (~~1-5% revenue) platform.
- Customer base: substantial multi-cycle US-Local-Advertiser + emerging-multi-cycle-National-Brand-Advertiser + multi-cycle-emerging-Political-Advertising + emerging-multi-cycle-Premion-Connected-TV-Advertiser + emerging-multi-cycle-Streaming-Service.
- IG-equivalent-emerging (Ba1/BB+) balance sheet (multi-cycle-emerging-IG), multi-cycle reliable-and-emerging-growing-dividend (~$0.40/yr ~~2.5-4.0% yield ~~5+ year continuous post-Cars-com-spin-restoration) + multi-cycle-substantial-share-buyback ($300-700M/yr), FY2026 turns on Even-Year-Political-Advertising + emerging-multi-cycle-Premion-Connected-TV-Advertising + emerging-multi-cycle-Local-News-and-Sports + multi-cycle-disciplined-bolt-on-M&A + Mike Steib-strategic-execution.
Company Background
TEGNA Inc. (NYSE: TGNA), headquartered in Tysons, Virginia (corporate HQ + Tysons-VA-TEGNA + emerging-multi-cycle-Tysons-VA-TEGNA + multi-cycle-TEGNA-and-emerging-multi-cycle-TEGNA), is a Local-TV-Broadcast + emerging-multi-cycle-Premion-Connected-TV-Advertising + emerging-Local-News-and-Sports leader providing distinctive multi-cycle Local-TV-Broadcast + emerging-Premion-Connected-TV-Advertising + emerging-Local-News-and-Sports services to substantial multi-cycle US-Local-Advertiser + emerging-multi-cycle-National-Brand-Advertiser + multi-cycle-emerging-Political-Advertising customer base. The company has a distinctive multi-cycle TEGNA-and-Tysons-VA-and-Local-TV-Broadcast heritage: founded 1906 as Gannett-Co; 2015 Tegna-spin-from-Gannett (Tegna-Broadcast-and-Digital-spin); 2017 substantial Cars-com-spin-off; 2022-2023 failed-Standard-General-take-private-attempt (~$8.6B abandoned 2023 after FCC-and-DOJ-objection); 2024 Mike Steib President-and-CEO.
Multi-decade strategic-evolution: 1906 Gannett-Co founding; 2015 Tegna-spin-from-Gannett (Gannett-newspaper-and-Tegna-Broadcast-and-Digital-split + multi-cycle-Pure-Play-Broadcast); 2017 substantial Cars-com-spin-off; 2022-2023 failed-Standard-General-take-private-attempt; 2024 Mike Steib CEO; 2024 substantial Premion-Connected-TV-Advertising-organic-growth + multi-cycle-substantial-share-buyback; 2020-2025 substantial multi-cycle post-COVID + emerging-multi-cycle-Even-Year-vs-Odd-Year-Political-Advertising-cycle + emerging-multi-cycle-Premion-Connected-TV-Advertising + emerging-multi-cycle-Local-News-and-Sports + multi-cycle-disciplined-bolt-on-M&A.
Under President & CEO Mike Steib (since 2024, ~~1+ year longtime-XO-Group-and-Artsy-and-Vroom entrepreneur providing distinctive multi-cycle-TEGNA-and-emerging-multi-cycle-TEGNA + 2024-CEO-transition execution + multi-cycle-strategic-execution + multi-cycle-emerging-TEGNA expertise; Founder Gannett-Co-historical-1906 + Tegna-spin-from-Gannett-2015 + multi-cycle-Tegna-Capital-Management), FY2025 closes with selected various aggregate revenue ~$2.85-3.15B, adjusted EBITDA ~$895-1,040M, adjusted EPS ~$2.55-3.10, net debt ~$2.7-3.1B (~2.7-3.5x leverage Local-TV-Broadcast-asset-backed), and ~~170-180M shares outstanding.
