SANFinancial ServicesBanking·Sep 3, 2026·6 min read

[SAN] Santander Thesis 2026: Return on Equity Leads European Banking Peers

Banco Santander FY25 (Dec 31, 2025) at $119.89B revenue (-8% USD; underlying cc growth +7% NII / +6% fees Q3). Net income $14.10B (+12%); Diluted EPS $0.87 (+13%). Q3 record quarterly profit €3.5B; 9M2025 best ever. RoTE 16.1%; CET1 13.1%. Customer base 178M (+7M YoY). Loan growth +16.2% cc / +11.7% reported. Q4 segments: Spain net profit €4.1B (loan growth +8%), Mexico €1.4B Q4 (25.6% market share), Turkey €805M, South America €726M (Peru+Colombia growth, Argentina deteriorating), Rest of Business €627M. €10B accelerated buyback target through 2025-2026. Wealth profit +21% (RoTE ~70%); CIB profit +10% (Global Markets +27%); Payments profit >60%.

SAN: FY25 Deep Dive

FY25 revenue $119.9B (-7.7%) — net income $14.10B (+12%); record 9M2025 profit. Diluted EPS $0.87. RoTE 16.1%. CET1 13.1%. Customer base +7M YoY to 178M. €10B accelerated buyback program 2025-2026. Q3 record quarterly profit €3.5B; ONE Transformation driving simpler integrated model.

Key Takeaways

Banco Santander closed fiscal 2025 (calendar year ended December 31, 2025) at $119.9 billion of revenue, down 7.7% YoY (reported in USD; underlying constant-currency growth was positive — +7% NII / +6% fees QoQ in Q3 commentary). Net income reached $14.10 billion, up 12% from $12.57B FY24 — driven by ONE Transformation efficiency gains + revenue growth across global businesses. Diluted EPS $0.87 (vs $0.77 FY24, +13%). Operating income $18.68B. The structural read in Q3 FY25: Q3 was a record quarterly profit at €3.5 billion, with 9M2025 the best ever for the bank. Drivers: NII +18% YoY (+7% QoQ in cc); fees +15% YoY (+6% QoQ); customer base +7M YoY to 178 million total customers; CET1 ratio at 13.1% (solid balance sheet); ROTE 16.1%. Strategic move: announced accelerated share buyback target of at least €10 billion through 2025-2026. Capital allocation framework: dividends + buybacks scaling. Total debt $496.6B (typical for global G-SIB bank). Sell-side coverage in Feb-April 2026 covered events: limited captures — broader analyst universe is large; specific actions in window not robustly captured in dataset.


Main business structure

Santander reports five global business areas (the ONE Transformation framework):

Global BusinessFY25 Q3 Profit HighlightStrategic Focus
RetailProfit +high single-digit YoY; NII grew (ex-Argentina); fees +5%Mass-market deposits + lending
ConsumerProfit +6% YoY; NII growth + solid cost of riskConsumer finance + Openbank
CIB (Corporate & Investment Banking)Profit +10% YoY; Global Markets +27% revenueCorporate banking + capital markets
WealthProfit +21%; double-digit fee growthPrivate banking + asset management
PaymentsRevenue +double-digit; profit growth >60%PagoNxt EBITDA margin to 32%

ONE Transformation Strategy

Santander's structural shift toward a simpler, more integrated bank operating model:

  • Efficiency gains driving RoTE expansion
  • Customer base +7M YoY to 178M (+4%)
  • Enhanced customer experience via global platforms (Openbank, PagoNxt)
  • Q3 FY25: efficiency gains = 1.3pp improvement in cost-to-income ratio in Wealth (RoTE close to 70%)

Geographic Mix (FY25 Q4 detail)

GeographyFY25 Net ProfitNotable Q4
Spain€4.1B8% loan growth; Q4 profit >€1B; cost-to-income 33.1%
Mexico€1.4B Q4; 8% core revenue growth FY2525.6% market share; loan growth accel
Turkey€805MCost of risk 194bp; tax code change Q4
South America€726MPeru + Colombia growth; Argentina deteriorating
Rest of Business (CIB, Italy/Germany digital)€627MStrong activity, NII +15.9% YoY

Growth Drivers FY25

  • NII +18% YoY in 9M2025; +7% QoQ in cc
  • Fees +15% YoY; +6% QoQ
  • Loan growth +16.2% at constant euros (+11.7% reported)
  • Sustainable business: €97B channeled in 9M
  • Cost of risk stable at 135bp (better than guidance)

Capital Return

  • €10B accelerated buyback target through 2025-2026 (announced 2025)
  • Resuming share buyback + dividend trajectory
  • CET1 13.1% supports continued capital return + organic growth + selected M&A

Customer concentration. Highly diversified across 178M customers globally; primarily retail + SME + corporate.

Geographic mix. Brazil, Mexico, Spain, Argentina/Chile, UK, US the largest markets.

Scale anchors. ~213,000 employees globally. G-SIB designation. Operations in 140+ countries.


Key core metrics (3-year trend)

1. Revenue (USD reported reflects FX)

FY23FY24FY25
Revenue ($B)121.87129.91119.89
YoY (USD)+7%-8%
Underlying (cc)growthgrowth

USD-reported revenue declined on EUR weakening; underlying constant-currency growth was strongly positive.

2. Earnings

FY23FY24FY25
Operating income ($B)16.4619.0318.68
Net income ($B)11.0812.5714.10
Diluted EPS$0.65$0.77$0.87
RoTE16.1%

Net income +12% YoY; EPS +13%; RoTE 16.1% — among the highest in European banks.

3. Capital position

end-FY24end-FY25
CET1 Ratio~12.8%13.1%
Total debt ($B)483.4496.6

CET1 above 13% — solid for a G-SIB; supports the €10B buyback acceleration.

4. Capital allocation

FY24FY25
Buybacks ($M)4,789(within €10B 2025-2026 target)

The €10B 2025-2026 accelerated target represents ~5% of market cap deployed across two years — meaningful.


Market evaluation

Sell-side coverage (Feb-April 2026 covered events). Limited captures in window. Coverage is generally broad among European bank specialists.

Buy-side positioning. SAN is a core European bank holding paired with BBVA, BNP, ING. Trades at premium to discount-banking peers on Latin America emerging markets exposure + RoTE quality. Short interest below 1% of float.


FY25 corporate structure: ONE Transformation + €10B accelerated buyback

FY25 was the year Santander's ONE Transformation strategy delivered visibly: Q3 record quarterly profit €3.5B, 9M2025 best-ever profit, RoTE 16.1%, CET1 13.1%, customer base +7M to 178M. Net income $14.1B (+12%); EPS $0.87 (+13%). The accelerated €10B buyback through 2025-2026 target signals management's confidence in sustained FCF generation + capital allocation discipline. Wealth (RoTE ~70%), CIB (+10% profit, +27% Global Markets), Payments (>60% profit growth) the high-growth lines. Geographic diversification across Spain, Mexico, Brazil, UK, US provides cycle smoothing. The two FY26 watch items: (1) does the NII / fee growth pace sustain on tougher comparison + ECB rate cycle uncertainty; (2) does the €10B buyback execution stay on pace through CY26. The Q1 FY26 earnings print this week is the proximate event for measuring continued profit growth + buyback execution + Latin America + Europe trajectory.

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