Kinross Gold 2025-26: 2M Oz Production, FCF $2.5B, AISC $17.30/oz
FY25 revenue $7.17B (+39%); Op income $3.10B (+101%); NI $2.43B (+156%); EPS $1.99 (+158%). Production over 2M ounces (achieved cost guidance). Margins +66% on +43% gold price. FCF $769M Q4 / $2.5B FY. Tasiast + Paracatu anchored portfolio (>1.1M oz). FY26 guide: 2M oz (~490-510K/quarter), cost of sales $13.60/oz, AISC $17.30/oz at $4,500 gold.
Key takeaways
- Net income +156% to $2.43B. Gold price strength + production discipline drove dramatic earnings expansion. Margins +66% (vs +43% gold price) — operating leverage on cost discipline.
- FCF $2.5B FY25 ($769M Q4 alone). Strongest cash generation year in Kinross history. Returned significant capital + balance sheet strengthening.
- Production over 2M ounces — achieved cost guidance. Tasiast + Paracatu anchored at >1.1M oz combined. La Coipa + US assets contributed.
- FY26 production guide: 2M ounces evenly distributed (~490-510K/quarter). AISC $17.30/oz at $4,500 gold price assumption — +10% AISC inflation on royalties + costs + mine plan sequencing.
- Portfolio progress. Great Bear + Lobo Marte projects advancing. Reserve base + organic growth pipeline expanding.
Business
Kinross Gold is a mid-tier global gold producer with assets in 4 countries:
- Mauritania (Tasiast) (~30% of production): Highest-margin asset. Open-pit + heap leach + mill operations.
- Brazil (Paracatu) (~30% of production): Long-life open-pit + mill. Anchor producer.
- Chile (La Coipa) (~10-15% of production): Restarted in recent years; on guidance.
- United States (Round Mountain + Bald Mountain + Manh Choh) (~25% of production): Nevada + Alaska operations.
- Pipeline projects: Great Bear (Canada, exploration/development), Lobo Marte (Chile, advanced project).
Strategic positioning: mid-tier global gold producer with diversified geographic mix. Differentiation through Tasiast + Paracatu cost position + Great Bear pipeline upside.
FY25 financial performance
| Metric (FY) | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($B) | 4.24 | 5.15 | 7.17 |
| Gross profit ($B) | 1.16 | 1.88 | 3.40 |
| Op income ($B) | 0.80 | 1.54 | 3.10 |
| Op margin | 18.9% | 29.9% | 43.2% |
| EBITDA ($B) | 1.76 | 2.68 | 4.27 |
| Net income ($B) | 0.42 | 0.95 | 2.43 |
| Diluted EPS ($) | 0.34 | 0.77 | 1.99 |
| FCF ($B) | 0.51 | 1.37 | 2.57 |
| Capex ($B) | -1.10 | -1.08 | -1.22 |
| Total debt ($B) | 2.25 | 1.45 | 0.78 |
| Dividends ($M) | -147 | -148 | -155 |
| Buyback ($M) | 0 | 0 | -611 |
The earnings print: Revenue +39% on gold + production; op margin +1,330bp to 43.2%; NI +156%; EPS $1.99.
Total debt collapsed to $778M (-$674M YoY) — major balance sheet repair. Buyback initiated $-611M FY25.
Capital allocation
- Capex: $-1.22B FY25 (17% of revenue). Heavy for mining.
- Dividends: $-155M FY25 (+5% YoY).
- Buybacks: $-611M FY25 (initiated). Material capital return.
- M&A: minimal organic.
- Debt: $778M (-$674M YoY). Major paydown — strengthens balance sheet.
FY26 outlook (per Q4 2025 call, 2026-02-19)
| FY26 guide | Range / point |
|---|---|
| Production | 2M ounces (490-510K per quarter) |
| Cost of sales per ounce | $13.60 |
| All-in sustaining cost (AISC) per ounce | $17.30 (at $4,500 gold) |
| AISC YoY change | +10% (royalties + cost inflation + mine plan sequencing) |
| Capital expenditures | (per detail) |
The +10% AISC increase reflects: higher royalties (post-gold-price spike), cost inflation, mine plan sequencing toward higher-strip-ratio. Earnings sensitivity: gold price + production are the primary levers.
Key risks
- Gold price: Single largest external variable. Production cost is fixed-ish; revenue moves with spot.
- Country risk: Mauritania + Brazil + Chile + US — multi-jurisdictional regulatory + tax + political exposure.
- Mine plan sequencing: Strip ratio + grade variability between mines + within mines.
- Capital project execution: Great Bear + Lobo Marte advancing; budget + schedule discipline.
- FX: Local currency cost exposure to BRL + CLP + AUD.
- Reserve depletion: Ongoing exploration + acquisition required to maintain reserve base.
Bottom line
KGC FY25 is the gold cycle + production discipline year. Revenue +39%, NI +156%, EPS $1.99, FCF $2.5B record. Buyback initiated $611M. Total debt cut $674M. FY26 guide 2M oz at AISC $17.30. Risks are gold price + country + mine plan + capex execution. Quality mid-tier gold producer with strong cash generation.
Citations
- Kinross Gold Corporation FY25 Form 10-K (filed February 2026, SEC EDGAR + SEDAR Canada).
- KGC Q4 2025 earnings call, 2026-02-19 — production over 2M ounces achieved cost guidance, margins +66% vs +43% gold price; FCF $769M Q4 / $2.5B FY; Tasiast + Paracatu anchor (>1.1M oz combined); FY26 guide (2M oz, $13.60/oz cost of sales, AISC $17.30/oz at $4,500 gold, AISC +10%).
- Internal financial_statements view (consolidated annual + cash flow + capital structure).