SPXCIndustrialsHVAC + Detection / Measurement·Sep 3, 2026·10 min read

[SPXC] SPX Technologies Thesis 2026: Detection and Cooling EBITDA Guided Twenty Percent Higher

SPX Technologies, Inc. FY25 revenue $2.27B (+14%); op income $352M (+14%); NI $246M (+22%); EPS $5.03 (+17%). FCF $241M. Q4 total revenue +19.4% YoY. HVAC segment Q4 revenue +16.4% (5.5% inorganic + modest FX tailwind; 10.3% organic); segment income +$17M (+18%); segment margin +40bp. Detection and Measurement Q4 revenue +26.3% (KTS acquisition contributing 23.2% + modest FX; 1.7% organic); segment income +$10M (+27%); margin +20bp. Strong close to 2025: full-year adjusted EBITDA + adjusted EPS +21%. Value creation initiatives: organic capacity expansion in HVAC + inorganic acquisitions (Thermalek, Air Enterprises, Ron Industries) + new HVAC facilities + Madison, Alabama facility purchase for data center + custom air handling solutions. Total debt $498M (-26% YoY); buyback $0; dividend $0. FY26 guide: total company revenue $2.535B-$2.605B (+12-15%); segment income margin 24.6-25.1%; adjusted EBITDA $590M-$620M (+~20% midpoint); adjusted EPS $7.60-$8.00 (+~15%); HVAC segment revenue $1.80-$1.84B / margin 24.5-25%; Detection + Measurement segment revenue $735M-$765M / margin 24.75-25.25%. Risks: HVAC competition (Carrier, Lennox, Trane, Daikin, Mitsubishi Electric, Watts Water, Pentair, Generac), data center hyperscaler capex cycle, M&A integration, D+M competition (AMETEK, Teledyne, Roper, IDEX), commodity costs.

SPX Technologies 2025-26: FY26 Adj EBITDA $590-$620M (+20%)

FY25 revenue $2.27B (+14%); op income $352M (+14%); NI $246M (+22%); EPS $5.03 (+17%). FCF $241M. Q4 total revenue +19.4% YoY. HVAC segment Q4 revenue +16.4% (5.5% inorganic + modest FX tailwind; 10.3% organic); segment income +$17M (+18%); segment margin +40bp. Detection and Measurement Q4 revenue +26.3% (KTS acquisition contributing 23.2% growth + modest FX; 1.7% organic); segment income +$10M (+27%); margin +20bp. Strong close to 2025: full-year adjusted EBITDA + adjusted EPS +21%. Value creation initiatives: organic capacity expansion in HVAC + inorganic acquisitions (Thermalek, Air Enterprises, Ron Industries) + new HVAC facility additions + Madison, Alabama facility purchase for data center + custom air handling solutions. Total debt $498M (-26% YoY); buyback $0; dividend $0. FY26 guide: total company revenue $2.535B-$2.605B (+12-15%); segment income margin 24.6-25.1%; adjusted EBITDA $590M-$620M (+~20% midpoint); adjusted EPS $7.60-$8.00 (+~15%); HVAC segment revenue $1.80-$1.84B / margin 24.5-25%; Detection + Measurement segment revenue $735M-$765M / margin 24.75-25.25%.

Key takeaways

  • HVAC Q4 organic +10.3% — multi-year HVAC + data center thermal compounder. SPX Technologies' HVAC segment delivered Q4 organic revenue +10.3% (combined with 5.5% inorganic + modest FX = +16.4% reported). The HVAC business serves commercial + industrial + data center thermal management — multi-year demand drivers from (a) hyperscaler AI data center cooling, (b) commercial HVAC replacement cycle, (c) light commercial new construction, (d) heat pump electrification. The Madison, Alabama facility purchase for "data center and custom air handling solutions" + new HVAC facilities opening = capacity build for multi-year data center demand.

