[IDYA] IDEAYA Biosciences Thesis 2026: Synthetic-Lethality Precision-Oncology Compounder
IDEAYA Biosciences (NASDAQ: IDYA), headquartered in South San Francisco, California, is a Synthetic-Lethality-Precision-Oncology + emerging-multi-cycle-IDE161-IDE397-Phase-3-and-Phase-2 leader providing distinctive multi-cycle IDE397-MAT2A-Inhibitor + emerging-IDE161-PARP-and-Pol-Theta-Inhibitor + emerging-Darovasertib-MGV-001-Uveal-Melanoma + emerging-IDE275-Werner-Helicase-WRN-Inhibitor services to substantial multi-cycle Pre-Commercial-Biotech-Clinical-Development-Patient-and-Physician-and-Health-Plan-target + multi-cycle-emerging-IDE397-MTAP-Deletion-Lung-and-Esophageal-and-Pancreatic-Patient-Population ~10,000-15,000 US-Patient + multi-cycle-emerging-IDE161-Pol-Theta-Patient-Population ~5,000-10,000 US-Patient + multi-cycle-emerging-Darovasertib-Uveal-Melanoma-Patient-Population ~2,000-3,000 US-Patient. The company has distinctive multi-cycle IDEAYA-Biosciences-and-South-San-Francisco-CA-and-Synthetic-Lethality-Precision-Oncology heritage: founded 2015 as IDEAYA-Biosciences-Yujiro-Hata-Founder-and-Daniel-Simon-Co-Founder; 2019 NASDAQ IDEAYA-Biosciences-IPO ($101M proceeds); 2020 substantial GSK-GlaxoSmithKline-Collaboration-Synthetic-Lethality-Phase-2-and-Phase-3; 2024 substantial Pfizer-Darovasertib-MGV-001-Uveal-Melanoma-Acquired ($210M providing emerging-multi-cycle-Darovasertib-Phase-3-Uveal-Melanoma); 2024 substantial Follow-On-Financing-and-Cash-Runway-Extension; 2024 substantial IDE397-Phase-2-and-IDE161-Phase-2-Clinical-Trial-Readouts; multi-cycle-disciplined-Synthetic-Lethality-Clinical-Stage-Pipeline-Advancement. FY2025 closes with selected various aggregate revenue ~$0M (pre-Commercial-Biotech-Phase-3-and-Phase-2-clinical-development), adjusted EBITDA ~$-225 to -165M (Pre-Commercial-Biotech-Clinical-Development-Burn), adjusted EPS ~$-2.85 to -2.05, net cash ~$1.10-1.30B (multi-cycle-Pre-Commercial-Biotech-Cash-Runway-into-2028), and ~80-85M shares outstanding under President & CEO Yujiro Hata. The IDE397-MAT2A-and-IDE161-PARP-and-Darovasertib-Uveal-Melanoma-and-Pipeline franchise deep-dive covers distinctive multi-cycle ~110-130 employees + ~South-San-Francisco-CA-HQ-Clinical-Development-Biotech-Office across US + emerging multi-jurisdiction-international (Multi-Clinical-Trial-Site-Europe-and-Asia-Pacific), Clinical-Stage-Biotech-Pipeline ~0% pre-Commercial-Biotech-revenue (IDE397-MAT2A-MTAP-Deletion-Phase-2 + IDE161-PARP-and-Pol-Theta-Phase-2 + Darovasertib-MGV-001-Uveal-Melanoma-Phase-3 + IDE275-Werner-Helicase-WRN-Phase-1 + Pipeline) + Emerging-GSK-Collaboration-Revenue ~0-1%, 2019-NASDAQ-IPO + 2020-GSK-Synthetic-Lethality-Collaboration + 2024-Pfizer-Darovasertib-MGV-001-acquired + 2024-Follow-On-Financing transformational-platform, emerging-multi-cycle Synthetic-Lethality-Precision-Oncology + emerging-MAT2A-MTAP-Deletion-Cancer + emerging-PARP-and-Pol-Theta-Cancer + emerging-Uveal-Melanoma + emerging-Werner-Helicase-WRN-MSI-Cancer + emerging-Biotech-M&A-Activity structural-tailwinds, competing in Synthetic-Lethality-Precision-Oncology space with AstraZeneca, Repare Therapeutics, Tango Therapeutics, Cyteir, BeiGene, Schrödinger, Kura Oncology, Mirati/BMY, Amgen, Pfizer (Darovasertib-divestor), Merck, BMS, Roche, Eli Lilly, Novartis, Sanofi, AbbVie, GSK (collaboration-partner), Vertex, Regeneron, Biogen; and private-equity-Flagship-ARCH-Third-Rock-Atlas-Polaris-Versant-OrbiMed-RA-Capital-Baker-Bros-Perceptive-Foresite-Avoro-TPG-Wildcat-Alger-Casdin. The Yujiro-Hata + Founder-CEO + multi-decade compounder thesis + 2020-GSK-and-2024-Pfizer-Darovasertib deep-dive covers Yujiro-Hata-Founder-CEO (~25+ year longtime-IDEAYA-Founder-and-Co-Founder-Daniel-Simon + Former-Forma-Therapeutics-CFO + Former-Onyx-Pharmaceuticals-veteran) expertise, 2015-IDEAYA-Biosciences-founding + 2019-NASDAQ-IPO + 2020-GSK-Synthetic-Lethality-Collaboration + 2024-Pfizer-Darovasertib-MGV-001-acquired + 2024-Follow-On-Financing-and-Cash-Runway-Extension transformational-platform, no-dividend (Pre-Commercial-Biotech-Clinical-Development-Burn). Capital position is Pre-Commercial-Biotech (Not-Rated-Pre-Commercial-Biotech + Pre-Commercial-Biotech-Cash-Runway-into-2028). At ~$22-32 per share, equity value ~$1.80-2.70B, providing Pre-Commercial-Biotech-Phase-3-and-Phase-2-Clinical-Trial-Readout-Option-Value.
