MTZIndustrialsConstruction & Engineering·Sep 3, 2026·6 min read

[MTZ] MasTec Thesis 2026: Backlog Surge Positions Infrastructure Builder for Revenue Acceleration

MasTec FY25 revenue $14.3B (+16%); op income $653M (+50%); NI $399M (+145%); EPS $5.07. Adj EBITDA $1.15B (+14%); adj EPS ~$6.40 (above guide $6.34). Communications +32% revenue / +41% EBITDA FY25. Power Delivery +16% / +12% EBITDA. Clean Energy margin +110bp to 7.4%. Pipeline $2.1B (above guide). Backlog $16.8B (+33% YoY). NV2A + McKee acquisitions. FY26 guide: revenue $17B (+19%), adj EBITDA $1.45B (+26%, 8.5% margin / +50bp), adj EPS $8.40 (+30%).

MasTec 2025-26: $14.3B Revenue, FY26 EPS $8.40, Backlog +33%

FY25 revenue $14.3B (+16%); op income $653M (+50%); NI $399M (+145%); EPS $5.07. Adj EBITDA $1.15B (+14%); adj EPS ~$6.40 (above guide $6.34). Backlog $16.8B (+33% YoY, +$4.5B in FY25). Q4 rev +16%, adj EPS $2.07 (+44%). Acquired NV2A (construction mgmt) + McKee (water). FY26 guide: revenue $17B (+19%), adj EBITDA $1.45B (8.5% margin / +50bp), adj EPS $8.40 (+30%).

Key takeaways

  • FY26 guide is the headline: revenue $17B (+19%), adj EBITDA $1.45B (+26%), adj EPS $8.40 (+30%). These are big numbers — the operating leverage thesis is real. 130bp adj EBITDA margin expansion in Q1 FY26 alone.
  • Backlog at $16.8B (+33% YoY, +$4.5B in FY25, +$2B sequential). Forward visibility unprecedented. Pipeline segment expected to grow double-digit in 2026 with acceleration to 2027. Communications + Power Delivery + Clean Energy all delivering backlog growth.
  • Communications segment +32% revenue FY25 / +41% adj EBITDA. The structural compounder. Wireless + wireline expansion. Q4 alone +23% revenue growth.
  • Power Delivery transmission backlog +17% YoY. Second-largest project ever awarded mid-2026 (added by year-end). The data center / electrification capex super-cycle is here.
  • Pipeline segment recovering: revenue $2.1B FY25 (above guide), Q4 +50% YoY. Off the MVP project trough. FY26 expected double-digit growth.

Business

MasTec, Inc. is a leading specialty contractor in infrastructure construction services across five segments:

  • Communications (~25% of revenue, fastest growing). Wireline + wireless + 5G + fiber. Q4 +23% rev (FY +32%); EBITDA +16% Q4 (FY +41%). Margins improving 40-180bp.
  • Power Delivery (~25%). Transmission + distribution + substation. Q4 rev +13% (FY +16%); EBITDA +9% Q4 (FY +12%). Backlog +17% YoY. Greenlink project + 2nd largest transmission project ever in pipeline.
  • Clean Energy & Infrastructure (~25%). Solar + wind + storage + electrical. Q4 slightly above expectations; FY rev +15%, EBITDA margin +110bp to 7.4%. Backlog +30% sequential.
  • Pipeline Infrastructure (~15%). Long-haul + distribution gas. Q4 rev +50% YoY. FY $2.1B (above guide). Off MVP project trough; expected double-digit growth FY26+.
  • Other. Smaller segments + Corporate.

Strategic moves FY25:

  • NV2A acquired Q4 (construction management expertise)
  • McKee Utility Contractors acquired Q1 2026 (water infrastructure)
  • Backlog +$4.5B FY25
  • Combined cycle gas projects new segment opened
  • 4,000 new team members added Q2

FY25 financial performance

Metric (FY)2022202320242025
Revenue ($B)9.7812.0012.3014.30
Revenue YoYn/a+23%+3%+16%
Op income ($M)125152436653
Op margin1.3%1.3%3.5%4.6%
Net income ($M)33-50163399
Diluted EPS ($)0.42-0.642.065.07
Adj EPS ($)n/an/a~3.95~6.40
FCF ($M)89494973286
Capex ($M)-263-193-149-260
Total debt ($B)3.513.502.632.80
Dividends ($M)0000
Buyback ($M)-8100-77

The earnings progression: revenue +23% then digestion +3% then +16%. EPS -$0.64 FY23 → $2.06 FY24 → $5.07 FY25. Op margin 1.3% → 4.6% in 2 years. The cyclical recovery + Communications scale-up + pipeline project recovery is real.

