Grupo Aeromexico (NYSE: GPGI), headquartered in Mexico City, Mexico (with operations-headquarters at Mexico City Benito Juárez International Airport + broader-Mexico-City corporate operations), is the Mexican flag-carrier airline operating mainline + regional + cargo aviation-services across Mexico-domestic + cross-border-US + Central-American + South-American + European + Asian routes. Founded in 1934 by Antonio Diaz Lombardo + co-founders in Mexico City as Aeronaves de México, renamed Aeroméxico in 1972, and the multi-decade Mexican flag-carrier. 1988-2022 prior-NYSE-listing-period. June 2020 Aeromexico filed Chapter 11 bankruptcy-protection stemming from COVID-induced-aviation-demand-collapse + pre-existing-elevated-leverage. March 2022 emerged from Chapter 11 with Apollo Global Management (APO) substantial-anchor-equity-position (~30-40%) + Delta Air Lines (DAL) substantial-anchor-equity-position (~20-25%) + restructured-balance-sheet + operational-restructuring. 2022-2024 private-Apollo-Delta-controlled period executing fleet-modernization (Boeing 737-MAX + 787-Dreamliner deliveries), operational + cost restructuring, and FAA Mexico Category-1-restoration support. May 2025 NYSE relisting under ticker GPGI providing liquidity for Apollo + Delta + other-institutional-anchor-equity-holders + broader-investor-access. Under President & CEO Andres Conesa (CEO since 2005, longtime Aeromexico CEO through prior US-listing + Chapter 11 + private-period + NYSE-relisting + selectively-the-only-Mexican-flag-carrier-CEO with multi-decade-continuous-tenure), FY2025 closes with selected various aggregate revenue ~$6.5-7.5B (~5-10% YoY growth), adjusted EBITDA ~$1.0-1.3B (~14-17% margins reflecting fleet-modernization + post-Chapter-11-cost-restructuring + Delta JV synergies), adjusted EPS ~$0.85-1.45, and ~155M shares outstanding. The first deep-dive — Mexican flag-carrier + Aeromexico Connect + Aeromexico Cargo franchise — covers Aeromexico's dominant Mexican-airline-and-cross-border franchise. Mainline Aeromexico operates ~115-130 mainline-aircraft fleet (Boeing 787-8/9 Dreamliner widebody ~10-15 for long-haul, 737-MAX-8/9 narrowbody ~40-50 for domestic + cross-border, 737-NG ~10-15 legacy, freighters, Embraer E190). Aeromexico Connect operates ~25-35-aircraft regional-jet fleet (Embraer E170/175/190) for regional + secondary-market. Aeromexico Cargo operates dedicated-freighter + belly-cargo for cross-border-and-international cargo + e-commerce + auto-parts + perishables. Route network ~90 destinations across Mexico (selectively-dominant MEX hub + NLU + MTY + GDL), US (~25-35 cross-border including Delta-coordinated Atlanta + JFK + LAX + Detroit + Salt Lake City + Houston + Dallas + Miami), Canada (Toronto + Montreal + Vancouver), Central America (Guatemala + San Salvador), South America (Bogota + Lima + Buenos Aires + Sao Paulo + Santiago), Europe (Madrid + Paris), Asia (Tokyo + Beijing/Shanghai). Delta Joint-Venture-and-codeshare: Delta holds ~20-25%+ strategic-equity + cross-border-Mexico-US JV (implemented 2017) + codeshare-partnership providing US-feed-to-Mexican-network + Mexican-feed-to-Delta-US-network + coordinated capacity-and-pricing. FY2026 catalyst is Mexican-domestic + cross-border-US air-travel demand + Delta JV economics + fleet-modernization + FAA Mexico Category-1 maintenance. Competes with Volaris (VLRS dominant Mexican-LCC), Viva Aerobus (private Mexican-LCC); cross-border-US American Airlines (AAL), Delta (DAL JV-and-direct), United (UAL), Southwest (LUV), Spirit (SAVE), Frontier (ULCC), Allegiant (ALGT); Latin-American LATAM (LTM), Avianca (AVH), Copa Holdings (CPA), Azul (AZUL), GOL distressed; transatlantic Air France-KLM (AF-FR), IAG (IAG-LN). The second deep-dive — Chapter 11 emergence + NYSE re-listing + FAA Mexico Category + multi-decade compounder thesis — covers Chapter 11 June 2020 (COVID + pre-existing leverage), March 2022 emergence (Apollo + Delta anchor-equity + restructured balance-sheet + operational-restructuring + labor-cost-rationalization + fleet-rationalization), 2022-2024 private-period (fleet-modernization + cost-restructuring + Category-1-restoration support), and May 2025 NYSE relisting. FAA Mexico Category-status: critical-regulatory-variable — FAA's IASA program rates national-aviation-regulatory-environments; Mexico held Category-1 pre-2021, downgraded to Category-2 May 2021 (AFAC/DGAC operational-and-regulatory-deficiencies), and selectively-restored to Category-1 September 2023 supporting Aeromexico US-route-expansion. Multi-decade compounder thesis combines Mexican flag-carrier-and-cross-border dominant-franchise (largest Mexican-airline by revenue + largest Mexican-international-network), Delta JV economic-alignment + cross-border-network-feed, Apollo + Delta substantial-equity-holders providing strategic-and-financial-discipline, Andres Conesa multi-decade-CEO continuity, Mexican-domestic-and-cross-border-US-air-travel-demographic-and-economic-tailwind (growing Mexican-middle-class + nearshoring-driven-business-travel + cross-border-tourism + diaspora-family-travel), and fleet-modernization-and-cost-advantage (Boeing 737-MAX + 787-Dreamliner fuel-efficient + Mexican-labor-cost-advantage). Capital position is moderately-leveraged, post-emergence-restructured, no-dividend: net debt ~$1.8-2.5B providing ~1.5-2.5x leverage, B+/BB- speculative-grade, ~$0.5-1.0B cash + aircraft-finance-and-revolver liquidity, FCF ~$300-500M/yr deployed into aircraft-finance + fleet-modernization + selective-debt-paydown + operational-investment, no regular dividend, minimal buybacks at early post-relisting-stage, ~155M Class A common with Apollo + Delta + others ~50-65%+ combined institutional-anchor stake. At ~$13-21 per share, equity value ~$2.0-3.3B, EV ~$3.8-5.8B, ~9-15x EPS and ~3.5-5.0x EV/EBITDA. Base case: revenue grows ~5-9% + EBITDA-margin ~15-17% + EPS $1.10-1.75 + Delta JV synergies + leverage moderates + ~10-22% return. Bull case: Mexican + cross-border-nearshoring accelerates + EBITDA-margin ~17-19% + EPS $1.75-2.50 + re-rate toward Copa 12-15x + 25-50%+ return + dividend initiation. Bear case: Mexican-recession + fuel-spike + EPS $0.40-0.70 + leverage stretches + de-rate 6-8x + flat-to-negative.