IDEAYA Biosciences Thesis 2026: A Synthetic-Lethality Precision-Oncology Compounder
Key Takeaways
- IDEAYA Biosciences (NASDAQ: IDYA), the South-San-Francisco-CA-headquartered Synthetic-Lethality-Precision-Oncology + emerging-multi-cycle-IDE161-IDE397-Phase-3-and-Phase-2 leader, closes FY2025 with selected various aggregate revenue ~$0M (pre-Commercial-Biotech-Phase-3-and-Phase-2-clinical-development), adjusted EBITDA ~$-225 to -165M (Pre-Commercial-Biotech-Clinical-Development-Burn), adjusted EPS ~$-2.85 to -2.05 (pre-Commercial-Biotech-loss), net cash ~$1.10-1.30B (multi-cycle-Pre-Commercial-Biotech-Cash-Runway-into-2028), and ~~80-85M shares under President & CEO Yujiro Hata (since-Founder-2015 + ~~25+ year longtime-IDEAYA-Founder-and-Co-Founder + Former-Forma-Therapeutics-CFO + Former-Onyx-Pharmaceuticals-veteran).
- Operates substantial multi-cycle ~~110-130 employees + ~~South-San-Francisco-CA-HQ-Clinical-Development-Biotech-Office providing distinctive multi-cycle Synthetic-Lethality-Precision-Oncology + multi-cycle-emerging-IDE397-MAT2A-Inhibitor-MTAP-Deletion-Phase-2 + multi-cycle-emerging-IDE161-PARP-Inhibitor-and-Pol-Theta-Phase-2 + multi-cycle-emerging-Darovasertib-MGV-001-Uveal-Melanoma-Phase-3-and-PARP-Inhibitor + multi-cycle-emerging-Pipeline platform.
- Distinctive multi-cycle IDEAYA-Biosciences-and-South-San-Francisco-CA-and-Synthetic-Lethality-Precision-Oncology heritage: founded 2015 as IDEAYA-Biosciences-Yujiro-Hata-Founder-and-Daniel-Simon-Co-Founder + 2017-Series-B-Financing + 2019 NASDAQ IDEAYA-Biosciences-IPO ($101M proceeds providing distinctive Public-Listing-and-Clinical-Development-Funding) + 2020-substantial-GSK-GlaxoSmithKline-Collaboration-Synthetic-Lethality-Phase-2-and-Phase-3 + 2024-substantial-Pfizer-Darovasertib-MGV-001-Uveal-Melanoma-Acquired ($210M providing emerging-multi-cycle-Darovasertib-Phase-3-Uveal-Melanoma + Synthetic-Lethality-Pipeline-Expansion) + 2024-substantial-Follow-On-Financing-and-Cash-Runway-Extension + 2024-substantial-IDE397-Phase-2-and-IDE161-Phase-2-Clinical-Trial-Readouts + multi-cycle-disciplined-Synthetic-Lethality-Clinical-Stage-Pipeline-Advancement.
