StoneX Group Inc. (NASDAQ: SNEX) FY2025 (September year-end) revenue ~$3.65-3.95B (+10-15%) with adj. EPS ~$10.50-11.50 reflecting continued post-2024 ~$3.65-3.95B aggregate Multi-Asset Brokerage + Risk Management revenue (~$1.40-1.55B aggregate Commercial + Institutional + ~$1.0-1.1B aggregate Securities + ~$0.55-0.65B aggregate Payments + ~$0.55-0.65B aggregate Retail) under continued Founder + Chairman + CEO Sean O'Connor since 2002 (~23-year founding tenure as StoneX CEO; selected primary post-2002 founding architect via reorganization of FCStone Group + post-2020 INTL FCStone-Gain Capital merger creating StoneX Group). One of the largest US specialty global Multi-Asset Brokerage + Risk Management financial services companies. Founded 1924 as Farmers Commodity Corporation by farmer cooperatives in Iowa (~101-year heritage); selected post-2002 reorganization as INTL FCStone via FCStone Group + International Assets Holding Corporation merger; selected post-2007 NASDAQ listing; selected post-2002-2025 ~$3B+ cumulative tuck-in M&A platform expansion (Gain Capital Holdings 2020 $236M+ + Cotton Distributors 2022); selected post-2020 INTL FCStone-Gain Capital merger creating StoneX Group; selected post-2002 Sean O'Connor founding tenure. Headquartered in New York City; ~3,500-4,000 employees globally with ~50,000+ aggregate global commercial + institutional clients across North America + Europe + Asia Pacific + Latin America. Four primary segments: Commercial ~36%+ ($1.30-1.45B), Institutional + Securities ~30%+ ($1.10-1.20B), Payments ~16%+ ($0.55-0.65B), Retail ~16%+ ($0.55-0.65B). Geographic mix: North America ~55%+ + Europe ~25% + Asia Pacific ~15% + Latin America + selected various aggregate ~5%. Commercial + Institutional + Securities Multi-Asset Brokerage pipeline (~$2.4-2.65B): ~$2.4-2.65B aggregate Commercial + Institutional + Securities revenue (~65%+ revenue mix); selected primary Commercial + Institutional FX + Commodities + Interest Rates + Securities Brokerage; selected ~50,000+ commercial + institutional clients; selected ~9-10K+ institutional accounts; selected ~$1.5-2.0T annual notional trading volume; selected Producer + Consumer + Hedger commodity + FX risk management exposure. Payments + Retail + Cross-Border + FX pipeline: selected continued post-2020 Payments ~$0.55-0.65B revenue (~16%+; Cross-Border + B2B + Charity + NGO Payments + ~140-150 global currencies); selected Retail ~$0.55-0.65B revenue (~16%; post-2020 Gain Capital Forex.com + StoneX One + Retail FX + CFD Brokerage). Founder + Chairman + CEO Sean O'Connor since 2002 (~23-year founding tenure); CFO Bill Dunaway. Capital position: ~$0 dividend (no dividend track post-2002 IPO); ~$50-150M aggregate FY2025 buybacks (post-2024 active capital return); aggregate capital return ~$50-150M FY2025; net leverage ~moderate (~$0.7-0.9B aggregate Subordinated Debt + Notes); non-investment grade BB-/Ba2 credit rating; ~33-34M diluted shares; weighted average debt maturity ~5-6 years. FY2026 thesis: Commercial + Institutional + Securities Multi-Asset Brokerage pipeline + Payments + Retail + Cross-Border + FX pipeline + ~50,000+ commercial clients + ~$1.5-2.0T notional volume + ~140-150 global currencies + post-2020 INTL FCStone-Gain Capital merger continued integration synergies. Risks: Marex Group + ED&F Man + ADM Investor Services + Phillip Capital + Morgan Stanley + Goldman Sachs + JPMorgan + Citigroup + Wise + Western Union + IG Group competitive displacement + commodity + FX volatility cycle considerations + Federal Reserve interest rate cycle considerations + post-2020 Gain Capital integration considerations + Sean O'Connor founder transition continuity considerations + post-2002 INTL FCStone reorganization overhang considerations.

