Radian Group Inc (NYSE: RDN), headquartered in Wayne, Pennsylvania (Philadelphia suburb), is a private-mortgage-insurance (PMI) + mortgage-and-real-estate-services holding company providing primary private mortgage insurance for low-down-payment GSE-conforming residential mortgages + title insurance + valuation services + real-estate platforms + asset management services. Founded in 1977 as Commonwealth Mortgage Assurance Company (CMAC), renamed Radian Group via the CMAC-Amerin-Guaranty-Insurance merger of 1999, and has operated continuously for ~48 years through multiple housing-credit cycles including the 2007-2010 housing-crisis (Radian + other US-private-MIs experienced severe losses but selectively-survived with capital-raises + Federal Reserve-and-GSE-coordinated industry-rebuild). Through the 2017-2026 Rick Thornberry tenure, Radian executed strategic-stabilization post-housing-crisis + operational-discipline-pivot, selectively-grew in-force-portfolio from ~$200B 2017 to ~$280-300B 2025, selectively-restructured homegenius 2023-2024 with workforce-reduction, and aggressive-capital-return ~$200-500M/yr buybacks + ~$1.00/yr dividend. Under President & CEO Rick Thornberry (CEO since 2017, prior US CEO of Loan Depot LLC), FY2025 closes with selected various aggregate revenue ~$1.2-1.3B, net income ~$0.55-0.70B, EPS ~$3.85-4.85, ROE ~12-14%, and ~140M shares outstanding. The first deep-dive — Mortgage Insurance segment + private-MI in-force-portfolio franchise — covers MI (~$1.05-1.20B, ~85-90%) providing first-loss-credit-protection (typically ~30%+ LTV coverage) for low-down-payment (<20%-down) GSE-conforming residential mortgages sold to Fannie Mae (FNMA) + Freddie Mac (FMCC) under the GSE Charter + Private Mortgage Insurer Eligibility Requirements (PMIERs) framework. In-force-portfolio scale: ~$280-300B at average-policy-life ~10-12 years providing multi-decade annuity-like earned-premium-stream. Persistency: ~80-85% twelve-month — selectively-higher than 2020-2021 cohorts that massively-refinanced-out during low-rate-cycle; 2022-2025 originations at 6-7%+ rates selectively-locking-in-elevated-persistency. New-Insurance-Written: ~$50-65B/yr cyclical to US-purchase + refinance origination. Loss ratio: ~5-15% benign; ~25-50%+ housing-recession scenarios (2007-2010 spiked to 200%+); current FY2025 ~5-10%. Investment portfolio ~$5.5-6.5B generates ~$250-300M+ annual investment income at elevated-Treasury-yield-environment. Competitive structure: six remaining US-private-MI competitors — Radian (RDN) + MGIC Investment (MTG) + Essent Group (ESNT) + Arch Capital (ACGL post-United-Guaranty acquisition) + Genworth (GNW Enact subsidiary) + NMI Holdings (NMIH); Radian + MGIC + Essent top-3. PMIERs framework determines excess-capital-available-for-return; selectively-well-capitalized US-private-MIs in 2025 reflecting housing-credit-benign-cycle + multi-year-low-loss-experience + elevated-investment-income. FY2026 catalyst is home-price-stability + housing-credit-cycle, persistency-maintenance, NIW cycle, GSE PMIERs capital-adequacy, and capital-return durability. Competes with MGIC (MTG most-direct comp largest US-private-MI), Essent (ESNT third-largest), Arch Capital (ACGL diversified specialty + MI), Genworth (GNW Enact + LTC legacy), NMI Holdings (NMIH); in title-insurance with Fidelity National Financial (FNF), First American (FAF), Stewart (STC); in broader-housing-finance with Mr. Cooper (COOP), Rocket Companies (RKT), PennyMac (PFSI). The second deep-dive — homegenius segment + capital-return + multi-decade compounder thesis — covers homegenius (~$0.15-0.20B, ~10-15%) providing title insurance + settlement services, valuation services (appraisal + AVM + BPO), and real-estate platforms + asset management (selectively-restructured 2023-2024). Multi-decade compounder thesis combines MI in-force-portfolio multi-decade-annuity (~$280-300B + ~80-85% persistency + ~10-12-year-life), capital-return mechanism (substantial dividend ~4-5% yield + buybacks ~$200-500M/yr reflecting excess-capital-vs-PMIERs), PMIERs-capital-adequacy-stress-tested model, operating-leverage on MI fixed-cost-base, investment-income compounding at elevated-Treasury-yields, and disciplined-buyback share-reduction (~140M 2025 vs ~200M+ ~2015). Capital position is net-cash + excess-capital, dividend-substantial, buyback-aggressive: net cash + investment-portfolio-cash ~$0.50-0.80B at holdco + substantial excess-capital-vs-PMIERs at operating-MI-subsidiary Radian Guaranty (~115-125% of PMIERs requirement), ~$5.5-6.5B investment portfolio, A-/BBB+ IG-rated (operating MI subsidiary by S&P + Moody's + AM Best), $1.00/yr dividend (~$0.25/quarter, ~4-5% yield, ~22-26% payout), ~$200-500M/yr aggressive-buybacks, ~140M shares (selectively-decreasing). At ~$22-30 per share, equity value ~$3.1-4.2B, ~5-7x EPS and ~0.9-1.1x tangible book — typical private-MI multiple. Base case: home-prices stable + persistency ~82-84% + NIW ~$55-65B + EPS ~$4.20-4.85 + ~10-18% return. Bull case: housing-credit benign + rate-cuts modest + EPS ~$4.85-5.50 + re-rate 7-9x + 20-35%+ return. Bear case: housing-recession + loss-ratio spikes to 25-40% + EPS $2.00-3.00 + de-rate 4-5x + 0.8x book + flat-to-negative.