- Distinctive multi-cycle Clinical-Stage-Biotech-Pipeline (~~0% pre-Commercial-Biotech-revenue, pre-Commercial-Biotech-Phase-3-and-Phase-2-clinical-development + multi-cycle-emerging-IDE397-MAT2A-Inhibitor-MTAP-Deletion-Lung-and-Esophageal-and-Pancreatic-Phase-2 + multi-cycle-emerging-IDE161-PARP-Inhibitor-and-Pol-Theta-Phase-2 + multi-cycle-emerging-Darovasertib-MGV-001-Uveal-Melanoma-Phase-3-acquired-Pfizer-2024 + multi-cycle-emerging-IDE275-Werner-Helicase-WRN-Inhibitor-Phase-1 + multi-cycle-emerging-Pipeline-and-Discovery) + Emerging-GSK-Collaboration-Revenue (~~0-1% pre-Commercial-Biotech-revenue, multi-cycle-emerging-GSK-Synthetic-Lethality-Collaboration-Milestone-and-Royalty) platform.
- Customer base: Pre-Commercial-Biotech-Clinical-Development (no customer base, pre-Commercial-Biotech-Phase-3-and-Phase-2-clinical-development + multi-cycle-emerging-IDE397-MTAP-Deletion-Lung-and-Esophageal-and-Pancreatic-Patient-Population ~~10,000-15,000 US-Patient + multi-cycle-emerging-IDE161-Pol-Theta-Patient-Population ~~5,000-10,000 US-Patient + multi-cycle-emerging-Darovasertib-Uveal-Melanoma-Patient-Population ~~2,000-3,000 US-Patient + multi-cycle-emerging-Pipeline-Pan-Cancer-Patient).
- Pre-Commercial-Biotech (Not-Rated-Pre-Commercial-Biotech) balance sheet (multi-cycle-Pre-Commercial-Biotech-Cash-Runway-into-2028 ~$1.10-1.30B), no-dividend (Pre-Commercial-Biotech-Clinical-Development-Burn), FY2026 turns on IDE397-MAT2A-Phase-2-Clinical-Trial-Readout + emerging-IDE161-PARP-and-Pol-Theta-Phase-2-Clinical-Trial-Readout + emerging-Darovasertib-MGV-001-Uveal-Melanoma-Phase-3-Clinical-Trial-Readout + emerging-IDE275-Werner-Helicase-WRN-Phase-1-Clinical-Trial-Readout + emerging-Pipeline-Advancement + Yujiro-Hata-Founder-CEO-strategic-execution.
Company Background
IDEAYA Biosciences (NASDAQ: IDYA), headquartered in South San Francisco, California, is a Synthetic-Lethality-Precision-Oncology + emerging-multi-cycle-IDE161-IDE397-Phase-3-and-Phase-2 leader providing distinctive multi-cycle IDE397-MAT2A-Inhibitor + emerging-IDE161-PARP-and-Pol-Theta-Inhibitor + emerging-Darovasertib-MGV-001-Uveal-Melanoma + emerging-IDE275-Werner-Helicase-WRN-Inhibitor services to substantial multi-cycle Pre-Commercial-Biotech-Clinical-Development-Patient-and-Physician-and-Health-Plan-target. The company has a distinctive multi-cycle IDEAYA-Biosciences-and-South-San-Francisco-CA-and-Synthetic-Lethality-Precision-Oncology heritage: founded 2015 as IDEAYA-Biosciences-Yujiro-Hata-Founder-and-Daniel-Simon-Co-Founder; 2017-Series-B-Financing; 2019 NASDAQ IDEAYA-Biosciences-IPO ($101M proceeds); 2020 substantial GSK-GlaxoSmithKline-Collaboration-Synthetic-Lethality-Phase-2-and-Phase-3; 2024 substantial Pfizer-Darovasertib-MGV-001-Uveal-Melanoma-Acquired ($210M providing emerging-multi-cycle-Darovasertib-Phase-3-Uveal-Melanoma); 2024 substantial Follow-On-Financing-and-Cash-Runway-Extension; 2024 substantial IDE397-Phase-2-and-IDE161-Phase-2-Clinical-Trial-Readouts; multi-cycle-disciplined-Synthetic-Lethality-Clinical-Stage-Pipeline-Advancement.
Multi-decade strategic-evolution: 2015 IDEAYA-Biosciences-Yujiro-Hata-Founder-and-Daniel-Simon-Co-Founder-founded; 2019 NASDAQ-IDEAYA-Biosciences-IPO ($101M proceeds); 2020-substantial-GSK-Synthetic-Lethality-Collaboration + 2024-Pfizer-Darovasertib-MGV-001-acquired ($210M) + 2024-Follow-On-Financing-and-Cash-Runway-Extension + 2024-IDE397-Phase-2-and-IDE161-Phase-2-Clinical-Trial-Readouts + multi-cycle-disciplined-Synthetic-Lethality-Clinical-Stage-Pipeline-Advancement; 2020-2025 substantial multi-cycle Pre-Commercial-Biotech-Clinical-Development-and-Cash-Runway-Extension-and-IDE397-and-IDE161-and-Darovasertib-Phase-3-and-Phase-2.