[SNEX] StoneX Group Thesis 2026: Multi-Asset Brokerage Drives Global Risk Management Capital Return

Key Takeaways

SNEX FY2025 (September year-end) revenue ~$3.65-3.95B (+10-15% YoY) with adj. EPS ~$10.50-11.50 reflecting continued post-2024 ~~$3.65-3.95B aggregate Multi-Asset Brokerage + Risk Management revenue (~~$1.40-1.55B aggregate Commercial + Institutional + ~$1.0-1.1B aggregate Securities + ~$0.55-0.65B aggregate Payments + ~$0.55-0.65B aggregate Retail) under continued Founder + Chairman + CEO Sean O'Connor since 2002 (~23-year founding tenure as StoneX CEO; selected primary post-2002 founding architect via reorganization of FCStone Group + post-2020 INTL FCStone-Gain Capital merger creating StoneX Group).
Commercial + Institutional + Securities Multi-Asset Brokerage Pipeline (~$2.4-2.65B revenue): ~$2.4-2.65B aggregate Commercial + Institutional + Securities revenue (~65%+ revenue mix); selected primary Commercial + Institutional FX + Commodities + Interest Rates + Securities Brokerage + selected various aggregate Risk Management + Hedging Advisory + selected various aggregate ~50,000+ aggregate global commercial + institutional clients + selected various aggregate ~9-10K+ aggregate global institutional accounts + selected various aggregate Producer + Consumer + Hedger commodity + FX risk management exposure + selected various aggregate ~$1.5-2.0T aggregate annual notional trading volume.
Payments + Retail + Cross-Border + FX Pipeline: selected continued post-2020 selected various aggregate Payments aggregate ~$0.55-0.65B aggregate revenue (~16%+ aggregate revenue mix; selected primary post-2020 Cross-Border Payments + B2B Payments + Charity + NGO Payments + selected various aggregate ~140-150 aggregate global currencies + selected various aggregate Cross-Border + FX Payments specialty) + selected various aggregate Retail aggregate ~$0.55-0.65B aggregate revenue (~16% aggregate revenue mix; selected primary post-2020 Gain Capital Forex.com + StoneX One + selected various aggregate Retail FX + CFD Brokerage).
Capital position + balance sheet: ~$0 dividend (no dividend track post-2002 IPO); ~$50-150M aggregate FY2025 buybacks (selected post-2024 active capital return); aggregate capital return ~$50-150M FY2025 (Capex-light + organic growth focus); net leverage ~~moderate (~~$0.7-0.9B aggregate Subordinated Debt + Notes); investment-grade BB-/Ba2 credit rating; ~33-34M diluted shares; weighted average debt maturity ~5-6 years.
FY2026 thesis catalysts: Commercial + Institutional + Securities Multi-Asset Brokerage pipeline (~$2.4-2.65B + ~50,000+ commercial clients + ~~$1.5-2.0T notional volume) + Payments + Retail + Cross-Border + FX pipeline (~~$1.10-1.30B aggregate combined) + selected ~140-150 aggregate global currencies + selected post-2020 INTL FCStone-Gain Capital merger continued integration synergies.

Company Background

StoneX Group Inc. (NASDAQ: SNEX) is one of the largest US specialty global Multi-Asset Brokerage + Risk Management financial services companies, founded 1924 as Farmers Commodity Corporation by farmer cooperatives in Iowa (~101-year heritage; selected primary post-2002 reorganization as INTL FCStone via FCStone Group + International Assets Holding Corporation merger; selected primary post-2020 INTL FCStone-Gain Capital merger creating StoneX Group). Selected post-2007 NASDAQ listing via INTL FCStone post-FCStone Group + International Assets Holding Corporation 2002 reorganization; selected post-2002-2025 selected various aggregate ~$3B+ aggregate cumulative tuck-in M&A platform expansion (selected post-2020 ~$236M+ Gain Capital Holdings acquisition (Forex.com + StoneX One Retail FX) + selected post-2022 Cotton Distributors Inc. + selected various aggregate global Multi-Asset Brokerage acquisitions); selected post-2002 Sean O'Connor founding tenure (~23-year founding architect + Chairman + CEO); HQ New York City; ~3,500-4,000 employees globally; selected ~50,000+ aggregate global commercial + institutional clients across selected various aggregate North America + Europe + Asia Pacific + Latin America footprint.

SNEX operates 4 primary segments: Commercial ~~36%+ revenue (~~$1.30-1.45B), Institutional + Securities ~~30%+ revenue (~~$1.10-1.20B), Payments ~~16%+ revenue (~~$0.55-0.65B), Retail ~~16%+ revenue (~~$0.55-0.65B). Geographic mix: North America ~55%+ + Europe ~25% + Asia Pacific ~15% + Latin America + selected various aggregate ~5%.

Capital position: ~$0 dividend (no dividend track post-2002 IPO); ~$50-150M aggregate FY2025 buybacks (selected post-2024 active capital return); aggregate capital return ~$50-150M FY2025; net leverage ~~moderate (~~$0.7-0.9B aggregate Subordinated Debt + Notes); non-investment grade BB-/Ba2 credit rating; ~33-34M diluted shares; weighted average debt maturity ~5-6 years.

