[MMS] Maximus Thesis 2026: Government Services Health Federal State Outsourcing Compounder

Key Takeaways

• Maximus Inc (NYSE: MMS), the McLean-VA-headquartered Government-Services-Health-and-Federal-and-State-Outsourced + emerging-multi-cycle-Medicaid-Redetermination-and-Federal-Government-Outsourcing leader, closes FY2025 with selected various aggregate revenue ~$5.45-6.00B (~3-8% YoY-reflecting Government-Services-Health-and-Federal-and-State-Outsourcing-Demand + emerging-multi-cycle-Medicaid-Redetermination-Cycle + emerging-Federal-Government-Outsourcing), adjusted EBITDA ~$680-805M (~12-14% margins), adjusted EPS ~$6.30-7.65, net debt ~$1.05-1.30B (~1.3-1.9x leverage).
• President & CEO Bruce Caswell (since-2018, ~7+ year longtime-Maximus-CEO + Former-Maximus-COO + Former-Maximus-International-President + multi-cycle-Government-Services-Outsourcing-veteran) leads FY2026 turning on Medicaid-Redetermination-Federal-Eligibility-Support-Services + emerging-multi-cycle-Federal-Government-Outsourcing + emerging-State-Government-Outsourcing + emerging-Clinical-Services-and-Medicare-Medicare-Plan-Finder + emerging-Veterans-Affairs-Disability-and-Medical-Examination + emerging-International-Government-Services-UK-and-Australia + Bruce-Caswell-CEO-strategic-execution + multi-cycle-reliable-and-emerging-growing-dividend (~21+ year continuous, ~1.4-2.0% yield).
• Sector context: Industrials + Government-Services-Health-and-Federal-and-State-Outsourced + emerging-multi-cycle-Medicaid-Redetermination-and-Federal-Government-Outsourcing.

Company Background

Maximus Inc (NYSE: MMS), headquartered in McLean-VA, is a Government-Services-Health-and-Federal-and-State-Outsourced + emerging-multi-cycle-Medicaid-Redetermination-and-Federal-Government-Outsourcing leader providing distinctive multi-cycle Federal-Government-Outsourcing-Health-and-Human-Services + emerging-State-Government-Outsourcing-Medicaid-Eligibility-and-Enrollment + emerging-Clinical-Services-and-Medicare-Plan-Finder + emerging-Veterans-Affairs-Disability-and-Medical-Examination + emerging-International-Government-Services services to substantial multi-cycle Federal-Government-Agency-Customer (CMS-Centers-for-Medicare-and-Medicaid-Services + Federal-Eligibility-Support-Services-Marketplace + Veterans-Affairs-Disability-and-Medical-Examination + Department-of-Education-Student-Loan-Servicing) + multi-cycle-emerging-State-Government-Medicaid-Eligibility-and-Enrollment-Customer + multi-cycle-emerging-State-Government-Health-and-Human-Services-Outsourcing-Customer + multi-cycle-emerging-International-UK-and-Australia-Government-Services-Customer customer base.

The company has distinctive multi-cycle Maximus-and-McLean-VA-and-Government-Services-Outsourcing heritage: founded 1975 as Maximus-Founder-David-Mastran + 1997 substantial NYSE Maximus-IPO; 2018 substantial Bruce-Caswell-CEO-Succession-from-Richard-Montoni-Former-CEO + Multi-Cycle-Government-Services-Outsourcing-Strategy; 2018 substantial CMS-Federal-Eligibility-Support-Services-Marketplace-Customer-Service-Center-Operator-Renewal + emerging-multi-cycle-Federal-Eligibility-Support-Services-Marketplace; 2021 substantial Attain-acquired ($430M providing emerging-multi-cycle-Federal-Government-Outsourcing-Digital-Modernization); 2022 substantial Aidvantage-Department-of-Education-Student-Loan-Servicing-acquired + Federal-Student-Loan-Servicing-Build-Out; 2023-2024 substantial Medicaid-Redetermination-Cycle + Federal-Government-Outsourcing-Demand-Acceleration + Clinical-Services-and-Medicare-Plan-Finder-Build-Out; multi-cycle-disciplined-Government-Services-Outsourcing-Capital-Management; Bruce-Caswell-CEO-since-2018 + Multi-Cycle-Maximus-Capital-Management leadership-continuity + Multi-Cycle-Dividend-Capital-Management (~21+ year continuous dividend).

