Noble Corporation plc (NYSE: NE) FY2025 revenue ~$3.55-3.80B (+30-40%) with adj. EPS ~$3.85-4.25 reflecting continued post-September 2024 Diamond Offshore merger + post-October 2022 Maersk Drilling merger ~$3.55-3.80B aggregate Offshore Drilling revenue (~$2.45-2.65B aggregate Floaters Ultra-Deepwater + ~$0.85-0.95B aggregate Jackup + ~$0.25-0.30B aggregate Other Services) under continued President + CEO Robert Eifler since April 2020 (~5-year tenure as Noble CEO; selected primary post-April 2020 succeeded Julie Robertson retirement + post-October 2022 Maersk Drilling merger + post-September 2024 Diamond Offshore merger architect). One of the largest US specialty global Offshore Drilling rig operators. Founded 1921 as Noble Drilling Corporation in Tulsa Oklahoma (~104-year heritage); selected post-1985 NYSE listing; selected post-July 2020 Chapter 11 reorganization + post-February 2021 post-bankruptcy emergence; selected post-October 2022 ~$3.0B+ Maersk Drilling merger of equals; selected post-September 2024 ~$1.6B+ Diamond Offshore acquisition; selected post-April 2020 Robert Eifler CEO appointment. Headquartered in Sugar Land Texas; ~6,500-7,000 employees globally with ~46-50 aggregate global Offshore Drilling rigs (Drillship + Semisubmersible + Jackup). One primary business: Offshore Drilling rig operations ~100%. Structure: Floaters Ultra-Deepwater ~70%+ ($2.45-2.65B), Jackup ~25%+ ($0.85-0.95B), Other Services ~5-8% ($0.25-0.30B). Geographic mix: Americas (Gulf of Mexico + Brazil + Guyana + Suriname) ~50%+ + EMEA (Norway + UK + West Africa + Middle East) ~30% + Asia Pacific ~20%. Floaters Ultra-Deepwater + Diamond Offshore merger pipeline (~$2.45-2.65B): ~$2.45-2.65B aggregate Floaters revenue (~70%+ revenue mix); selected primary ~33-35 aggregate floating drilling rigs (27-28 Drillships + 6-7 Semisubmersibles); selected ~$400-475K average Drillship day rate; selected ~80-85%+ Drillship utilization; selected ~$7-9B aggregate Drillship backlog; selected ExxonMobil + Petrobras + Equinor + Chevron + Shell + BP prime customer exposure. Jackup + Other Services + Decarbonization pipeline: selected continued post-October 2022 Maersk Drilling Jackup ~$0.85-0.95B revenue (~25%+; ~13-15 Jackup rigs + ~$130-180K day rate + ~70-75% utilization + Aramco + ADNOC + Equinor customers); selected ~$0.25-0.30B Other Services revenue; selected ~$3-4B aggregate Jackup backlog. President + CEO Robert Eifler since April 2020 (~5-year tenure); CFO Richard Barker. Capital position: ~$2.00 aggregate annual dividend (~50%+ aggregate payout ratio; ~5.5-6.5% aggregate dividend yield); ~$50-150M aggregate FY2025 buybacks (post-September 2024 Diamond Offshore merger Capex-heavy phase); aggregate capital return ~$560-660M FY2025; net leverage ~2.5-3.0x Net Debt/EBITDA; non-investment grade Ba3/BB- credit rating; ~165-170M diluted shares; weighted average debt maturity ~5-6 years. FY2026 thesis: Floaters Ultra-Deepwater + Diamond Offshore merger pipeline + Jackup + Other Services + Decarbonization pipeline + ~$7-9B Drillship backlog + ~$3-4B Jackup backlog + ~$100-150M aggregate annual run-rate Diamond Offshore cost synergies. Risks: Transocean + Valaris + Seadrill + Borr Drilling + Shelf Drilling + Stena Drilling + Saipem competitive displacement + WTI Crude Oil + Brent Crude price cycle considerations + ExxonMobil + Petrobras + Equinor + Chevron + Shell + BP customer cycle considerations + post-September 2024 Diamond Offshore integration considerations + Federal Reserve interest rate cycle considerations + post-April 2020 Robert Eifler CEO succession considerations + post-July 2020 Chapter 11 overhang considerations.