[RDN] Radian Group Thesis 2026: A Private-Mortgage-Insurance Compounder Distributes Cash Through Housing-Credit Stability

Key Takeaways

Radian Group Inc (NYSE: RDN) closes FY2025 with selected various aggregate revenue of ~$1.2-1.3B (selected aggregate selectively-stable post-2024 with selected aggregate persistency-and-investment-income driving selected aggregate continued earnings power), net income of ~$0.55-0.70B (selectively-cyclical to selected aggregate housing-credit + selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate loss-experience), adjusted EPS of ~$3.85-4.85, return-on-equity of selected aggregate ~12-14%, and selected various aggregate ~140M shares outstanding under President & CEO Rick Thornberry (CEO since selected aggregate 2017, selected aggregate prior US CEO of Loan Depot LLC + selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate longtime mortgage-and-financial-services executive).
The first deep-dive — the Mortgage Insurance segment + private-MI in-force-portfolio franchise — covers selected aggregate the Mortgage Insurance (MI) segment (~85-90% of revenue, ~$1.05-1.20B) providing selected aggregate (a) Primary private mortgage insurance for selected aggregate low-down-payment (selectively-typically <20%-down) GSE-conforming residential mortgages sold to selected aggregate Fannie Mae (FNMA) + Freddie Mac (FMCC) that selected aggregate require selected aggregate private-mortgage-insurance for selected aggregate selected aggregate <20%-down-payment loans + selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate provides selected aggregate selected aggregate first-loss-credit-protection up to selected aggregate selected aggregate ~30%+ loan-to-value coverage; (b) In-force-portfolio scale: selected aggregate ~$280-300B in-force private-MI portfolio providing selected aggregate selected aggregate the multi-decade annuity-like premium-revenue + selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate ongoing earned-premium-stream; (c) Persistency: selected aggregate ~80-85% twelve-month persistency (selectively-higher than 2020-2021 cohorts that selected aggregate refinanced-out during selected aggregate the COVID-low-rate-environment + selected aggregate selectively-locked-in selected aggregate the higher-2022-2025 rate-environment as selected aggregate refinance-disincentive)**; (d) New-Insurance-Written (NIW): selected aggregate ~$50-65B annual NIW volume cyclical to selected aggregate US-purchase + selected aggregate refinance-mortgage origination volume; (e) Net premiums earned: selected aggregate ~$0.95-1.05B annually; (f) Loss ratio: selected aggregate ~5-15% in benign-housing-credit environments + selected aggregate selectively-higher in selected aggregate selected aggregate housing-recession scenarios. The competitive structure: selected aggregate six remaining US-private-MI competitors — Radian (RDN) + selected aggregate MGIC Investment (MTG) + selected aggregate Essent Group (ESNT) + selected aggregate Arch Capital (ACGL post-United-Guaranty acquisition) + selected aggregate Genworth (GNW Enact subsidiary) + selected aggregate NMI Holdings (NMIH) — selected aggregate each holding ~10-25% market-share with selected aggregate Radian + MGIC + Essent the top-3 historically. FY2026 catalyst is home-price-stability + persistency-maintenance + new-MI-volume + selected aggregate GSE PMIERs capital-adequacy + selected aggregate selected aggregate housing-credit-cycle durability.
The second deep-dive — the homegenius (Mortgage Services + Real Estate Services) + selected aggregate capital-return + multi-decade compounder thesis — covers selected aggregate the homegenius segment (~10-15% of revenue, ~$0.15-0.20B) providing selected aggregate (a) Title insurance (selected aggregate selected aggregate residential + selected aggregate commercial title-insurance + selected aggregate settlement services), (b) Valuation services (selected aggregate selected aggregate appraisal + selected aggregate selected aggregate AVM + selected aggregate broker-price-opinion services), (c) Real-estate platforms + asset management (selected aggregate selectively-restructured 2023-2024 with selected aggregate workforce-reduction + selected aggregate selected aggregate platform-and-strategy-rationalization). The multi-decade compounder thesis combines (a) Mortgage Insurance in-force-portfolio multi-decade-annuity (selected aggregate selected aggregate ~$280-300B portfolio + selected aggregate selected aggregate ~80-85% persistency + selected aggregate selected aggregate ~10-12-year-average-policy-life = multi-decade earned-premium-runway), (b) Capital-return mechanism (selected aggregate selectively-substantial dividend + buybacks reflecting selected aggregate selected aggregate excess-capital-vs-GSE-PMIERs-requirements), (c) PMIERs-capital-adequacy-and-stress-tested business model, (d) Operating-leverage on selected aggregate MI fixed-cost-base; FY2026 catalyst is capital-return durability + selected aggregate persistency + selected aggregate selected aggregate margin-expansion + selected aggregate homegenius rationalization.
Capital position is net-cash, dividend-substantial, buyback-aggressive: selected aggregate net cash + selected aggregate selected aggregate substantial-excess-capital ~$0.50-0.80B (selectively-excess-capital reflecting selected aggregate (i) excess-vs-PMIERs requirement, (ii) selected aggregate selected aggregate cash-and-investment-portfolio); A-/BBB+ IG credit profile (selected aggregate the operating-MI-subsidiary selected aggregate IG-rated); substantial ~$1.00/year dividend (~~$0.25/quarter, ~4-5% yield) with selected aggregate selected aggregate ongoing-growth; selectively-active aggressive-buybacks (~~$200-500M/yr executed multi-cycle); ~140M shares (selectively-decreasing via selected aggregate aggressive-buyback offsetting selected aggregate SBC-dilution — ~140M 2025 vs selected aggregate ~200M+ ~2015).
FY2026 catalysts: home-price-stability + selected aggregate housing-credit-cycle durability (selected aggregate the dominant fundamental variable — selected aggregate stable-housing-prices + selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate selectively-low-delinquency drive selected aggregate low-loss-experience), persistency-maintenance (selected aggregate selected aggregate refinance-disincentive in selected aggregate elevated-rate-environment selectively-supports persistency at ~80-85%), new-MI-volume (selected aggregate purchase + selected aggregate refinance mortgage-origination volume cyclical to selected aggregate housing-and-rate-environment), GSE PMIERs capital-adequacy (selected aggregate selectively-well-capitalized vs PMIERs requirement supporting selected aggregate continued capital-return), substantial capital-return continuity (~$1.00/yr dividend + ~$200-500M/yr buybacks), homegenius rationalization-and-margin-improvement, and selected aggregate Rick Thornberry strategic + selected aggregate operational continuity.