Commercial + Institutional + Securities Multi-Asset Brokerage Pipeline (~$2.4-2.65B Revenue)

The Commercial + Institutional + Securities Multi-Asset Brokerage pipeline is SNEX's foundation thesis: ~$2.4-2.65B aggregate Commercial + Institutional + Securities revenue (~65%+ revenue mix) + selected primary Commercial + Institutional FX + Commodities + Interest Rates + Securities Brokerage + selected various aggregate Risk Management + Hedging Advisory + selected various aggregate ~50,000+ aggregate global commercial + institutional clients + selected various aggregate ~9-10K+ aggregate global institutional accounts + selected various aggregate Producer + Consumer + Hedger commodity + FX risk management exposure + selected various aggregate ~$1.5-2.0T aggregate annual notional trading volume. Selected primary SNEX platform: ~50,000+ commercial + institutional clients + Multi-Asset Brokerage (FX + Commodities + Interest Rates + Securities).

FY2025 Multi-Asset Brokerage dynamics ($2.4-2.65B aggregate revenue): selected continued post-2024 ~+10-15% aggregate Multi-Asset Brokerage revenue growth (cyclical commodity + FX volatility + selected various aggregate ~50,000+ commercial + institutional clients + selected various aggregate ~9-10K+ institutional accounts) + ~$2.4-2.65B aggregate Commercial + Institutional + Securities revenue + selected various aggregate ~$1.5-2.0T aggregate annual notional trading volume + selected various aggregate Producer + Consumer + Hedger risk management exposure. Selected post-2024 ~$3.50-5.50 incremental annual EPS contribution as Commercial + Institutional + Securities Multi-Asset Brokerage pipeline drives incremental margin (post-2020 INTL FCStone-Gain Capital merger continued integration synergies).

FY2026 catalyst: continued Commercial + Institutional + Securities Multi-Asset Brokerage pipeline + ~$3.50-5.50 incremental annual EPS contribution under continued Sean O'Connor leadership (~23-year founding tenure). Selected aggregate ~$2.6-2.85B aggregate Commercial + Institutional + Securities revenue + selected various ~+5-10% aggregate Multi-Asset Brokerage growth + selected various aggregate ~52,000+ commercial + institutional clients + selected various aggregate ~10-11K+ institutional accounts + selected various aggregate ~$1.6-2.2T aggregate annual notional trading volume. Risks: Marex Group + ED&F Man + ADM Investor Services + Phillip Capital + Morgan Stanley + Goldman Sachs + JPMorgan + Citigroup + selected various aggregate global Multi-Asset Brokerage competitive displacement + selected various aggregate commodity + FX volatility cycle considerations + Federal Reserve interest rate cycle considerations.

Payments + Retail + Cross-Border + FX Pipeline

The Payments + Retail + Cross-Border + FX pipeline is SNEX's primary growth thesis: selected continued post-2020 selected various aggregate Payments aggregate ~$0.55-0.65B aggregate revenue (~16%+ aggregate revenue mix; selected primary post-2020 Cross-Border Payments + B2B Payments + Charity + NGO Payments + selected various aggregate ~140-150 aggregate global currencies + selected various aggregate Cross-Border + FX Payments specialty) + selected various aggregate Retail aggregate ~$0.55-0.65B aggregate revenue (~16% aggregate revenue mix; selected primary post-2020 Gain Capital Forex.com + StoneX One + selected various aggregate Retail FX + CFD Brokerage).

FY2025 Payments + Retail dynamics: selected primary post-2020 Cross-Border Payments + B2B Payments + Charity + NGO Payments + selected various aggregate ~$0.55-0.65B aggregate Payments revenue + selected various aggregate ~140-150 aggregate global currencies + selected primary post-2020 Gain Capital Forex.com + StoneX One Retail FX + ~$0.55-0.65B aggregate Retail revenue. Selected post-2024 ~$1.50-2.50 incremental annual EPS contribution as Payments + Retail + Cross-Border + FX pipeline drives incremental margin (post-2020 Gain Capital integration + selected various aggregate Cross-Border Payments + B2B continued growth).

FY2026 catalyst: continued Payments + Retail + Cross-Border + FX pipeline + ~$1.50-2.50 incremental EPS contribution. Selected aggregate ~$0.60-0.70B aggregate Payments revenue + selected various aggregate ~$0.60-0.70B aggregate Retail revenue + selected various aggregate ~150-160 aggregate global currencies + selected various aggregate Cross-Border + B2B Payments continued growth + selected various aggregate Forex.com + StoneX One Retail FX + CFD Brokerage. Risks: Wise + Western Union + MoneyGram + Remitly + Convera (formerly Western Union Business Solutions) + Forex.com + IG Group + selected various aggregate Cross-Border Payments + Retail FX competitive displacement + selected various aggregate Federal Reserve interest rate cycle considerations + post-2020 Gain Capital integration considerations.