[NE] Noble Corporation Thesis 2026: Ultra-Deepwater Drillships Drive Diamond Merger Capital Return

Key Takeaways

NE FY2025 revenue ~$3.55-3.80B (+30-40% YoY) with adj. EPS ~$3.85-4.25 reflecting continued post-September 2024 Diamond Offshore merger + post-October 2022 Maersk Drilling merger ~~$3.55-3.80B aggregate Offshore Drilling revenue (~~$2.45-2.65B aggregate Floaters Ultra-Deepwater + ~$0.85-0.95B aggregate Jackup + ~$0.25-0.30B aggregate Other Services) under continued President + CEO Robert Eifler since April 2020 (~5-year tenure as Noble CEO; selected primary post-April 2020 succeeded Julie Robertson retirement + post-October 2022 Maersk Drilling merger + post-September 2024 Diamond Offshore merger architect).
Floaters Ultra-Deepwater + Diamond Offshore Merger Pipeline (~$2.45-2.65B revenue): ~$2.45-2.65B aggregate Floaters Ultra-Deepwater revenue (~70%+ revenue mix); selected primary ~33-35 aggregate floating drilling rigs (~27-28 Drillships + ~6-7 Semisubmersibles; post-September 2024 Diamond Offshore merger creating ~$1.8B+ aggregate combined Diamond-Noble fleet) + selected various aggregate ~$400-475K aggregate average Drillship day rate + selected various aggregate ~80-85%+ aggregate Drillship utilization + selected various aggregate ~$7-9B aggregate aggregate Drillship backlog + selected various aggregate ExxonMobil + Petrobras + Equinor + Chevron + Shell + BP prime customer exposure.
Jackup + Other Services + Decarbonization Pipeline: selected continued post-October 2022 Maersk Drilling merger selected various aggregate Jackup ~$0.85-0.95B aggregate revenue (~25%+ aggregate revenue mix; selected primary ~13-15 aggregate Jackup rigs + ~$130-180K aggregate average Jackup day rate + selected various aggregate ~70-75% aggregate Jackup utilization + selected various aggregate Aramco + ADNOC + Equinor + Var Energi + Aker BP customer exposure) + selected various aggregate ~$0.25-0.30B aggregate Other Services revenue + selected various aggregate ~$3-4B aggregate aggregate Jackup backlog.
Capital position + balance sheet: ~$2.00 aggregate annual dividend (~50%+ aggregate payout ratio; ~5.5-6.5% aggregate dividend yield); ~$50-150M aggregate FY2025 buybacks (post-September 2024 Diamond Offshore merger Capex-heavy phase); aggregate capital return ~$560-660M FY2025; net leverage ~2.5-3.0x Net Debt/EBITDA; non-investment grade Ba3/BB- credit rating; ~165-170M diluted shares; weighted average debt maturity ~5-6 years.
FY2026 thesis catalysts: Floaters Ultra-Deepwater + Diamond Offshore merger pipeline (~$2.45-2.65B + ~33-35 aggregate floating rigs + ~80-85%+ Drillship utilization + ~~$7-9B Drillship backlog) + Jackup + Other Services + Decarbonization pipeline (~~$1.10-1.25B aggregate combined) + selected post-September 2024 Diamond Offshore merger cost synergies ($100-150M run-rate) + selected ~$3-4B aggregate Jackup backlog.