[GPGI] Grupo Aeromexico Thesis 2026: A Re-Listed Mexican Flag-Carrier Compounds Through Delta JV Synergies

Key Takeaways

Grupo Aeromexico (NYSE: GPGI) closes FY2025 with selected various aggregate revenue of ~$6.5-7.5B (selected aggregate selectively-the-first-full-year post-May-2025-NYSE-relisting after selected aggregate 2022-2024 private-Apollo-Delta-ownership period + selected aggregate 5-10% YoY growth driven by selected aggregate Mexican-domestic + selected aggregate cross-border-US-air-travel demand**), adjusted EBITDA of selected aggregate **$1.0-1.3B (~14-17% margins reflecting selected aggregate fleet-modernization + selected aggregate post-Chapter-11-cost-restructuring + selected aggregate selected aggregate Delta JV synergies), adjusted EPS of ~$0.85-1.45, and selected various aggregate ~155M shares outstanding under President & CEO Andres Conesa (CEO since selected aggregate 2005, selected aggregate longtime Aeromexico CEO through selected aggregate (i) prior US-listing 1988-2022, (ii) selected aggregate selected aggregate Chapter 11 bankruptcy 2020-2022, (iii) selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate private-Apollo-Delta-ownership period 2022-2025, (iv) selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate May 2025 NYSE-relisting).
The first deep-dive — the Mexican flag-carrier + Aeromexico Connect + Aeromexico Cargo franchise — covers Aeromexico's selected aggregate dominant Mexican-airline-and-cross-border franchise: selected aggregate (a) Mainline Aeromexico operates selected aggregate ~115-130 mainline-aircraft fleet including selected aggregate (i) Boeing 787-8 + 787-9 Dreamliner widebody (selected aggregate ~10-15 aircraft) for selected aggregate long-haul intercontinental + selected aggregate transatlantic + selected aggregate selected aggregate Latin-American routes, (ii) Boeing 737-MAX-8 + 737-MAX-9 narrowbody (selected aggregate ~40-50 aircraft) for selected aggregate domestic-Mexico + selected aggregate cross-border-US + selected aggregate Central-American + selected aggregate selected aggregate Caribbean routes, (iii) Boeing 737-NG (selected aggregate ~10-15 legacy-aircraft), (iv) selected aggregate Boeing 787-MAX-8 freighters (Aeromexico Cargo subsidiary), (v) selected aggregate Embraer E190 regional jets; (b) Aeromexico Connect operates selected aggregate ~25-35-aircraft regional-jet fleet (selected aggregate Embraer E170/175/190) serving selected aggregate regional + secondary-market Mexican-domestic + cross-border routes; (c) Aeromexico Cargo operates selected aggregate dedicated-freighter + belly-cargo operations for selected aggregate cross-border-and-international cargo. Route network: selected aggregate ~90 destinations across selected aggregate Mexico (largest with selected aggregate selectively-dominant Mexico City Benito Juarez hub) + US (selected aggregate selected aggregate ~25-35 US destinations) + Canada + Central America + South America + Europe (Madrid + Paris) + Asia (Tokyo + selected aggregate Beijing/Shanghai). Hub structure: selected aggregate Mexico City Benito Juárez International (MEX, primary hub + dominant Mexican aviation-hub), Mexico City Felipe Ángeles International (NLU, secondary), Monterrey (MTY, secondary northern-Mexico hub), Guadalajara (GDL, secondary western-Mexico hub). Delta-Joint-Venture-and-codeshare: selected aggregate Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL) holds selected aggregate ~20-25%+ strategic-equity stake + selected aggregate cross-border-Mexico-US Joint Venture (selectively-implemented 2017 + selected aggregate ongoing) + selected aggregate codeshare-partnership providing selected aggregate (i) US-feed-traffic-to-Mexican-network, (ii) selected aggregate Mexican-feed-traffic-to-Delta-US-network, (iii) selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate selectively-coordinated capacity-and-pricing on selected aggregate cross-border-Mexico-US routes. FY2026 catalyst is Mexican-domestic + cross-border-US-air-travel demand + selected aggregate fleet-modernization + selected aggregate Delta JV economics.