FY2025 closes with selected various aggregate revenue ~$5.45-6.00B (~3-8% YoY-reflecting Government-Services-Health-and-Federal-and-State-Outsourcing-Demand + emerging-multi-cycle-Medicaid-Redetermination-Cycle + emerging-Federal-Government-Outsourcing + emerging-Clinical-Services-and-Medicare-Plan-Finder), adjusted EBITDA ~$680-805M (~12-14% margins), adjusted EPS ~$6.30-7.65 (steady-Government-Services-Outsourcing-margin-execution), net debt ~$1.05-1.30B (~1.3-1.9x leverage), and ~57-58M shares outstanding under President & CEO Bruce Caswell (since-2018).

Deep-Dive 1 — Medicaid-Redetermination-Federal-Eligibility-Support-Services-and-Federal-Government-Outsourcing

The Government-Services-Outsourcing franchise deep-dive covers distinctive multi-cycle ~38,000-40,000 employees + ~McLean-VA-HQ + ~Globally-Positioned-Government-Services-Outsourcing-Customer-Service-Center-and-Office across US-and-UK-and-Australia. Revenue mix: US-Federal-Services ~52-58% revenue (CMS-Centers-for-Medicare-and-Medicaid-Services-Federal-Eligibility-Support-Services-Marketplace + Department-of-Education-Student-Loan-Servicing-Aidvantage + Veterans-Affairs-Disability-and-Medical-Examination + emerging-multi-cycle-Federal-Government-Outsourcing-Digital-Modernization-Attain) + US-State-and-Local-Services ~33-38% revenue (Medicaid-Eligibility-and-Enrollment-State-Outsourcing + State-Government-Health-and-Human-Services-Outsourcing + Clinical-Services-and-Medicare-Plan-Finder + emerging-multi-cycle-Medicaid-Redetermination-Cycle) + Outside-the-US ~8-13% revenue (International-UK-and-Australia-Government-Services + emerging-International-Government-Services-Expansion).

Substantial multi-cycle Federal-Government-Agency-Customer (CMS-Centers-for-Medicare-and-Medicaid-Services + Federal-Eligibility-Support-Services-Marketplace + Veterans-Affairs + Department-of-Education-Student-Loan-Servicing) + multi-cycle-emerging-State-Government-Medicaid-Eligibility-and-Enrollment-Customer + multi-cycle-emerging-State-Government-Health-and-Human-Services-Outsourcing-Customer + multi-cycle-emerging-International-UK-and-Australia-Government-Services-Customer. 1997-NYSE-Maximus-IPO + 2018-CMS-Federal-Eligibility-Support-Services-Marketplace-Renewal + 2021-Attain-acquired ($430M) + 2022-Aidvantage-Department-of-Education-Student-Loan-Servicing-acquired + 2023-2024-Medicaid-Redetermination-Cycle-Acceleration transformational-platform, emerging-multi-cycle Medicaid-Redetermination-Cycle (~Post-COVID-Public-Health-Emergency-PHE-Unwind-and-Medicaid-Eligibility-Redetermination-Build-Up) + emerging-Federal-Government-Outsourcing-Demand-Acceleration + emerging-State-Government-Outsourcing-Medicaid-Eligibility-and-Enrollment + emerging-Clinical-Services-and-Medicare-Plan-Finder + emerging-Veterans-Affairs-Disability-and-Medical-Examination-Build-Out + emerging-International-UK-and-Australia-Government-Services-Expansion + emerging-Federal-Government-Outsourcing-Digital-Modernization-Attain-Integration structural-tailwinds. Competing in Government-Services-Outsourcing space with Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH ~Federal-Defense-and-Civilian-Government-Outsourcing), Leidos (LDOS ~Federal-Defense-and-Civilian-Government-Outsourcing), CACI International (CACI ~Federal-Defense-and-Civilian-Government-Outsourcing), ICF International (ICFI ~Federal-Civilian-Government-Outsourcing), ManTech-acquired-Carlyle-2022 (private-Carlyle-Federal-Defense-Outsourcing), Science Applications International Corp (SAIC ~Federal-Defense-and-Civilian-Government-Outsourcing), General Dynamics IT (GD-Subsidiary-Federal-Outsourcing), Accenture Federal Services (ACN-Subsidiary-Federal-Outsourcing), Deloitte/PWC/EY/KPMG-Federal-Practice (Big-4-Federal-Consulting), Conduent (CNDT ~Government-Services-Outsourcing-Health-and-Transportation), Convey Health Solutions (private-TPG-acquired-2022), Public Consulting Group (private), MTM Inc (private-Medicaid-Transportation), Modivcare (MODV ~Medicaid-Transportation-and-Non-Emergency-Medical-Transportation); and private-equity-Carlyle-KKR-Blackstone-Apollo-Bain-CD&R-EQT-Permira-CVC-Bridgepoint-Cinven-Ardian-TPG-Veritas-Genstar-Hellman-Friedman-American-Securities-Investindustrial.