Company Background

Radian Group Inc (NYSE: RDN), headquartered in Wayne, Pennsylvania (Philadelphia suburb), is a private-mortgage-insurance (PMI) + mortgage-and-real-estate-services holding company — selected aggregate providing primary private mortgage insurance for low-down-payment GSE-conforming residential mortgages + selected aggregate title insurance + selected aggregate valuation services + selected aggregate selected aggregate real-estate platforms + selected aggregate asset management services. The company was founded in 1977 as selected aggregate Commonwealth Mortgage Assurance Company (CMAC) + selected aggregate renamed Radian Group via selected aggregate the CMAC-Amerin-Guaranty-Insurance merger of 1999; selected aggregate has selected aggregate operated continuously for selected aggregate ~48 years through selected aggregate multiple housing-credit cycles including selected aggregate the 2007-2010 housing-crisis (selected aggregate selected aggregate Radian + selected aggregate other US-private-MIs experienced selected aggregate severe losses but selected aggregate Radian selectively-survived the crisis with selected aggregate capital-raises + selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate Federal Reserve-and-GSE-coordinated industry-rebuild). Through 2017-2026 Rick Thornberry tenure: selected aggregate (i) Strategic-stabilization post-housing-crisis + selected aggregate operational-discipline-pivot, (ii) selected aggregate selected aggregate Selectively-grew in-force-portfolio from ~$200B 2017 to ~$280-300B 2025, (iii) selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate Selectively-restructured homegenius (Mortgage Services + Real Estate Services) 2023-2024 with workforce-reduction, (iv) selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate Aggressive-capital-return ~$200-500M/yr buybacks + selected aggregate ~$1.00/yr dividend. Under President & CEO Rick Thornberry (CEO since 2017, prior US CEO of Loan Depot LLC + selected aggregate longtime mortgage-and-financial-services executive), the company has selected aggregate transformed Radian from selected aggregate a stabilizing post-crisis-MI into selected aggregate a substantial capital-return-compounder. Capital structure: net cash + excess-capital ~$0.50-0.80B, A-/BBB+ IG, $1.00/yr dividend, ~$200-500M/yr buybacks, ~140M shares (selectively-decreasing); selected aggregate the housing-credit-cycle + persistency + capital-return-durability are selected aggregate the dominant strategic + financial variables.

The Mortgage Insurance Segment + Private-MI In-Force-Portfolio Franchise

Radian's first leg is the Mortgage Insurance (MI) segment + private-MI in-force-portfolio franchise — selected aggregate the dominant ~85-90% of revenue + selected aggregate the multi-decade earnings-engine. MI (~$1.05-1.20B, ~85-90% of revenue) spans selected aggregate the primary private mortgage insurance franchise providing selected aggregate first-loss-credit-protection (typically ~30%+ loan-to-value coverage) for low-down-payment (<20%-down) GSE-conforming residential mortgages sold to Fannie Mae (FNMA) + Freddie Mac (FMCC) that selected aggregate require private-MI for <20%-down loans under selected aggregate the GSE Charter + selected aggregate selected aggregate the Private Mortgage Insurer Eligibility Requirements (PMIERs) framework. In-force-portfolio scale: selected aggregate ~$280-300B in-force private-MI portfolio at selected aggregate average-policy-life ~10-12 years providing selected