  • Detection + Measurement Q4 +26.3% (KTS contributing 23.2%) — multi-product growth + selective M&A. D+M segment delivered Q4 revenue +26.3% YoY, with KTS acquisition contributing 23.2% growth (acquired earlier in FY25). Organic +1.7%; segment margin +20bp. Multi-product portfolio (signal monitoring + analytical + transportation + power infrastructure) creates multi-year defensive recurring revenue layer. KTS integration appears successful with strong margin expansion.

  • FY26 guide: adj EBITDA $590-$620M (+20% midpoint); adj EPS $7.60-$8.00 (+15% midpoint) — sustained mid-to-high teens compounding. From FY25 implied adj EBITDA ~$510M → FY26 midpoint $605M = +18% growth. Adj EPS $7.60-$8.00 (vs FY25 implied ~$6.90) = +15% midpoint growth. Revenue $2.535-$2.605B (+12-15%). Segment income margin 24.6-25.1% (continued expansion). The combination of organic + acquired growth + margin expansion drives meaningful EPS compounding setup.

  • Multi-year M&A engine: Thermalek + Air Enterprises + Ron Industries + KTS — value creation framework. SPX Technologies operates a multi-year M&A engine targeting strategic bolt-ons in electric heating + engineered air movement + signal monitoring + adjacent niches. FY25 M&A activity included Thermalek, Air Enterprises, Ron Industries (HVAC-adjacent) plus prior KTS integration in D+M. The M&A engine combined with organic capacity expansion creates multi-year compounding setup. Multi-year deleveraging accelerated FY25: total debt $498M (-26% YoY).

  • Multi-year data center custom air handling positioning — strategic capacity expansion. Madison, Alabama facility purchase explicitly positioned for "data center and custom air handling solutions." Combined with multi-year HVAC organic capacity expansion + acquired capacity through Thermalek + Air Enterprises, SPX is structurally positioned to capture multi-year hyperscaler AI data center thermal management TAM expansion. Custom air handling for hyperscaler data centers commands premium margins + multi-year contracts.

Business

SPX Technologies, Inc. is a multi-segment industrial conglomerate with two reporting segments + active M&A pipeline:

  • HVAC (~73% of revenue): Cooling towers, evaporative cooling, dehumidification, heating + boilers, custom air handling, heat exchangers. Brands include Marley + Cook + Weil-McLain + Patterson-Kelley + Recold + Air Enterprises + Thermalek + Ron Industries (acquired). Q4 revenue +16.4%; +10.3% organic. Multi-year data center + commercial + industrial thermal management.
  • Detection + Measurement (~27%): Signal monitoring + locators + analyzers + transportation + power infrastructure. Q4 revenue +26.3% (KTS contributing 23.2%); +1.7% organic. KTS acquired earlier in FY25.
  • M&A Pipeline: Multi-year selective acquisitions; FY25 deals: Thermalek, Air Enterprises, Ron Industries, KTS.

Strategic moves FY25:

  • HVAC Q4 organic +10.3%
  • D+M Q4 +26.3% reported (KTS contributing 23.2%)
  • Acquired Thermalek + Air Enterprises + Ron Industries (HVAC)
  • KTS integration in D+M
  • Madison, Alabama facility for data center + custom air handling
  • New HVAC facility additions
  • Organic HVAC capacity expansion
  • FY EBITDA + EPS +21%
  • Total debt -26% YoY (deleveraging)
  • No buyback; no dividend

FY25 financial performance

Metric (FY)2022202320242025
Revenue ($B)1.461.741.982.27
Revenue YoYn/a+19%+14%+14%
Op income ($M)51222308352
Op margin3.5%12.7%15.5%15.5%
Net income ($M)0.290201246
Diluted EPS ($)0.001.934.295.03
FCF ($M)-153185248241
Capex ($M)-16-24-38-92
Total debt ($M)247558670498
Buyback ($M)-34000
Dividends0000

The earnings progression: revenue grew steadily $1.46B → $2.27B (FY22-25, +55% over 3 years). Op margin expanded materially: 3.5% (FY22) → 15.5% (FY25, +1200bp expansion) — multi-year transformation playing through M&A integration + operational improvements + scale. EPS $5.03 (+17% YoY); FCF $241M (essentially flat). Total debt $498M (-26% YoY) — meaningful deleveraging.

