Sun Communities 2025-26: NA SP NOI +5.7%, FY26 Core FFO $6.83-$7.03

FY25 revenue $2.31B. Q4 NA same-property NOI +7.9% (rev +5.9% / exp +2%); FY NA SP NOI +5.7% (revenue +5.6% / expenses +5.4%). Q4 manufactured housing (MH) NOI +8.8%; FY MH NOI +8.9%. Q4 RV NOI +5%; FY RV NOI -1.4% (transient softness). UK FY +3.5%. Blended occupancy >99% in stabilized MH portfolio. >$1.5B returned to shareholders FY25 (dividends + buyback + Safe Harbor monetization). Dividend raised +8% Q1 2026. FY26 guide: core FFO/share $6.83-$7.03 (+5% midpoint); NA SP NOI +4.5%; MH +5.9%; RV +0.9%; UK +2.2%.

Key takeaways

• NA same-property NOI +5.7% FY25 / +7.9% Q4 — best-in-class residential REIT NOI growth. SUI's North American same-property portfolio (manufactured housing communities + RV resorts) generated +5.7% NOI growth for the full year and +7.9% in Q4, with revenue +5.6% and expenses +5.4%. The Q4 acceleration from FY pace reflects (a) MH rent escalators flowing through, (b) RV transient stabilization, and (c) modest expense moderation. This level of NOI growth is meaningfully above peer multifamily and SFR REITs and reflects the durable structural advantages of MH (homeowner-renter dynamic + below-replacement-cost rents + supply constraints).

• Manufactured housing NOI +8.9% FY / +8.8% Q4 — the structural compounder driving the platform. MH is roughly 60%+ of SUI's NOI and is the property type with the cleanest multi-year compounding profile in residential real estate. The +8.9% FY MH NOI growth reflects: (a) low-single-digit occupancy at >99% in stabilized communities, (b) mid-single-digit rent growth via annual rent escalators (typically tied to CPI or scheduled), (c) ancillary revenue layering (utilities billbacks, brokerage), (d) modest expense efficiency. The structural moat — homeowners own their home but rent the land, creating very low turnover (<10% annually) and limited new supply (zoning resistance) — is the underlying driver.

• RV NOI +5% Q4 vs FY -1.4% — transient RV stabilizing after 2023-2024 normalization. RV resorts have been the volatile leg of the SUI platform, with the 2021-2022 COVID-era surge giving way to a 2023-2024 normalization in transient (short-stay) demand. Q4 RV NOI +5% is the first clear sign of stabilization; FY -1.4% remains negative for the year. FY26 RV NOI guide of +0.9% reflects management's continued cautious view on transient demand recovery, with annual (long-stay) RV demand the more durable component.

• >$1.5B returned to shareholders FY25; dividend raised +8% Q1 2026; FY26 core FFO $6.83-$7.03 (+5% midpoint). SUI returned >$1.5B to shareholders in FY25 via dividends + buybacks + the Safe Harbor monetization (marina sub-segment divested at attractive valuation). This is meaningful capital return relative to ~$8B equity market cap. The +8% Q1 2026 dividend increase signals management's confidence in FY26 cash flow and is well-covered by the FY26 core FFO guide. The core FFO $6.83-$7.03 midpoint of $6.93 represents +5% growth vs FY25.

• UK platform +3.5% FY — diversification + holiday park demand stability. SUI's UK holiday park business (~10% of NOI) generated +3.5% FY NOI growth, with FY26 guide +2.2%. UK holiday park real estate is similar to MH in supply dynamics but with more seasonal / discretionary demand. The +3.5% FY growth provides modest diversification benefit and is not a primary thesis driver, but stability there matters.

Business

Sun Communities, Inc. is the largest manufactured housing community + RV resort REIT in North America, with a UK holiday park platform. Year-end FY25 portfolio:

• ~660+ properties across the US, Canada, and the UK
• ~180,000 manufactured housing + RV sites + UK holiday lodges combined
• Manufactured housing communities (~60%+ of NOI): homeowners own their home; rent the land. Average length of stay 10+ years; very low turnover.
• RV resorts (~25% of NOI): annual (long-stay) + transient (short-stay) sites. RV resorts mix permanent/seasonal/transient.
• UK holiday parks (~10% of NOI): leisure/tourism real estate; seasonal rental + holiday home pitches.
• Marina business divested (Safe Harbor monetization completed FY25)

Strategic moves FY25:

• Safe Harbor marina sub-segment monetized at attractive valuation
• Capital recycling: > $1.5B returned to shareholders (dividend + buyback + Safe Harbor proceeds)
• Disciplined acquisition activity in MH + RV (high cap-rate environment)
• Dividend raised +8% Q1 2026
• Continued occupancy growth in stabilized MH portfolio (>99%)
• UK platform held steady (~10% of NOI)
• Multi-year ESG / sustainability investments in communities

FY25 financial performance

Note: FY25 revenue is lower than FY24 reflecting the Safe Harbor marina business divestiture; underlying same-property and core FFO comparisons are more meaningful indicators of operating performance than headline revenue.

The earnings progression: stabilized MH occupancy has climbed steadily from 96.7% in 2022 to >99% in FY25, providing a multi-year occupancy tailwind. MH NOI growth accelerated from +6.5% (FY22-24) to +8.9% (FY25). RV NOI swung from +13% (FY22) to -1.4% (FY25) reflecting normalization.

