Matador Resources Company (NYSE: MTDR) FY2025 revenue ~$3.95-4.25B (+18-25%) with adj. EPS ~$7.65-8.45 reflecting continued post-September 2024 Ameredev II acquisition + post-2014 Delaware Basin Permian focus ~$3.95-4.25B aggregate Oil + Gas + NGL + San Mateo Midstream revenue under continued Founder + Chairman + CEO Joseph Foran since 2003 (~22-year founding tenure as Matador Resources CEO). One of the largest US specialty Delaware Basin Permian Oil + Gas E&P + San Mateo Midstream JV companies. Founded 2003 as Matador Holdco by Joseph Foran in Dallas Texas (~22-year heritage; selected pioneer Delaware Basin Permian Oil + Gas E&P specialty); selected post-February 2012 NYSE IPO; selected post-2014 Delaware Basin Permian Eddy + Lea County New Mexico focus; selected post-2017 San Mateo Midstream JV (51% Matador + 49% Five Point Energy); selected post-2020-2024 ~$5B+ cumulative Delaware Basin tuck-in M&A platform expansion (Delaware tuck-in $280M+ + September 2024 ~$1.9B+ Ameredev II acquisition $24,000 net acres + ~26,000 BOE/day aggregate production accretion). Headquartered in Dallas Texas; ~525-575 employees globally with Delaware Basin Permian Oil + Gas E&P + San Mateo Midstream JV footprint (Eddy + Lea County New Mexico + Loving + Reeves + Ward County Texas). Two primary segments: Delaware Basin Permian Oil + Gas E&P ~90%+ ($3.55-3.80B), San Mateo Midstream JV ~10%+ ($0.40-0.45B). Geographic mix: Delaware Basin Permian ~99%+. Delaware Basin Permian Oil + NGL pipeline (~$3.55-3.80B): ~$3.55-3.80B Delaware Basin Permian Oil + NGL revenue (~90%+ revenue mix); selected primary post-2014 Delaware Basin Eddy + Lea County NM + Loving + Reeves + Ward County TX focus; selected post-September 2024 Ameredev II acquisition (24,000 net acres + ~26,000 BOE/day production accretion); selected ~$2.5-3.0B Delaware Basin net acreage; selected ~190-200K BOE/day production; selected ~58-62% Crude Oil mix; selected ~$70-80 WTI Crude Oil price exposure; selected ~$45-55 breakeven WTI per barrel. San Mateo Midstream JV (51%) + Pinnacle Pipeline + Reorganization pipeline: selected continued post-2017 San Mateo Midstream JV (51% Matador + 49% Five Point Energy) ~$0.40-0.45B revenue (~10%+; San Mateo I + II Delaware Basin gas + crude oil + water gathering + processing + ~$1.5-2.0B aggregate San Mateo gross plant); selected Pinnacle Pipeline; selected ~75% Free Cash Flow capital return commitment; selected ~$1.0-1.5B aggregate annual Free Cash Flow. Founder + Chairman + CEO Joseph Foran since 2003 (~22-year founding tenure); CFO Brian Willey. Capital position: ~$1.25 aggregate annual base + variable dividend (~15%+ aggregate payout ratio; ~2.0-2.5% aggregate dividend yield); ~$100-200M aggregate FY2025 buybacks (post-September 2024 Ameredev II acquisition Capex-heavy phase); aggregate capital return ~$255-355M FY2025; net leverage ~1.5-2.0x Net Debt/EBITDA; non-investment grade Ba3/BB- credit rating; ~125-130M diluted shares; ~6%+ Joseph Foran founder + management + institutional ownership concentration. FY2026 thesis: Delaware Basin Permian Oil + NGL pipeline + San Mateo Midstream JV + Pinnacle Pipeline + Reorganization pipeline + ~75% Free Cash Flow capital return commitment + ~$1.0-1.5B aggregate annual FCF + ~$50-75M aggregate annual run-rate Ameredev II cost synergies + Trump administration energy policy. Risks: ConocoPhillips + Diamondback Energy + Permian Resources + Coterra Energy + Devon Energy + Vital Energy + Civitas Resources + Chord Energy competitive displacement + WTI Crude Oil price cycle considerations + Henry Hub natural gas price cycle considerations + Federal Reserve interest rate cycle considerations + post-September 2024 Ameredev II integration considerations + Delaware Basin Permian well productivity decline considerations + post-2003 Joseph Foran founder succession planning considerations.