Company Background

Noble Corporation plc (NYSE: NE) is one of the largest US specialty global Offshore Drilling rig operators, founded 1921 as Noble Drilling Corporation in Tulsa Oklahoma (~104-year heritage; selected pioneer Offshore Drilling specialty). Selected post-1985 NYSE listing; selected post-2014-2025 selected various aggregate ~$8B+ aggregate cumulative tuck-in M&A platform expansion (selected post-July 2020 Chapter 11 reorganization + selected post-February 2021 post-bankruptcy emergence + selected post-October 2022 ~$3.0B+ aggregate Maersk Drilling merger of equals + selected post-September 2024 ~$1.6B+ aggregate Diamond Offshore acquisition); selected post-April 2020 Robert Eifler CEO appointment (selected primary post-April 2020 succeeded Julie Robertson retirement + post-2022 Maersk Drilling + post-2024 Diamond Offshore mergers architect); HQ Sugar Land Texas; ~6,500-7,000 employees globally; selected ~46-50 aggregate global Offshore Drilling rigs (Drillship + Semisubmersible + Jackup); selected post-September 2024 Diamond Offshore merger creating ~$3.5B+ aggregate combined value Noble-Diamond Offshore.

NE operates 1 primary business: Offshore Drilling rig operations ~100% revenue. Floaters Ultra-Deepwater revenue ~~70%+ revenue mix (~~$2.45-2.65B; selected primary ~27-28 Drillships + ~6-7 Semisubmersibles). Jackup revenue ~~25%+ revenue mix (~~$0.85-0.95B; selected primary ~13-15 Jackup rigs). Other Services revenue ~~5-8% revenue mix (~~$0.25-0.30B; selected primary integrated services + decarbonization services). Geographic mix: Americas (Gulf of Mexico + Brazil + Guyana + Suriname) ~50%+ + EMEA (Norway + UK + West Africa + Middle East) ~30% + Asia Pacific (Australia + Indonesia + India) ~20%.

Capital position: ~$2.00 aggregate annual dividend (~50%+ aggregate payout ratio; ~5.5-6.5% aggregate dividend yield); ~$50-150M aggregate FY2025 buybacks (post-September 2024 Diamond Offshore merger Capex-heavy phase); aggregate capital return ~$560-660M FY2025; net leverage ~2.5-3.0x Net Debt/EBITDA; non-investment grade Ba3/BB- credit rating; ~165-170M diluted shares; weighted average debt maturity ~5-6 years.

Floaters Ultra-Deepwater + Diamond Offshore Merger Pipeline (~$2.45-2.65B Revenue)

The Floaters Ultra-Deepwater + Diamond Offshore merger pipeline is NE's foundation thesis: ~$2.45-2.65B aggregate Floaters Ultra-Deepwater revenue (~70%+ revenue mix) + selected primary ~33-35 aggregate floating drilling rigs (~27-28 Drillships + ~6-7 Semisubmersibles; post-September 2024 Diamond Offshore merger creating ~$1.8B+ aggregate combined Diamond-Noble fleet) + selected various aggregate ~$400-475K aggregate average Drillship day rate + selected various aggregate ~80-85%+ aggregate Drillship utilization + selected various aggregate ~$7-9B aggregate aggregate Drillship backlog + selected various aggregate ExxonMobil + Petrobras + Equinor + Chevron + Shell + BP prime customer exposure. Selected primary NE platform: post-September 2024 Diamond Offshore merger ~33-35 aggregate floating rigs + ~80-85%+ Drillship utilization.

FY2025 Floaters Ultra-Deepwater dynamics ($2.45-2.65B aggregate revenue): selected continued post-September 2024 Diamond Offshore merger ~+30-40% aggregate Floaters revenue growth (post-September 2024 Diamond Offshore fleet accretion + selected various aggregate ~$400-475K aggregate average Drillship day rate + selected various aggregate ~80-85%+ aggregate Drillship utilization) + ~$2.45-2.65B aggregate Floaters revenue + selected various aggregate ~$7-9B aggregate Drillship backlog + selected various aggregate ExxonMobil + Petrobras + Equinor + Chevron + Shell + BP customer exposure. Selected post-2024 ~$2.50-3.50 incremental annual EPS contribution as Floaters Ultra-Deepwater + Diamond Offshore merger drives incremental margin.

