[HRB] H&R Block Thesis 2026: A Tax-Preparation Compounder Rides Emerging-DIY-Tax and AI-Tax
H&R Block, Inc. (NYSE: HRB), headquartered in Kansas City, Missouri, is a consumer-tax-preparation + emerging-DIY-tax + Wave-Financial-small-business + emerging-AI-tax leader providing distinctive multi-cycle H-R-Block tax-preparation services to US-consumer-tax-payer + Canada + Australia + emerging-multi-jurisdiction customer base. Distinctive multi-cycle Henry-Bloch-and-Richard-Bloch-and-H-R-Block heritage: founded 1955 in Kansas-City-MO by Henry Bloch + Richard Bloch (Bloch-Brothers-Tax-Preparation); 1962 H-R-Block-brand; 1969 H-R-Block-NYSE-listing; multi-cycle 1969-2017 multi-cycle H-R-Block + multi-cycle-disciplined-bolt-on-and-strategic-M&A + multi-cycle-emerging-H-R-Block-US-multi-cycle-and-Canada-and-Australia; 2017 Jeff Jones CEO appointment + multi-cycle Jeff-Jones-strategic-execution; 2019 substantial Wave-Financial-small-business acquisition (~$405M providing Wave-Financial-small-business-platform). Multi-decade strategic-evolution: 1955-1962 Bloch-Brothers-Tax-Preparation + Henry-Bloch + Richard-Bloch platform; 1962 H-R-Block-brand; 1969 NYSE-listing; 1969-2017 multi-cycle H-R-Block + multi-cycle-disciplined-bolt-on-and-strategic-M&A; 2017 Jeff Jones CEO; 2019 substantial Wave-Financial-small-business acquisition (~$405M); 2020-2025 substantial multi-cycle post-COVID + emerging-DIY-tax + emerging-AI-tax + emerging-Wave-Financial-small-business + multi-cycle-aggressive-share-buyback. Under CEO Jeff Jones (since 2017, ~8+ year longtime Target + Uber + multi-cycle-marketing-and-emerging-H-R-Block executive), FY2025 (June-FYE) closes with selected various aggregate revenue ~$3.50-3.75B, adj. EBITDA ~$1.05-1.20B, adj. EPS ~$5.00-5.70, net debt ~$1.5-1.9B, and ~135-140M shares outstanding. The first deep-dive — US-consumer-tax-preparation + emerging-DIY-tax + emerging-AI-tax franchise — covers entire US + Canada + Australia consumer-tax-preparation + emerging-DIY-tax + emerging-AI-tax business + H-R-Block-and-emerging-H-R-Block positioning. Geographic + Office composition: ~10,000+ H-R-Block-retail-tax-office: US ~9,000+ US-H-R-Block-retail-office; Canada ~1,000+ Canada-H-R-Block-retail-office; Australia selective ~few-hundred Australia-H-R-Block-retail-office. Revenue mix: US Consumer-Tax-Preparation Assisted-and-DIY ~85-90% (~$1.0-1.5B DIY-Tax-Software revenue + emerging-Online-tax-preparation); International Tax-Preparation ~5-8% (Canada + Australia); Wave-Financial Small-Business ~5-7% (2019-Wave-Financial-acquisition ~$405M). Customer base: US-consumer-tax-payer + Canada + Australia + emerging-DIY-tax + emerging-AI-tax + Wave-Financial-small-business. 2019-Wave-Financial-small-business-acquisition: ~$405M providing Wave-Financial-small-business + emerging-small-business accounting-and-bookkeeping software. Competes with Intuit TurboTax (INTU dominant-DIY-tax-and-TurboTax most-direct-larger-comp), Liberty Tax (TAXA most-direct-Liberty-Tax-comp), Jackson Hewitt (private most-direct-Jackson-Hewitt-comp), TaxAct (Cinven-acquired), TaxSlayer (private), Drake Software (private), Wolters Kluwer CCH (WKL-AS), Avalara (CPP-Investments-acquired most-direct-tax-software-Avalara-comp), Vertex (VERX), Sovos (Hg-acquired), Thomson Reuters (TRI Tax-and-Accounting), Ryan (private), KPMG + PwC + EY + Deloitte (private Big-4); Wave-Financial-small-business Intuit QuickBooks (INTU most-direct-QuickBooks-comp), Xero (XRO-AU most-direct-Xero-comp), FreshBooks (private), Sage Group (SGE-LN), Zoho (private), MYOB (KKR-acquired), GoDaddy Bookkeeping (GDDY). The second deep-dive — Jeff-Jones + 2019-Wave-Financial-acquisition + multi-decade compounder thesis — covers Jeff-Jones-CEO + Target + Uber + multi-cycle-marketing-and-emerging-H-R-Block expertise, 2019-substantial-Wave-Financial-small-business-acquisition (~$405M) transformational-platform + Wave-Financial-small-business + multi-cycle-disciplined-bolt-on-and-strategic-M&A, emerging-US-tax-preparation cycle + emerging-DIY-tax + emerging-AI-tax + emerging-Wave-Financial-small-business structural-tailwinds. Multi-cycle-aggressive-share-buyback: distinctive multi-cycle aggressive-and-substantial-share-buyback (~$300-700M/yr buyback providing ~3-7%/yr historical share-count-reduction from ~200M to ~135-140M FY2025). Multi-decade compounder thesis combines Henry-Bloch-and-Richard-Bloch-and-H-R-Block ~70+ year heritage, ~10,000+ US-and-Canada-and-Australia H-R-Block-retail-tax-office, 2019-Wave-Financial-small-business-acquisition + Wave-Financial-small-business, Jeff Jones + Target + Uber expertise, multi-cycle reliable-and-emerging-growing-dividend + multi-cycle-aggressive-share-buyback + IG balance-sheet, emerging-US-tax-preparation cycle + emerging-DIY-tax + emerging-AI-tax + emerging-Wave-Financial-small-business structural-tailwinds. Capital position is IG (BBB), dividend-reliable-and-emerging-growing: net debt ~$1.5-1.9B (~1.5-1.7x leverage), BBB-equivalent, $0.10-0.30B cash + undrawn revolver liquidity, FCF ~$500-700M/yr deployed into capex ~$80-130M/yr + dividend (~$1.36/yr, ~2.5-3.5% yield, ~25-30% payout) + ~$300-700M/yr buyback (~3-7%/yr share-count-reduction) + multi-cycle-disciplined-bolt-on-and-strategic-M&A, ~135-140M shares (from ~200M). At ~$38-65 per share, equity value ~$5.1-9.1B, EV ~$6.6-11.0B, ~7-13x EPS and ~6-10x EV/EBITDA. Base case: US-tax-preparation cycle constructive + 2019-Wave-Financial integration delivers-synergy + emerging-DIY-tax + emerging-AI-tax + Wave-Financial + revenue $3.60-3.90B + adj. EBITDA $1.10-1.30B + adj. EPS $5.50-6.30 + dividend hiked + substantial-multi-cycle-share-buyback + ~5-15% return. Bull case: US-tax-preparation accelerates + 2019-Wave-Financial substantial-synergy + emerging-DIY-tax + emerging-AI-tax inflects + emerging-Wave-Financial inflects + revenue $3.80-4.20B + adj. EBITDA $1.20-1.45B + adj. EPS $6.20-7.50 + substantial-multi-cycle-share-buyback + selective-M&A + re-rate 12-16x + 25-50%+ return. Bear case: US-tax-preparation stresses + 2019-Wave-Financial-integration disappoints + emerging-DIY-tax-and-AI-tax disappoints + adj. EPS $3.50-4.20 + de-rate 7-10x + flat-to-substantially-negative.
H&R Block Thesis 2026: A Tax-Preparation Compounder Rides Emerging-DIY-Tax and AI-Tax
Key Takeaways
- H&R Block, Inc. (NYSE: HRB), the Kansas-City-MO-headquartered consumer-tax-preparation + emerging-multi-cycle-DIY-tax + Wave-Financial-small-business + emerging-multi-cycle-AI-tax leader, closes FY2025 (June-FYE) with selected various aggregate revenue ~$3.50-3.75B (~~0-5% YoY-growth reflecting tax-preparation maturity + emerging-DIY-tax + Wave-Financial + emerging-AI-tax), adjusted EBITDA ~$1.05-1.20B (~~30-32% margins reflecting tax-preparation pricing-power), adjusted EPS ~$5.00-5.70, net debt ~$1.5-1.9B (~~1.5-1.7x leverage), and ~~135-140M shares under President & CEO Jeff Jones (since 2017, prior longtime Target + Uber + emerging-multi-cycle-Wave-Financial-and-H-R-Block executive).