[MTDR] Matador Resources Thesis 2026: Delaware Basin Drives San Mateo Midstream Capital Return

Key Takeaways

MTDR FY2025 revenue ~$3.95-4.25B (+18-25% YoY) with adj. EPS ~$7.65-8.45 reflecting continued post-September 2024 Ameredev II acquisition + post-2014 Delaware Basin Permian focus ~$3.95-4.25B aggregate Oil + Gas + NGL + San Mateo Midstream revenue under continued Founder + Chairman + CEO Joseph Foran since 2003 (~22-year founding tenure as Matador Resources CEO; selected primary post-2003 founding architect with ~6%+ aggregate Foran founder ownership concentration).
Delaware Basin Permian Oil + NGL Pipeline (~$3.55-3.80B revenue): ~$3.55-3.80B aggregate Delaware Basin Permian Oil + NGL revenue (~90%+ revenue mix); selected primary post-2014 Delaware Basin Eddy + Lea County New Mexico + Loving + Reeves + Ward County Texas focus + selected primary post-September 2024 ~$1.9B+ Ameredev II acquisition (selected ~24,000 aggregate net acres + ~26,000 BOE/day aggregate production accretion) + selected various aggregate ~$2.5-3.0B aggregate Delaware Basin net acreage + selected various aggregate ~190-200K BOE/day aggregate production + selected various aggregate ~58-62% aggregate Crude Oil mix + selected various aggregate ~$70-80 aggregate WTI Crude Oil price exposure + selected various aggregate ~$45-55 aggregate breakeven WTI per barrel.
San Mateo Midstream JV (51%) + Pinnacle Pipeline + Reorganization Pipeline: selected continued post-2017 selected various aggregate San Mateo Midstream JV (~51% Matador + 49% Five Point Energy partnership) ~$0.40-0.45B aggregate revenue (~10%+ aggregate revenue mix; selected primary San Mateo I + II Delaware Basin gas + crude oil + water gathering + processing + selected various aggregate ~$1.5-2.0B aggregate San Mateo gross plant + property + equipment) + selected various aggregate Pinnacle Pipeline + selected various aggregate ~75% aggregate Free Cash Flow capital return commitment + selected various aggregate ~$1.0-1.5B aggregate annual Free Cash Flow.
Capital position + balance sheet: ~$1.25 aggregate annual base + variable dividend (~15%+ aggregate payout ratio; ~2.0-2.5% aggregate dividend yield); ~$100-200M aggregate FY2025 buybacks (post-September 2024 Ameredev II acquisition Capex-heavy phase); aggregate capital return ~$255-355M FY2025; net leverage ~1.5-2.0x Net Debt/EBITDA (post-September 2024 Ameredev II merger; declining as Free Cash Flow accumulates); non-investment grade Ba3/BB- credit rating; ~125-130M diluted shares; selected ~6%+ aggregate Joseph Foran founder + management + selected various aggregate institutional ownership concentration.
FY2026 thesis catalysts: Delaware Basin Permian Oil + NGL pipeline (~$3.55-3.80B + ~190-200K BOE/day production + ~~58-62% Crude Oil mix + Ameredev II integration) + San Mateo Midstream JV + Pinnacle Pipeline + Reorganization pipeline (~~$0.40-0.45B + 51% Matador JV stake + ~$1.5-2.0B gross plant) + selected ~75% Free Cash Flow capital return commitment + selected ~$1.0-1.5B aggregate annual Free Cash Flow.

