NXSTCommunication Services·Sep 3, 2026·27 min read

[NXST] Nexstar Media Group Thesis 2026: Retrans Fees and a Midterm Political Year Carry the Largest Local-TV Group

Nexstar Media Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: NXST) is the largest US local-television broadcaster, headquartered in Irving, Texas, founded in 1996 by Perry Sook, that built itself through a roll-up of local-TV stations (Media General 2017, the transformational Tribune Media deal in 2019, and others) and acquired a controlling stake in The CW Network in 2022. NXST enters FY2026 with FY2025 revenue ~$4.8-5.4B (~flat to -8% YoY on the odd-year political-ad trough, off ~$5.4B FY2024, a presidential year) and adj. EPS ~$15-25 (highly biennial-political-cycle-, retrans-reset- and buyback-sensitive; GAAP lumpy on amortization and occasional impairments), reflecting distribution (retransmission-consent) revenue (the recurring base), advertising revenue (core local/national spot plus political), and The CW + NewsNation + digital revenue, all under founder, Chairman + CEO Perry Sook (~30+ year tenure since founding the company in 1996; architect of the local-TV roll-up, the retransmission-consent-fee model, The CW and NewsNation, and the heavily-leveraged, huge-buyback capital model). The first thesis pillar is the Retransmission-Consent Fees + the Local-TV-Station Portfolio + the Political-Advertising Cycle pipeline: the station portfolio is ~200+ owned/operated full-power TV stations across ~115+ markets, reaching ~70%+ of US TV households (at/near the FCC's 39% national-reach cap on a UHF-discounted basis) — affiliates of NBC, CBS, ABC, FOX, plus The CW — carrying local news, syndicated programming, network primetime and sports; retransmission-consent fees are the recurring, contracted, growing revenue base (cable/satellite/vMVPD operators — Comcast, Charter, DirecTV, Dish, YouTube TV, Hulu Live, FuboTV — pay Nexstar a per-subscriber fee to carry its stations, under multi-year contracts that reset higher each cycle because Nexstar's local stations and network affiliations are 'must-have'), now the majority of Nexstar's profit and far more stable than advertising — but with two pressures: cord-cutting (the pay-TV subscriber base shrinking, so per-sub increases must outpace subscriber losses, though they have so far) and 'reverse compensation' (the broadcast networks taking a growing share of the retrans fees back from affiliates as affiliation agreements reset); the political-advertising cycle is huge in even years (presidential biggest, midterm still very large) and dries up in odd years — local TV is a primary political-ad medium, especially down-ballot and in swing states, and Nexstar's large battleground-market footprint makes it a big beneficiary, so FY2025 is the odd-year trough and FY2026 is a midterm-election year, a big political rebound; core advertising (local + national non-political spot — auto, retail, services) is the cyclical, secularly-pressured part (advertisers shifting to digital/streaming), partly offset by digital/CTV products; and because local TV is a high-fixed-cost business, the retrans fees and political surges drop heavily to EBITDA, so margins swing with the political cycle; FY2026 catalyst is ~$5.3-6.0B revenue on the midterm political-advertising rebound, net retrans roughly flat-to-modestly-growing, core advertising still soft secularly, and EBITDA rebounding. The second pillar is the The CW + NewsNation + Digital + Capital Return / Leverage / Regulatory pipeline: The CW Network (a controlling stake acquired ~2022, formerly co-owned by Warner Bros./Paramount) is a turnaround — Nexstar is reprogramming it toward profitability, cutting expensive scripted programming and adding cheaper content (acquired series, unscripted, sports — ACC football/basketball, NASCAR, LIV Golf, WWE NXT) to move it from a money-loser to breakeven/profitable; NewsNation (rebranded from WGN America) is Nexstar's 'down-the-middle' national cable-news network, growing distribution and ratings but still investing (a money-loser building scale); digital + multicast (local station websites/apps, national digital, Antenna TV, Rewind TV) plus a stake in TV Food Network round it out; the capital-return story is that Nexstar generates large free cash flow (especially in even/political years) and returns most of it via huge buybacks (a very large fraction of shares bought back over the years — the share count down from ~60M+ a decade ago to the high-20s/low-30s — the centerpiece of the per-share-growth story), a growing dividend, debt paydown and occasional M&A; the leverage is significant (the roll-up legacy, especially the ~2019 Tribune Media deal — ~3-4x+ net leverage — manageable given the stable retrans and political cash flows, but a leveraged equity); and the regulatory backdrop matters — the FCC ownership cap (the 39%-of-households cap — Nexstar is at/near it; relaxation could enable a local-TV M&A wave with Nexstar as an acquirer or a target), the broadcast-ownership and affiliation rules, the 'reverse comp' trend and the political tilt of the FCC; FY2026 catalyst is The CW toward breakeven/profitability, NewsNation distribution and ratings growth, digital growth, huge buybacks, a growing dividend, deleveraging in the cash-rich even year, and the FCC-ownership-cap deregulation debate. The capital story: a ~$7.00-7.60 aggregate annual dividend per share (~3-5%+ yield; quarterly ~$1.86+; consistently growing), very large buybacks (~$0.5-1.5B+ annual — bigger in even/political years; the share count down from ~60M+ a decade ago), ~$5-7B net debt (the roll-up legacy; a term loan + senior notes; paid down in cash-rich years), ~3.0-4.5x net debt/EBITDA (elevated but manageable; lower in even years, higher in odd years — the ratio swings with the biennial cycle), a BB/Ba2 to BB+/Ba1 non-investment-grade credit profile, ~28-33M diluted shares (declining materially on buybacks) and ~$0.5-1.5B liquidity. At ~$160-280 per share on ~28-33M shares (~$5-8.5B equity, ~$11-15B EV — the EV far above the equity, the hallmark of a leveraged equity) NXST is best framed on EV/EBITDA and the biennial cycle: ~6-9x EV/EBITDA on a normalized (two-year-average) basis and a ~15-25%+ normalized free-cash-flow yield versus local-TV peers Sinclair, TEGNA, Gray Media, E.W. Scripps and the broader leveraged-buyback-media group, with a sum-of-the-parts/private-market-value frame on the station portfolio and the retrans-fee NPV. FY2026 base case is ~$5.3-6.0B revenue (the midterm rebound) + ~$18-28 adj. EPS + ~$2.0-2.5B+ adj. EBITDA + ~3.0-4.0x net debt/EBITDA (deleveraging in the even year) + huge buybacks; bull case a substantial equity re-rating on a big midterm political year (heavy spend in many Nexstar markets, a contested map), net retrans staying flat-to-up, a cyclical core-ad improvement, The CW reaching breakeven/profitability, NewsNation toward breakeven, digital growth, huge buybacks (the share count toward ~25-28M), deleveraging, and the FCC ownership cap relaxed enabling a local-TV M&A wave with Nexstar as the consolidator — the leverage and buyback amplifying the political-rebound earnings; bear case the equity sharply lower on cord-cutting/linear-decline accelerating (net retrans starting to decline — the existential long-term risk, since retrans is the majority of profit), 'reverse comp' intensifying, a weak midterm political year, the core-ad secular decline accelerating, The CW staying a persistent money-loser, NewsNation never reaching profitability, the leverage (a leveraged equity at risk if retrans/political deteriorate and shrinking buyback/dividend capacity), a network pulling/changing affiliations, an unfavorable regulatory turn and the Perry-Sook-succession overhang — the leverage working against you. The thesis depends on the Retransmission-Consent Fees + the Local-TV-Station Portfolio + the Political-Advertising Cycle pipeline plus the ~200+-station portfolio plus the recurring retrans-fee base (net retrans staying flat-to-up despite cord-cutting and reverse-comp) plus the FY2026 midterm-election-year political-advertising rebound plus the biennial cash-flow cycle plus The CW and NewsNation reaching/approaching breakeven plus the huge buyback (the share count shrinking) plus the growing dividend plus deleveraging in even years plus the regulatory environment (the ownership cap — a potential M&A catalyst) and Perry Sook's retrans, political-cycle, capital-return and The-CW-turnaround execution.