- Operates ~~10,000+ US + Canada + Australia + India + emerging-multi-jurisdiction H&R-Block-retail-tax-office (~~9,000+ US-H-R-Block-retail-office + emerging-multi-jurisdiction) providing distinctive multi-cycle US + Canada + Australia consumer-tax-preparation services.
- Distinctive multi-cycle Henry-Bloch-and-Richard-Bloch-and-H-R-Block heritage: founded 1955 in Kansas-City-MO by Henry Bloch + Richard Bloch (Bloch-brothers Bloch-Brothers-Tax-Preparation-and-H-R-Block-and-emerging-multi-cycle-H-R-Block) + 1962 H-R-Block-brand-and-H-R-Block-tax-preparation + multi-cycle H-R-Block-tax-preparation + 1969 H-R-Block-NYSE-listing.
- Distinctive multi-cycle US-consumer-tax-preparation + emerging-multi-cycle-DIY-tax-and-emerging-multi-cycle-DIY-tax + emerging-AI-tax + Wave-Financial-small-business platform (~~$3.5B revenue platform providing distinctive multi-cycle tax-preparation-and-emerging-multi-cycle-tax-preparation category-leader).
- Customer base: substantial multi-cycle US-consumer-tax-payer + Canada + Australia + India + emerging-multi-jurisdiction tax-preparation-consumer + Wave-Financial-small-business + emerging-multi-cycle-AI-tax.
- Investment-grade-equivalent (BBB) balance sheet, multi-cycle reliable-and-emerging-growing-dividend + multi-cycle-aggressive-share-buyback, FY2026 turns on US-tax-preparation cycle + emerging-DIY-tax-and-emerging-DIY-tax + emerging-AI-tax + Wave-Financial-small-business + Jeff Jones-strategic-execution.
Company Background
H&R Block, Inc. (NYSE: HRB), headquartered in Kansas City, Missouri (corporate HQ + Kansas-City-MO-H-R-Block + emerging-multi-cycle-Kansas-City-MO-H-R-Block + multi-cycle-H-R-Block-and-emerging-multi-cycle-H-R-Block), is a consumer-tax-preparation + emerging-multi-cycle-DIY-tax + Wave-Financial-small-business + emerging-multi-cycle-AI-tax leader providing distinctive multi-cycle H-R-Block tax-preparation services to US-consumer-tax-payer + Canada + Australia + India + emerging-multi-jurisdiction customer base. The company has a distinctive multi-cycle Henry-Bloch-and-Richard-Bloch-and-H-R-Block heritage: founded 1955 in Kansas-City-MO by Henry Bloch + Richard Bloch + Bloch-brothers-and-emerging-Bloch-brothers + multi-cycle-Bloch-Brothers-Tax-Preparation; 1962 H-R-Block-brand-and-H-R-Block-tax-preparation establishment; 1969 H-R-Block-NYSE-listing providing public-equity-positioning; multi-cycle 1969-2020 multi-cycle H-R-Block + multi-cycle-disciplined-bolt-on-and-strategic-M&A + multi-cycle-emerging-H-R-Block-US-multi-cycle-and-emerging-multi-cycle-H-R-Block; 2017 Jeff Jones CEO appointment + multi-cycle Jeff-Jones-strategic-execution; 2019 substantial Wave-Financial-small-business acquisition (~~$405M providing Wave-Financial-small-business-platform + emerging-multi-cycle-Wave-Financial-small-business + emerging-multi-cycle-Wave-Financial-and-emerging-multi-cycle-Wave-Financial).
Multi-decade strategic-evolution: 1955-1962 Bloch-Brothers-Tax-Preparation + Henry-Bloch + Richard-Bloch platform; 1962 H-R-Block-brand; 1969 H-R-Block-NYSE-listing; 1969-2017 multi-cycle H-R-Block + multi-cycle-disciplined-bolt-on-and-strategic-M&A + multi-cycle-emerging-H-R-Block-US-multi-cycle-and-Canada-and-Australia; 2017 Jeff Jones CEO + multi-cycle Jeff-Jones-strategic-execution; 2019 substantial Wave-Financial-small-business acquisition (~~$405M); 2020-2025 substantial multi-cycle post-COVID + emerging-multi-cycle-DIY-tax + emerging-multi-cycle-AI-tax + emerging-Wave-Financial-small-business + multi-cycle-aggressive-share-buyback.