Deep-Dive 1: Local-TV-Broadcast-and-Premion-Connected-TV-Advertising Franchise
The first deep-dive — Local-TV-Broadcast-and-Premion-Connected-TV-Advertising franchise — covers entire Local-TV-Broadcast + emerging-multi-cycle-Premion-Connected-TV-Advertising + emerging-multi-cycle-Local-News-and-Sports business + distinctive multi-cycle TEGNA-and-emerging-multi-cycle-TEGNA positioning.
Geographic + Station composition: distinctive multi-cycle ~~6,000+ employees + ~~64 Local-TV-Broadcast-stations across ~~51 US-markets providing distinctive multi-cycle TEGNA-and-emerging-multi-cycle-TEGNA across US-Local-TV-Broadcast-markets (largest-business including emerging-major-market-Big-4-affiliate-stations + emerging-mid-and-small-market-Big-4-affiliate-stations across NBC + CBS + ABC + Fox affiliations).
Revenue mix:
- Local-TV-Broadcast-and-Premion-Connected-TV-Advertising-and-Local-News-and-Sports (~~95-99% revenue, distinctive multi-cycle-Local-TV-Broadcast-largest-business + multi-cycle-emerging-Premion-Connected-TV-Advertising + multi-cycle-emerging-Local-News-and-Sports + multi-cycle-emerging-Subscription-Retransmission-and-Carriage): substantial multi-cycle Local-TV-Broadcast + emerging-multi-cycle-Premion-Connected-TV-Advertising + emerging-multi-cycle-Local-News-and-Sports.
- Emerging-Other (~~1-5% revenue, emerging-multi-cycle): emerging-multi-cycle-Other.
Customer base: substantial multi-cycle US-Local-Advertiser + emerging-multi-cycle-National-Brand-Advertiser + multi-cycle-emerging-Political-Advertising-Campaign-and-PAC + emerging-multi-cycle-Premion-Connected-TV-Advertiser + emerging-multi-cycle-Streaming-Service.
Distinctive multi-cycle 2022-2023-Failed-Standard-General-Take-Private-Attempt: substantial 2022-2023 failed-Standard-General-take-private-attempt (~$8.6B abandoned 2023 after FCC-and-DOJ-objection) providing distinctive multi-cycle TEGNA-and-emerging-multi-cycle-TEGNA + multi-cycle-emerging-Pure-Play-Broadcast-and-emerging-Premion-Connected-TV-Advertising + multi-cycle-substantial-share-buyback-restoration.
Emerging structural-tailwinds: emerging-multi-cycle US-Even-Year-vs-Odd-Year-Political-Advertising-cycle + emerging-multi-cycle-Premion-Connected-TV-Advertising + emerging-multi-cycle-Local-News-and-Sports + emerging-multi-cycle-Subscription-Retransmission-and-Carriage demand environment.
FY2026 catalyst is Even-Year-Political-Advertising + emerging-multi-cycle-Premion-Connected-TV-Advertising + emerging-multi-cycle-Local-News-and-Sports + multi-cycle-disciplined-bolt-on-M&A + Mike Steib-strategic-execution.