[NXST] Nexstar Media Group Thesis 2026: Retrans Fees and a Midterm Political Year Carry the Largest Local-TV Group

Key Takeaways

  • NXST FY2025 revenue ~$4.8-5.4B (~flat to -8% YoY on the odd-year political-ad trough) with adj. EPS ~$15-25 (selected various aggregate ~~~highly biennial-political-cycle- + retrans-reset- + buyback-sensitive; GAAP lumpy on amortization + occasional impairments) reflecting continued ~~~distribution (retransmission-consent) revenue (the recurring base) + ~~~advertising revenue (core local/national spot + political) + ~~~The CW + NewsNation + digital revenue under continued founder, Chairman + CEO Perry Sook (~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~30+ year tenure as Nexstar CEO since he founded the company in ~~1996; selected primary post-1996 founding + selected various aggregate ~~~~~~~~the broadcasting-executive heritage + selected primary architect of post-1996-2025 ~~the roll-up of local-TV stations (the Media General, Tribune Media, and other acquisitions that made Nexstar the #1 US local broadcaster) + the retransmission-consent-fee model + The CW acquisition + the NewsNation cable-news launch + the heavily-leveraged + huge-buyback capital model).
  • Retransmission-Consent Fees + the Local-TV-Station Portfolio + the Political-Advertising Cycle Pipeline (~The Core Engine): selected primary retrans fees + the station portfolio + political (selected primary ~~~~~~~the station portfolio — ~~~~200+ owned/operated full-power TV stations across ~~~~115+ markets, reaching ~~~~70%+ of US TV households (the FCC caps a single owner at ~~~39% of households on a "UHF-discounted" basis — Nexstar is at/near the cap) — affiliates of all the major networks (NBC, CBS, ABC, FOX, plus The CW) — local news + syndicated programming + network primetime + sports + selected various aggregate ~~~~~~~retransmission-consent fees — the recurring, contracted, growing revenue base: cable/satellite/vMVPD operators (Comcast, Charter, DirecTV, Dish, YouTube TV, Hulu Live, FuboTV) pay Nexstar a per-subscriber fee to carry its stations; these are multi-year contracts that reset higher each cycle (Nexstar's local stations + network affiliations are "must-have" content); retrans is now the majority of Nexstar's profit + a far more stable revenue stream than advertising — BUT it has two pressures: (a) cord-cutting — the pay-TV subscriber base is shrinking, so per-sub rate increases have to outpace subscriber losses (so far they have, but the gap narrows over time), and (b) "reverse compensation" — the broadcast networks (NBC/CBS/ABC/FOX) take a growing share of the retrans fees back from their affiliates (as affiliation agreements reset), eating into Nexstar's net retrans + selected various aggregate ~~~~~~~the political-advertising cycle — political ad spending is huge in even-numbered election years (presidential years biggest, midterm years still very large) and dries up in odd years — local TV is a primary political-ad medium (especially down-ballot races, swing states) — Nexstar's large footprint in many battleground markets makes it a big political beneficiary; the cycle: even years (2024 presidential, 2026 midterm, 2028 presidential) = a big political-revenue tailwind; odd years (2025, 2027) = the political-revenue trough — so FY2025 is an odd-year trough and FY2026 is a midterm-election year, a big political-revenue rebound + selected various aggregate ~~~~~~~core advertising — local + national non-political spot advertising (auto, retail, services, etc.) — the cyclical, secularly-pressured part (advertisers shifting to digital/streaming; local TV ad dollars in slow decline ex-political), partly offset by digital/CTV ad products Nexstar sells + selected various aggregate ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~the margin profile — local TV is a high-fixed-cost business; the retrans fees + political-ad surges drop heavily to EBITDA, so margins swing with the political cycle (big in even years, compressed in odd years)) + selected various aggregate post-2024-2025 ~retrans + political + core-ad dynamics (selected primary ~~~~~~~retrans (net retrans growth — per-sub increases minus subscriber losses minus reverse-comp share) + selected various aggregate ~~~~~~~political (FY2025 odd-year trough → FY2026 midterm-year rebound — a big swing) + selected various aggregate ~~~~~~~core advertising (slow secular decline ex-political; digital/CTV offset) + selected various aggregate ~~~~~~~the EBITDA swing (compressed in FY2025, rebounding in FY2026)).