FCF $286M (-71% YoY) reflects working capital tied up in pipeline projects + 4,000 new hires + acquisition costs. FY26 should see normalization.

Capital allocation

  • Capex: $-260M FY25 (1.8% of revenue, +75% YoY).
  • Dividends: $0 (no dividend).
  • Buybacks: $-77M FY25 (modest).
  • M&A: NV2A (Q4 2025) + McKee (Q1 2026) — bolt-on capability acquisitions.
  • Debt: $2.80B (+$170M YoY).
  • FCF: $286M (-71%) — working capital absorption.

FY26 outlook (per Q4 2025 call, 2026-02-27)

FY26 frameworkDetail
Revenue$17B (+19% YoY)
Organic growthMid-teens
Adj EBITDA$1.45B (8.5% margin)
Adj EBITDA margin expansion+50bp YoY
Adj EPS$8.40 (+30% YoY)
Q1 FY26 revenue+22% YoY
Q1 FY26 adj EBITDA marginJust over 7% (+130bp YoY)

The Q1 FY26 starting point (+22% revenue, +130bp margin) is exceptional. Sequential growth from Q2-Q3, seasonal decline in Q4 — typical industry pattern.

Pipeline + Communications + Power Delivery + Clean Energy all contributing to $17B. NV2A + McKee acquisitions add capability + revenue.

Key risks

  • Project execution. $16.8B backlog converts only with timely engineering + permitting + labor availability. Greenlink permitting delays cost FY25 already.
  • Commodity / material costs. Steel + cable + transformer pricing affects margin.
  • Combined cycle gas project execution. New segment with different risk profile vs existing businesses.
  • Working capital absorption. FCF $286M down 71% reflects working capital use; FY26 normalization is critical to capital return capacity.
  • Acquisition integration. NV2A + McKee + others — multiple integrations in progress.
  • End-market cyclicality. Specialty contractor model leveraged to utility + telco capex cycles; deceleration risk if utility budgets tighten.

Bottom line

MTZ FY25 is the cyclical inflection year: revenue +16%, op margin 3.5% → 4.6%, EPS +146%, backlog +33% to $16.8B. FY26 guide of $17B revenue (+19%) / $1.45B adj EBITDA (+26%) / $8.40 adj EPS (+30%) reflects operating leverage at scale + Communications + Power Delivery + Pipeline all contributing. Q1 FY26 +22% rev / +130bp margin is the proof. Risks are execution + working capital + acquisition integration. High-conviction infrastructure capex super-cycle play.

Citations

  • MasTec, Inc. FY25 Form 10-K (filed February 2026, SEC EDGAR).
  • MTZ Q4 2025 earnings call, 2026-02-27 — FY revenue $14.3B (+16%); adj EBITDA $1.15B (+14%); adj EPS $6.40 (above guide); backlog $16.8B (+33%); FY26 guide ($17B revenue, $1.45B adj EBITDA, $8.40 adj EPS); NV2A + McKee acquisitions.
  • MTZ Q3 2025 earnings call, 2025-10-31 — backlog $16.8B; adj EPS guide raised to $6.40 (+62% YoY); 2nd largest transmission project added.
  • MTZ Q2 2025 earnings call, 2025-08-01 — Communications +40% / EBITDA +55%; backlog +23% YoY; 4,000 new hires; FY EPS guide raised to $6.34.
  • MTZ Q1 2025 earnings call, 2025-05-02 — Non-pipeline EBITDA +60% YoY; Communications +35% / +82% EBITDA; FY guide raised to $13.65B revenue / $6.08 EPS.
  • Internal financial_statements view (consolidated annual + cash flow + capital structure).
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