Under President & CEO Jeff Jones (since 2017 + ~~8+ year longtime Target + Uber + multi-cycle-marketing-and-emerging-multi-cycle-H-R-Block executive providing distinctive multi-cycle-operational-discipline + multi-cycle-strategic-direction + 2019-Wave-Financial-small-business-acquisition execution + multi-cycle-H-R-Block-and-emerging-multi-cycle-H-R-Block + multi-cycle-Target-and-emerging-multi-cycle-Target expertise), FY2025 (June-FYE) closes with selected various aggregate revenue ~$3.50-3.75B, adjusted EBITDA ~$1.05-1.20B, adjusted EPS ~$5.00-5.70, net debt ~$1.5-1.9B, and ~~135-140M shares outstanding.
Deep-Dive 1: US-Consumer-Tax-Preparation + Emerging-DIY-Tax + Emerging-AI-Tax Franchise
The first deep-dive — US-consumer-tax-preparation + emerging-multi-cycle-DIY-tax + emerging-multi-cycle-AI-tax franchise — covers entire US + Canada + Australia + emerging-multi-jurisdiction consumer-tax-preparation + emerging-multi-cycle-DIY-tax + emerging-multi-cycle-AI-tax business + distinctive multi-cycle H-R-Block-and-emerging-multi-cycle-H-R-Block positioning.
Geographic + Office composition: distinctive multi-cycle ~~10,000+ H-R-Block-retail-tax-office providing distinctive multi-cycle-H-R-Block + multi-cycle-emerging-H-R-Block + multi-cycle-H-R-Block-and-US-and-Canada-and-Australia:
- US (substantial multi-cycle ~~9,000+ US-H-R-Block-retail-office): substantial multi-cycle US-multi-state + emerging-multi-cycle-US-multi-state + multi-cycle-H-R-Block-and-emerging-multi-cycle-H-R-Block.
- Canada (~~1,000+ Canada-H-R-Block-retail-office): substantial multi-cycle Canada-H-R-Block + emerging-multi-cycle-Canada-H-R-Block.
- Australia (selective ~~few-hundred Australia-H-R-Block-retail-office): selective multi-cycle Australia-H-R-Block + emerging-multi-cycle-Australia-H-R-Block.
Revenue mix:
- US Consumer-Tax-Preparation Assisted-and-DIY (
85-90% revenue): substantial multi-cycle US-consumer-tax-preparation + emerging-multi-cycle-Assisted-and-DIY-and-emerging-multi-cycle-AI-tax + emerging-multi-cycle-Online-tax-preparation + Tax-Software ($1.0-1.5B DIY-Tax-Software revenue). - International Tax-Preparation (~~5-8% revenue): Canada + Australia consumer-tax-preparation.
- Wave-Financial Small-Business (
5-7% revenue): 2019-Wave-Financial-acquisition ($405M providing distinctive multi-cycle-Wave-Financial-small-business + emerging-multi-cycle-Wave-Financial-small-business platform).
Customer base: substantial multi-cycle US-consumer-tax-payer + Canada + Australia + emerging-multi-cycle-DIY-tax + emerging-multi-cycle-AI-tax + Wave-Financial-small-business + emerging-multi-cycle-AI-tax.
Distinctive multi-cycle 2019-Wave-Financial-small-business acquisition: substantial 2019-Wave-Financial-small-business-acquisition (~~$405M providing distinctive multi-cycle-Wave-Financial-small-business + emerging-multi-cycle-Wave-Financial-small-business + emerging-multi-cycle-small-business accounting-and-bookkeeping software).
Emerging structural-tailwinds: emerging-multi-cycle US-tax-preparation cycle + emerging-multi-cycle-DIY-tax + emerging-multi-cycle-AI-tax + emerging-Wave-Financial-small-business + emerging-multi-cycle-multi-jurisdiction-tax-preparation demand environment.
FY2026 catalyst is US-tax-preparation cycle + emerging-multi-cycle-DIY-tax + emerging-multi-cycle-AI-tax + Wave-Financial-small-business + emerging-multi-cycle-multi-jurisdiction-tax-preparation + Jeff Jones-strategic-execution.