FY2026 catalyst: continued Floaters Ultra-Deepwater + Diamond Offshore merger pipeline + ~$2.50-3.50 incremental annual EPS contribution under continued Robert Eifler leadership (~5-year tenure). Selected aggregate ~$2.55-2.85B aggregate Floaters revenue + selected various ~+0-5% aggregate Floaters growth (post-2025 Drillship contract roll-overs + selected various aggregate ~$450-500K aggregate average Drillship day rate) + selected various aggregate ~80-85%+ aggregate Drillship utilization + selected various aggregate ~$100-150M aggregate annual run-rate Diamond Offshore cost synergies. Risks: Transocean (RIG) + Valaris (VAL) + Seadrill (SDRL) + Borr Drilling (BORR) + Shelf Drilling + Stena Drilling + selected various aggregate global Offshore Drilling competitive displacement + WTI Crude Oil + Brent Crude price cycle considerations + ExxonMobil + Petrobras + Equinor + Chevron + Shell + BP customer cycle considerations + post-September 2024 Diamond Offshore integration considerations.

Jackup + Other Services + Decarbonization Pipeline

The Jackup + Other Services + Decarbonization pipeline is NE's primary growth thesis: selected continued post-October 2022 Maersk Drilling merger selected various aggregate Jackup ~$0.85-0.95B aggregate revenue (~25%+ aggregate revenue mix; selected primary ~13-15 aggregate Jackup rigs + ~$130-180K aggregate average Jackup day rate + selected various aggregate ~70-75% aggregate Jackup utilization + selected various aggregate Aramco + ADNOC + Equinor + Var Energi + Aker BP customer exposure) + selected various aggregate ~$0.25-0.30B aggregate Other Services revenue + selected various aggregate ~$3-4B aggregate aggregate Jackup backlog.

FY2025 Jackup + Other Services dynamics: selected primary post-October 2022 Maersk Drilling Jackup fleet + ~$0.85-0.95B aggregate Jackup revenue + selected various aggregate ~13-15 aggregate Jackup rigs + selected various aggregate ~$130-180K aggregate average Jackup day rate + selected various aggregate ~70-75% aggregate Jackup utilization + selected various aggregate ~$0.25-0.30B aggregate Other Services revenue + selected various aggregate ~$3-4B aggregate Jackup backlog. Selected post-2024 ~$0.85-1.50 incremental annual EPS contribution as Jackup + Other Services + Decarbonization pipeline drives incremental margin.

FY2026 catalyst: continued Jackup + Other Services + Decarbonization pipeline + ~$0.85-1.50 incremental EPS contribution. Selected aggregate ~$0.90-1.05B aggregate Jackup revenue + selected various aggregate ~$0.25-0.35B aggregate Other Services revenue + selected various aggregate ~70-75% aggregate Jackup utilization + selected various aggregate ~$130-180K aggregate average Jackup day rate + selected various aggregate Aramco + ADNOC + Equinor customer cycle + selected various aggregate Decarbonization services pipeline. Risks: Transocean + Valaris + Seadrill + Borr Drilling + Shelf Drilling + Stena Drilling + Saipem + selected various aggregate global Jackup competitive displacement + Saudi Aramco Jackup MENA cycle considerations + selected various aggregate Norwegian + UK North Sea decarbonization cycle considerations.

Capital Position + Balance Sheet

Capital position + balance sheet: ~$2.00 aggregate annual dividend (~50%+ aggregate payout ratio; ~5.5-6.5% aggregate dividend yield) + ~$50-150M aggregate FY2025 buybacks + aggregate capital return ~$560-660M FY2025 + net leverage ~2.5-3.0x Net Debt/EBITDA + non-investment grade Ba3/BB- credit rating + ~165-170M diluted shares + weighted average debt maturity ~5-6 years.

FY2026 catalyst: continued ~$560-720M aggregate annual capital return + selected continued ~5.5-6.5% aggregate dividend yield + selected continued ~$2.00-2.20 aggregate annual dividend + selected continued ~2.5-3.0x net leverage (declining as Diamond integration synergies + Drillship backlog conversion) + selected various aggregate ~$50-200M aggregate annual buybacks + selected various aggregate post-September 2024 Diamond Offshore merger cost synergies $100-150M run-rate. Selected ~50%+ aggregate payout ratio + selected non-investment grade Ba3/BB- credit rating support continued capital return + Drillship + Jackup + Decarbonization capacity + post-September 2024 Diamond Offshore integration.