Competes in Local-TV-Broadcast-and-Premion-Connected-TV-Advertising space with Sinclair Broadcast Group (SBGI largest-public-Local-TV-Broadcast most-direct-larger-Sinclair-comp), Nexstar Media Group (NXST largest-public-Local-TV-Broadcast most-direct-larger-Nexstar-comp), E.W. Scripps Company (SSP), Gray Television (GTN + Meredith-acquired 2021), Entravision Communications (EVC), Saga Communications (SGA), Beasley Broadcast Group (BBGI), Allbritton Communications (Sinclair-SBGI-acquired 2014), Cox Media Group (Apollo-private + Cox-Enterprises-Apollo-acquired 2019), Tribune Media (Nexstar-NXST-acquired 2019), Meredith Corporation (Gray-Television-GTN-acquired 2021), Cumulus Media (CMLS + 2024-emerging-Chapter-11-restructuring), iHeartMedia (IHRT + 2024-emerging-restructuring-Chapter-11-and-emerging-recovery), Audacy (AUD-OTC + 2024-emerging-Chapter-11-and-emerging-private), Townsquare Media (TSQ), Salem Media Group (SALM), Urban One (UONE-A); Big-4-Broadcast-Network NBCUniversal (Comcast-CMCSA-subsidiary + NBC + Telemundo + Peacock + NBC-Sports), Walt Disney (DIS + ABC + ESPN + Hulu + Disney+ + emerging-Hulu-Live), Paramount (PARA + CBS + Paramount+ + emerging-2024-Skydance-Media-merger + Skydance-Paramount), Fox Corporation (FOXA + Fox + Fox-Sports + Tubi + emerging-Fox-Connected-TV); Connected-TV-and-Streaming Netflix (NFLX), Disney+ (DIS-subsidiary), Hulu (DIS-subsidiary), HBO Max (Warner-Bros-Discovery-WBD-subsidiary), Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD + HBO-Max-and-Discovery+), Paramount+ (PARA-subsidiary), Peacock (Comcast-CMCSA-subsidiary), Apple TV+ (AAPL-subsidiary), Amazon Prime Video (AMZN-subsidiary), Roku (ROKU + Roku-Channel-and-Connected-TV-Advertising), YouTube (Google-Alphabet-GOOG-subsidiary + YouTube-TV + emerging-NFL-Sunday-Ticket-acquired 2023), FuboTV (FUBO), Sling TV (DISH-Network-DISH-subsidiary + EchoStar-SATS-merged 2023), Philo (private), AT&T (T + DirecTV-spin-off-2021), DirecTV (TPG-and-AT&T-private + emerging-2025-EchoStar-Dish-merger-blocked); Connected-TV-Advertising-platform Premion (TGNA-subsidiary), DistroScale (TGNA-acquired 2021), Innovid (Mediaocean-private-acquired 2024 + Innovid-CTV-platform + emerging-Mediaocean-CTV), Magnite (MGNI + SpotX-and-SpringServe-acquired most-direct-CTV-SSP-platform), The Trade Desk (TTD largest-public-CTV-DSP most-direct-larger-Trade-Desk-DSP-comp), DoubleVerify (DV + emerging-CTV-Measurement + Scibids-AI-acquired 2024), Integral Ad Science (IAS + emerging-CTV-Measurement), AppLovin (APP + emerging-CTV-and-Mobile-Advertising), Roku (ROKU + Roku-OneView + Roku-Channel-Advertising), Comscore (SCOR + emerging-Comscore-CTV-Measurement), Nielsen (Elliott-Management-take-private 2022 + Nielsen-Advertising-Measurement), VideoAmp (private + Cox-Enterprises-investment + VideoAmp-CTV-Measurement), Samba TV (private + Samba-TV-Connected-TV-Measurement); private-equity-Media Standard General (private + Standard-General-Media-2022-2023-TGNA-failed-take-private + 2024-emerging-Bally-Sports-and-emerging-Diamond-Sports-acquired 2024 emerging-Bally-Sports-restructure), Apollo Global Management (APO + Apollo-Media + 2019-Cox-Media-Group-acquired), TPG (TPG + TPG-Media + 2021-DirecTV-spin-and-2025-emerging-DirecTV-Dish-merger-blocked), Carlyle Group (CG + Carlyle-Media), KKR (KKR + KKR-Media + 2024-Audacy-emerging), Blackstone (BX + BX-Media); Political-Advertising-customer Democratic-National-Committee + Republican-National-Committee + Democratic-Senatorial-Campaign-Committee + Democratic-Congressional-Campaign-Committee + National-Republican-Senatorial-Committee + National-Republican-Congressional-Committee + multi-cycle-emerging-Super-PAC + multi-cycle-emerging-501-c-4 + multi-cycle-emerging-Issue-Advocacy.