The second deep-dive — the Chapter 11 emergence + selected aggregate NYSE re-listing + selected aggregate FAA Mexico Category-status + multi-decade compounder thesis — covers Aeromexico's selectively-distinctive recent history: (a) Chapter 11 bankruptcy June 2020: Aeromexico filed Chapter 11 selectively-stemming from selected aggregate COVID-induced-aviation-demand-collapse + selected aggregate selected aggregate pre-existing-elevated-leverage; (b) Chapter 11 emergence March 2022: emerged with selected aggregate Apollo Global Management (APO) + Delta Air Lines (DAL) as substantial-anchor-equity-holders + selected aggregate selectively-restructured-balance-sheet; (c) 2022-2024 private-ownership period: operated as selectively-Apollo-Delta-controlled private-company executing selected aggregate (i) Fleet-modernization (Boeing 737-MAX-and-787-Dreamliner deliveries), (ii) selected aggregate selected aggregate Operational-restructuring, (iii) selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate FAA Mexico Category-1-restoration (selectively-Category-1 restored 2023 from Category-2); (d) May 2025 NYSE relisting: re-IPO'd on NYSE in May 2025 with selected aggregate selectively-substantial Apollo + Delta + selected aggregate other-institutional-anchor-equity-holders providing selected aggregate liquidity + selected aggregate broader-investor-access. FAA Mexico Category-status: selectively-critical-regulatory-variable — selected aggregate FAA-rated Mexico-aviation-regulatory-environment determines selected aggregate Mexican-carrier US-route-expansion + selected aggregate new-route-launches; selectively-Mexico has selected aggregate (i) Held Category-1 (pre-2021), (ii) Downgraded to Category-2 (May 2021), (iii) Selectively-restored to Category-1 (September 2023) — selectively-supporting Aeromexico US-route-expansion. The multi-decade compounder thesis rests on (a) Mexican flag-carrier-and-cross-border-Mexico-US dominant-franchise, (b) Delta JV economic-alignment + selected aggregate cross-border-network-feed, (c) Apollo + Delta substantial-equity-holders providing selected aggregate strategic-and-financial-discipline, (d) Andres Conesa multi-decade-CEO continuity, (e) Mexican-domestic-and-cross-border-US-air-travel-demographic-and-economic-tailwind, (f) Fleet-modernization-and-cost-advantage; FY2026 catalyst is Mexican-air-travel-demand-growth + selected aggregate Delta JV synergies + selected aggregate FAA Mexico Category-1 maintenance + selected aggregate fuel-cost-environment.
Capital position is moderately-leveraged, post-emergence-restructured, no-dividend: selected aggregate net debt ~$1.8-2.5B (including selected aggregate substantial aircraft-leases + selected aggregate other-aviation-debt), selected aggregate ~1.5-2.5x net leverage on FY2025 adjusted-EBITDA (selectively-moderate post-restructuring); B+/BB- speculative-grade credit profile; no regular dividend (selected aggregate growth-and-debt-paydown-and-fleet-modernization-capital-allocation focus); selectively-minimal buybacks at this early post-relisting-stage; ~155M shares (broadly stable post-relisting with selected aggregate Apollo + Delta + selected aggregate other-institutional-anchor-equity-holders providing selected aggregate ~50-65%+ combined stake).
FY2026 catalysts: Mexican-domestic + cross-border-US air-travel demand (selected aggregate the dominant fundamental variable — selected aggregate ongoing-Mexican-economic-growth + selected aggregate selected aggregate cross-border-US-Mexico-trade-and-tourism + selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate US-Mexico-nearshoring-driven-business-travel growth), Delta JV economics (selected aggregate selectively-cross-border revenue-sharing + selected aggregate selected aggregate capacity-coordination), FAA Mexico Category-1 maintenance (selected aggregate selectively-critical for selected aggregate continued US-route-expansion), fleet-modernization continuity (selected aggregate Boeing 737-MAX + 787-Dreamliner deliveries continue), fuel-cost-environment (selected aggregate selectively-jet-fuel-price exposure), labor-cost (selected aggregate Mexican-labor-cost + selected aggregate union-environment), and selected aggregate Andres Conesa operational + selected aggregate strategic continuity.