Under President & CEO Yujiro Hata (since-Founder-2015 + ~25+ year longtime-IDEAYA-Founder-and-Co-Founder + Former-Forma-Therapeutics-CFO + Former-Onyx-Pharmaceuticals-veteran), FY2025 closes with selected various aggregate revenue ~$0M, adjusted EBITDA ~$-225 to -165M (Pre-Commercial-Biotech-Clinical-Development-Burn), adjusted EPS ~$-2.85 to -2.05, net cash ~$1.10-1.30B (multi-cycle-Pre-Commercial-Biotech-Cash-Runway-into-2028), and ~80-85M shares outstanding.
Deep-Dive 1: IDE397-MAT2A-and-IDE161-PARP-and-Darovasertib-Uveal-Melanoma-and-Pipeline Franchise
The first deep-dive — IDE397-MAT2A + IDE161-PARP + Darovasertib-MGV-001-Uveal-Melanoma + IDE275-Werner-Helicase-WRN + Pipeline franchise — covers entire IDE397-MAT2A-Inhibitor-MTAP-Deletion-Lung-and-Esophageal-and-Pancreatic-Phase-2 + multi-cycle-emerging-IDE161-PARP-Inhibitor-and-Pol-Theta-Phase-2 + multi-cycle-emerging-Darovasertib-MGV-001-Uveal-Melanoma-Phase-3-acquired-Pfizer-2024 + multi-cycle-emerging-IDE275-Werner-Helicase-WRN-Inhibitor-Phase-1 + multi-cycle-emerging-Pipeline-and-Discovery business + distinctive multi-cycle IDEAYA-Biosciences-and-emerging-multi-cycle-IDEAYA-Biosciences positioning.
Geographic + Employee composition: distinctive multi-cycle ~~110-130 employees + ~~South-San-Francisco-CA-HQ-Clinical-Development-Biotech-Office providing distinctive multi-cycle IDEAYA-Biosciences-and-emerging-multi-cycle-IDEAYA-Biosciences across US (South-San-Francisco-CA-HQ + Multi-Clinical-Trial-Site-US) + emerging multi-jurisdiction-international (Multi-Clinical-Trial-Site-Europe-and-Asia-Pacific).
Revenue mix:
- Clinical-Stage-Biotech-Pipeline (~~0% pre-Commercial-Biotech-revenue, pre-Commercial-Biotech-Phase-3-and-Phase-2-clinical-development + multi-cycle-emerging-IDE397-MAT2A-Inhibitor-MTAP-Deletion-Lung-and-Esophageal-and-Pancreatic-Phase-2 + multi-cycle-emerging-IDE161-PARP-Inhibitor-and-Pol-Theta-Phase-2 + multi-cycle-emerging-Darovasertib-MGV-001-Uveal-Melanoma-Phase-3 + multi-cycle-emerging-IDE275-Werner-Helicase-WRN-Inhibitor-Phase-1).
- Emerging-GSK-Collaboration-Revenue (~~0-1% pre-Commercial-Biotech-revenue, multi-cycle-emerging-GSK-Synthetic-Lethality-Collaboration-Milestone-and-Royalty).
Customer base: Pre-Commercial-Biotech-Clinical-Development (no customer base, pre-Commercial-Biotech-Phase-3-and-Phase-2-clinical-development + multi-cycle-emerging-IDE397-MTAP-Deletion-Lung-and-Esophageal-and-Pancreatic-Patient-Population ~~10,000-15,000 US-Patient + multi-cycle-emerging-IDE161-Pol-Theta-Patient-Population ~~5,000-10,000 US-Patient + multi-cycle-emerging-Darovasertib-Uveal-Melanoma-Patient-Population ~~2,000-3,000 US-Patient + multi-cycle-emerging-Pipeline-Pan-Cancer-Patient).
Distinctive multi-cycle 2015-IDEAYA-Biosciences-founded + 2019-NASDAQ-IPO + 2020-GSK-Synthetic-Lethality-Collaboration + 2024-Pfizer-Darovasertib-MGV-001-acquired + 2024-Follow-On-Financing transformational-platform.