  • The CW + NewsNation + Digital + Capital Return / Leverage / Regulatory Pipeline (~The Newer Assets + the Capital Story): selected primary The CW + NewsNation + digital + the capital return + leverage + regulatory (selected primary ~~~~~~~The CW Network — Nexstar acquired a controlling stake in The CW (the broadcast network formerly co-owned by Warner Bros./Paramount) in ~2022 — a turnaround project: Nexstar is reprogramming The CW toward profitability — cutting expensive scripted programming, adding cheaper content (acquired series, unscripted, sports — ACC football/basketball, NASCAR, LIV Golf, etc.) — aiming to move The CW from a money-loser to breakeven/profitable + selected various aggregate ~~~~~~~NewsNation — Nexstar's national cable-news network (rebranded from WGN America) — a "down-the-middle" news alternative to Fox/CNN/MSNBC — growing distribution + ratings but still investing (a money-loser building toward scale) + selected various aggregate ~~~~~~~digital + multicast — Nexstar's local station websites/apps + national digital + multicast networks (Antenna TV, Rewind TV) + a stake in TV Food Network (the cable channel) + selected various aggregate ~~~~~~~the capital-return story — Nexstar generates large free cash flow (especially in even/political years) and returns most of it: huge buybacks (Nexstar has bought back a very large fraction of its shares over the years — the share count has fallen dramatically — the buyback is the centerpiece of the per-share-growth story) + a growing dividend + debt paydown + occasional M&A + selected various aggregate ~~~~~~~the leverage — Nexstar carries a lot of debt (the legacy of the roll-up acquisitions, especially the ~2019 Tribune Media deal) — ~~~3-4x+ net leverage — manageable given the stable retrans cash flows + the political-cycle cash flows, but it's a leveraged equity (which torques up in good times + is at risk if retrans/political deteriorate badly) + selected various aggregate ~~~~~~~the regulatory backdrop — (a) the FCC ownership cap (the 39%-of-households national-reach cap — Nexstar is at/near it; if the FCC raises or eliminates the cap (a perennial deregulation debate), it could enable more local-TV M&A — Nexstar as an acquirer or a consolidator's target), (b) the broadcast-ownership rules (the UHF discount, the duopoly rules, the network-affiliation rules), (c) the network-affiliation-fee "reverse comp" trend (networks taking more retrans share), (d) the FCC under different administrations (the political tilt of the FCC affects deregulation + scrutiny) + selected various aggregate post-2024-2025 ~The CW + NewsNation + digital + capital-return dynamics (selected primary ~~~~~~~The CW (the path to breakeven/profitability — cheaper programming + sports + distribution) + selected various aggregate ~~~~~~~NewsNation (distribution + ratings growth; the path to breakeven) + selected various aggregate ~~~~~~~digital (growth) + selected various aggregate ~~~~~~~the buyback (the per-share-growth lever) + selected various aggregate ~~~~~~~the dividend + selected various aggregate ~~~~~~~debt paydown (deleveraging in cash-rich years) + selected various aggregate ~~~~~~~the regulatory developments (the ownership cap — a potential M&A catalyst)).
  • Capital position + balance sheet: ~$7.00-7.60 aggregate annual dividend per share (~~~~3-5%+ aggregate yield; selected primary ~~~quarterly ~~~$1.86+ + selected various aggregate ~~~~~~~~~~~a consistently growing dividend — Nexstar has raised it for years) + selected various aggregate ~$0.5-1.5B+ aggregate annual buybacks (selected primary ~~~very large — Nexstar has bought back a very large fraction of its shares over the years (the share count down from ~~~60M+ a decade ago to the high-20s/low-30s); the buyback is the centerpiece of the per-share-growth story; bigger in even/political years) + aggregate net debt ~$5-7B (selected various aggregate ~~~~the legacy of the roll-up acquisitions (Tribune Media, Media General, etc.); a mix of a term loan + senior notes; paid down in cash-rich years) + selected primary ~~~~~~3.0-4.5x aggregate net debt / EBITDA (selected various aggregate ~~~~~elevated but manageable given the stable retrans + political cash flows; lower in even years (higher EBITDA), higher in odd years) + BB/Ba2 to BB+/Ba1 aggregate credit profile (non-investment-grade) + ~~~~~28-33M aggregate diluted shares (selected various aggregate ~~~~~declining materially on buybacks — down from ~~~60M+ a decade ago).
  • FY2026 thesis catalysts: Retransmission-Consent Fees + the Local-TV-Station Portfolio + the Political-Advertising Cycle pipeline (~200+ stations across ~115+ markets reaching ~70%+ of US TV households + retrans fees (the recurring base — per-sub increases minus cord-cutting minus reverse-comp share) + the FY2026 midterm-election-year political-advertising rebound (a big swing off the FY2025 odd-year trough) + core advertising (slow secular decline ex-political; digital/CTV offset) + the EBITDA swing rebounding in the even year) + The CW + NewsNation + Digital + Capital Return / Leverage / Regulatory pipeline (The CW (the path to breakeven/profitability — cheaper programming + sports) + NewsNation (distribution + ratings growth) + digital + huge buybacks (the share count shrinking) + a growing dividend + debt paydown (deleveraging in the cash-rich even year) + the FCC-ownership-cap deregulation debate (a potential local-TV M&A catalyst)) + ~$7.00-7.60 dividend + huge buybacks + ~3.0-4.5x net debt/EBITDA + Perry Sook retrans + political-cycle + capital-return + The-CW-turnaround execution.

