TechnipFMC 2025-26: Subsea $9.4B, $1B+ Cap Return, Backlog $16.6B
FY25 revenue $9.93B (+9%); op income $957M (-1%); NI $964M (+14%); EPS $2.30. Subsea revenue +11%, EBITDA margin +340bp to 20.1%. Surface +170bp to 16.7%. FY25 inbound $11.2B, backlog $16.6B. FCF $1.4B; $1B returned. iEPCI + Subsea 2.0 driving share. FY26: Subsea revenue $9.4B / 21.5% margin midpoint; Surface $1.2B / 17.25%. FCF $1.3-$1.45B; >70% return.
Key takeaways
- Subsea margin expansion +340bp to 20.1%. Three years of margin compounding. iEPCI + Subsea 2.0 commercial models yielding higher-quality contract structures + cycle-time reduction. Stable above-20% margin floor now structural.
- Backlog $16.6B + Subsea Opportunities $29B. Forward visibility unusually strong. Expect $10B inbound 2026 (vs $10.1B FY25). Legacy projects <10% of backlog — clean book of business.
- FY25 FCF $1.4B + $1B returned to shareholders. Capital return ~70% of FCF. Board authorized additional $2B buyback Q3. FY26 plan: ≥70% of $1.3-1.45B FCF returned ($900M+).
- Surface Technologies stabilized. Q4 margin 18.0% (+160bp sequential). Full-year +170bp to 16.7%. Exit of unprofitable North American markets pays off.
- FY26 guide consolidating: Subsea $9.1-$9.5B / 20.5-22% margin; Surface $1.2B / 17.25%. Total adj EBITDA implied ~$2.0B (+11% YoY). Cycle-time reduction continues driving operating leverage.
Business
TechnipFMC plc is the world leader in subsea oilfield services + surface oilfield technology, with two segments + a unique commercial model:
- Subsea (~85% of revenue, 90%+ of EBITDA). FPSOs + flowlines + risers + manifolds + injection systems + iEPCI integrated EPC. iEPCI = integrated engineering + procurement + construction (Subsea 2.0 platform). Q4 revenue $2.2B. Adj EBITDA margin 18.9% Q4, 20.1% FY (+340bp).
- Surface Technologies (~15%). Wellheads + pressure control + flow management. Restructured to focus on international markets. Q4 revenue $323M; margin 18%.
Strategic moves FY25:
- iEPCI + Subsea 2.0 ramping (4-year strategy now bearing fruit)
- Subsea Opportunities list grew to $29B (+11% YoY from ~$26B Q1)
- 15 of last 16 quarters book-to-bill above 1
- Petrobras + BP collaborations on hybrid flexible pipe + all-electric tech
- Strategic alliance with Cairn Oil & Gas (Q1)
- Equinor + Shell iEPCI awards (Q1)
- $2B additional buyback authorized Q3
- 95% of revenue from outside US land market (insulated from US shale dynamics)
FY25 financial performance
| Metric (FY) | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($B) | 6.70 | 7.83 | 9.08 | 9.93 |
| Revenue YoY | n/a | +17% | +16% | +9% |
| Gross profit ($B) | 0.90 | 1.34 | 1.71 | 1.72 |
| Op income ($M) | 200 | 567 | 969 | 957 |
| Op margin | 3.0% | 7.2% | 10.7% | 9.6% |
| Net income ($M) | -107 | 23 | 843 | 964 |
| Diluted EPS ($) | -0.14 | 0.05 | 1.91 | 2.30 |
| FCF ($M) | 194 | 451 | 679 | 1,447 |
| Capex ($M) | -158 | -225 | -282 | -317 |
| Total debt ($B) | 2.29 | 1.97 | 1.79 | 2.02 |
| Dividends ($M) | 0 | -44 | -86 | -82 |
| Buyback ($M) | -100 | -205 | -400 | -918 |
The earnings progression is exceptional: revenue 4-yr CAGR ~14%; op income inflected from $200M FY22 → $957M FY25 (~5x). EPS from -$0.14 → $2.30. FCF $1.45B (+113% YoY). Buyback $918M FY25 (vs $400M FY24 — 2.3x acceleration).