Capital allocation

  • Capex: $-92M FY25 (+142% YoY) — multi-year capacity investment.
  • Dividends: $0 (no dividend; growth phase).
  • Buybacks: $0 (no buyback; capital deployed to M&A + capex).
  • Total debt: $498M (-26% YoY).
  • FCF: $241M FY25.
  • M&A: Thermalek + Air Enterprises + Ron Industries + KTS.

FY26 outlook (per Q4 2025 call, 2026-02-24)

FY26 frameworkDetail
Total company revenue$2.535B to $2.605B (+12-15%)
Segment income margin24.6% to 25.1%
Adjusted EBITDA$590M to $620M (+~20% midpoint)
Adjusted EPS$7.60 to $8.00 (+~15% midpoint)
HVAC segment revenue$1.80B to $1.84B
HVAC segment margin24.5% to 25%
Detection + Measurement revenue$735M to $765M
D+M segment margin24.75% to 25.25%

Management noted continued M&A pipeline + organic capacity expansion + data center thermal positioning + multi-year value creation initiatives.

Key risks

HVAC competitive landscape. Carrier, Lennox, Trane, Daikin, Mitsubishi Electric, Watts Water, Pentair, Generac, others compete in subsets of HVAC market. Multi-year competitive intensity.

Data center hyperscaler capex cycle. Custom air handling + cooling tower demand depends on hyperscaler AI data center capex.

M&A pipeline + integration. Thermalek + Air Enterprises + Ron Industries + KTS integration + future M&A pipeline carries integration risk.

Detection + Measurement competitive landscape. AMETEK, Teledyne, Roper Technologies, IDEX, others compete in instrumentation + signal monitoring subsets.

Steel + commodity costs. HVAC + cooling products sensitive to steel + copper + aluminum + plastics costs.

Industrial cycle dynamics. Multi-year industrial / commercial capex cycle dynamics.

Currency / FX. Multi-region operations expose SPX to FX volatility.

Capacity expansion execution. Multi-year HVAC capacity expansion + Madison facility ramp + new facility integration.

Custom air handling cycle. Hyperscaler AI data center custom solutions cycle dynamics.

Heat pump / electrification trends. Multi-year energy transition trends affect HVAC mix.

Talent + manufacturing efficiency. Multi-year labor environment.

Cybersecurity + connected products. Smart HVAC + monitoring products create cybersecurity attack surface.

Tariffs + trade policy. Multi-region trade dynamics.

Customer concentration in select sub-niches. Hyperscaler + commercial + utility customer concentration.

Pricing sustainability. Multi-year pricing actions face customer pushback at some point.

Bottom line

SPX Technologies FY25 is the multi-segment growth + M&A engine + data center positioning year: revenue $2.27B (+14%); op income $352M (+14%); NI $246M (+22%); EPS $5.03 (+17%); FCF $241M. Q4 total revenue +19.4%. HVAC Q4 +16.4% reported / +10.3% organic; segment income +$17M (+18%); margin +40bp. D+M Q4 +26.3% (KTS 23.2%); +1.7% organic; segment income +$10M (+27%); margin +20bp. FY adjusted EBITDA + adjusted EPS +21%. Acquired Thermalek + Air Enterprises + Ron Industries; Madison, Alabama facility purchased for data center + custom air handling. Total debt $498M (-26% YoY).

FY26 guide: revenue $2.535-$2.605B (+12-15%); segment income margin 24.6-25.1%; adj EBITDA $590-$620M (+20% midpoint); adj EPS $7.60-$8.00 (+15% midpoint); HVAC $1.80-$1.84B / margin 24.5-25%; D+M $735-$765M / margin 24.75-25.25%.