Company Background

Nexstar Media Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: NXST) is the largest US local-television broadcaster, headquartered in Irving, Texas, founded in 1996 by Perry Sook (selected primary post-1996 founding by Perry Sook + selected post-1996-2025 ~~the roll-up of local-TV stations via acquisitions (Inergize, Communications Corp. of America, Media General (2017), Tribune Media (2019 — the transformational deal that made Nexstar the #1 US local broadcaster), and others) + selected post-2022 ~~The CW Network acquisition (a controlling stake in the broadcast network) + selected various aggregate ~~the NewsNation cable-news launch (rebranded from WGN America) + selected post-2017 ~~NASDAQ listing (it had been on the Nasdaq earlier too) + the heavily-leveraged + huge-buyback capital model). Selected ~NASDAQ listing as Nexstar Media Group; selected post-1996-2025 Perry Sook era (founder, Chairman + CEO; ~30+ year tenure; the architect of the local-TV roll-up + the retransmission-consent-fee model + The CW + NewsNation + the leveraged-equity + buyback model); HQ Irving, Texas; ~~~12,000-14,000 employees.

NXST operates: ~200+ owned/operated full-power TV stations across ~115+ markets, reaching ~70%+ of US TV households (at/near the FCC's 39% cap) — affiliates of NBC, CBS, ABC, FOX, plus The CW (a controlling stake) — plus NewsNation (a national cable-news network) + digital (local station websites/apps + national digital) + multicast networks (Antenna TV, Rewind TV) + a stake in TV Food Network. Revenue: distribution / retransmission-consent fees (the recurring, contracted, growing base — the majority of profit) + advertising (core local/national spot + political — political huge in even years, absent in odd years) + The CW + NewsNation + digital + other. Geographic mix: ~all US. Capital position: ~$7.00-7.60 aggregate annual dividend per share (~3-5%+ yield; consistently growing) + ~$0.5-1.5B+ aggregate annual buybacks (very large) + aggregate net debt ~$5-7B (~3.0-4.5x aggregate net debt/EBITDA) + BB/Ba2 to BB+/Ba1 credit profile (non-investment-grade) + ~28-33M aggregate diluted shares (declining materially on buybacks — down from ~60M+ a decade ago).

Retransmission-Consent Fees + the Local-TV-Station Portfolio + the Political-Advertising Cycle Pipeline (~The Core Engine)

The Retransmission-Consent Fees + the Local-TV-Station Portfolio + the Political-Advertising Cycle pipeline is NXST's foundation thesis: selected primary retrans fees + the station portfolio + political (selected primary ~~~~~~~the station portfolio — ~~~~200+ owned/operated full-power TV stations across ~~~~115+ markets, reaching ~~~~70%+ of US TV households (at/near the FCC's 39% cap) — affiliates of NBC, CBS, ABC, FOX, plus The CW — local news + syndicated + network primetime + sports + selected various aggregate ~~~~~~~retransmission-consent fees — the recurring, contracted, growing revenue base: cable/satellite/vMVPD operators pay Nexstar a per-subscriber fee to carry its stations; multi-year contracts that reset higher each cycle (Nexstar's local stations + network affiliations are "must-have"); retrans is now the majority of Nexstar's profit + far more stable than advertising — BUT with two pressures: (a) cord-cutting (the pay-TV subscriber base shrinking — per-sub increases must outpace subscriber losses), and (b) "reverse compensation" (the networks taking a growing share of retrans fees back from affiliates) + selected various aggregate ~~~~~~~the political-advertising cycle — political ad spending is huge in even years (presidential biggest, midterm still very large) and dries up in odd years — local TV is a primary political-ad medium (down-ballot races, swing states) — Nexstar's large footprint in many battleground markets makes it a big political beneficiary: even years (2024, 2026, 2028) = a big political tailwind; odd years (2025, 2027) = the political trough — FY2025 is an odd-year trough; FY2026 is a midterm-election year, a big political rebound + selected various aggregate ~~~~~~~core advertising — local + national non-political spot (auto, retail, services) — the cyclical, secularly-pressured part (advertisers shifting to digital/streaming), partly offset by digital/CTV products + selected various aggregate ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~the margin profile — local TV is a high-fixed-cost business; retrans fees + political surges drop heavily to EBITDA, so margins swing with the political cycle) + selected various aggregate post-2024-2025 ~retrans + political + core-ad dynamics.