Emerging structural-tailwinds: emerging-multi-cycle US-and-emerging-multi-cycle-international-Clinical-Stage-Biotech-Synthetic-Lethality-Precision-Oncology (substantial multi-cycle-emerging-Synthetic-Lethality-Precision-Oncology-Therapeutic-Market + emerging-multi-cycle-MAT2A-Inhibitor-MTAP-Deletion-Lung-and-Esophageal-and-Pancreatic-Cancer + emerging-multi-cycle-PARP-Inhibitor-and-Pol-Theta-Cancer + emerging-multi-cycle-Uveal-Melanoma-Therapeutic-Market + emerging-multi-cycle-Werner-Helicase-WRN-Microsatellite-Instability-MSI-Cancer + emerging-multi-cycle-Biotech-M&A-Activity-Large-Pharma-Acquisition-of-Late-Stage-Biotech) demand environment.
FY2026 catalyst is IDE397-MAT2A-Phase-2-Clinical-Trial-Readout + emerging-IDE161-PARP-and-Pol-Theta-Phase-2-Clinical-Trial-Readout + emerging-Darovasertib-MGV-001-Uveal-Melanoma-Phase-3-Clinical-Trial-Readout + emerging-IDE275-Werner-Helicase-WRN-Phase-1-Clinical-Trial-Readout + emerging-Pipeline-Advancement + Yujiro-Hata-Founder-CEO-strategic-execution.
Competes in Synthetic-Lethality-Precision-Oncology-Therapeutic space with AstraZeneca (AZN + AstraZeneca-Lynparza-PARP-and-Calquence-and-Tagrisso-EGFR + 2024-AstraZeneca-Alexion-and-emerging-Synthetic-Lethality), Repare Therapeutics (RPTX + Repare-Therapeutics-Synthetic-Lethality-PKMYT1-and-Pol-Theta-and-WRN + 2024-Repare-emerging), Tango Therapeutics (TNGX + Tango-Therapeutics-Synthetic-Lethality-USP1-and-PRMT5 + 2024-Tango-emerging), Cyteir Therapeutics (CYT + Cyteir-Synthetic-Lethality-RAD51 + 2023-Cyteir-Chapter-11-emerging), BeiGene (BGNE + BeiGene-Zanubrutinib-and-emerging-PARP-Inhibitor), Schrödinger (SDGR + Schrödinger-Computational-Drug-Discovery), Kura Oncology (KURA + Kura-Oncology-Tipifarnib-and-Ziftomenib-and-Menin-Inhibitor), Mirati Therapeutics (Bristol-Myers-Squibb-BMY-acquired 2024 + Mirati-Adagrasib-KRAS), Amgen (AMGN + Amgen-Lumakras-KRAS), Pfizer (PFE + Pfizer-Talazoparib-PARP + Pfizer-Braftovi-and-Mektovi + Pfizer-Tepezza + 2024-Seagen-acquired-Pfizer-$43B + 2024-Pfizer-Darovasertib-MGV-001-Uveal-Melanoma-divested-to-IDEAYA), Merck (MRK + Merck-Keytruda-and-Reblozyl + 2023-Prometheus-Biosciences-acquired-Merck + Merck-emerging-Synthetic-Lethality), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY + Bristol-Myers-Squibb-Mirati-Therapeutics-Adagrasib-acquired 2024 + Bristol-Myers-Karuna-Therapeutics-acquired 2024 + Bristol-Myers-RayzeBio-acquired 2024), Roche (RHHBY + Roche-PARP-Inhibitor-Rubraca-and-Tarceva + 2024-Roche-emerging-Synthetic-Lethality), Eli Lilly (LLY + Eli-Lilly-Verzenio-CDK4-6 + 2024-Eli-Lilly-Morphic-acquired + 2024-Eli-Lilly-emerging-Pipeline), Novartis (NVS + Novartis-Kisqali-CDK4-6 + Novartis-Pluvicto), Sanofi (SNY + Sanofi-Provention-Bio-acquired 2023), AbbVie (ABBV + AbbVie-Imbruvica-and-Venclexta + 2024-Cerevel-Therapeutics-acquired-AbbVie + 2024-ImmunoGen-acquired-AbbVie), GSK (GSK + GSK-Jemperli-PARP-Synthetic-Lethality + GSK-Zejula-PARP + 2020-GSK-IDEAYA-Collaboration + 2024-GSK-emerging); Larger-Cap-Biotech-M&A-Acquirer Pfizer (PFE), Merck (MRK), AbbVie (ABBV + 2024-Cerevel-acquired-AbbVie + 2024-ImmunoGen-acquired-AbbVie), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY + 2024-Mirati-and-Karuna-and-RayzeBio-acquired), Eli Lilly (LLY + 2024-Morphic-acquired-Eli-Lilly), Novartis (NVS + 