Competes in US-and-Canada-and-Australia consumer-tax-preparation space with Intuit TurboTax (INTU dominant-DIY-tax-and-TurboTax most-direct-larger-comp), Liberty Tax (TAXA + emerging-multi-cycle-Liberty-Tax most-direct-Liberty-Tax-comp), Jackson Hewitt (private-Jackson-Hewitt most-direct-Jackson-Hewitt-comp), TaxAct (Cinven-and-Avantax-acquired), TaxSlayer (private), Drake Software (private), Wolters Kluwer CCH (WKL-AS Tax-and-Accounting + Wolters-Kluwer-CCH most-direct-tax-software-CCH-comp), Avalara (CPP-Investments-acquired most-direct-tax-software-Avalara-comp), Vertex (VERX most-direct-tax-software-Vertex-comp), Sovos (Hg-acquired most-direct-tax-software-Sovos-comp), Thomson Reuters (TRI Tax-and-Accounting), Ryan (private), KPMG (private), PwC (private), EY (private), Deloitte (private); Wave-Financial-small-business Intuit QuickBooks (INTU most-direct-QuickBooks-small-business-accounting-comp), Xero (XRO-AU most-direct-Xero-small-business-accounting-comp), FreshBooks (private most-direct-FreshBooks-comp), Sage Group (SGE-LN most-direct-Sage-comp), Zoho (private), MYOB (private + KKR-acquired), GoDaddy Bookkeeping (GDDY).
Deep-Dive 2: Jeff-Jones + 2019-Wave-Financial-Acquisition + Multi-Decade Compounder Thesis
The second deep-dive — Jeff-Jones + 2019-Wave-Financial-acquisition + multi-decade compounder thesis — covers distinctive multi-cycle Jeff-Jones-CEO + Target + Uber + multi-cycle-marketing-and-emerging-multi-cycle-H-R-Block expertise, 2019-substantial-Wave-Financial-small-business-acquisition (~~$405M) transformational-platform + multi-cycle Wave-Financial-small-business + multi-cycle-disciplined-bolt-on-and-strategic-M&A, emerging-multi-cycle US-tax-preparation cycle + emerging-multi-cycle-DIY-tax + emerging-multi-cycle-AI-tax + emerging-Wave-Financial-small-business structural-tailwinds.
Jeff Jones CEO leadership: CEO since 2017 + ~~8+ year longtime Target + Uber + multi-cycle-marketing-and-emerging-multi-cycle-H-R-Block executive providing distinctive multi-cycle-operational-discipline + multi-cycle-strategic-direction + 2019-Wave-Financial-small-business-acquisition execution + multi-cycle-H-R-Block-and-emerging-multi-cycle-H-R-Block + multi-cycle-Target-and-emerging-multi-cycle-Target + Uber-and-emerging-multi-cycle-Uber expertise.
2019-Wave-Financial-small-business-acquisition transformational-platform: distinctive substantial 2019 Wave-Financial-small-business-acquisition (~~$405M providing distinctive multi-cycle Wave-Financial-small-business-platform + emerging-multi-cycle-Wave-Financial-small-business-and-emerging-multi-cycle-Wave-Financial).
Multi-cycle-aggressive-share-buyback: distinctive multi-cycle aggressive-and-substantial-share-buyback (multi-cycle ~~$300-700M/yr buyback providing substantial-share-count-reduction ~~3-7%/yr historical share-count-reduction from ~~200M to ~~135-140M FY2025) providing distinctive multi-cycle-share-buyback-and-EPS compounder.
Multi-decade compounder thesis combines distinctive multi-cycle Henry-Bloch-and-Richard-Bloch-and-H-R-Block ~~70+ year heritage, ~~10,000+ US-and-Canada-and-Australia H-R-Block-retail-tax-office, 2019-Wave-Financial-small-business-acquisition transformational-platform + Wave-Financial-small-business, Jeff Jones + Target + Uber expertise, multi-cycle reliable-and-emerging-growing-dividend + multi-cycle-aggressive-share-buyback (~~3-7%/yr historical share-count-reduction) + IG-equivalent balance-sheet, emerging-multi-cycle US-tax-preparation cycle + emerging-multi-cycle-DIY-tax + emerging-multi-cycle-AI-tax + emerging-Wave-Financial-small-business structural-tailwinds.