Company Background

Matador Resources Company (NYSE: MTDR) is one of the largest US specialty Delaware Basin Permian Oil + Gas E&P + San Mateo Midstream JV companies, founded 2003 as Matador Holdco by Joseph Foran in Dallas Texas (~22-year heritage; selected pioneer Delaware Basin Permian Oil + Gas E&P specialty; selected primary post-2003 Joseph Foran founding architect with ~~6%+ aggregate Foran founder ownership concentration). Selected post-February 2012 NYSE IPO (~~$76M aggregate IPO proceeds February 2012); selected post-2014 Delaware Basin Permian Eddy + Lea County New Mexico focus + selected post-2017 San Mateo Midstream JV (~51% Matador + 49% Five Point Energy partnership) + selected post-2020-2024 selected various aggregate ~$5B+ aggregate cumulative Delaware Basin tuck-in M&A platform expansion (selected post-2020 ~$280M+ aggregate Delaware Basin tuck-in + selected post-September 2024 ~$1.9B+ Ameredev II acquisition (~24,000 net acres + ~26,000 BOE/day aggregate production accretion)); selected post-2003 Joseph Foran founding Chairman + CEO; HQ Dallas Texas; ~525-575 employees globally; selected various aggregate Delaware Basin Permian Oil + Gas E&P + San Mateo Midstream JV footprint (Eddy + Lea County New Mexico + Loving + Reeves + Ward County Texas).

MTDR operates 2 primary segments: Delaware Basin Permian Oil + Gas E&P ~~90%+ revenue (~~$3.55-3.80B), San Mateo Midstream JV ~~10%+ revenue (~~$0.40-0.45B). Geographic mix: Delaware Basin Permian (Eddy + Lea County New Mexico + Loving + Reeves + Ward County Texas) ~99%+.

Capital position: ~$1.25 aggregate annual base + variable dividend (~15%+ aggregate payout ratio; ~2.0-2.5% aggregate dividend yield); ~$100-200M aggregate FY2025 buybacks (post-September 2024 Ameredev II acquisition Capex-heavy phase); aggregate capital return ~$255-355M FY2025; net leverage ~1.5-2.0x Net Debt/EBITDA; non-investment grade Ba3/BB- credit rating; ~125-130M diluted shares; selected ~6%+ aggregate Joseph Foran founder + management + selected various aggregate institutional ownership concentration.

Delaware Basin Permian Oil + NGL Pipeline (~$3.55-3.80B Revenue)

The Delaware Basin Permian Oil + NGL pipeline is MTDR's foundation thesis: ~$3.55-3.80B aggregate Delaware Basin Permian Oil + NGL revenue (~90%+ revenue mix) + selected primary post-2014 Delaware Basin Eddy + Lea County New Mexico + Loving + Reeves + Ward County Texas focus + selected primary post-September 2024 ~$1.9B+ Ameredev II acquisition (selected ~24,000 aggregate net acres + ~26,000 BOE/day aggregate production accretion) + selected various aggregate ~$2.5-3.0B aggregate Delaware Basin net acreage + selected various aggregate ~190-200K BOE/day aggregate production + selected various aggregate ~58-62% aggregate Crude Oil mix + selected various aggregate ~$70-80 aggregate WTI Crude Oil price exposure + selected various aggregate ~$45-55 aggregate breakeven WTI per barrel. Selected primary MTDR platform: post-September 2024 Ameredev II merger ~190-200K BOE/day aggregate Delaware Basin Permian production + ~58-62% Crude Oil mix.

FY2025 Delaware Basin dynamics ($3.55-3.80B aggregate revenue): selected continued post-September 2024 ~+18-25% aggregate Delaware Basin revenue growth (post-September 2024 Ameredev II production accretion + selected various aggregate ~$70-80 aggregate WTI Crude Oil price + selected various aggregate ~190-200K BOE/day production) + ~$3.55-3.80B aggregate Delaware Basin revenue + selected various aggregate ~58-62% aggregate Crude Oil mix + selected various aggregate ~$45-55 aggregate breakeven WTI per barrel. Selected post-2024 ~$2.50-3.50 incremental annual EPS contribution as Delaware Basin Permian Oil + NGL pipeline drives incremental margin (post-September 2024 Ameredev II integration + ~$50-75M aggregate annual run-rate cost synergies).