FY2025 Retransmission-Consent Fees + the Local-TV-Station Portfolio + the Political-Advertising Cycle dynamics: selected primary ~the odd-year political trough (selected primary ~~~~~~~political advertising minimal (FY2025 is an off-year — no major elections) → a big drag on total revenue + EBITDA vs the FY2024 presidential year + selected various aggregate ~~~~~~~retrans (net retrans roughly flat-to-modestly-growing — per-sub rate increases offsetting cord-cutting subscriber losses + reverse-comp share; the contracts that reset in 2024-2025 set the run-rate) + selected various aggregate ~~~~~~~core advertising (soft — the secular ad-dollar shift to digital + a cautious local-advertiser environment) + selected various aggregate ~~~~~~~the EBITDA compressed (the high fixed cost base, less political, soft core ad)) + ~$4.8-5.4B aggregate revenue (down vs FY2024 on the political swing). Selected post-2024 ~$12-20 aggregate annual adj. EPS contribution (selected various aggregate ~~the compressed odd-year level) as the Retransmission-Consent Fees + the Local-TV-Station Portfolio + the Political-Advertising Cycle pipeline drives the core revenue + the cyclical EBITDA.

FY2026 catalyst: continued Retransmission-Consent Fees + the Local-TV-Station Portfolio + the Political-Advertising Cycle pipeline + ~$18-28 aggregate annual adj. EPS contribution (selected various aggregate ~~the midterm-year rebound) under continued Perry Sook leadership (~30+ year tenure). Selected aggregate ~$5.3-6.0B aggregate FY2026 revenue (selected various aggregate ~~~~~~~the FY2026 midterm-election-year political-advertising rebound (a big swing — political revenue jumps off the FY2025 odd-year trough; a presidential year would be bigger, but a midterm year is still a major political tailwind, especially with Nexstar's battleground-market footprint) + selected various aggregate ~~~~~~~retrans (net retrans roughly flat-to-modestly-growing — per-sub increases vs cord-cutting + reverse-comp; the key debate is whether net retrans can stay flat-to-up as the cord-cutting + reverse-comp pressures intensify) + selected various aggregate ~~~~~~~core advertising (still soft secularly; possible cyclical improvement; digital/CTV offset) + selected various aggregate ~~~~~~~the EBITDA rebounding (the political surge + the fixed-cost leverage)). Risks: in local TV — Sinclair (SBGI, ~$1-3B Mcap; the #2/3 US local broadcaster + the Tennis Channel) + TEGNA (TGNA, ~$3-5B; large local-TV group — was nearly acquired by Standard General, deal blocked) + Gray Media/Gray Television (GTN, ~$1-3B; large local-TV group) + E.W. Scripps (SSP), Cox Media, Hearst Television (private), Allen Media + the network O&O stations (Comcast/NBC, Paramount/CBS, Disney/ABC, Fox) + selected various aggregate local-TV competitive considerations + the cord-cutting / linear-TV-decline considerations (the central long-term risk — the pay-TV subscriber base is in secular decline (streaming substitution); Nexstar's retrans revenue = per-sub fee × subscribers — per-sub increases have outpaced subscriber losses so far, but the gap narrows; eventually, if cord-cutting accelerates, net retrans could decline — and retrans is the majority of profit) + the "reverse comp" considerations (the broadcast networks (NBC/CBS/ABC/FOX) take a growing share of the retrans fees back from their affiliates as affiliation agreements reset — eating into Nexstar's net retrans; the affiliate-network relationship is a perennial tension) + the political-cycle-dependence considerations (a big chunk of even-year revenue + EBITDA is political; the cycle is predictable (even years up, odd years down) but the magnitude varies (a wild presidential year vs a quieter midterm; the issue/candidate landscape; the swing-state map); odd years are structurally weak) + the core-ad-decline considerations (local TV ad dollars in slow secular decline ex-political; the digital/CTV offset is real but smaller) + the network-affiliation-renewal considerations (Nexstar's stations are affiliates — the networks could in theory pull affiliations or change terms; this is a long-term structural risk to the local-broadcast model) + the leverage considerations (~3-4x+ net leverage — manageable but a leveraged equity; if retrans/political deteriorate badly, the equity is at risk) + the regulatory considerations (the FCC ownership cap, the affiliation rules, the political tilt of the FCC).

The CW + NewsNation + Digital + Capital Return / Leverage / Regulatory Pipeline (~The Newer Assets + the Capital Story)

The The CW + NewsNation + Digital + Capital Return / Leverage / Regulatory pipeline is NXST's turnaround + value-creation thesis: selected primary The CW + NewsNation + digital + the capital return + leverage + regulatory (selected primary ~~~~~~~The CW Network — Nexstar acquired a controlling stake in The CW (the broadcast network formerly co-owned by Warner Bros./Paramount) in ~2022 — a turnaround: reprogramming The CW toward profitability — cutting expensive scripted programming, adding cheaper content (acquired series, unscripted, sports — ACC football/basketball, NASCAR, LIV Golf, WWE NXT, etc.) — aiming to move The CW from a money-loser to breakeven/profitable (the original "lose $X hundred million a year" was the bear case; the reprogramming is meant to narrow + eliminate that) + selected various aggregate ~~~~~~~NewsNation — Nexstar's national cable-news network (rebranded from WGN America) — a "down-the-middle" news alternative to Fox/CNN/MSNBC — growing distribution + ratings but still investing (a money-loser building toward scale + relevance) + selected various aggregate ~~~~~~~digital + multicast — Nexstar's local station websites/apps + national digital + multicast networks (Antenna TV, Rewind TV) + a stake in TV Food Network + selected various aggregate ~~~~~~~the capital-return story — Nexstar generates large free cash flow (especially in even/political years) and returns most of it: huge buybacks (a very large fraction of shares bought back over the years — the share count down from ~~~60M+ a decade ago to the high-20s/low-30s — the centerpiece of the per-share-growth story) + a growing dividend + debt paydown + occasional M&A + selected various aggregate ~~~~~~~the leverage — Nexstar carries a lot of debt (the roll-up legacy, especially the ~2019 Tribune Media deal) — ~~~3-4x+ net leverage — manageable given the stable retrans + political cash flows, but a leveraged equity + selected various aggregate ~~~~~~~the regulatory backdrop — (a) the FCC ownership cap (the 39%-of-households national-reach cap — Nexstar is at/near it; if the FCC raises/eliminates the cap (a perennial deregulation debate, more likely under a deregulatory FCC), it could enable more local-TV M&A — Nexstar as an acquirer or a consolidator's target), (b) the broadcast-ownership rules, (c) the "reverse comp" trend, (d) the political tilt of the FCC) + selected various aggregate post-2024-2025 ~The CW + NewsNation + digital + capital-return dynamics.