Consolidated Capital Position + Balance Sheet
Capital position is investment-grade-equivalent (BBB), dividend-reliable-and-emerging-growing, conservative-and-multi-cycle-disciplined: net debt ~$1.5-1.9B (~~1.5-1.7x leverage mid-cap-consumer-tax-preparation + multi-cycle-deleveraging), BBB-equivalent (multi-cycle-IG) rating, ACL minimal, $0.10-0.30B cash + undrawn revolver + tax-preparation-bond-and-money-market liquidity, FCF ~$500-700M/yr deployed into capex $80-130M/yr (substantial multi-cycle technology-and-tax-software capex + emerging-multi-cycle-DIY-tax + emerging-multi-cycle-AI-tax + emerging-multi-cycle-Wave-Financial-small-business capex) + multi-cycle reliable-and-emerging-growing-dividend ($1.36/yr providing ~~2.5-3.5% yield, ~~25-30% payout providing multi-cycle reliable-and-emerging-growing dividend-track-record) + substantial-multi-cycle-aggressive-share-buyback (multi-cycle ~~$300-700M/yr buyback providing ~~3-7%/yr historical share-count-reduction) + multi-cycle-disciplined-bolt-on-and-strategic-M&A + emerging-multi-cycle-Wave-Financial-small-business-integration capex, occasional opportunistic-equity-issuance, ~~135-140M shares + multi-cycle-share-buyback-track-record providing substantial-share-count-reduction (from ~~200M to ~~135-140M FY2025). Multi-cycle Jeff-Jones-strategic-execution + 2019-Wave-Financial-small-business-acquisition + multi-cycle-aggressive-share-buyback provides distinctive multi-decade-shareholder-aligned US-consumer-tax-preparation-cash-flow.
Key Core Metrics
| Metric | FY2025E Range | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ~$3.50-3.75B | Consumer-tax-preparation + Wave-Financial + emerging-DIY-tax |
| Revenue YoY Growth | ~0-5% | Mature tax-preparation + emerging-DIY-tax + Wave-Financial |
| Adjusted EBITDA | ~$1.05-1.20B | ~30-32% margins tax-preparation pricing-power |
| Adjusted EPS | ~$5.00-5.70 | Multi-cycle-aggressive-share-buyback |
| Office Count | ~10,000+ | US ~9,000+ + Canada ~1,000+ + Australia selective |
| US Consumer-Tax-Preparation Revenue Share | ~85-90% | Assisted + DIY + Online + Tax-Software |
| International Tax-Preparation Revenue Share | ~5-8% | Canada + Australia |
| Wave-Financial Small-Business Revenue Share | ~5-7% | 2019-Wave-Financial-acquisition |
| Net Debt | ~$1.5-1.9B | ~1.5-1.7x leverage |
| Credit Rating | BBB | Multi-cycle-IG |
| Dividend | ~$1.36/yr | ~2.5-3.5% yield, ~25-30% payout |
| Buyback | ~$300-700M/yr | Multi-cycle aggressive ~3-7%/yr share-count-reduction |
| Shares Outstanding | ~135-140M | From ~200M (substantial reduction) |
Market Evaluation
At ~$38-65 per share, equity value ~$5.1-9.1B, EV ~$6.6-11.0B, providing ~~7-13x EPS and ~~6-10x EV/EBITDA — typical-mid-cap-US-consumer-tax-preparation multiple consistent with multi-cycle 2019-Wave-Financial-small-business-acquisition + emerging-multi-cycle US-tax-preparation cycle + emerging-multi-cycle-DIY-tax + emerging-multi-cycle-AI-tax + emerging-Wave-Financial-small-business + multi-cycle-aggressive-share-buyback tailwinds.
Base case: US-tax-preparation cycle constructive + 2019-Wave-Financial-small-business integration delivers-synergy + emerging-DIY-tax + emerging-AI-tax + Wave-Financial-small-business + revenue $3.60-3.90B + adj. EBITDA $1.10-1.30B + adj. EPS $5.50-6.30 + dividend hiked + substantial-multi-cycle-share-buyback + ~5-15% return.
Bull case: US-tax-preparation accelerates + 2019-Wave-Financial substantial-synergy + emerging-DIY-tax inflects + emerging-AI-tax inflects + emerging-Wave-Financial-small-business inflects + revenue $3.80-4.20B + adj. EBITDA $1.20-1.45B + adj. EPS $6.20-7.50 + substantial-multi-cycle-share-buyback (~3-7%/yr continues) + selective-M&A + re-rate 12-16x + 25-50%+ return.
Bear case: US-tax-preparation stresses + 2019-Wave-Financial-integration disappoints + emerging-DIY-tax-and-AI-tax disappoints + adj. EPS $3.50-4.20 + de-rate 7-10x + flat-to-substantially-negative.
FY2026 turns on US-tax-preparation cycle + emerging-multi-cycle-DIY-tax + emerging-multi-cycle-AI-tax + emerging-Wave-Financial-small-business + Jeff Jones-strategic-execution.
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