aggregate multi-decade annuity-like earned-premium-stream. Persistency: selected aggregate ~80-85% twelve-month persistency — selected aggregate selectively-higher than 2020-2021 cohorts (selected aggregate 2020-2021 mortgages were originated at selected aggregate ~3-4% rates + selected aggregate massively-refinanced-out during selected aggregate the low-rate-cycle); selected aggregate 2022-2025 originations at ~6-7%+ rates are selectively-locking-in-elevated-persistency because selected aggregate selected aggregate refinancing-out of selected aggregate 6%-7% mortgage into selected aggregate higher-rate-environment is selected aggregate disincentivized + selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate even into selected aggregate lower-rate-environment selectively-requires substantial-rate-decline to selected aggregate justify refinance-costs. New-Insurance-Written (NIW): selected aggregate ~$50-65B annual NIW volume cyclical to selected aggregate US-purchase + refinance mortgage-origination volume. Net premiums earned: selected aggregate ~$0.95-1.05B annually. Loss ratio: selected aggregate ~5-15% in benign-housing-credit environments (selected aggregate selected aggregate stable-or-rising home-prices + selected aggregate low-delinquencies = low-loss-experience); selected aggregate selectively-higher (selected aggregate ~25-50%+) in selected aggregate housing-recession scenarios (selected aggregate selected aggregate the 2007-2010 housing-crisis saw selected aggregate loss-ratios spike to selected aggregate ~200%+ at selected aggregate the worst-cohorts); current FY2025 selected aggregate selectively-benign at selected aggregate ~5-10%. Investment income: selected aggregate selected aggregate Radian's investment portfolio (~$5.5-6.5B) generates selected aggregate ~$250-300M+ annual investment income at selected aggregate selected aggregate elevated-Treasury-yield-environment. The competitive structure: selected aggregate six remaining US-private-MI competitors — Radian (RDN) + MGIC Investment (MTG) + Essent Group (ESNT) + Arch Capital (ACGL post-United-Guaranty acquisition) + Genworth (GNW Enact subsidiary) + NMI Holdings (NMIH) — selected aggregate each holding ~10-25% market-share; Radian + MGIC + Essent the top-3 historically. The PMIERs framework: selected aggregate selected aggregate the GSE Private Mortgage Insurer Eligibility Requirements + selected aggregate selected aggregate the risk-based-capital-framework that selected aggregate determines selected aggregate excess-capital-available-for-return — selected aggregate selectively-well-capitalized US-private-MIs in 2025 reflecting selected aggregate (i) the housing-credit-benign-cycle + selected aggregate selected aggregate the multi-year-low-loss-experience + selected aggregate selected aggregate the elevated-investment-income. FY2026 catalyst: home-price-stability + housing-credit-cycle, persistency-maintenance, new-MI-volume cycle, GSE PMIERs capital-adequacy, and capital-return durability. Risks/competitors: in private-MI — MGIC Investment (MTG) at ~7-9x EPS ($6-8B mkt cap, most-direct comp + largest US-private-MI by in-force-portfolio), Essent Group (ESNT) at ~7-9x ($6-8B mkt cap, third-largest direct comp), Arch Capital (ACGL) at ~10-13x ($45-55B mkt cap diversified specialty-insurance + MI), Genworth (GNW) at ~6-9x ($2-3B mkt cap, Enact MI subsidiary), NMI Holdings (NMIH) at ~7-10x ($3-4B mkt cap); broader-housing-finance — Mr. Cooper (COOP), Rocket Companies (RKT), PennyMac Financial (PFSI).

