Pacific Seabed Mining Near Guam Accelerates US Bid to Break China's Rare Earth Stranglehold
A bold plan to mine rare earth minerals from the Pacific seabed near Guam has emerged as the latest front in the intensifying US-China competition over critical minerals supplies. Sparked by Beijing's dominance—controlling over 80% of global rare earth processing—this initiative aims to tap undersea deposits to bolster American supply chains for EVs, defense tech, and renewables. With China restricting exports of key elements like gallium and germanium in recent years, the US is racing to diversify, and investors are eyeing the miners best positioned to deliver.
The macro shift gained urgency over the past 12 months, as US executive orders and Defense Department reviews emphasized onshoring critical minerals. Seabed resources in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone (CCZ) and near US territories like Guam offer polymetallic nodules rich in not just rare earth-adjacent metals like nickel and cobalt, but potential rare earths, decoupling the West from Chinese quotas. According to industry analyses, global rare earth demand could double by 2030, driven by magnets for EV motors and wind turbines. This Guam-adjacent push aligns with broader efforts, including DOE grants and IRA incentives, positioning select US-listed firms for outsized gains.
MP Materials: The Scaled US Rare Earth Producer Ready to Ramp
MP Materials (MP) operates the Mountain Pass mine in California, the only scaled rare earth operation in the US, producing concentrate that feeds global supply chains. While not directly seabed-focused, the Guam plan amplifies MP's role as the go-to domestic alternative amid US-China tensions—its output already represents ~15% of non-Chinese rare earth supply. As separation capabilities come online, MP could capture premium pricing for NdPr oxides critical for magnets.
| Metric | Value (TTM unless noted) |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $8.65B |
| Latest FY Revenue (2024 est.) | ~$253M (growth +35%) |
| EBITDA Margin | 1.2% |
| P/S Ratio | 31x |
| Price Return 1M/3M/YTD | +4% / +14% / +8% |
Verdict: Strong bull. MP's low-cost structure and US government backing make it the top pick for near-term revenue from diversification.
TMC the Metals Company: Pioneer in Pacific Deep-Sea Nodule Harvesting
TMC (TMC) holds exclusive rights to two of the largest polymetallic nodule contract areas in the Pacific's CCZ through Nauru and Tonga sponsorships, directly overlapping with Guam-proximate waters. While nodules yield nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese—key battery metals—their rare earth potential and US DSHMRA pathway position TMC as a seabed leader. Recent US executive orders expediting permitting under DSHMRA signal faster commercialization, countering China's battery metal refining monopoly.
| Metric | Value (TTM unless noted) |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $1.91B |
| Latest FY Revenue (2025) | $0 (pre-production) |
| EBITDA Margin | N/A |
| EV/Sales | N/A |
| Price Return 1M/3M/YTD | +4% / -10% / -10% |
Verdict: High-conviction bull. TMC's Pacific focus and US regulatory tailwinds offer explosive upside as first-mover in nodule extraction.
Rio Tinto: Diversified Giant with Rare Earth Upside
Rio Tinto (RIO), a global mining behemoth, is advancing rare earth projects like the La Grange deposit in Australia while exploring US opportunities. The Guam seabed push enhances RIO's critical minerals portfolio, including scandium and titanium, as it benefits from US ally supply chains and IRA-eligible production. With iron ore stability funding expansion, RIO bridges legacy assets to the rare earth boom.
| Metric | Value (TTM unless noted) |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $154.5B |
| Latest FY Revenue (2025) | $57.8B (growth +0.7%) |
| EBITDA Margin | 36.4% |
| P/E Ratio | 7.2x |
| Price Return 1M/3M/YTD | -7% / +16% / +10% |
Verdict: Solid bull. RIO's scale and valuation provide defensive exposure with growth from critical minerals.
American Resources Corp: Refining Play for Rare Earth Byproducts
American Resources (AREC) focuses on rare earth refining via proprietary chromatography, extracting elements from coal byproducts—a low-cost complement to seabed mining. As Guam initiatives spur demand for separated rare earths, AREC's ReElement tech positions it for US government contracts, reducing reliance on Chinese processing.
| Metric | Value (TTM unless noted) |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $245M |
| Latest FY Revenue (2024) | $0.38M (growth -64%) |
| EBITDA Margin | N/A |
| P/S Ratio | 1,692x |
| Price Return 1M/3M/YTD | +5% / +47% / +15% |
Verdict: Speculative bull. High-risk/high-reward as refining scales with domestic ore feeds.
NioCorp Developments: Niobium and Scandium for Defense Apps
NioCorp (NB) develops the Elk Creek project in Nebraska, targeting niobium, scandium, and titanium—critical minerals overlapping rare earth needs for defense and aerospace. The US-China rivalry elevates Elk Creek's strategic value, with potential DoD funding amid seabed diversification.
| Metric | Value (TTM unless noted) |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $657M |
| Latest FY Revenue | $0 (development stage) |
| EBITDA Margin | N/A |
| P/S Ratio | N/A |
| Price Return 1M/3M/YTD | -11% / -6% / -17% |
Verdict: Bull with catalysts. Financing milestones could ignite as US secures alloy metals.
Critical Metals Corp: Early-Stage Criticals Explorer
Critical Metals (CRML) targets rare earth and other criticals, with Greenland projects offering non-Chinese supply. Seabed momentum indirectly boosts explorers like CRML via heightened M&A and funding for US-aligned assets.
| Metric | Value (TTM unless noted) |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $818M |
| Latest FY Revenue (2025) | $0.56M (growth +375%) |
| EBITDA Margin | -8,467% |
| P/S Ratio | 1,459x |
| Price Return 1M/3M/YTD | -2% / +26% / +12% |
Verdict: Speculative. Lottery ticket for acquisition in the rare earth rush.
Ranked Conviction: The Seabed Rare Earth Plays
- MP Materials – Proven production, immediate beneficiary.2. TMC – Direct Pacific seabed exposure.3. Rio Tinto – Scale and value.4. American Resources – Refining edge.5. NioCorp – Defense niche.6. Critical Metals – High-risk explorer.
This thesis hinges on policy execution; watch ISA exploitation regulations, NOAA permits under DSHMRA, and rare earth spot prices above $100/kg NdPr. Risks include environmental lawsuits delaying seabed ops and China flooding markets with cheap supply. Monitor Q2 earnings for guidance updates and DoD contracts.