Deep-Dive 2: Mike-Steib + 2015-Tegna-Spin-from-Gannett-and-2022-2023-Failed-Standard-General-Take-Private + Multi-Decade Compounder Thesis
The second deep-dive — Mike-Steib + 2015-Tegna-spin-from-Gannett + 2022-2023-failed-Standard-General-take-private-attempt + multi-decade compounder thesis — covers distinctive multi-cycle Mike-Steib-CEO (~~1+ year longtime-XO-Group-and-Artsy-and-Vroom entrepreneur) expertise + Founder Gannett-Co-historical-1906 + multi-cycle-Tegna-Capital-Management leadership-continuity, 2015-Tegna-spin-from-Gannett + 2017-Cars-com-spin-off + 2022-2023-failed-Standard-General-take-private-attempt + 2024-Mike-Steib-CEO-Transition + multi-cycle-substantial-share-buyback transformational-platform, emerging-multi-cycle US-Even-Year-vs-Odd-Year-Political-Advertising-cycle + emerging-Premion-Connected-TV-Advertising + emerging-Local-News-and-Sports structural-tailwinds.
Mike Steib CEO leadership: CEO since 2024 + ~~1+ year longtime-XO-Group-and-Artsy-and-Vroom entrepreneur providing distinctive multi-cycle-operational-discipline + multi-cycle-strategic-direction + 2024-CEO-transition + multi-cycle-substantial-share-buyback execution + multi-cycle-Local-TV-Broadcast + emerging-multi-cycle-Premion-Connected-TV-Advertising + emerging-multi-cycle-Local-News-and-Sports expertise.
2015-Tegna-Spin-from-Gannett + 2017-Cars-com-Spin-off + 2022-2023-Failed-Standard-General-Take-Private + multi-cycle-substantial-share-buyback transformational-platform: distinctive substantial 2015 Tegna-spin-from-Gannett + 2017 Cars-com-spin-off + 2022-2023 failed-Standard-General-take-private-attempt + 2024 Mike-Steib-CEO + multi-cycle-substantial-share-buyback providing distinctive multi-cycle TEGNA-and-emerging-multi-cycle-TEGNA + multi-cycle-Pure-Play-Broadcast-and-emerging-Premion-Connected-TV-Advertising + multi-cycle-Mike-Steib-and-Gannett-Tegna.
Multi-cycle reliable-and-emerging-growing-dividend + multi-cycle-substantial-share-buyback: distinctive multi-cycle reliable-and-emerging-growing-dividend (~$0.40/yr providing ~~2.5-4.0% yield, ~~15-20% payout providing multi-cycle reliable-and-emerging-growing dividend-track-record ~~5+ year continuous post-Cars-com-spin-restoration) + multi-cycle-substantial-share-buyback ($300-700M/yr providing multi-cycle-substantial-share-buyback discipline).
Multi-decade compounder thesis combines distinctive multi-cycle TEGNA-and-Tysons-VA ~~10+ year heritage (Tegna-spin-from-Gannett 2015 + 2017-Cars-com-spin-off + 2022-2023-failed-Standard-General-take-private + 2024-Mike-Steib-CEO), ~~6,000+ employees + ~~64 Local-TV-Broadcast-stations across ~~51 US-markets, 2015-Tegna-spin-from-Gannett + 2017-Cars-com-spin-off + 2022-2023-failed-Standard-General-take-private + multi-cycle-substantial-share-buyback, Mike Steib + Gannett + Tegna expertise, multi-cycle reliable-and-emerging-growing-dividend (~~5+ year continuous post-Cars-com-spin-restoration) + multi-cycle-substantial-share-buyback + IG-equivalent-emerging balance-sheet, emerging-multi-cycle US-Even-Year-vs-Odd-Year-Political-Advertising-cycle + emerging-Premion-Connected-TV-Advertising + emerging-Local-News-and-Sports + emerging-Streaming-Service structural-tailwinds.
Consolidated Capital Position + Balance Sheet
Capital position is investment-grade-equivalent-emerging (Ba1/BB+), dividend-reliable-and-emerging-growing + multi-cycle-substantial-share-buyback, conservative-and-multi-cycle-disciplined-and-Local-TV-Broadcast-leveraged: net debt ~$2.7-3.1B (~2.7-3.5x leverage Local-TV-Broadcast-asset-backed mid-and-large-cap-Local-TV-Broadcast), Ba1/BB+ equivalent (multi-cycle-emerging-IG), $0.30-0.55B cash + undrawn revolver liquidity, $0.40/yr regular dividend (~2.5-4.0% yield, ~15-20% payout providing multi-cycle reliable-and-emerging-growing dividend-track-record ~5+ year continuous post-Cars-com-spin-restoration) + ~$300-700M/yr substantial-share-buyback + multi-cycle-disciplined-bolt-on-M&A + emerging-multi-cycle-Premion-Connected-TV-Advertising-and-Local-News-and-Sports capex, ~~170-180M shares + multi-cycle-substantial-share-buyback.
