KMTIndustrials·Sep 3, 2026·8 min read

[KMT] Kennametal Thesis 2026: Aerospace Machining Recovery Offsets EV Powertrain Structural Decline

Kennametal FY2025 (ended June 2025) revenue ~$1.97B with adj. EBITDA ~$218M at ~11.1% as aerospace machining recovery (~$395M, +6% YoY, 32% of Metal Cutting) offset continued automotive ICE softening. EV powertrain structural headwind: BEV drivetrains require ~85% fewer machined parts than ICE, reducing cutting tool consumption per vehicle. Simplification/Modernization restructuring targeting ~$100M annualized savings. FY2026 thesis: aerospace toward $440-470M on Boeing/Airbus ramp + defense programs; non-ferrous EV machining (copper motors, aluminum battery enclosures) as emerging offset; margin recovery toward 12-13% as restructuring completes.

Key Takeaways

Kennametal Inc.'s fiscal year 2025 (fiscal year ended June 30, 2025) was the year the Pittsburgh-based industrial cutting tool manufacturer — supplying tungsten carbide inserts, drills, end mills, and tooling systems to metalworking operations in aerospace, automotive, general engineering, and energy — navigated the continued divergence between a robust aerospace machining cycle and a challenged automotive machining environment as the EV powertrain transition reduced demand for the complex, precision-machined ICE components (engine blocks, transmission cases, crankshafts) that have historically driven high cutting tool consumption. Total revenue reached approximately $1.92-2.02B, with adjusted EBITDA of approximately $205-230M at approximately 10-12% margins, and adjusted EPS of approximately $3.25-4.00 per diluted share. The Metal Cutting segment (approximately 65-70% of revenue) — selling carbide inserts, drills, and end mills directly to machining operations — faces the EV transition as a structural headwind: battery-electric vehicles require significantly fewer machined metal components than equivalent ICE vehicles (no engine block, no transmission case, no crankshaft, no camshaft, no exhaust manifold), reducing cutting tool consumption per vehicle produced even as total vehicle production is maintained. The Infrastructure segment (approximately 30-35% of revenue) — selling mining equipment tools, road surface tooling for asphalt milling machines, and underground drilling equipment — provides geographic and end-market diversification that partially offsets the automotive tooling headwind through energy infrastructure and mining capital expenditure cycles. CEO Sanjay Chowbey, who joined Kennametal in 2024 from Dover Corporation, has continued the Simplification/Modernization restructuring program initiated by his predecessor and is accelerating the portfolio focus toward higher-margin aerospace and energy applications where Kennametal's tungsten carbide formulations command premium pricing relative to lower-cost Asian commodity tool manufacturers.


Kennametal was founded in 1938 by Philip McKenna in Latrobe, Pennsylvania — developing tungsten carbide cutting tools for machining high-speed steel at a time when the automotive industry's mass production demands were pushing cutting tool technology beyond the limits of high-speed steel. The company's core competency in tungsten carbide sintering and coating technology (developing hard, wear-resistant coatings like TiN, TiAlN, and CVD diamond that extend tool life in demanding machining applications) has remained consistent through eight decades of industrial manufacturing cycles. The company's global footprint (manufacturing in the US, Germany, India, and China; selling to customers in 100+ countries) reflects the universal requirement for precision metalcutting across all manufacturing economies.

Business Structure

Kennametal reports across two segments that reflect distinct end markets and product types.

Metal Cutting (~67% of revenue, ~$1.29-1.35B): Carbide inserts, drills, end mills, milling cutters, and threading tools sold to metalworking operations in aerospace (turbine blade and structural component machining), automotive (powertrain, chassis, and body component machining), general engineering (industrial equipment, medical devices, mold and die), and energy (oil country tubular goods, valve and pump components). Metal Cutting's primary competitive dynamics involve tool life (how many parts can be machined before the insert is worn), speed performance (enabling customers to run machining operations faster without sacrificing quality), and price per machined part. Kennametal competes with Sandvik Coromant, Iscar (Berkshire subsidiary), Seco Tools, and low-cost Asian manufacturers who compete primarily on price in commodity insert grades.

Infrastructure (~33% of revenue, ~$630-670M): Mining tools (drag bits, rotary drill bits, and coal cutting picks for surface and underground mining), road surface tooling (carbide-tipped picks for asphalt milling machines used in road resurfacing), and underground drilling tools. The Infrastructure segment serves fundamentally different end markets than Metal Cutting: mining capital expenditure cycles (driven by copper, coal, and potash demand), road construction and maintenance spending (IIJA infrastructure bill in the US providing multi-year spending visibility), and energy infrastructure development. Infrastructure tools are consumable — road milling picks and mining drag bits wear rapidly and require frequent replacement — creating an aftermarket revenue stream that is more stable than capital equipment sales.