FY2026 catalyst: continued Delaware Basin Permian Oil + NGL pipeline + ~$2.50-3.50 incremental annual EPS contribution under continued Joseph Foran founding leadership (~22-year founding tenure). Selected aggregate ~$3.65-3.95B aggregate Delaware Basin revenue + selected various ~+3-5% aggregate Delaware Basin growth (production stability + selected various aggregate WTI Crude Oil price cycle) + selected various aggregate ~190-200K BOE/day aggregate production + selected various aggregate ~$65-80 aggregate WTI Crude Oil price exposure + selected various aggregate ~$50-75M aggregate annual run-rate Ameredev II cost synergies. Risks: ConocoPhillips (COP; post-Marathon Oil acquisition) + Diamondback Energy (FANG) + Permian Resources (PR) + Coterra Energy (CTRA) + Devon Energy (DVN) + Vital Energy (VTLE) + Civitas Resources (CIVI) + selected various aggregate Delaware Basin Permian competitive displacement + selected various aggregate WTI Crude Oil price cycle considerations + selected various aggregate post-September 2024 Ameredev II integration considerations.

San Mateo Midstream JV (51%) + Pinnacle Pipeline + Reorganization Pipeline

The San Mateo Midstream JV + Pinnacle Pipeline + Reorganization pipeline is MTDR's primary growth thesis: selected continued post-2017 selected various aggregate San Mateo Midstream JV (~51% Matador + 49% Five Point Energy partnership) ~$0.40-0.45B aggregate revenue (~10%+ aggregate revenue mix; selected primary San Mateo I + II Delaware Basin gas + crude oil + water gathering + processing + selected various aggregate ~$1.5-2.0B aggregate San Mateo gross plant + property + equipment) + selected various aggregate Pinnacle Pipeline + selected various aggregate ~75% aggregate Free Cash Flow capital return commitment + selected various aggregate ~$1.0-1.5B aggregate annual Free Cash Flow.

FY2025 San Mateo + Pinnacle + Free Cash Flow dynamics: selected primary post-2017 San Mateo Midstream JV ~$0.40-0.45B aggregate revenue + selected various aggregate ~$1.5-2.0B aggregate San Mateo gross plant + property + equipment + selected various aggregate Pinnacle Pipeline + selected various aggregate ~75% aggregate Free Cash Flow capital return commitment + selected various aggregate ~$1.0-1.5B aggregate annual Free Cash Flow. Selected post-2024 ~$1.50-2.50 incremental annual EPS contribution as San Mateo + Pinnacle + Free Cash Flow pipeline drives incremental margin.

FY2026 catalyst: continued San Mateo Midstream JV + Pinnacle Pipeline + Reorganization pipeline + ~$1.50-2.50 incremental EPS contribution. Selected aggregate ~$0.45-0.50B aggregate San Mateo Midstream JV revenue + selected various aggregate Pinnacle Pipeline expansion + selected various aggregate ~75% aggregate Free Cash Flow capital return commitment + selected various aggregate ~$1.0-1.5B aggregate annual Free Cash Flow + selected various aggregate post-2024 potential San Mateo Midstream JV reorganization (e.g., MLP/c-corp separation or Five Point Energy buyout). Risks: ConocoPhillips + Diamondback Energy + Permian Resources + Coterra Energy + Devon Energy + Vital Energy + Civitas Resources + selected various aggregate Permian midstream competitive displacement + Federal Reserve interest rate cycle considerations + WTI Crude Oil price cycle considerations + Henry Hub natural gas price cycle considerations.

Capital Position + Balance Sheet

Capital position + balance sheet: ~$1.25 aggregate annual base + variable dividend (~15%+ aggregate payout ratio; ~2.0-2.5% aggregate dividend yield) + ~$100-200M aggregate FY2025 buybacks + aggregate capital return ~$255-355M FY2025 + net leverage ~1.5-2.0x Net Debt/EBITDA (post-September 2024 Ameredev II merger; declining as Free Cash Flow accumulates) + non-investment grade Ba3/BB- credit rating + ~125-130M diluted shares + selected ~6%+ aggregate Joseph Foran founder + management + selected various aggregate institutional ownership concentration.

FY2026 catalyst: continued ~$255-400M aggregate annual capital return + selected continued ~2.0-2.5% aggregate dividend yield + selected continued ~$1.25-1.40 aggregate annual base + variable dividend + selected continued ~1.5-2.0x net leverage (declining as Ameredev II integration synergies + Free Cash Flow accumulates) + selected various aggregate ~$100-200M aggregate annual buybacks + selected various aggregate ~75% Free Cash Flow capital return commitment. Selected ~15%+ aggregate payout ratio + selected non-investment grade Ba3/BB- credit rating + selected ~6%+ Joseph Foran founder ownership concentration support continued Delaware Basin Permian + San Mateo Midstream JV + Pinnacle Pipeline expansion.

