O'Reilly 2025-26: Comp +4.7%, FY26 Comp Guide 3-5%
FY25 revenue $17.78B (+6.4%); Op income $3.46B (+6.4%); NI $2.54B (+6.3%); EPS $2.97 (+10%). Comp store sales +4.7% (high end of revised guide). Q4 comp +5.6%, EPS $0.71 (+13%). FY26 guide: comp +3-5%, capex $1.3-$1.4B, GM 51.5-52%, EPS $3.10-$3.20 (+6.1%), FCF $1.8-$2.1B.
Key takeaways
- +4.7% comparable store sales — high end of revised guide. Q4 +5.6% comps with revenue $4.5B. Total sales +6.4% to $17.78B. Continues O'Reilly's multi-year above-market comp performance.
- Operating margin held at 19.5% — flat YoY. Industry-leading margin at scale. Pricing power from professional installer customer base + DIY mix discipline + cost-to-serve advantage.
- Q4 13% EPS growth on +5.6% comps + buyback shrink. $0.71 vs prior year $0.62. Capital return continues; FY25 buyback $-2.10B (consistent pace).
- FY26 guide is a step-down on comps but stable on margin. Comp +3-5% (vs +4.7% FY25), GM 51.5-52% (vs 51.6% FY25), EPS $3.10-$3.20 (+6.1% midpoint). Capex stepping up to $1.3-$1.4B for store expansion.
- 3,500+ store base with continued expansion. Mexico growth + new store cadence + acquisition optionality. The auto parts retail TAM remains large + fragmented; O'Reilly continues taking share from independents.
Business
O'Reilly Automotive is the #2 US auto parts retailer (behind AutoZone), with #1 share among professional installers (auto repair shops, fleet operators). 6,300+ stores in US + Mexico + Canada (mostly US).
Two customer channels:
- DIY (Do-It-Yourself) (~55% of sales): Consumer drivers buying parts, oil, accessories, batteries, brakes, replacement components. Counter-business + walk-in retail.
- DIFM (Do-It-For-Me) / Professional (~45% of sales, growing faster): Auto repair shops, mechanics, fleet operators. Higher transaction value + recurring relationship + same-day delivery from local stores.
Distribution model: regional distribution centers (~30) + ~6,300 stores + same-day / next-day delivery to professional customers. Inventory turns + freshness + part availability are the differentiators vs e-commerce + national pure-DIY competitors.
International: Mexico expansion (Mayasa Auto Parts subsidiary) + Canada operations.
FY25 financial performance
| Metric (FY) | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($B) | 15.81 | 16.71 | 17.78 |
| Gross profit ($B) | 8.10 | 8.55 | 9.17 |
| Gross margin | 51.3% | 51.2% | 51.6% |
| Op income ($B) | 3.19 | 3.25 | 3.46 |
| Op margin | 20.2% | 19.5% | 19.5% |
| EBITDA ($B) | 3.62 | 3.73 | 3.99 |
| Net income ($B) | 2.35 | 2.39 | 2.54 |
| Diluted EPS ($) | 2.69 | 2.71 | 2.97 |
| Comp store sales | +7.9% | +2.8% | +4.7% |
| FCF ($B) | 2.03 | 2.03 | 1.59 |
| Capex ($B) | -1.01 | -1.02 | -1.17 |
| Total debt ($B) | 7.84 | 7.92 | 8.49 |
| Buybacks ($B) | -3.15 | -2.08 | -2.10 |
| Stores | ~6,150 | ~6,250 | ~6,300 |
The earnings print:
- Comp +4.7% — high end of revised guide. Q4 +5.6% suggests sustained momentum entering FY26.
- GM held at 51.6% — pricing + product mix + distribution efficiency.
- Op margin flat at 19.5% — SG&A discipline matched revenue growth.
- EPS +10% on buyback shrink (~3% YoY).
FCF dipped to $1.59B from $2.03B FY24 — likely working capital build for FY26 inventory.
Capital allocation
- Capex: $-1.17B FY25 (6.6% of revenue). Store + DC + technology. FY26 guide $1.3-$1.4B step up.
- Dividends: zero. O'Reilly has historically not paid a regular dividend.
- Buybacks: $-2.10B FY25 (consistent ~$2-3B/yr pace). Capital return is buyback-only.
- Total debt: $8.49B (+$0.57B YoY). Modest expansion.
- M&A: bolt-on tuck-ins; no major deals in cycle.
FY26 outlook (per Q4 2025 call, 2026-02-05)
| FY26 guide | Range |
|---|---|
| Comparable store sales | +3% to +5% |
| Capex | $1.3B-$1.4B |
| Gross margin | 51.5%-52.0% |
| Diluted EPS | $3.10-$3.20 (midpoint +6.1%) |
| Free cash flow | $1.8B-$2.1B |
The +3-5% comp guide is conservative-to-pragmatic — marginally below FY25's 4.7% but above the 5-year average. Reflects:
- Aging vehicle population (DIY tailwind)
- Inflation in parts pricing (modest)
- Continued share gains from independents
- Mature market dynamics
EPS $3.10-$3.20 implies +6% growth — comp + minor operating leverage + buyback contribution. The conservative guide leaves room to beat.
Key risks
- DIY consumer cyclicality: Recession would compress DIY discretionary spend (oil + accessories + maintenance deferrals).
- Professional channel competition: Genuine Parts Co (NAPA) + Worldpac + Carquest + AutoZone all compete. Same-day delivery + relationship-based pricing.
- EV vehicle mix shift: Long-term, EVs require fewer maintenance items (no oil change, brake regen, fewer wear parts). 5-10 year structural risk; near-term mild as ICE fleet still dominant.
- Wage inflation: Store labor costs rising; pricing pass-through generally works but with lag.
- Imports / tariffs: Auto parts supply chain heavily import-dependent; tariff regime affects COGS.
- E-commerce: Amazon + RockAuto pure-online grow but not yet structural threat to professional channel.
Bottom line
ORLY FY25 is the steady compounder — comp +4.7%, GM held at 51.6%, op margin held at 19.5%, EPS +10%, $2.1B buyback. FY26 guide is +3-5% comp + $3.10-$3.20 EPS + $1.8-$2.1B FCF — conservative-to-pragmatic. The thesis works as long as professional channel compounding + DIY share gains continue + EV transition slow enough not to compress demand. Long-term the EV mix shift is the structural risk; near-term the model continues to deliver cash + margin + comp at unusual scale.
Citations
- O'Reilly Automotive Inc. FY25 Form 10-K (filed February 2026, SEC EDGAR).
- O'Reilly Q4 2025 earnings call, 2026-02-05 — Q4 comps +5.6% / FY +4.7% (high end of revised guide), Q4 EPS $0.71 (+13%), FY EPS $2.97 (+10%), FY26 guide (comp +3-5%, capex $1.3-$1.4B, GM 51.5-52%, EPS $3.10-$3.20, FCF $1.8-$2.1B).
- Internal financial_statements view (consolidated annual + cash flow + capital return).