ArcelorMittal 2025-26: EBITDA $6.5B, Trade Protection Reset
FY25 revenue $61.35B (-2%); Op income $3.63B (+10%); NI $3.15B (+135%); EPS $4.11 (+143%). EBITDA $6.5B = $121/tonne. Cash flows $1.9B with $1.1B to high-return strategic projects + $0.7B shareholder return + $0.2B M&A. Base dividend +100% over 5 years to $0.60/share. EU CBAM + tariff-rate quota reset. FY26: higher production + shipments + positive FCF.
Key takeaways
- EPS more than doubled to $4.11. From $1.69 FY24 — the cleanest steel cycle recovery print among the global majors. Net income +135% to $3.15B.
- EBITDA $6.5B / $121 per tonne shipped. Strong unit economics through cycle moderation. Diversified asset footprint + optimized utilization + trade protection benefit.
- EU trade policy reset. EU Commission's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) + tariff-rate quota now reshaping European steel industry. ArcelorMittal — the largest European producer — is the primary beneficiary.
- Capital allocation: $1.9B cash flows. $1.1B to high-return strategic projects (decarbonization + capacity), $0.7B shareholder return, $0.2B M&A. Base dividend +100% over 5 years to $0.60/share.
- FY26: higher production + shipments + positive FCF. Mgmt confidence in operational improvements + trade protection driving FY26.
Business
ArcelorMittal is the largest steel producer in Europe + among the top 4 globally. Diversified across 5 reporting segments + corporate:
- Europe (~30-35% of revenue): Flat carbon steel + long products + tubular. Largest segment. Benefits from EU CBAM + tariff protection.
- NAFTA / Americas (~25-30% of revenue): US + Mexico + Canada operations. Includes Tubular Products NA + Long Carbon Americas + Calvert.
- Brazil (~15-20% of revenue): ArcelorMittal Brasil (full-cycle integrated steel + iron ore mining).
- ACIS (Asia + CIS + South Africa) (~10-15% of revenue): Kazakhstan + Ukraine + South Africa operations.
- Mining (~5-10% of revenue): Iron ore + coking coal mining feeding the steel operations + selective external sales.
Strategic positioning: largest European steel producer with global diversification. Massive decarbonization investment program (DRI + EAF transition) underway across European footprint.
FY25 financial performance
| Metric (FY) | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($B) | 68.28 | 62.44 | 61.35 |
| Gross profit ($B) | 5.78 | 5.79 | 5.91 |
| Op income ($B) | 2.34 | 3.31 | 3.63 |
| Op margin | 3.4% | 5.3% | 5.9% |
| EBITDA ($B) | 5.58 | 6.06 | 5.91 |
| Adj EBITDA ($B) | ~6.5 | ||
| Net income ($B) | 0.92 | 1.34 | 3.15 |
| Diluted EPS ($) | 1.09 | 1.69 | 4.11 |
| FCF ($B) | 3.03 | 0.45 | 0.47 |
| Capex ($B) | -4.61 | -4.41 | -4.34 |
| Total debt ($B) | 10.68 | 11.56 | 13.41 |
| Dividends ($M) | -369 | -393 | -421 |
| Buyback ($M) | -1,208 | -1,300 | -262 |
The earnings print: Revenue -2%, op margin +60bp to 5.9%, net income +135% reflecting cycle position recovery + lower DD&A. EPS $4.11 (+143%).
Capex held at $-4.3B annual run-rate — sustaining + decarbonization. Total debt $13.4B (+$1.85B YoY) — funding investment.
Capital allocation
- Capex: $-4.34B FY25 (7.1% of revenue) — heavy industrial capital intensity.
- Dividends: $-421M FY25 (+7% YoY). Base dividend $0.60/share doubled over 5 years.
- Buybacks: $-262M FY25 (vs $-1.30B FY24) — moderated.
- M&A: $0.2B FY25.
- Debt: $13.41B (+$1.85B YoY) funding capex + working capital.
FY26 outlook (per Q4 2025 call, 2026-02-05)
| FY26 framework | Direction |
|---|---|
| Steel production + shipments | Higher across regions |
| Free cash flow | Positive in 2026 and beyond |
| Capital allocation | Disciplined per established policy |
| Base dividend | $0.60/share |
| Trade protection | EU CBAM + tariff-rate quota reset |
| Operational improvements | Continuing |
Mgmt confident in generating positive FCF + disciplined capital allocation. Trade protection is the structural tailwind through FY26.
Key risks
- Steel cycle: Outside ArcelorMittal's control. Recession or capacity additions compress.
- Energy + raw material costs: Coking coal + iron ore + electricity costs all material.
- EU CBAM execution: New regulatory framework — implementation risks on tariff-rate quota + carbon costs.
- China steel exports: Despite trade protection, Chinese export pressure remains material global price-setter.
- FX: Multi-currency exposure (EUR + USD + BRL + others).
- Decarbonization capex execution: Multi-billion DRI + EAF transition programs across European footprint.
Bottom line
MT FY25 is the cycle position + EU trade protection + decarbonization investment year. EPS +143% to $4.11; EBITDA $6.5B / $121 per tonne; capital return $700M; base dividend doubled over 5 years. FY26: higher production + shipments + positive FCF + continued trade protection benefit. Risks are global steel cycle + China + FX + capex execution.
Citations
- ArcelorMittal SA FY25 Form 20-F (filed early 2026, SEC EDGAR; reports in USD).
- ArcelorMittal Q4 2025 earnings call, 2026-02-05 — EBITDA $6.5B = $121/tonne, cash flows $1.9B (allocation $1.1B strategic projects + $0.7B shareholder return + $0.2B M&A), base dividend $0.60 doubled over 5 years; FY26 outlook (higher production + shipments + positive FCF, EU CBAM + tariff-rate quota reset).
- Internal financial_statements view (consolidated annual + cash flow + capital structure).