Key Core Metrics

FY2025 revenue ~$3.95-4.25B (+18-25% YoY) vs $3.34B FY2024; adj. EPS ~$7.65-8.45
2 segments: Delaware Basin Permian Oil + Gas E&P ~90%+ ($3.55-3.80B) + San Mateo Midstream JV ~10%+ ($0.40-0.45B)
Geographic mix: Delaware Basin Permian (Eddy + Lea County New Mexico + Loving + Reeves + Ward County Texas) ~99%+
Production: ~190-200K BOE/day; Crude Oil mix: ~58-62%
Net acreage: ~$2.5-3.0B aggregate Delaware Basin
Ameredev II (post-September 2024 merger): ~24,000 net acres + ~26,000 BOE/day aggregate production accretion
WTI Crude Oil price exposure: ~$70-80; breakeven WTI: ~$45-55 per barrel
San Mateo Midstream JV: ~51% Matador + 49% Five Point Energy; ~$1.5-2.0B aggregate San Mateo gross plant
Free Cash Flow: ~$1.0-1.5B aggregate annual; ~75% aggregate Free Cash Flow capital return commitment
Net leverage ~1.5-2.0x Net Debt/EBITDA (post-September 2024 Ameredev II merger)
~125-130M diluted shares; ~$255-355M total capital return FY2025
Dividend ~$1.25 annual base + variable (~15%+ payout; ~2.0-2.5% yield)
~$100-200M aggregate FY2025 buybacks
Non-investment grade Ba3/BB- credit rating
~6%+ Joseph Foran founder + management ownership concentration

Market Evaluation

MTDR FY2026 market evaluation: at ~$45-65 share price + ~125-130M diluted shares = ~$6-8B market cap; ~$1.25 aggregate annual base + variable dividend + ~2.0-2.5% aggregate dividend yield. Selected primary MTDR peers: ConocoPhillips (COP, ~$120-140B Mcap; Permian + global) + Diamondback Energy (FANG, ~$25-30B; Permian) + Permian Resources (PR, ~$10-12B; Permian) + Coterra Energy (CTRA, ~$20-25B; Permian + Anadarko) + Devon Energy (DVN, ~$25-30B) + Vital Energy (VTLE, ~$1-2B; Permian) + Civitas Resources (CIVI, ~$3-4B) + Chord Energy (CHRD, ~$6-7B; Williston Bakken) + selected various aggregate Permian + Delaware Basin Oil + Gas E&P companies. Selected MTDR ~6-8x P/E + selected ~3-4x EV/EBITDA + selected ~2.0-2.5% dividend yield + selected aggregate ~$3.85-4.10B aggregate FY2026 revenue + selected aggregate ~$8.00-8.85 aggregate FY2026 EPS + selected aggregate ~$255-400M aggregate FY2026 capital return + selected aggregate Delaware Basin Permian + San Mateo + Pinnacle pipeline. FY2026 base case: ~$3.85-4.10B aggregate revenue + ~$8.00-8.85 adj. EPS + ~~$255-400M aggregate capital return. Bull case: WTI Crude Oil price recovery to $80-90 + Delaware Basin Permian production stability + post-September 2024 Ameredev II cost synergies (~~$50-75M run-rate) + ~75% Free Cash Flow capital return commitment + Trump administration energy policy + San Mateo Midstream JV reorganization drives ~$4.0-4.25B aggregate revenue + ~$8.50-9.50 EPS. Bear case: ConocoPhillips + Diamondback Energy + Permian Resources + Coterra Energy + Devon Energy + Vital Energy + Civitas Resources + Chord Energy competitive intensification + WTI Crude Oil price cycle weakness + Henry Hub natural gas price cycle considerations + Federal Reserve interest rate cycle considerations + post-September 2024 Ameredev II integration considerations + Delaware Basin Permian well productivity decline considerations + post-2003 Joseph Foran founder succession planning considerations drives ~$3.65-3.85B revenue + ~$6.75-7.65 EPS. The thesis depends on Delaware Basin Permian Oil + NGL + Ameredev II integration + San Mateo Midstream JV + Pinnacle Pipeline + ~75% FCF capital return commitment.