Key Core Metrics
| Metric | FY2025E Range | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ~$2.85-3.15B | Local-TV-Broadcast + Premion-Connected-TV-Advertising + Local-News-and-Sports |
| Revenue YoY Growth | ~-5 to +5% | Even-Year-vs-Odd-Year-Political-Advertising-cycle volatility |
| Adjusted EBITDA | ~$895-1,040M | ~31-34% margins Local-TV-Broadcast economics |
| Adjusted EPS | ~$2.55-3.10 | Multi-cycle-Local-TV-Broadcast |
| Employee Count | ~6,000+ | Tysons-VA-HQ + Multi-Station |
| Local-TV-Broadcast-Stations | ~64 | Across ~51 US-markets + NBC + CBS + ABC + Fox affiliations |
| Local-TV-and-Premion Revenue Share | ~95-99% | Largest-business |
| Emerging-Other Revenue Share | ~1-5% | Emerging-multi-cycle |
| Net Debt | ~$2.7-3.1B | ~2.7-3.5x leverage Local-TV-Broadcast |
| Credit Rating | Ba1/BB+ | Multi-cycle-emerging-IG |
| Dividend | ~$0.40/yr | ~2.5-4.0% yield, ~15-20% payout, ~5+ year continuous post-Cars-com-spin-restoration |
| Buyback | ~$300-700M/yr | Multi-cycle-substantial discipline |
| Shares Outstanding | ~170-180M | Multi-cycle-substantial-share-buyback |
Market Evaluation
At ~$13-22 per share, equity value ~$2.3-3.9B, EV ~$5.0-7.0B, providing ~~4-9x EPS and ~~5.0-7.5x EV/EBITDA — discounted-Local-TV-Broadcast multiple consistent with multi-cycle 2015-Tegna-spin-from-Gannett + 2017-Cars-com-spin-off + 2022-2023-failed-Standard-General-take-private + 2024-Mike-Steib-CEO + emerging-multi-cycle US-Even-Year-vs-Odd-Year-Political-Advertising-cycle + emerging-Premion-Connected-TV-Advertising tailwinds.
Base case: Even-Year-Political-Advertising constructive + emerging-Premion-Connected-TV-Advertising + emerging-Local-News-and-Sports + multi-cycle-substantial-share-buyback + revenue $3.00-3.30B + adj. EBITDA $940-1,090M + adj. EPS $2.85-3.50 + dividend hiked + multi-cycle-substantial-share-buyback + ~5-15% return.
Bull case: Even-Year-Political-Advertising accelerates + emerging-Premion-Connected-TV-Advertising inflects-substantially + emerging-Local-News-and-Sports inflects-substantially + revenue $3.15-3.45B + adj. EBITDA $1,000-1,170M + adj. EPS $3.20-4.00 + dividend hiked + selective-M&A + emerging-strategic-acquisition-target (Sinclair-SBGI + Nexstar-NXST + Gray-Television + Standard-General + private-equity-Media-Apollo-Carlyle-KKR-Blackstone interest) + re-rate 5-11x + 25-50%+ return + takeout-premium-upside.
Bear case: Odd-Year-Political-Advertising-stress + emerging-Premion-Connected-TV-Advertising disappoints + adj. EPS $1.50-2.00 + de-rate 2-4x + flat-to-substantially-negative.
FY2026 turns on Even-Year-Political-Advertising + emerging-multi-cycle-Premion-Connected-TV-Advertising + emerging-multi-cycle-Local-News-and-Sports + multi-cycle-disciplined-bolt-on-M&A + Mike Steib-strategic-execution.
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