Capital allocation
- Capex: $-317M FY25 (3.2% of revenue).
- Dividends: $-82M FY25 (~$0.20/share). Initiated FY23.
- Buybacks: $-918M FY25 (vs $-400M FY24, +130%). $2B additional auth Q3.
- FCF: $1.45B (+113%).
- M&A: Strategic alliances (Cairn, Petrobras, BP); no major acquisitions.
- Debt: $2.02B (+$230M YoY).
FY26 outlook (per Q4 2025 call, 2026-02-19)
| FY26 framework | Detail |
|---|---|
| Subsea revenue | $9.4B (midpoint of $9.1-$9.5B) |
| Subsea adj EBITDA margin | 21.5% (range 20.5-22%) |
| Surface revenue | Just over $1.2B |
| Surface adj EBITDA margin | 17.25% midpoint |
| Capex | ~$340M |
| FCF | $1.3B to $1.45B |
| Cap return | ≥70% of FCF |
| Corporate expense | $120M ($40M Q1) |
Implied total adj EBITDA ~$2.05B (+11% YoY). Subsea revenue $9.4B vs $9.1B FY25 implies +3% (modest) but margin expansion drives EBITDA growth.
Inbound expected $10B FY26 (in line with FY25 $10.1B); supporting backlog continuity.
Key risks
- Commodity prices. Offshore investment moderately sensitive to oil prices. Mid-cycle Brent thesis underpins guide.
- Subsea project cycle time. TechnipFMC believes 4-year head start in iEPCI; competitors copying model could compress margin advantage.
- FX volatility. Multi-currency global operation.
- Project execution. Long-tail offshore projects (Guyana, Mozambique, Suriname) carry execution risk.
- Tariff exposure. FY25 impact ≤$20M to adj EBITDA — manageable; FY26 unclear in current trade environment.
- US land market exposure. 5% of revenue is in US land — most cyclical / commodity-sensitive segment.
Bottom line
FTI FY25 is the year iEPCI + Subsea 2.0 strategy paid off: revenue +9%, Subsea EBITDA margin +340bp to 20.1%, FCF $1.45B (+113%), $1B returned to shareholders + $2B additional buyback authorized. Backlog $16.6B + opportunity pipeline $29B = forward visibility. FY26 guide implies +11% adj EBITDA on +5% revenue — operating leverage + margin expansion. Risks are commodity + execution + competitive. Best-in-class subsea oilfield services with structurally improving economics.
Citations
- TechnipFMC plc FY25 Form 10-K (filed February 2026, SEC EDGAR).
- FTI Q4 2025 earnings call, 2026-02-19 — FY25 inbound $11.2B, backlog $16.6B, revenue $9.9B (+9%), adj EBITDA $1.8B (+33%), FCF $1.4B, $1B returned; Subsea margin +340bp to 20.1%; FY26 guide (Subsea $9.4B/21.5%, Surface $1.2B/17.25%, FCF $1.3-1.45B, ≥70% return).
- FTI Q3 2025 earnings call, 2025-10-23 — $2B additional buyback auth; Subsea Opp list $29B; book-to-bill >1 in 15 of 16 quarters.
- FTI Q2 2025 earnings call, 2025-07-24 — Subsea margin 21.8%; iEPCI awards Equinor + Shell + Petrobras + BP; hybrid flexible pipe + all-electric tech.
- FTI Q1 2025 earnings call, 2025-04-24 — Subsea inbound $2.8B (book-to-bill 1.4); 95% revenue ex-US land; Cairn alliance; $20M tariff impact.
- Internal financial_statements view (consolidated annual + cash flow + capital structure).