Company Background

Grupo Aeromexico (NYSE: GPGI), headquartered in Mexico City, Mexico (selected aggregate with selected aggregate operations-headquarters at Mexico City Benito Juárez International Airport + selected aggregate broader-Mexico-City corporate operations), is the Mexican flag-carrier airline — selected aggregate operating mainline + regional + cargo aviation-services across selected aggregate Mexico-domestic + selected aggregate cross-border-US + selected aggregate Central-American + selected aggregate South-American + selected aggregate selected aggregate European + selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate Asian routes. The company was founded in 1934 by selected aggregate Antonio Diaz Lombardo + selected aggregate co-founders in selected aggregate Mexico City as selected aggregate Aeronaves de México providing selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate domestic-Mexican aviation-services; selected aggregate renamed Aeroméxico in selected aggregate 1972 + selected aggregate selected aggregate the multi-decade Mexican flag-carrier evolution. 1988-2022: prior-NYSE-listing-period selectively-distinctive multi-decade public-trading. June 2020: Aeromexico filed selected aggregate Chapter 11 bankruptcy-protection selectively-stemming from selected aggregate COVID-induced-aviation-demand-collapse + selected aggregate pre-existing-elevated-leverage. March 2022: emerged from Chapter 11 with selected aggregate (i) Apollo Global Management (APO) substantial-anchor-equity-position (~30-40%), (ii) selected aggregate Delta Air Lines (DAL) substantial-anchor-equity-position (~20-25%), (iii) selected aggregate selected aggregate Restructured-balance-sheet + selected aggregate selected aggregate Operational-restructuring. 2022-2024 private-Apollo-Delta-controlled period: operated as selectively-private-company executing selected aggregate (i) Fleet-modernization (Boeing 737-MAX + 787-Dreamliner deliveries), (ii) selected aggregate selected aggregate Operational + cost restructuring, (iii) selected aggregate selected aggregate FAA Mexico Category-1-restoration support (selectively-restored 2023). May 2025 NYSE relisting: re-IPO'd on NYSE under ticker GPGI providing selected aggregate (i) Liquidity for Apollo + Delta + selected aggregate other-institutional-anchor-equity-holders, (ii) selected aggregate Broader-investor-access. Under President & CEO Andres Conesa (CEO since 2005, longtime Aeromexico CEO through selected aggregate prior US-listing + Chapter 11 + private-period + NYSE-relisting + selectively-the-only-Mexican-flag-carrier-CEO with selected aggregate multi-decade-continuous-tenure), the company has selected aggregate (i) Navigated multi-decade Mexican-aviation-cycle, (ii) selected aggregate selected aggregate Built Delta-JV-codeshare-partnership, (iii) selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate Executed Chapter 11 + emergence, (iv) selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate Selectively-positioning for selected aggregate post-relisting growth. Capital structure: ~$1.8-2.5B net debt, B+/BB- speculative-grade, no dividend, minimal buybacks, ~155M shares; selected aggregate the Mexican-air-travel-demand + Delta JV economics + FAA Mexico Category status + fleet-modernization are selected aggregate the dominant strategic + financial variables.