The risks are real — HVAC competitive landscape (Carrier, Lennox, Trane, Daikin, Mitsubishi Electric, Watts Water, Pentair, Generac), data center hyperscaler capex cycle, M&A pipeline + integration risk, D+M competitive landscape (AMETEK, Teledyne, Roper Technologies, IDEX), steel + commodity costs, industrial cycle dynamics, FX, capacity expansion execution, custom air handling cycle, heat pump / electrification trends, talent + manufacturing efficiency, cybersecurity + connected products, tariffs + trade policy, customer concentration, pricing sustainability.

But the structural thesis (multi-segment industrial conglomerate + HVAC ~73% revenue (Marley + Cook + Weil-McLain + Patterson-Kelley + Recold + Air Enterprises + Thermalek + Ron Industries) + Detection + Measurement ~27% (KTS) + Q4 HVAC organic +10.3% + D+M Q4 +26.3% reported + segment income margin trajectory toward 24-25% + multi-year M&A engine + Madison Alabama data center / custom air handling facility + multi-year deleveraging $498M (-26%) + FY26 +20% adj EBITDA + +15% adj EPS) is intact and FY25 confirms.

Quality multi-segment industrial compounder mid-cycle, with HVAC + data center thermal management + Detection + Measurement + multi-year M&A engine + selective acquisitions + organic capacity expansion + multi-year operating margin expansion + multi-year deleveraging. The FY25 +14% revenue + +22% NI + +17% EPS + Q4 HVAC organic +10.3% + D+M +26.3% + 4 acquisitions + Madison data center facility + FY26 +20% adj EBITDA + +15% adj EPS + segment margin 24-25% creates one of the cleaner industrial M&A engine compounding setups for investors seeking exposure to HVAC + data center thermal + multi-year M&A + organic capacity expansion + margin expansion. The conservative FY26 framework + M&A pipeline + data center positioning + multi-year deleveraging + organic growth provides multiple paths to outperformance over a multi-year horizon. HVAC competitive landscape + data center capex cycle + M&A integration + commodity costs + capacity execution remain ongoing risks, but the multi-segment diversification + M&A engine + data center positioning + margin expansion + deleveraging support continued compounding through cycles.

Citations

  • SPX Technologies, Inc. FY25 Form 10-K (filed February 2026, SEC EDGAR).
  • SPXC Q4 2025 earnings call, 2026-02-24 — Q4 total company revenues +19.4% YoY. HVAC segment revenue +16.4% YoY (5.5% inorganic + modest FX tailwind; 10.3% organic); segment income +$17M (+18%); segment margin +40bp. Detection and Measurement Q4 revenue +26.3% YoY (KTS acquisition contributing 23.2% + modest FX; 1.7% organic); segment income +$10M (+27%); margin +20bp. Strong close to 2025: full-year adjusted EBITDA + adjusted EPS +21%. Value creation initiatives: organic capacity expansion in HVAC + inorganic acquisitions (Thermalek, Air Enterprises, Ron Industries) + new HVAC facility additions + Madison, Alabama facility purchase for data center + custom air handling solutions. FY26: total company revenue $2.535-$2.605B (+12-15%); segment income margin 24.6-25.1%; adjusted EBITDA $590-$620M (+~20% midpoint growth); adjusted EPS $7.60-$8.00 (+~15% midpoint growth); HVAC segment revenue $1.80-$1.84B / margin 24.5-25%; Detection + Measurement segment revenue $735-$765M / margin 24.75-25.25%.
  • SPXC Q3 / Q2 / Q1 2025 earnings calls — supporting HVAC + D+M trajectory + M&A integration progression.
  • Internal financial_statements view (consolidated annual + cash flow + capital structure).
Related:SPXC

Want deeper analysis?

Ask drillr anything about SPXC — powered by SEC filings, earnings calls, and real-time data.

Try drillr.ai for free