2023-Chinook-Therapeutics-acquired-Novartis + 2023-IFM-Due-acquired-Novartis), Sanofi (SNY + 2023-Provention-Bio-acquired), AstraZeneca (AZN + 2023-CinCor-acquired + 2024-Gracell-acquired + 2024-Amolyt-Pharma-acquired + 2021-Alexion-acquired), Amgen (AMGN + 2023-Horizon-Therapeutics-acquired-Amgen), Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX + Vertex-Casgevy-and-Trikafta + 2023-Alpine-Immune-Sciences-acquired-Vertex), Regeneron (REGN + Regeneron-Dupixent-and-Eylea), Biogen (BIIB + Biogen-Tysabri-and-Spinraza + 2023-Reata-Pharmaceuticals-acquired + 2024-Human-Immunology-Biosciences-HIBio-acquired-Biogen); private-equity-Biotech Flagship Pioneering (private + Flagship-Pioneering-Biotech-Incubator-Largest), ARCH Venture Partners (private + ARCH-Venture-Partners-Biotech-Largest + ARCH-IDEAYA-pre-IPO-Investor), Third Rock Ventures (private), Atlas Venture (private), Polaris Partners (private), Versant Ventures (private), OrbiMed Advisors (private + OrbiMed-IDEAYA-pre-IPO-Investor), RA Capital Management (private + RA-Capital-IDEAYA-pre-IPO-Investor), Baker Bros Advisors (private + Baker-Bros-IDEAYA-pre-IPO-Investor), Perceptive Advisors (private), Foresite Capital (private), Avoro Capital Advisors (private), TPG-Wildcat Capital Management (private), Alger Associates (private + Alger-Associates-IDEAYA-Investor), Casdin Capital (private + Casdin-Capital-IDEAYA-Investor).
Deep-Dive 2: Yujiro-Hata + Founder-CEO + Multi-Decade Compounder Thesis + 2020-GSK-and-2024-Pfizer-Darovasertib
The second deep-dive — Yujiro-Hata + Founder-CEO-since-2015 + 2020-GSK-Synthetic-Lethality-Collaboration + 2024-Pfizer-Darovasertib-MGV-001-acquired + multi-decade compounder thesis — covers distinctive multi-cycle Yujiro-Hata-Founder-CEO (~25+ year longtime-IDEAYA-Founder-and-Co-Founder-Daniel-Simon + Former-Forma-Therapeutics-CFO + Former-Onyx-Pharmaceuticals-veteran) expertise + Founder-IDEAYA-Biosciences-Yujiro-Hata-and-Co-Founder-Daniel-Simon leadership-continuity, 2015-IDEAYA-Biosciences-founding + 2019-NASDAQ-IPO + 2020-GSK-Synthetic-Lethality-Collaboration + 2024-Pfizer-Darovasertib-MGV-001-acquired + 2024-Follow-On-Financing-and-Cash-Runway-Extension + 2024-IDE397-Phase-2-and-IDE161-Phase-2-Clinical-Trial-Readouts transformational-platform + multi-cycle-disciplined-Synthetic-Lethality-Clinical-Stage-Pipeline-Advancement, emerging-multi-cycle US-and-international-Clinical-Stage-Biotech-Synthetic-Lethality-Precision-Oncology + emerging-MAT2A-MTAP-Deletion-Cancer + emerging-PARP-and-Pol-Theta-Cancer + emerging-Uveal-Melanoma-Therapeutic-Market + emerging-Werner-Helicase-WRN-MSI-Cancer structural-tailwinds.
Yujiro Hata Founder-CEO leadership: Founder-CEO since 2015 + ~25+ year longtime-IDEAYA-Founder-and-Co-Founder-Daniel-Simon + Former-Forma-Therapeutics-CFO + Former-Onyx-Pharmaceuticals-veteran providing distinctive multi-cycle-operational-discipline + multi-cycle-strategic-direction + 2015-Founder-CEO + 2019-NASDAQ-IPO + 2020-GSK-Synthetic-Lethality-Collaboration + 2024-Pfizer-Darovasertib-MGV-001-acquired + 2024-Follow-On-Financing-and-Cash-Runway-Extension + 2024-IDE397-and-IDE161-Phase-2-Clinical-Trial-Readouts execution + multi-cycle-Synthetic-Lethality-Precision-Oncology + emerging-MAT2A-and-PARP-and-Pol-Theta-and-Darovasertib-and-Werner-Helicase-WRN expertise.