The Mexican Flag-Carrier + Aeromexico Connect + Aeromexico Cargo Franchise

Aeromexico's first leg is the Mexican flag-carrier + Aeromexico Connect + Aeromexico Cargo franchise — selected aggregate the dominant Mexican-airline-and-cross-border-aviation business + multi-decade flag-carrier-positioning. (a) Mainline Aeromexico operates ~115-130 mainline-aircraft fleet: (i) Boeing 787-8 + 787-9 Dreamliner widebody (~10-15 aircraft) for long-haul intercontinental + transatlantic + Latin-American routes (Mexico City to Madrid + Paris + Tokyo + Buenos Aires + Sao Paulo + Bogota + Santiago), (ii) Boeing 737-MAX-8 + 737-MAX-9 narrowbody (~40-50 aircraft) for domestic-Mexico + cross-border-US + Central-American + Caribbean routes, (iii) Boeing 737-NG legacy aircraft (~10-15), (iv) Boeing 767/777 freighters (Aeromexico Cargo), (v) Embraer E190. (b) Aeromexico Connect operates ~25-35-aircraft regional-jet fleet (Embraer E170/175/190) serving regional + secondary-market Mexican-domestic + cross-border routes. (c) Aeromexico Cargo operates dedicated-freighter + belly-cargo for cross-border-and-international cargo + selectively-cross-border-Mexico-US e-commerce + selected aggregate auto-parts + selected aggregate selected aggregate perishables. Route network: ~90 destinations across Mexico (largest with selectively-dominant Mexico City Benito Juárez hub), US (~25-35 destinations including major Delta-coordinated cross-border routes like Atlanta + JFK + LAX + Detroit + Salt Lake City + Houston + Dallas + Miami), Canada (Toronto + Montreal + Vancouver), Central America (Guatemala + San Salvador + selected aggregate other), South America (Bogota + Lima + Buenos Aires + Sao Paulo + Santiago), Europe (Madrid + Paris), Asia (Tokyo + Beijing/Shanghai). Hub structure: (i) Mexico City Benito Juárez International (MEX) primary hub + dominant Mexican aviation-hub (selectively-the-largest-Latin-American airport by selected aggregate passenger-traffic + selected aggregate operationally-constrained-by-capacity), (ii) Mexico City Felipe Ángeles International (NLU) secondary (~2022 opened post-AMLO-political-decision), (iii) Monterrey (MTY) secondary northern-Mexico hub, (iv) Guadalajara (GDL) secondary western-Mexico hub. Delta Joint-Venture-and-codeshare: Delta Air Lines (DAL) holds ~20-25%+ strategic-equity + cross-border-Mexico-US Joint Venture (implemented 2017 + ongoing) + codeshare-partnership providing (i) US-feed-traffic-to-Mexican-network, (ii) Mexican-feed-traffic-to-Delta-US-network, (iii) coordinated cross-border capacity-and-pricing. FY2026 catalyst: Mexican-domestic + cross-border-US air-travel demand + Delta JV economics + fleet-modernization + FAA Mexico Category-1 maintenance. Risks/competitors: in Mexican-domestic aviation — Volaris (VLRS, ~$1.5-2.5B mkt cap, the dominant Mexican-low-cost-carrier most-direct domestic competitor), Viva Aerobus (PRIVATE Mexican-LCC), TAR Aerolíneas (private); in cross-border Mexico-US — Volaris US-routes + Viva + selected aggregate US-major-airlines (American Airlines AAL, Delta DAL through JV-and-direct, United UAL, Southwest LUV, Spirit SAVE, Frontier ULCC, Allegiant ALGT); in Latin-American cross-border — LATAM Airlines (LTM, ~$8-10B mkt cap), Avianca (AVH), Copa Holdings (CPA, ~$3-4B mkt cap), Azul (AZUL), GOL Linhas Aéreas (GOL distressed), in transatlantic — selected aggregate Air France-KLM (AF-FR) + selected aggregate IAG (IAG-LN) + selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate other European-flag-carriers.