Key Core Metrics Performance

Revenue and Margin Under Restructuring (FY2021–FY2025)

Fiscal YearNet RevenueAdj. EBITDAAdj. EBITDA MarginAdj. EPSNet Debt
FY2021~$1.86B~$195M~10.5%~$2.85~$600M
FY2022~$2.07B~$250M~12.1%~$3.75~$570M
FY2023~$2.07B~$240M~11.6%~$3.50~$540M
FY2024~$1.98B~$215M~10.9%~$3.10~$510M
FY2025~$1.97B~$218M~11.1%~$3.40~$490M

Revenue slightly declining from FY2022 peak ($2.07B) as automotive tooling volumes softened from the post-COVID production recovery; margins compressed before partially recovering as the Simplification/Modernization restructuring program (approximately $100M in annualized savings target) improved manufacturing efficiency.

Metal Cutting End-Market Mix Shift (FY2022–FY2025)

Fiscal YearAerospace RevenueAutomotive RevenueGeneral Eng.Aero % of MCAuto % of MC
FY2022~$295M~$420M~$465M~22.8%~32.5%
FY2023~$340M~$390M~$470M~27.1%~31.1%
FY2024~$370M~$355M~$440M~29.9%~28.7%
FY2025~$395M~$330M~$435M~31.8%~26.6%

The mix shift from automotive (~32.5% → ~26.6% of Metal Cutting) toward aerospace (~22.8% → ~31.8%) is both strategically intentional and market-driven: aerospace machining generates higher margins (aerospace-grade titanium, nickel superalloy, and composite machining commands premium tool prices), and the aerospace production ramp (Boeing 737 MAX recovery, Airbus A320neo production acceleration, defense aircraft programs) creates multi-year demand visibility.

EV Machining Impact Assessment (FY2022–FY2025)

MetricICE VehicleBEVDeltaKennametal Impact
Machined parts per powertrain~2,500~400-84%~$65 tool cost per vehicle → ~$10
Cutting tool cost per vehicle~$65-85~$8-12-85%Structural headwind
New machining requirementsStandard alloy steelsCopper/aluminum EV motorDifferentOpportunity in non-ferrous
Annual automotive cutting tool market~$12-14BN/AIn transitionMarket shrinks as EV mix rises

The EV transition represents the most significant structural challenge to Kennametal's automotive business: each percentage point increase in global BEV mix at OEMs reduces automotive cutting tool demand by approximately 0.8-0.85% assuming constant vehicle production volume. With global BEV penetration approaching 20-25% by FY2027, automotive Metal Cutting revenue faces approximately 15-20% structural headwind from this mix shift alone.

Market Evaluation

Kennametal trades at approximately 12-18x forward adjusted EPS and approximately 9-12x forward adjusted EBITDA — a modest premium to cyclical industrial peers that reflects its consumable product model (cutting tools must be replaced, not maintained like capital equipment) and the partial offset from aerospace growth. The bull case is aerospace-led margin recovery: if aerospace machining revenue reaches $450-500M by FY2027 while the Simplification/Modernization program drives margins toward 13-14%, EBITDA could approach $270-290M — supporting EPS of $4.50-5.00 and justifying a 14-16x multiple as the quality of earnings improves. The bear case is EV transition acceleration: if global BEV penetration reaches 30%+ by FY2027 faster than anticipated, automotive cutting tool revenue could decline to $250-280M — requiring an accelerated portfolio pivot toward aerospace, energy, and general engineering that may not be achievable at sufficient scale to offset the automotive decline.

Tungsten Carbide Raw Material Dynamics and the Non-Ferrous Machining Opportunity

Kennametal's competitive position is built on tungsten carbide — an extremely hard and wear-resistant ceramic material (second only to diamond in hardness) that enables cutting tools to machine steel, titanium, nickel superalloys, and other hard metals at high speeds and temperatures without losing their cutting edge. Tungsten is a critical mineral primarily sourced from China (approximately 80% of global production), creating a raw material concentration risk: Kennametal's cost structure is meaningfully influenced by tungsten APT (ammonium paratungstate) prices, which can be volatile based on Chinese export policy and global demand cycles. Kennametal mitigates this through long-term supply contracts with non-Chinese producers (Australian, Canadian, and Vietnamese mines) and by operating a tungsten recycling program that recovers tungsten carbide from worn cutting tools — reducing virgin material dependency and improving the sustainability profile.

The non-ferrous machining opportunity is the strategic hedge against EV powertrain displacement: electric vehicle drivetrains introduce large-volume machining requirements for copper windings in electric motors, aluminum battery enclosures, and silicon carbide power electronics heat sinks — materials that require different cutting tool geometries and coatings than steel machining but where Kennametal's substrate and coating R&D capabilities can develop competitive products. If Kennametal captures 15-20% of the emerging EV non-ferrous machining market (estimated at $2-3B globally by FY2028), it could add $300-450M in incremental revenue that partially offsets the ICE powertrain machining decline — a scenario that would significantly change the market's perception of Kennametal as an automotive-declining-cycle story toward an EV-transition beneficiary.

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