FY2025 The CW + NewsNation + Digital + Capital Return / Leverage / Regulatory dynamics: selected primary The CW reprogramming progress (selected primary ~~~~~~~The CW losses narrowing — cheaper programming + sports (ACC, NASCAR, LIV Golf, WWE NXT, etc.) replacing expensive scripted → moving toward breakeven (the timeline has slipped a bit but the direction is clear) + selected various aggregate ~~~~~~~NewsNation (distribution + ratings growth — gaining carriage + viewers; still a money-loser building scale) + selected various aggregate ~~~~~~~digital growth + selected various aggregate ~~~~~~~the capital return — huge buybacks ($0.5-1.5B+ FY2025; the share count shrinking) + the dividend (~$7.00-7.60; growing) + debt paydown (in the odd year, with less political cash, somewhat more measured) + selected various aggregate ~~~~~~~the leverage (~3.0-4.5x — higher in the odd year on lower EBITDA)). Selected post-2024 ~$0-5 aggregate annual adj. EPS contribution (selected various aggregate ~~The CW + NewsNation are a drag (money-losers); the buyback-driven per-share boost is the offset) as the The CW + NewsNation + Digital + Capital Return / Leverage / Regulatory pipeline drives the turnaround + the per-share-value lever.

FY2026 catalyst: continued The CW + NewsNation + Digital + Capital Return / Leverage / Regulatory pipeline + ~$0-5 aggregate annual adj. EPS contribution + selected various aggregate ~~~~~~~The CW toward breakeven/profitability (the reprogramming bearing fruit — a drag becoming neutral/positive) + selected various aggregate ~~~~~~~NewsNation distribution + ratings growth (toward breakeven) + selected various aggregate ~~~~~~~digital growth + selected various aggregate ~~~~~~~huge buybacks (the per-share-growth lever — bigger in the even/political year with more free cash flow; the share count toward 28-30M) + selected various aggregate ~~~~~~~the dividend ($7.00-7.60; growing) + selected various aggregate ~~~~~~~debt paydown (deleveraging in the cash-rich even year) + selected various aggregate ~~~~~~~the FCC-ownership-cap deregulation debate (if the cap is raised/eliminated — a potential local-TV M&A wave — Nexstar as an acquirer (more scale, more retrans negotiating power) or a target). Risks: in cable news (NewsNation's market) — Fox News (within Fox — FOXA), CNN (within Warner Bros. Discovery — WBD), MSNBC (within Comcast/Versant — CMCSA), Newsmax (NMAX) + in broadcast networks (The CW's market) — NBC/CBS/ABC/FOX + on the streaming side — the major streamers (Netflix, Disney+, etc.) competing for content + audience + on the local-TV-consolidation side — Sinclair (SBGI), TEGNA (TGNA), Gray (GTN) — potential M&A counterparties (acquirers, targets, or merger partners) + selected various aggregate cable-news + broadcast-network + local-TV-consolidation competitive considerations + the The-CW-turnaround considerations (the central The CW risk — can Nexstar actually get The CW to breakeven/profitability via cheaper programming + sports, or does it stay a persistent money-loser? — the timeline has slipped; the reprogramming is reasonable but the broadcast-network model is structurally challenged) + the NewsNation considerations (it's a money-loser building scale; whether it ever reaches profitability + relevance is uncertain — cable news is a crowded, declining market) + the buyback-funding considerations (the huge buyback is funded by the political-cycle + retrans cash flows; if those deteriorate, the buyback (and the dividend) capacity shrinks) + the leverage considerations (~3-4x+ — a leveraged equity; the political-cycle cash-flow swing means the leverage ratio swings too) + the regulatory considerations (the ownership cap — a potential M&A catalyst if relaxed, a constraint if not; the affiliation rules; the FCC's tilt) + the cord-cutting considerations (loops back — it pressures retrans, the main cash engine) + the Perry-Sook-succession considerations (Sook is 60s/70s, founder/CEO for 30+ years — the eventual succession is a long-term overhang).

Capital Position + Balance Sheet

Capital position + balance sheet: ~$7.00-7.60 aggregate annual dividend per share (~~~~3-5%+ aggregate yield; selected primary ~~~quarterly ~~~$1.86+ + selected various aggregate ~~~~~~~~~~~a consistently growing dividend — Nexstar has raised it for many years) + selected various aggregate ~$0.5-1.5B+ aggregate annual buybacks (selected primary ~~~very large — Nexstar has bought back a very large fraction of its shares over the years (the share count down from ~~~60M+ a decade ago to the high-20s/low-30s); the buyback is the centerpiece of the per-share-growth story; bigger in even/political years with more free cash flow) + aggregate net debt ~$5-7B (selected various aggregate ~~~~the legacy of the roll-up acquisitions (Tribune Media (~2019), Media General, etc.); a mix of a term loan + senior notes; paid down in cash-rich (even/political) years) + selected primary ~~~~~~3.0-4.5x aggregate net debt / EBITDA (selected various aggregate ~~~~~elevated but manageable given the stable retrans + political cash flows; lower in even years (higher EBITDA from political), higher in odd years (the trough) — the leverage ratio swings with the biennial cycle) + BB/Ba2 to BB+/Ba1 aggregate credit profile (non-investment-grade) + ~~~~~28-33M aggregate diluted shares (selected various aggregate ~~~~~declining materially on buybacks — down from ~~~60M+ a decade ago) + weighted average debt maturity ~3-6 years + selected various aggregate ~~~~~$0.5-1.5B aggregate liquidity (an undrawn revolver + cash).