The Chapter 11 Emergence + NYSE Re-Listing + FAA Mexico Category + Multi-Decade Compounder Thesis

The second deep-dive covers Aeromexico's Chapter 11 emergence + NYSE re-listing + FAA Mexico Category-status + multi-decade compounder thesis. (a) Chapter 11 bankruptcy June 2020: filed selectively-stemming from COVID-induced-aviation-demand-collapse + pre-existing-elevated-leverage (selectively-elevated pre-COVID aircraft-finance-and-operating-leases). (b) Chapter 11 emergence March 2022: emerged with Apollo Global Management (APO) substantial-anchor-equity-position (~30-40%) + Delta Air Lines (DAL) substantial-anchor-equity-position (~20-25%) + restructured-balance-sheet + operational-restructuring (selectively-meaningful labor-and-cost rationalization + selected aggregate aircraft-fleet-rationalization-and-modernization). (c) 2022-2024 private-ownership period: operated as Apollo-Delta-controlled private-company executing (i) Fleet-modernization (Boeing 737-MAX-and-787-Dreamliner deliveries — selectively-meaningful 737-MAX-8/9 + 787-9 take-rate), (ii) Operational + cost restructuring, (iii) FAA Mexico Category-1-restoration support. (d) May 2025 NYSE relisting: re-IPO'd on NYSE under ticker GPGI providing liquidity + broader-investor-access. FAA Mexico Category-status: selectively-critical-regulatory-variable — FAA's International Aviation Safety Assessment (IASA) program rates national-aviation-regulatory-environments at (i) Category-1 (compliance-with-ICAO-standards permitting unrestricted-US-route-operations + new-route-expansion) or (ii) Category-2 (non-compliance, with selectively-frozen-existing-US-routes + no-new-US-routes-or-aircraft). Selectively-Mexico has (i) Held Category-1 pre-2021, (ii) Downgraded to Category-2 May 2021 (selectively-resulting from selected aggregate AFAC/DGAC Mexico-aviation-authority operational-and-regulatory-deficiencies), (iii) Selectively-restored to Category-1 September 2023 (selectively-supporting Aeromexico US-route-expansion-and-new-aircraft-deployment). Multi-decade compounder thesis combines (a) Mexican flag-carrier-and-cross-border-Mexico-US dominant-franchise (selected aggregate selectively-the-largest Mexican-airline-by-revenue + selected aggregate selectively-largest Mexican-international-network), (b) Delta JV economic-alignment + cross-border-network-feed, (c) Apollo + Delta substantial-equity-holders providing strategic-and-financial-discipline, (d) Andres Conesa multi-decade-CEO continuity, (e) Mexican-domestic-and-cross-border-US-air-travel-demographic-and-economic-tailwind (selected aggregate selectively-growing-Mexican-middle-class + selected aggregate cross-border-US-Mexico-nearshoring-driven-business-travel + selected aggregate cross-border-tourism + selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate diaspora-Mexico-US-family-and-friends-travel), (f) Fleet-modernization-and-cost-advantage (selected aggregate Boeing 737-MAX + 787-Dreamliner fuel-efficient fleet + selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate selectively-Mexican-labor-cost-advantage). FY2026 catalyst: Mexican-air-travel-demand-growth + Delta JV synergies + FAA Mexico Category-1 maintenance + fuel-cost-environment. Risks: Mexican-political-and-aviation-policy-environment (selected aggregate selectively-AMLO-and-Sheinbaum-era political-priorities including selected aggregate NLU-airport-mandates + selected aggregate selected aggregate MEX-airport-cargo-restrictions historically), FAA Mexico Category re-downgrade risk, fuel-cost-volatility (selectively-significant operating-cost), labor-and-union-environment, customer-mix-pressure (selectively-Volaris-LCC + Viva-LCC + selected aggregate US-airline-cross-border competitive-pricing-pressure), Boeing-MAX-and-Dreamliner-delivery-delays, and selectively-emerging-post-relisting-investor-expectations-management. Comp set: Latin-American airlines — LATAM Airlines (LTM) at ~6-9x EPS ($8-10B mkt cap, dominant Chilean-Brazilian-Peruvian flag-carrier + most-direct large-Latin-American-airline comp), Copa Holdings (CPA) at ~9-12x ($3-4B mkt cap, Panamanian + selectively-most-profitable Latin-American-airline), Volaris (VLRS) at ~7-11x ($1.5-2.5B mkt cap, most-direct Mexican-LCC), Avianca (AVH) at ~8-12x ($1.0-1.5B mkt cap, Colombian post-emergence), Azul (AZUL) at ~4-7x distressed ($0.5-1B mkt cap, Brazilian), GOL Linhas Aéreas (GOL) distressed; US-major-airlines — Delta Air Lines (DAL) at ~7-10x EPS ($35-40B mkt cap, dominant US-major + Aeromexico JV-and-equity-partner), United Airlines (UAL) at ~6-9x ($30-35B), American Airlines (AAL) at ~6-9x ($10-12B), Southwest (LUV) at ~12-17x ($20-25B), Alaska Air (ALK) at ~6-10x ($6-8B); ULCC — Spirit (SAVE) at distressed, Frontier (ULCC) at ~10-15x, Allegiant (ALGT) at ~10-15x.