Capital allocation

• Capital return FY25: >$1.5B returned via dividends + buybacks + Safe Harbor proceeds.
• Dividend: Raised +8% Q1 2026 (vs +1% Q1 2025); $3.92 FY25 dividend → ~$4.20 implied FY26.
• Acquisitions: Disciplined; high cap-rate environment supporting accretive deals.
• Safe Harbor monetization: Marina business divested; proceeds returned to shareholders.
• Net debt/EBITDA: Maintained at conservative levels (target ~5.5x).
• Investment-grade balance sheet: BBB ratings; staggered debt maturities.

FY26 outlook (per Q4 2025 call, 2026-02-XX)

Management noted continued strong demand for stabilized MH communities, ongoing RV transient stabilization, and steady UK holiday park demand. The conservative RV +0.9% guide reflects continued caution on transient demand recovery.

Key risks

RV transient demand volatility. RV resort transient (short-stay) demand has been the volatile leg of the platform. Continued normalization from COVID-era highs creates multi-quarter NOI uncertainty. FY26 RV guide of +0.9% reflects continued caution.

Manufactured housing supply dynamics. While MH supply growth is structurally constrained (zoning + community-level investment economics), individual market dynamics matter. New community development is generally limited.

Interest rate environment. SUI is sensitive to rate environment for (a) refinancing existing debt, (b) acquisition cap rate spreads, (c) home financing for MH residents (home loans secured against MH units). Higher rates can pressure resident affordability over time.

UK platform exposure. ~10% of NOI in UK; FX volatility creates translation impact on reported core FFO. Brexit / UK consumer / European tourism dynamics matter.

Concentration in Florida + Sun Belt. Geographic concentration in Florida + Sun Belt + warm-weather markets creates hurricane / weather event exposure. Insurance costs have been elevated; ongoing.

MH resident affordability. Manufactured housing residents are often value-conscious; rent growth needs to be calibrated to resident affordability + escalator mechanics. Aggressive rent growth can pressure occupancy / turnover.

Capital recycling cadence. Post-Safe Harbor, future capital recycling opportunities are smaller. Continued buyback / acquisition pace dependent on capital availability.

Marina business divestiture transition. While Safe Harbor was divested at attractive valuation, the post-divestiture portfolio is more concentrated in residential land-lease (MH + RV + UK), reducing diversification.

Insurance + property tax dynamics. Florida + Sun Belt property tax + insurance costs have grown materially. Expense growth +5.4% FY25 reflects this; multi-year expense pressure expected to continue.

Acquisition execution. Future MH + RV acquisitions need to be at accretive cap rates. Disciplined pricing required to avoid dilution.

Real estate cycle dynamics. Broader real estate cycles can impact valuations + transaction availability + capital costs.

ESG / regulatory. MH community regulation (state + local) varies; rent control / tenant protection initiatives in select states create regulatory monitoring.

Bottom line

Sun Communities FY25 is a solid year with structural compounding from MH offsetting RV transient softness: NA same-property NOI +5.7% FY (+7.9% Q4); MH NOI +8.9% FY (+8.8% Q4); RV NOI -1.4% FY (+5% Q4 stabilizing); UK +3.5% FY; stabilized MH occupancy >99%. >$1.5B returned to shareholders. Dividend raised +8% Q1 2026.

FY26 guide: core FFO/share $6.83-$7.03 (+5% midpoint); NA SP NOI +4.5%; MH +5.9%; RV +0.9%; UK +2.2%. Continued mid-single-digit core FFO growth + continued progressive dividend.

The risks are real — RV transient demand volatility, MH supply dynamics, interest rate environment, UK platform FX, Florida + Sun Belt concentration, MH resident affordability, capital recycling cadence post-Safe Harbor, marina divestiture concentration, insurance + property tax dynamics, acquisition execution, real estate cycle dynamics, ESG / regulatory monitoring.

But the structural thesis (largest MH community + RV resort REIT in North America + ~180,000 sites + stabilized MH occupancy >99% + MH NOI +8.9% structural compounder + RV stabilizing + UK diversification + +5% FY26 core FFO + +8% Q1 2026 dividend raise + post-Safe Harbor more focused portfolio + investment-grade balance sheet) is intact and FY25 confirms.

Quality residential land-lease REIT compounder, with MH structural advantages providing multi-year NOI growth above peer multifamily. The MH NOI growth + occupancy tailwind + dividend progression + capital return + accretive capital recycling creates one of the cleaner residential REIT compounding setups for investors seeking real estate cash flow exposure with structural property-type advantages. The conservative FY26 framework + MH structural moat + post-Safe Harbor focus + disciplined capital allocation + dividend track record provides multiple paths to outperformance over a multi-year horizon. RV transient cycles + insurance / property tax dynamics + interest rate environment remain ongoing risks, but the MH structural compounder + occupancy upside + capital allocation discipline support continued compounding through cycles.

Citations

• Sun Communities, Inc. FY25 Form 10-K (filed February 2026, SEC EDGAR).
• SUI Q4 2025 earnings call, February 2026 — FY revenue $2.31B; Q4 NA SP NOI +7.9% (rev +5.9% / exp +2%); FY NA SP NOI +5.7%; MH NOI +8.9% FY / +8.8% Q4; RV NOI -1.4% FY / +5% Q4; UK +3.5%; stabilized MH occupancy >99%; >$1.5B returned to shareholders; dividend +8% Q1 2026; FY26 core FFO $6.83-$7.03; NA SP NOI +4.5%; MH +5.9%; RV +0.9%; UK +2.2%.
• SUI Q3 / Q2 / Q1 2025 earnings calls — supporting MH compounding + RV normalization + Safe Harbor monetization.
• Internal financial_statements view (consolidated annual + cash flow + capital structure).