Deep-Dive 2 — Bruce-Caswell-CEO-and-2018-CMS-Federal-Eligibility-Support-Services-and-2021-Attain-and-2022-Aidvantage-Capital-Allocation

The Bruce-Caswell + 2018-CEO-succession + multi-decade compounder thesis + 1997-NYSE-Maximus-IPO-and-2018-CMS-Federal-Eligibility-Support-Services-and-2021-Attain-and-2022-Aidvantage deep-dive covers Bruce-Caswell-CEO (since-2018, 7+ year longtime-Maximus-CEO + Former-Maximus-COO + Former-Maximus-International-President + multi-cycle-Government-Services-Outsourcing-veteran) expertise + Richard-Montoni-Former-CEO-leadership-succession-2018 + multi-cycle-Maximus-Capital-Management leadership-continuity, 1975-Maximus-Founder-David-Mastran-founded + 1997-NYSE-Maximus-IPO + 2018-substantial-CMS-Federal-Eligibility-Support-Services-Marketplace-Customer-Service-Center-Operator-Renewal + 2021-substantial-Attain-acquired ($430M providing emerging-multi-cycle-Federal-Government-Outsourcing-Digital-Modernization) + 2022-substantial-Aidvantage-Department-of-Education-Student-Loan-Servicing-acquired + Federal-Student-Loan-Servicing-Build-Out + 2023-2024-substantial-Medicaid-Redetermination-Cycle + Federal-Government-Outsourcing-Demand-Acceleration + Clinical-Services-and-Medicare-Plan-Finder-Build-Out transformational-platform, multi-cycle-disciplined-Government-Services-Outsourcing-Capital-Management discipline, and multi-cycle-Dividend-Capital-Management ($1.20/yr, ~1.4-2.0% yield, ~16-22% payout, 21+ year continuous dividend) + multi-cycle-emerging-share-buyback ($50-200M/yr discretionary).

Track IG-equivalent balance sheet (Baa3/BBB- to Baa2/BBB ~1.3-1.9x leverage Government-Services-Outsourcing-and-Bolt-on-M&A + multi-cycle-emerging-Medicaid-Redetermination-Cycle-and-Federal-Government-Outsourcing-debt-paydown), multi-cycle-Maximus-Capital-Management leadership-continuity, and emerging-strategic-acquisition-target optionality (Government-Services-Outsourcing-M&A-Activity Booz Allen Hamilton, Leidos, CACI International, ICF International, Science Applications International Corp, General Dynamics IT, Accenture Federal Services, Deloitte/PWC/EY/KPMG-Federal-Practice).