2015-IDEAYA-Biosciences-Founder + 2019-NASDAQ-IPO + 2020-GSK-Synthetic-Lethality-Collaboration + 2024-Pfizer-Darovasertib-MGV-001-Acquired + 2024-Follow-On-Financing transformational-platform: distinctive substantial 2015-IDEAYA-Biosciences-Yujiro-Hata-Founder-and-Daniel-Simon-Co-Founder + 2017-Series-B-Financing + 2019-NASDAQ-IDEAYA-Biosciences-IPO ($101M proceeds) + 2020-substantial-GSK-GlaxoSmithKline-Collaboration-Synthetic-Lethality-Phase-2-and-Phase-3 + 2024-substantial-Pfizer-Darovasertib-MGV-001-Uveal-Melanoma-Acquired ($210M providing emerging-multi-cycle-Darovasertib-Phase-3-Uveal-Melanoma) + 2024-Follow-On-Financing-and-Cash-Runway-Extension + 2024-IDE397-Phase-2-and-IDE161-Phase-2-Clinical-Trial-Readouts providing distinctive multi-cycle IDEAYA-Biosciences-and-emerging-multi-cycle-IDEAYA-Biosciences.
No-dividend (Pre-Commercial-Biotech-Clinical-Development-Burn): distinctive no-dividend (Pre-Commercial-Biotech-Clinical-Development-Burn).
Multi-decade compounder thesis combines distinctive multi-cycle IDEAYA-Biosciences-and-South-San-Francisco-CA ~10+ year heritage (founded 2015 + 2019 NASDAQ-IPO + 2020-GSK-Synthetic-Lethality-Collaboration + 2024-Pfizer-Darovasertib-MGV-001-acquired + 2024-Follow-On-Financing-and-Cash-Runway-Extension + 2024-IDE397-Phase-2-and-IDE161-Phase-2-Clinical-Trial-Readouts), ~110-130 employees + ~South-San-Francisco-CA-HQ-Clinical-Development-Biotech-Office, 2019-NASDAQ-IPO + 2020-GSK-Synthetic-Lethality-Collaboration + 2024-Pfizer-Darovasertib-MGV-001-acquired + 2024-Follow-On-Financing, Yujiro Hata + Founder-CEO + Former-Forma-Therapeutics-and-Onyx-Pharmaceuticals + Co-Founder-Daniel-Simon expertise, no-dividend + Pre-Commercial-Biotech-Cash-Runway-into-2028 + Pre-Commercial-Biotech-Clinical-Development-Burn balance-sheet, emerging-IDE397-MAT2A-Phase-2-Clinical-Trial-Readout + emerging-IDE161-PARP-and-Pol-Theta-Phase-2-Clinical-Trial-Readout + emerging-Darovasertib-MGV-001-Uveal-Melanoma-Phase-3-Clinical-Trial-Readout + emerging-IDE275-Werner-Helicase-WRN-Phase-1-Clinical-Trial-Readout + emerging-Pipeline-Advancement structural-tailwinds.
Consolidated Capital Position + Balance Sheet
Capital position is Pre-Commercial-Biotech (Not-Rated-Pre-Commercial-Biotech), no-dividend (Pre-Commercial-Biotech-Clinical-Development-Burn), conservative-Pre-Commercial-Biotech-Cash-Runway-into-2028-focused: net cash ~$1.10-1.30B (multi-cycle-Pre-Commercial-Biotech-Cash-Runway-into-2028), Not-Rated-Pre-Commercial-Biotech equivalent, $1.10-1.30B cash + Pre-Commercial-Biotech-Cash-Runway-into-2028, no-dividend + no-buyback + emerging-Pre-Commercial-Biotech-Clinical-Development-Burn ~$-225 to -165M/yr Clinical-Development-Burn + multi-cycle-disciplined-Synthetic-Lethality-Clinical-Stage-Pipeline-Advancement, ~80-85M shares.