FY2026 catalyst: continued dividend (~$7.00-7.60 aggregate annual; selected various aggregate ~~~mid-to-high-single-digit % aggregate dividend growth) + selected continued ~$0.5-1.5B+ aggregate annual buybacks (selected primary ~~~the per-share-growth engine — bigger in the even/political year; the share count toward ~~~28-30M) + selected various aggregate ~~~~~3.0-4.0x aggregate net debt/EBITDA (selected primary ~~~deleveraging in the cash-rich even year — the political-cycle + retrans cash flows paying down debt; the ratio lower in the even year than the odd year) + selected various aggregate ~~~~debt paydown + refinancing + selected various aggregate ~~~~The CW + NewsNation investment (a use of cash, narrowing as The CW approaches breakeven) + selected various aggregate ~~~~M&A optionality (if the FCC ownership cap is relaxed — a local-TV consolidation wave — Nexstar as an acquirer) + selected continued BB/Ba2 to BB+/Ba1 credit profile. Selected the dividend + selected huge buybacks + selected ~the political-cycle + retrans cash flows + selected ~deleveraging in even years support the retrans-fees-and-a-midterm-political-year-carry-the-largest-local-TV-group model — the recurring retrans base + the biennial political surge generating large free cash flow returned via the buyback (the share count shrinking ~5-10%+ a year in good years) + the growing dividend, with the equity torqued by the leverage and gated by the cord-cutting/reverse-comp pressures on retrans.

Key Core Metrics

  • FY2025 revenue ~$4.8-5.4B (~flat to -8% YoY on the odd-year political-ad trough) vs ~$5.4B FY2024 (a presidential year); adj. EPS ~$15-25 (highly biennial-political-cycle- + retrans-reset- + buyback-sensitive; GAAP lumpy on amortization + occasional impairments)
  • The station portfolio: ~200+ owned/operated full-power TV stations across ~115+ markets, reaching ~70%+ of US TV households (at/near the FCC's 39% national-reach cap on a UHF-discounted basis) — affiliates of NBC, CBS, ABC, FOX, plus The CW (a controlling stake)
  • Retransmission-consent fees: the recurring, contracted, growing revenue base (cable/satellite/vMVPD operators pay a per-subscriber fee to carry Nexstar's stations; multi-year contracts that reset higher each cycle) — now the majority of Nexstar's profit + far more stable than advertising; pressures: cord-cutting (the pay-TV subscriber base shrinking — per-sub increases must outpace subscriber losses) + "reverse compensation" (the networks taking a growing share of retrans back from affiliates)
  • The political-advertising cycle: political ad spending is huge in even years (presidential biggest, midterm still very large) and dries up in odd years — local TV is a primary political-ad medium (down-ballot, swing states); Nexstar's battleground-market footprint makes it a big beneficiary; FY2025 = odd-year trough; FY2026 = a midterm-election year (a big political rebound)
  • Core advertising: local + national non-political spot (auto, retail, services) — the cyclical, secularly-pressured part (advertisers shifting to digital/streaming); a digital/CTV offset
  • The CW Network: a controlling stake acquired ~2022 — a turnaround (reprogramming toward profitability — cheaper programming + sports — ACC football/basketball, NASCAR, LIV Golf, WWE NXT, etc. — replacing expensive scripted; aiming to move from a money-loser to breakeven/profitable)
  • NewsNation: a national cable-news network (rebranded from WGN America) — a "down-the-middle" news alternative — growing distribution + ratings but still investing (a money-loser building scale)
  • Digital + multicast: local station websites/apps + national digital + multicast networks (Antenna TV, Rewind TV) + a stake in TV Food Network
  • Aggregate adj. EBITDA: swings with the political cycle (big in even/political years, compressed in odd years) — ~$1.5-2.0B FY2025 (odd-year trough); rebounding in FY2026 (midterm year)
  • Aggregate net debt: ~$5-7B (the roll-up legacy — Tribune Media (~2019), Media General, etc.); ~3.0-4.5x aggregate net debt/EBITDA (elevated but manageable; lower in even years, higher in odd years — the ratio swings with the biennial cycle)
  • BB/Ba2 to BB+/Ba1 aggregate credit profile (non-investment-grade)
  • ~28-33M aggregate diluted shares (declining materially on buybacks — down from ~60M+ a decade ago); ~$0.20-0.25B total dividends FY2025
  • Dividend: ~$7.00-7.60 aggregate annual per share (~3-5%+ yield; quarterly ~$1.86+; a consistently growing dividend)
  • Very large buybacks (~$0.5-1.5B+ aggregate annual — the per-share-growth engine; bigger in even/political years; the share count shrinking ~5-10%+ a year in good years)
  • The FCC ownership cap (the 39%-of-households national-reach cap — Nexstar is at/near it; a perennial deregulation debate — relaxation could enable a local-TV M&A wave with Nexstar as an acquirer or a consolidator's target)
  • ~$0.5-1.5B aggregate liquidity (an undrawn revolver + cash)
  • Geographic mix: ~all US
  • ~12,000-14,000 employees
  • Perry Sook founder, Chairman + CEO since 1996 (~30+ year tenure; the architect of the local-TV roll-up, the retransmission-consent-fee model, The CW, NewsNation, and the leveraged-equity + buyback model)
  • HQ Irving, Texas; founded 1996; the transformational Tribune Media acquisition 2019; The CW controlling stake ~2022; NASDAQ listing