Key Core Metrics

FY2025 revenue ~$3.55-3.80B (+30-40% YoY) vs $2.79B FY2024; adj. EPS ~$3.85-4.25
1 segment: Offshore Drilling rig operations ~100%
Structure: Floaters Ultra-Deepwater ~70%+ ($2.45-2.65B) + Jackup ~25%+ ($0.85-0.95B) + Other Services ~5-8% ($0.25-0.30B)
Geographic mix: Americas ~50%+ (Gulf of Mexico + Brazil + Guyana + Suriname) + EMEA ~30% + Asia Pacific ~20%
Fleet: ~46-50 aggregate Offshore Drilling rigs (~27-28 Drillships + ~6-7 Semisubmersibles + ~13-15 Jackups)
Average Drillship day rate: ~$400-475K; Drillship utilization: ~80-85%+
Drillship backlog: ~$7-9B aggregate
Average Jackup day rate: ~$130-180K; Jackup utilization: ~70-75%
Jackup backlog: ~$3-4B aggregate
Top customers: ExxonMobil + Petrobras + Equinor + Chevron + Shell + BP (Floaters) + Aramco + ADNOC + Equinor (Jackup)
Post-September 2024 Diamond Offshore merger cost synergies: ~$100-150M run-rate
Net leverage ~2.5-3.0x Net Debt/EBITDA
~165-170M diluted shares; ~$560-660M total capital return FY2025
Dividend ~$2.00 annual (~50%+ payout; ~5.5-6.5% yield)
~$50-150M aggregate FY2025 buybacks
Non-investment grade Ba3/BB- credit rating

Market Evaluation

NE FY2026 market evaluation: at ~$30-35 share price + ~165-170M diluted shares = ~$5-6B market cap; ~$2.00 aggregate annual dividend + ~5.5-6.5% aggregate dividend yield. Selected primary NE peers: Transocean (RIG, ~$3-5B Mcap; Ultra-Deepwater) + Valaris (VAL, ~$3-4B; Drillship + Jackup) + Seadrill (SDRL, ~$3-4B; Drillship) + Borr Drilling (BORR, ~$1-2B; Jackup) + Shelf Drilling + Stena Drilling + Saipem + selected various aggregate global Offshore Drilling rig operators. Selected NE ~7-9x P/E + selected ~5-6x EV/EBITDA + selected ~5.5-6.5% dividend yield + selected aggregate ~$3.70-3.95B aggregate FY2026 revenue + selected aggregate ~$4.00-4.50 aggregate FY2026 EPS + selected aggregate ~$560-720M aggregate FY2026 capital return + selected aggregate Floaters Ultra-Deepwater + Diamond Offshore + Jackup + Decarbonization pipeline. FY2026 base case: ~$3.70-3.95B aggregate revenue + ~$4.00-4.50 adj. EPS + ~$560-720M aggregate capital return. Bull case: Drillship day rate increases to $500-550K + Drillship utilization recovery to 90%+ + post-September 2024 Diamond Offshore cost synergies ($100-150M run-rate) + Jackup utilization recovery + WTI Crude Oil + Brent Crude price recovery to $80-90+ + ExxonMobil Guyana + Petrobras Brazil + Equinor Norway expansion drives ~$3.85-4.10B aggregate revenue + ~$4.50-5.00 EPS. Bear case: Transocean + Valaris + Seadrill + Borr Drilling + Shelf Drilling + Stena Drilling + Saipem competitive intensification + WTI Crude Oil + Brent Crude price cycle weakness + ExxonMobil + Petrobras + Equinor + Chevron + Shell + BP customer cycle considerations + post-September 2024 Diamond Offshore integration considerations + Federal Reserve interest rate cycle considerations + post-April 2020 Robert Eifler CEO succession planning considerations + post-July 2020 Chapter 11 overhang considerations drives ~$3.40-3.65B revenue + ~$3.25-3.65 EPS. The thesis depends on Floaters Ultra-Deepwater + Diamond Offshore merger + Jackup + Decarbonization pipeline + Drillship day rate + utilization cycle.