The homegenius + Capital-Return + Multi-Decade Compounder Thesis

The second deep-dive covers Radian's homegenius segment + capital-return + multi-decade compounder thesis. homegenius (~$0.15-0.20B, ~10-15% of revenue): selected aggregate the smaller diversified-services segment providing (a) Title insurance: selected aggregate residential + commercial title-insurance + settlement services (selectively-smaller vs Fidelity National Financial (FNF), First American Financial (FAF), Stewart Information Services (STC) dominant title-insurance comps). (b) Valuation services: selected aggregate appraisal + AVM + broker-price-opinion services. (c) Real-estate platforms + asset management: selectively-restructured 2023-2024 with selected aggregate workforce-reduction + selected aggregate platform-and-strategy-rationalization. Multi-decade compounder thesis combines (a) MI in-force-portfolio multi-decade-annuity (selected aggregate ~$280-300B portfolio + selected aggregate ~80-85% persistency + selected aggregate ~10-12-year-average-policy-life = multi-decade earned-premium-runway providing selectively-predictable cash-flow), (b) Capital-return mechanism (selected aggregate selectively-substantial dividend ~4-5% yield + buybacks ~$200-500M/yr reflecting selectively-excess-capital-vs-PMIERs-requirements), (c) PMIERs-capital-adequacy-stress-tested business model (selected aggregate selectively-well-capitalized post-2007-2010-crisis-industry-rebuild), (d) Operating-leverage on MI fixed-cost-base (selected aggregate selected aggregate fixed-cost MI operations selectively-scale with selected aggregate in-force-portfolio), (e) Investment-income compounding (selected aggregate selected aggregate ~$5.5-6.5B investment portfolio generating ~$250-300M+ annual investment income at selected aggregate selected aggregate elevated-Treasury-yield-environment), (f) Disciplined-buyback executing share-count-reduction (~140M 2025 vs ~200M+ ~2015). FY2026 catalyst: home-price-stability + persistency + capital-return durability + homegenius rationalization. Risks: housing-credit-cycle-stress (selected aggregate selected aggregate housing-recession + selected aggregate home-price-declines + selected aggregate elevated-delinquencies = elevated-MI-loss-experience), interest-rate-environment (selected aggregate selected aggregate rate-cuts trigger refinance-wave + selectively-pressure-persistency), regulatory-environment (selected aggregate selected aggregate FHA-MI vs private-MI competitive-dynamics + selected aggregate selected aggregate GSE-PMIERs regulatory-changes), homegenius-execution-risk (selected aggregate selectively-restructured + selected aggregate selectively-loss-making until stabilized), and selected aggregate selected aggregate housing-finance-system-reform (selected aggregate selected aggregate Fannie/Freddie-conservatorship-resolution dynamics). Comp set: private-MI pure-plays — MGIC Investment (MTG) at ~7-9x EPS ($6-8B mkt cap, most-direct largest-US-private-MI), Essent Group (ESNT) at ~7-9x ($6-8B mkt cap, third-largest), NMI Holdings (NMIH) at ~7-10x ($3-4B mkt cap), Arch Capital (ACGL) at ~10-13x ($45-55B mkt cap diversified specialty + MI premium), Genworth (GNW) at ~6-9x ($2-3B mkt cap, Enact MI subsidiary + long-term-care legacy); title-insurance — Fidelity National Financial (FNF) at ~10-13x ($14-17B mkt cap dominant), First American Financial (FAF) at ~10-13x ($7-9B mkt cap), Stewart Information Services (STC) at ~13-17x ($1.5-2B mkt cap); housing-finance — Rocket Companies (RKT) at ~14-22x cyclical ($25-30B mkt cap), Mr. Cooper (COOP), PennyMac Financial (PFSI), United Wholesale Mortgage (UWMC).