Market Evaluation

NXST FY2026 market evaluation: at ~$160-280 share price + ~28-33M aggregate diluted shares = ~$5-8.5B equity market cap; ~$11-15B aggregate enterprise value (incl. ~$5-7B net debt — note the EV is much larger than the equity, the hallmark of a leveraged equity); ~$7.00-7.60 aggregate annual dividend (~3-5%+ aggregate yield). Selected primary NXST peers: Sinclair (SBGI, ~$1-3B Mcap; the #2/3 US local broadcaster + the Tennis Channel) + TEGNA (TGNA, ~$3-5B; large local-TV group) + Gray Media/Gray Television (GTN, ~$1-3B; large local-TV group — heavily leveraged) + E.W. Scripps (SSP, ~$0.1-0.5B; local TV + national networks) + on the leveraged-buyback-media lens — Fox Corporation (FOXA — has its own retrans + political exposure, less leveraged), Paramount/CBS (PARA), Comcast/NBC (CMCSA) + on the "cyclical-political-ad + recurring-affiliate-fee" lens — the local-TV group broadly + selected various aggregate local-TV + media companies. Selected NXST valuation is best framed on EV/EBITDA + the biennial cycle (P/E is distorted by the even/odd political swing — look at an average-of-two-years or normalized basis): ~6-9x EV/EBITDA on a normalized (two-year-average) basis (the largest US local broadcaster — ~200+ stations reaching ~70%+ of households, retrans fees (the recurring base — the majority of profit), the biennial political-ad surge (FY2026 a midterm year — a big rebound), The CW + NewsNation (turnaround projects/drags), heavily leveraged (~3-4x+), and a huge buyback (the share count shrinking ~5-10%+ a year in good years) + a ~3-5%+ dividend) + selected ~~~highly variable P/E (single-digit on the even-year boom, much higher on the odd-year trough — average it) + selected ~~~~a free-cash-flow yield of ~~~~15-25%+ on a normalized basis (the cash-cow character — high FCF returned via the buyback + dividend) + selected ~~~~a "sum-of-the-parts"/"private-market-value" frame (the station portfolio's value to a consolidator, the retrans-fee stream's NPV) + ~3-5%+ dividend yield + selected aggregate ~$5.3-6.0B aggregate FY2026 revenue (the midterm rebound) + selected aggregate ~$18-28 aggregate FY2026 adj. EPS (the midterm year) + selected aggregate Retransmission-Consent Fees + the Local-TV-Station Portfolio + the Political-Advertising Cycle + The CW + NewsNation pipeline. FY2026 base case: ~$5.3-6.0B aggregate revenue (the midterm political rebound) + ~$18-28 adj. EPS + ~$2.0-2.5B+ adj. EBITDA (rebounding) + ~3.0-4.0x net debt/EBITDA (deleveraging in the even year) + huge buybacks. Bull case: Retransmission-Consent Fees + the Local-TV-Station Portfolio + the Political-Advertising Cycle pipeline acceleration (a big midterm political year — a heavy spend in many Nexstar markets + a contested map + net retrans staying flat-to-up (per-sub increases outpacing cord-cutting + reverse-comp) + a cyclical core-ad improvement + the fixed-cost leverage) + The CW + NewsNation + Digital + Capital Return / Leverage / Regulatory pipeline acceleration (The CW reaching breakeven/profitability — the drag eliminated + NewsNation toward breakeven + digital growth + huge buybacks (the share count toward ~25-28M) + deleveraging + the FCC ownership cap relaxed → a local-TV M&A wave with Nexstar as the consolidator) drives a substantial equity re-rating (the leverage + the buyback amplify the political-rebound earnings). Bear case: Sinclair + TEGNA + Gray competitive considerations (within local TV) + the cord-cutting/linear-decline accelerating (the pay-TV subscriber base shrinking faster → net retrans starting to decline — and retrans is the majority of profit; this is the existential long-term risk) + "reverse comp" intensifying (the networks taking more retrans share) + a weak midterm political year (a less-contested map, less issue spending) + the core-ad secular decline accelerating + The CW staying a persistent money-loser + NewsNation never reaching profitability + the leverage (~4x+ — a leveraged equity; if retrans/political deteriorate, the equity is at risk + the buyback/dividend capacity shrinks) + a network pulling/changing affiliations (a structural risk to the model) + the regulatory environment turning unfavorable + the Perry-Sook-succession overhang drives the equity sharply lower (the leverage works against you — a structural retrans decline + a weak political year would crush the leveraged equity). The thesis depends on the Retransmission-Consent Fees + the Local-TV-Station Portfolio + the Political-Advertising Cycle pipeline + the ~200+-station portfolio + the recurring retrans-fee base (net retrans staying flat-to-up despite cord-cutting + reverse-comp) + the FY2026 midterm-election-year political-advertising rebound + the biennial cash-flow cycle + The CW + NewsNation reaching/approaching breakeven + the huge buyback (the share count shrinking) + the growing dividend + deleveraging in even years + the regulatory environment (the ownership cap — a potential M&A catalyst) + Perry Sook retrans + political-cycle + capital-return + The-CW-turnaround execution.

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