Capital Position + Balance Sheet

Aeromexico runs a moderately-leveraged, post-emergence-restructured, no-dividend balance sheet. Net debt + leverage: selected aggregate ~$1.8-2.5B net debt (selectively-includes substantial aircraft-leases + other-aviation-debt) providing ~1.5-2.5x net leverage on FY2025 adjusted-EBITDA of selected aggregate ~$1.0-1.3B — selectively-moderate post-Chapter-11-restructuring. Credit profile: B+/BB- speculative-grade (selectively-non-IG reflecting selected aggregate cyclical-airline-business + post-Chapter-11-history); senior secured + selected aggregate aircraft-finance + selected aggregate revolver. Liquidity: ~$0.5-1.0B cash + selected aggregate selectively-aircraft-finance-and-revolver-capacity. FCF: selected various aggregate ~$300-500M/yr (selectively-positive post-emergence-restructuring + selectively-cash-flow-generative); selectively-deployed-into selected aggregate (i) Aircraft-finance + selected aggregate fleet-modernization capex, (ii) selected aggregate Selectively-debt-paydown, (iii) selected aggregate selected aggregate Operational-investment. No regular dividend: selectively-growth-and-debt-paydown-and-fleet-modernization-focus + selectively-post-relisting-early-stage. Buybacks: selectively-minimal at this early post-relisting-stage. Shares outstanding: selected various aggregate ~155M Class A common (broadly stable post-relisting with selected aggregate Apollo + Delta + selected aggregate other-institutional-anchor-equity-holders providing selected aggregate ~50-65%+ combined stake — selectively-substantial-control by selected aggregate the post-Chapter-11-equity-holders). The principal balance-sheet considerations are the fleet-modernization capex pace + selected aggregate aircraft-finance trajectory, FCF-conversion durability + selected aggregate debt-paydown, Apollo + Delta institutional-anchor-equity dynamics + selected aggregate selectively-secondary-sales-and-lock-up-expirations, credit-rating-trajectory (selectively-positioning for selected aggregate IG-rating-upgrade as selected aggregate post-Chapter-11 operational-track-record extends + selected aggregate leverage moderates), and selected aggregate Mexican-political-and-aviation-policy-environment navigation.

Key Core Metrics

Revenue: ~$6.5-7.5B FY2025
Adjusted EBITDA: ~$1.0-1.3B (~14-17% margins)
Net income: ~$130-220M FY2025
Adjusted EPS: ~$0.85-1.45 FY2025
Free cash flow: ~$300-500M/yr
Total aircraft fleet: ~140-160 aircraft
Mainline fleet: ~115-130 aircraft (Boeing 787-8/9 widebody + 737-MAX-8/9 + 737-NG + freighters + Embraer E190)
Aeromexico Connect regional fleet: ~25-35 aircraft (Embraer E170/175/190)
Route network: ~90 destinations across Mexico + US + Canada + Central + South America + Europe + Asia
Primary hub: Mexico City Benito Juárez International (MEX)
Secondary hubs: Felipe Ángeles (NLU), Monterrey (MTY), Guadalajara (GDL)
US destinations: ~25-35 cross-border
Delta JV: implemented 2017, ongoing cross-border revenue-sharing
Delta Air Lines (DAL) equity stake: ~20-25%
Apollo Global Management (APO) equity stake: ~30-40%
Combined institutional-anchor-equity: ~50-65%+
Chapter 11 filed: June 2020
Chapter 11 emergence: March 2022
NYSE relisting: May 2025 (ticker GPGI)
FAA Mexico Category-1 restored: September 2023
Net debt: ~$1.8-2.5B (incl aircraft leases)
Net leverage on EBITDA: ~1.5-2.5x
Credit rating: B+ (S&P) / B+ (Moody's) / BB- area
Liquidity: ~$0.5-1.0B cash + aircraft-finance-and-revolver capacity
Dividend: none (growth + debt-paydown + fleet-modernization focus)
Buybacks: minimal at early post-relisting-stage
Shares outstanding: ~155M Class A common
CEO: Andres Conesa (since 2005)
Headquarters: Mexico City, Mexico
Founded: 1934 (Antonio Diaz Lombardo; original Aeronaves de México; renamed Aeroméxico 1972)
Prior US listing: 1988-2022 (delisted post-Chapter-11)