Capital Position + Balance Sheet

Capital position is IG-equivalent (Baa3/BBB- to Baa2/BBB 1.3-1.9x leverage Government-Services-Outsourcing-and-Bolt-on-M&A + multi-cycle-emerging-Medicaid-Redetermination-Cycle-and-Federal-Government-Outsourcing-debt-paydown). Capital allocation reflects multi-cycle-Dividend-Capital-Management ($1.20/yr, ~1.4-2.0% yield, 16-22% payout, 21+ year continuous dividend), multi-cycle-emerging-share-buyback ($50-200M/yr discretionary), multi-cycle-disciplined-Government-Services-Outsourcing-Bolt-on-Acquisitions ($50-430M Attain/Aidvantage cycle), and multi-cycle-CapEx-Government-Services-Outsourcing-Customer-Service-Center-and-Technology ($50-100M/yr).

Net-debt position ~$1.05-1.30B reflects multi-cycle-Government-Services-Outsourcing-and-Bolt-on-M&A-financing. 2021-Attain-acquired + 2022-Aidvantage-acquired + 2023-2024-Medicaid-Redetermination-Cycle-Acceleration provides emerging-multi-cycle-Government-Services-Outsourcing-revenue-and-margin-accretion.

Key Core Metrics

• Revenue: ~$5.45-6.00B (~3-8% YoY-reflecting Government-Services-Health-and-Federal-and-State-Outsourcing-Demand)
• Adjusted EBITDA: ~$680-805M (~12-14% margins)
• Adjusted EPS: ~$6.30-7.65
• Net debt: ~$1.05-1.30B (~1.3-1.9x leverage)
• Shares outstanding: ~57-58M
• Dividend: ~$1.20/yr (~1.4-2.0% yield, ~16-22% payout, ~21+ year continuous dividend)
• Revenue mix: US-Federal-Services ~52-58% + US-State-and-Local-Services ~33-38% + Outside-the-US ~8-13%
• Geographic: US-Federal + US-State-and-Local + UK + Australia

Market Evaluation

At ~$70-100 per share, equity value ~$4.00-5.80B, EV ~$5.05-7.10B, providing ~11-16x EPS and ~7-10x EV/EBITDA. The market evaluation reflects emerging-multi-cycle Medicaid-Redetermination-Cycle (~Post-COVID-Public-Health-Emergency-PHE-Unwind-and-Medicaid-Eligibility-Redetermination-Build-Up) + emerging-Federal-Government-Outsourcing-Demand-Acceleration + emerging-State-Government-Outsourcing-Medicaid-Eligibility-and-Enrollment + emerging-Clinical-Services-and-Medicare-Plan-Finder + emerging-Veterans-Affairs-Disability-and-Medical-Examination-Build-Out + emerging-International-UK-and-Australia-Government-Services-Expansion + emerging-Federal-Government-Outsourcing-Digital-Modernization-Attain-Integration structural-tailwinds against Government-Services-Outsourcing-Competitive-Pressure (Booz-Allen-Hamilton + Leidos + CACI-International + ICF-International + ManTech-Carlyle + Science-Applications-International-Corp + General-Dynamics-IT + Accenture-Federal-Services + Deloitte-PWC-EY-KPMG-Federal-Practice + Conduent + Convey-Health-Solutions-TPG-acquired-2022 + Public-Consulting-Group + Modivcare) + emerging-Federal-Government-Outsourcing-Contract-Cycle-Variability + emerging-State-Government-Outsourcing-Medicaid-Eligibility-and-Enrollment-Cycle-Variability + emerging-Medicaid-Redetermination-Cycle-Post-COVID-PHE-Unwind-Eventual-Wind-Down structural-headwinds. Bruce-Caswell-CEO + multi-cycle-disciplined-Government-Services-Outsourcing-Bolt-on-Acquisitions execution remains primary FY2026 multi-cycle-emerging value-creation lever.