Capital Position + Balance Sheet

Capital position + balance sheet: ~$0 dividend (no dividend track post-2002 IPO) + ~$50-150M aggregate FY2025 buybacks (selected post-2024 active capital return) + aggregate capital return ~$50-150M FY2025 (Capex-light + organic growth focus) + net leverage ~~moderate (~~$0.7-0.9B aggregate Subordinated Debt + Notes) + non-investment grade BB-/Ba2 credit rating + ~33-34M diluted shares + weighted average debt maturity ~5-6 years.

FY2026 catalyst: continued ~$50-200M aggregate annual capital return + selected continued ~$0 aggregate annual dividend + selected continued ~moderate net leverage + selected various aggregate ~$50-200M aggregate annual buybacks + selected various aggregate ~$2.0-2.5B aggregate stockholders' equity + selected various aggregate post-2020 INTL FCStone-Gain Capital merger continued integration synergies. Selected ~$0 aggregate annual dividend + selected non-investment grade BB-/Ba2 credit rating support continued Multi-Asset Brokerage + Payments + Retail organic + tuck-in M&A capacity.

Key Core Metrics

FY2025 (September year-end) revenue ~$3.65-3.95B (+10-15% YoY) vs $3.39B FY2024; adj. EPS ~$10.50-11.50
4 segments: Commercial ~36%+ ($1.30-1.45B) + Institutional + Securities ~30%+ ($1.10-1.20B) + Payments ~16%+ ($0.55-0.65B) + Retail ~16%+ ($0.55-0.65B)
Geographic mix: North America ~55%+ + Europe ~25% + Asia Pacific ~15% + Latin America + selected various aggregate ~5%
~50,000+ aggregate global commercial + institutional clients
~9-10K+ aggregate global institutional accounts
~$1.5-2.0T aggregate annual notional trading volume
Multi-Asset: FX + Commodities + Interest Rates + Securities Brokerage
Payments: ~140-150 global currencies; Cross-Border + B2B + Charity + NGO Payments
Retail: post-2020 Gain Capital Forex.com + StoneX One Retail FX + CFD Brokerage
Net leverage ~~moderate (~~$0.7-0.9B Subordinated Debt + Notes)
~33-34M diluted shares; ~$50-150M total capital return FY2025
~$0 dividend (no dividend track post-2002 IPO)
~$50-150M aggregate FY2025 buybacks
Non-investment grade BB-/Ba2 credit rating
~$2.0-2.5B aggregate stockholders' equity

Market Evaluation

SNEX FY2026 market evaluation: at ~$95-115 share price + ~33-34M diluted shares = ~$3.2-3.9B market cap; ~$0 aggregate annual dividend (no dividend track). Selected primary SNEX peers: Marex Group (MRX, ~$2-3B Mcap; competitor in commodity brokerage) + ED&F Man (private) + ADM Investor Services + Phillip Capital + Morgan Stanley (MS, ~$140-160B; institutional brokerage) + Goldman Sachs (GS, ~$160-180B) + JPMorgan (JPM, ~$650-700B) + Citigroup (C, ~$120-140B) + Wise (WISE.LON; Cross-Border Payments) + Western Union (WU, ~$3-4B) + IG Group (IG.LON; Retail FX) + selected various aggregate global Multi-Asset Brokerage + Cross-Border Payments + Retail FX companies. Selected SNEX ~9-11x P/E + selected ~5-6x EV/EBITDA + selected ~$0 dividend yield + selected aggregate ~$3.85-4.15B aggregate FY2026 revenue + selected aggregate ~$11.50-13.00 aggregate FY2026 EPS + selected aggregate ~$50-200M aggregate FY2026 capital return + selected aggregate Commercial + Institutional + Securities + Payments + Retail pipeline. FY2026 base case: ~$3.85-4.15B aggregate revenue + ~$11.50-13.00 adj. EPS + ~$50-200M aggregate capital return. Bull case: commodity + FX volatility tailwinds + Cross-Border Payments + B2B continued growth + Retail FX recovery + post-2020 INTL FCStone-Gain Capital merger continued integration synergies + Federal Reserve interest rate cycle drives ~$4.05-4.35B aggregate revenue + ~$12.50-14.00 EPS. Bear case: Marex Group + ED&F Man + ADM Investor Services + Phillip Capital + Morgan Stanley + Goldman Sachs + JPMorgan + Citigroup + Wise + Western Union + IG Group competitive intensification + commodity + FX volatility cycle weakness + Federal Reserve interest rate cuts + Cross-Border Payments + Retail FX cycle considerations + post-2020 Gain Capital integration considerations + Sean O'Connor founder transition continuity considerations + post-2002 INTL FCStone reorganization overhang considerations drives ~$3.65-3.85B revenue + ~$9.50-10.50 EPS. The thesis depends on Commercial + Institutional + Securities Multi-Asset Brokerage + Payments + Retail + Cross-Border + FX pipeline + ~50,000+ commercial clients.