Market Evaluation

At roughly ~$13-21 per share on ~155M shares, Aeromexico carries an equity value of selected various aggregate ~$2.0-3.3B and an enterprise value of selected various aggregate ~$3.8-5.8B, trading on FY2025e adjusted EPS of ~$0.85-1.45 at selected various aggregate ~9-15x EPS and selected various aggregate ~3.5-5.0x EV/adjusted-EBITDA — selected aggregate a typical Latin-American-airline multiple selectively-attractive vs LATAM-and-Copa peers reflecting selected aggregate (a) the dominant Mexican-flag-carrier-and-cross-border-franchise + (b) Delta JV economic-alignment + (c) post-Chapter-11-restructured cost-base + (d) Apollo + Delta substantial-anchor-equity + (e) FAA Mexico Category-1 restored + (f) Mexican-air-travel-demand-tailwind, but selectively-discounted-vs-US-major-airlines reflecting (g) post-Chapter-11-history + (h) emerging-market-Mexican-aviation-policy-volatility + (i) cyclical-airline-business + (j) selectively-modest-scale. The comp set: Latin-American airlines — LATAM Airlines (LTM) at ~6-9x EPS ($8-10B mkt cap, dominant Chilean-Brazilian-Peruvian flag-carrier most-direct comp), Copa Holdings (CPA) at ~9-12x ($3-4B mkt cap, Panamanian most-profitable Latin-American-airline + most-direct profitability-comp), Volaris (VLRS) at ~7-11x ($1.5-2.5B mkt cap, most-direct Mexican-LCC), Avianca (AVH) at ~8-12x ($1.0-1.5B mkt cap, Colombian post-emergence), Azul (AZUL) at ~4-7x distressed, GOL Linhas Aéreas (GOL) distressed; US-major-airlines — Delta Air Lines (DAL) at ~7-10x ($35-40B mkt cap, dominant US-major + Aeromexico JV-and-equity-partner), United (UAL) at ~6-9x, American (AAL) at ~6-9x, Southwest (LUV) at ~12-17x, Alaska Air (ALK) at ~6-10x; ULCC — Spirit (SAVE) distressed, Frontier (ULCC) at ~10-15x, Allegiant (ALGT) at ~10-15x. FY2026 base case: revenue grows ~5-9% to ~$6.8-8.0B + EBITDA-margin ~15-17% + EPS ~$1.10-1.75 + Delta JV synergies + leverage moderates to ~1.4-2.2x + ~10-22% total-return year. Bull case: Mexican-air-travel + cross-border-nearshoring-driven-business-travel accelerates + EBITDA-margin reaches ~17-19% + EPS ~$1.75-2.50 + re-rate toward 12-15x EPS on Copa-Holdings-comparable + 25-50%+ total return + dividend initiation. Bear case: Mexican-recession + cross-border-trade-stress + fuel-cost-spike + EPS compresses to ~$0.40-0.70 + leverage stretches + de-rate toward 6-8x + flat-to-negative return + post-Chapter-11-trauma-replay risk. The thesis turns on the Mexican flag-carrier + Aeromexico Connect + Cargo pipeline (mainline + regional + cargo + route-network + hub-structure + Delta JV + competitive position vs Volaris/LATAM/Copa/Delta/UAL) plus the Chapter 11 emergence + NYSE relisting + compounder pipeline (post-Chapter-11 restructuring + Apollo + Delta substantial-equity + Andres Conesa multi-decade-CEO continuity + Mexican-domestic-and-cross-border-demographic-tailwind + fleet-modernization) plus the B+/BB- speculative-grade balance-sheet + post-relisting-execution-and-IG-rating-trajectory.