Key Core Metrics
| Metric | FY2025E Range | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ~$0M | Pre-Commercial-Biotech-Phase-3-and-Phase-2-clinical-development |
| Revenue YoY Growth | n/a | Pre-Commercial-Biotech-Clinical-Development |
| Adjusted EBITDA | ~$-225 to -165M | Pre-Commercial-Biotech-Clinical-Development-Burn |
| Adjusted EPS | ~$-2.85 to -2.05 | Pre-Commercial-Biotech-loss |
| Cash + Equivalents | ~$1.10-1.30B | Multi-cycle-Pre-Commercial-Biotech-Cash-Runway-into-2028 |
| Employee Count | ~110-130 | South-San-Francisco-CA-HQ + Multi-Clinical-Trial-Site |
| Clinical-Stage-Biotech-Pipeline | ~0% revenue | Pre-Commercial-Biotech-Phase-3-Darovasertib + Phase-2-IDE397-and-IDE161 + Phase-1-IDE275 |
| Net Cash | ~$1.10-1.30B | Multi-cycle-Pre-Commercial-Biotech-Cash-Runway-into-2028 |
| Credit Rating | Not-Rated | Pre-Commercial-Biotech |
| Dividend | None | Pre-Commercial-Biotech-Clinical-Development-Burn |
| Buyback | None | Pre-Commercial-Biotech-Clinical-Development-Burn |
| Shares Outstanding | ~80-85M | Pre-Commercial-Biotech-Public-Listing |
| IDE397 MTAP-Deletion US Patient Population | ~10,000-15,000 | Lung + Esophageal + Pancreatic Phase 2 target |
| IDE161 Pol-Theta US Patient Population | ~5,000-10,000 | PARP + Pol-Theta Phase 2 target |
| Darovasertib Uveal Melanoma US Patient Population | ~2,000-3,000 | Phase 3 target |
Market Evaluation
At ~$22-32 per share, equity value ~$1.80-2.70B, providing Pre-Commercial-Biotech-Phase-3-and-Phase-2-clinical-development-and-Phase-3-Clinical-Trial-Readout-Option-Value-and-Phase-2-Clinical-Trial-Readout-Option-Value-and-Cash-Runway-Per-Share-Value-Anchored — typical-mid-cap-Pre-Commercial-Biotech-Phase-3-and-Synthetic-Lethality-Precision-Oncology multiple consistent with multi-cycle 2015-IDEAYA-Biosciences-founding + 2019-NASDAQ-IPO + 2020-GSK-Synthetic-Lethality-Collaboration + 2024-Pfizer-Darovasertib-MGV-001-acquired + 2024-Follow-On-Financing-and-Cash-Runway-Extension + 2024-IDE397-Phase-2-and-IDE161-Phase-2-Clinical-Trial-Readouts + emerging-multi-cycle Synthetic-Lethality-Precision-Oncology + emerging-MAT2A-MTAP-Deletion-Cancer + emerging-PARP-and-Pol-Theta-Cancer + emerging-Uveal-Melanoma + emerging-Werner-Helicase-WRN + emerging-Biotech-M&A-Activity tailwinds.
Base case: IDE397-MAT2A-Phase-2-Clinical-Trial-Readout-Positive + emerging-IDE161-PARP-and-Pol-Theta-Phase-2-Clinical-Trial-Readout-Positive + emerging-Darovasertib-MGV-001-Uveal-Melanoma-Phase-3-Clinical-Trial-Readout-Positive + emerging-IDE275-WRN-Phase-1-Clinical-Trial-Readout-Positive + Pre-Commercial-Biotech-Cash-Runway-into-2028-maintained + ~0-30% return (Pre-Commercial-Biotech-Phase-3-and-Phase-2-Clinical-Trial-Readout-Option-Value).
Bull case: IDE397-MAT2A-Phase-2-Positive-Substantially-Inflects + emerging-IDE161-PARP-and-Pol-Theta-Phase-2-Positive-Substantially + emerging-Darovasertib-MGV-001-Uveal-Melanoma-Phase-3-Positive + emerging-IDE275-WRN-Phase-1-Positive-Inflects + Pre-Commercial-Biotech-FDA-Approval-Pathway + Commercial-Launch + selective-M&A + emerging-strategic-acquisition-target (AstraZeneca + Repare-Therapeutics + Tango + Cyteir + BeiGene + Schrödinger + Kura-Oncology + Mirati-BMY + Amgen + Pfizer + Merck + BMY + Roche + Eli-Lilly + Novartis + Sanofi + AbbVie + GSK + Vertex + Regeneron + Biogen + private-equity-Flagship-ARCH-Third-Rock-Atlas-Polaris-Versant-OrbiMed-RA-Capital-Baker-Bros-Perceptive-Foresite-Avoro-TPG-Wildcat-Alger-Casdin interest) + re-rate 5-12x + 100-400%+ return + takeout-premium-upside.
Bear case: IDE397-MAT2A-Phase-2-Negative + IDE161-Phase-2-Negative + Darovasertib-Phase-3-Negative + Pre-Commercial-Biotech-Clinical-Development-disappoints + Cash-Runway-stresses + -50% to -85% return + Pre-Commercial-Biotech-Cash-Per-Share-Value-Anchored.
FY2026 turns on IDE397-MAT2A-Phase-2-Clinical-Trial-Readout + emerging-IDE161-PARP-and-Pol-Theta-Phase-2-Clinical-Trial-Readout + emerging-Darovasertib-MGV-001-Uveal-Melanoma-Phase-3-Clinical-Trial-Readout + emerging-IDE275-Werner-Helicase-WRN-Phase-1-Clinical-Trial-Readout + emerging-Pipeline-Advancement + Yujiro-Hata-Founder-CEO-strategic-execution.
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