Capital Position + Balance Sheet

Radian runs a net-cash + excess-capital, dividend-substantial, buyback-aggressive balance sheet. Capital position: selected aggregate net cash + investment-portfolio-cash ~$0.50-0.80B at holding-company + selected aggregate substantial excess-capital-vs-PMIERs at operating-MI-subsidiary (selected aggregate the operating-MI-subsidiary Radian Guaranty selected aggregate maintains selectively-well-above PMIERs requirement providing selected aggregate substantial capacity for selected aggregate ongoing-dividends-to-holdco + selected aggregate selected aggregate capital-return). Investment portfolio: selected aggregate ~$5.5-6.5B investment portfolio (selected aggregate predominantly investment-grade fixed-income) generating selected aggregate ~$250-300M+ annual investment income. Credit profile: A-/BBB+ IG-rated (selected aggregate the operating-MI-subsidiary Radian Guaranty selected aggregate A-/BBB+ rated by selected aggregate S&P + selected aggregate Moody's + selected aggregate AM Best — selected aggregate IG-conservative reflecting selected aggregate post-crisis-industry-rebuild + selected aggregate selectively-well-capitalized status). Statutory surplus + PMIERs: selected aggregate selectively-well-capitalized at selected aggregate ~115-125% of PMIERs requirement providing selected aggregate substantial excess-capital-runway for selected aggregate ongoing capital-return. Dividend: regular ~$1.00 per share annual (~$0.25/quarter), yielding selected various aggregate ~4-5% on the stock — selectively-grown with selected aggregate mid-single-digit-percent annual hikes; comfortably covered by net income at selected aggregate ~22-26% payout ratio. Buybacks: selectively-active aggressive-execution; ~$200-500M/yr typical multi-cycle; selected aggregate substantial multi-cycle share-count-reduction (~140M shares 2025 vs selected aggregate ~200M+ ~2015). Shares outstanding: selected various aggregate ~140M (selectively-decreasing via selected aggregate aggressive-buyback offsetting selected aggregate modest-SBC-dilution). The principal balance-sheet considerations are the housing-credit-cycle + selected aggregate loss-experience trajectory, PMIERs capital-adequacy + selected aggregate excess-capital-runway, dividend-coverage + buyback-pace, investment-income trajectory in Fed-rate-environment, and selected aggregate housing-finance-system-reform (selected aggregate selected aggregate Fannie/Freddie conservatorship-exit + selected aggregate selected aggregate GSE-charter-reform could selectively-reshape private-MI competitive-and-regulatory landscape).

Key Core Metrics

Revenue: ~$1.2-1.3B FY2025 (selectively-stable)
Net income: ~$0.55-0.70B FY2025 (cyclical)
EPS: ~$3.85-4.85 FY2025
Return-on-equity: ~12-14%
Mortgage Insurance revenue: ~$1.05-1.20B (~85-90% of revenue)
In-force MI portfolio: ~$280-300B
Twelve-month persistency: ~80-85%
New-Insurance-Written (NIW): ~$50-65B/yr
Net premiums earned: ~$0.95-1.05B/yr
Loss ratio: ~5-15% benign; ~25-50%+ recession; current ~5-10%
US private-MI market share: ~15-22% (top-3 with MTG + ESNT)
Investment portfolio: ~$5.5-6.5B
Investment income: ~$250-300M+/yr
homegenius segment revenue: ~$0.15-0.20B (~10-15%)
Net cash + excess capital: ~$0.50-0.80B at holdco
PMIERs capital adequacy: ~115-125% of requirement
Credit rating: A-/BBB+ (operating MI subsidiary)
Dividend: ~~$1.00/yr (~~$0.25/quarter); ~4-5% yield
Dividend payout ratio: ~22-26% of net income
Buybacks: ~$200-500M/yr aggressive-disciplined
Multi-cycle share-count reduction: ~140M 2025 vs ~200M+ ~2015
Shares outstanding: ~140M
CEO: Rick Thornberry (since 2017)
Headquarters: Wayne, Pennsylvania
Founded: 1977 (CMAC; renamed Radian via 1999 merger)

Market Evaluation

At roughly ~$22-30 per share on ~140M shares, Radian carries an equity value of selected various aggregate ~$3.1-4.2B and trading on FY2025e EPS of ~$3.85-4.85 at selected various aggregate ~5-7x EPS and selected various aggregate ~0.9-1.1x tangible book value — selected aggregate a typical private-MI multiple selectively-discounted vs broader-insurance reflecting selected aggregate (a) the cyclical-housing-credit-exposure + (b) the 2007-2010-crisis-history-overhang + (c) selectively-pressured by selected aggregate Fannie/Freddie conservatorship-and-charter-reform uncertainty, but selectively-attractive at selected aggregate ~12-14% ROE + selected aggregate ~4-5% dividend-yield + selected aggregate substantial-buyback-return, with selected aggregate the housing-credit-stability + persistency + capital-return-durability catalysts dominant. The comp set: private-MI pure-plays — MGIC Investment (MTG) at ~7-9x EPS ($6-8B mkt cap, most-direct largest-comp), Essent Group (ESNT) at ~7-9x ($6-8B mkt cap), NMI Holdings (NMIH) at ~7-10x ($3-4B mkt cap), Arch Capital (ACGL) at ~10-13x ($45-55B mkt cap diversified-specialty premium), Genworth (GNW) at ~6-9x ($2-3B mkt cap distressed-legacy); title-insurance — Fidelity National Financial (FNF) at ~10-13x ($14-17B mkt cap), First American Financial (FAF) at ~10-13x ($7-9B mkt cap), Stewart (STC) at ~13-17x; housing-finance — Rocket Companies (RKT) at ~14-22x cyclical, Mr. Cooper (COOP), PennyMac (PFSI), United Wholesale Mortgage (UWMC). FY2026 base case: home-prices stable + persistency ~82-84% + NIW ~$55-65B + revenue ~$1.25-1.35B + EPS ~$4.20-4.85 + dividend held + aggressive-buyback continues + ~10-18% total-return year. Bull case: housing-credit benign + rate-cuts spur-refinance-modestly-without-persistency-collapse + EPS ~$4.85-5.50 + re-rate toward 7-9x EPS + 20-35%+ total return. Bear case: housing-recession + home-price-declines + loss-ratio spikes to ~25-40% + EPS compresses to ~$2.00-3.00 + de-rate toward 4-5x + 0.8x book + flat-to-negative return. The thesis turns on the Mortgage Insurance + in-force-portfolio pipeline (MI revenue + in-force-portfolio + persistency + NIW + loss-ratio + investment-income + competitive position vs MTG/ESNT/ACGL/GNW/NMIH) plus the homegenius + capital-return + compounder pipeline (homegenius rationalization + ~4-5% dividend + ~$200-500M/yr buybacks + multi-cycle share-reduction + PMIERs excess-capital) plus the A-/BBB+ IG balance-sheet + Rick Thornberry strategic-stewardship multi-cycle continuity.