First Solar 2025-26: 17.5GW Record, Backlog 50.1GW, FY26 EBITDA $2.6-$2.8B
FY25 revenue $5.22B (+24%); op income $1.60B (+15%); NI $1.53B (+18%); EPS $14.21 (+18%). Record 17.5GW modules sold (+24% YoY). Backlog 50.1GW / $15B at year-end (+23.2GW with adjusters generating up to $600M in 2027-2028). Q4 gross margin expansion driven by higher US-manufactured module mix + lower freight + glass supply chain resolution. Louisiana commercial production initiated. Onshoring Series 6 finishing in South Carolina announced. CdTe-based CURE semiconductor platform initial modules delivered + CURE conversion rollout starting at Ohio Series 6 factory. Perovskite thin film program advancing. FY26 net sales $4.9-$5.2B; gross margin $2.5-$2.6B (~49.5%); SG&A $215-$225M; R&D $285-$290M; adj EBITDA $2.6-$2.8B; capex $800M-$1B. Q1 FY26: module sales 3.4-4.0GW; Section 45X tax credits $330-$400M; adj EBITDA $400-$500M.
Key takeaways
- Record 17.5GW shipments + 50.1GW backlog at $15B — the structural setup. FY25 record shipments confirm scale-up. Backlog $15B / 50.1GW provides 4-5 years of visible revenue at FY25 shipment pace. Includes 23.2GW with adjusters generating up to $600M in 2027-2028 — additional upside if benchmarks met.
- FY26 adj EBITDA $2.6-$2.8B (+12-21% from FY25 ~$2.32B implied). This is the structural margin inflection. Combined with 49.5% gross margin (including Section 45X tax credits + ramp + underutilization costs) + $2.6B+ adj EBITDA implies ~50%+ adj EBITDA margin. Solar manufacturing economics at FSLR scale + IRA support + US manufacturing premium = exceptional margin profile.
- CdTe-based CURE semiconductor platform — material technology advancement. Initial CURE modules delivered; CURE conversion rollout starting at Ohio Series 6 factory. CURE represents next-generation thin film + integrated semiconductor platform. Combined with perovskite thin film program (development line + Series 6 module form factor pilot) — multi-year technology roadmap.
- Q4 gross margin expansion via US-manufactured mix + freight + glass. US-manufactured modules carry higher Section 45X tax credit + premium pricing + customer preference (FEOC + IRA Section 232). Lower nonstandard freight + glass supply chain resolution improves margin further.
- Active IP enforcement. US Patent and Trademark Office denied petitions to invalidate TOPCon portfolio; FSLR filed petition with ITC against foreign-headquartered manufacturers infringing TOPCon patent. IP defense is a structural moat.
Business
First Solar, Inc. is the leading US-listed solar module manufacturer producing thin-film cadmium telluride (CdTe) photovoltaic modules. Vertically integrated from semiconductor through assembly. Multi-region manufacturing footprint:
- Series 6 modules (~70% of revenue). Current platform CdTe modules manufactured in Ohio + Vietnam + Malaysia + India. Q4 17.5GW FY shipments record.
- Series 7 modules (~25%). Next-generation CdTe modules. Higher efficiency + lower cost per watt. Growing share of mix.
- CURE platform (~5% but strategic). CdTe-based semiconductor platform. Initial modules delivered FY25. CURE conversion rollout starting at Ohio Series 6 factory.
- Perovskite thin film (development). Perovskite development line launched FY25. Perovskite Series 6 module form factor pilot line sourcing initiated.
Strategic moves FY25:
- 17.5GW record FY shipments
- Backlog 50.1GW / $15B at year-end
- 23.2GW with adjusters ($600M potential 2027-2028)
- 2.3GW gross bookings (excluding India)
- 0.1GW low-bin inventory clearance
- 1GW US utility-scale at $0.364/W
- Louisiana commercial production initiated
- South Carolina onshoring Series 6 finishing announced
- CdTe-based CURE semiconductor platform initial modules delivered
- CURE conversion rollout starting at Ohio Series 6 factory
- Perovskite thin film development line launched
- Perovskite Series 6 form factor pilot line sourcing
- USPTO denied petitions to invalidate TOPCon portfolio
- FSLR filed petition with ITC against foreign manufacturers infringing TOPCon
- $16M FY25 buyback (modest)
FY25 financial performance
| Metric (FY) | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($B) | 2.62 | 3.32 | 4.21 | 5.22 |
| Revenue YoY | n/a | +27% | +27% | +24% |
| Op income ($M) | -27 | 857 | 1,394 | 1,597 |
| Op margin | -1.0% | 25.8% | 33.1% | 30.6% |
| Net income ($M) | -44 | 831 | 1,292 | 1,528 |
| Diluted EPS ($) | -0.41 | 7.74 | 12.02 | 14.21 |
| FCF ($M) | -30 | -785 | -308 | 1,187 |
| Capex ($M) | -904 | -1,387 | -1,526 | -870 |
| Total debt ($M) | 234 | 624 | 719 | 499 |
| Buyback ($M) | -12 | -31 | -20 | -16 |
The earnings progression: revenue 4-yr CAGR ~26% — exceptional scaling. Op income inflection from -$27M (FY22) → $1.60B (FY25). EPS $-0.41 → $14.21. Op margin 30.6% (vs -1.0% FY22) — the cleanest scaling story in industrial / energy.
FCF $1.19B FY25 (vs -$308M FY24) — major inflection. Capex moderated to $-870M (-43% YoY) reflecting capacity build-out completing.
Total debt $499M (-31% YoY) — aggressive deleveraging. Conservative balance sheet.
Capital allocation
- Capex $-870M FY25 (-43% YoY). Build-out moderating. FY26 plan: $800M-$1B.
- Dividends $0 (growth-stage tech).
- Buybacks $-16M FY25 (modest).
- Debt $499M (-31% YoY). Significant paydown.
- FCF $1.19B (transformational improvement from -$308M FY24).
- India credit facility Full repayment expected by 06/30/2026.
FY26 outlook (per Q4 2025 call, 2026-02-24)
| FY26 framework | Detail |
|---|---|
| Net sales | $4.9B to $5.2B |
| Gross margin | $2.5B to $2.6B (~49.5%) |
| SG&A expense | $215M to $225M |
| R&D expense | $285M to $290M |
| Adj EBITDA | $2.6B to $2.8B |
| Q1 FY26 module sales | 3.4 to 4.0 GW |
| Q1 FY26 Section 45X tax credits | $330M to $400M |
| Q1 FY26 adj EBITDA | $400M to $500M |
| Capex | $800M to $1B |
| Year-end gross/net cash | $1.7B to $2.3B |
| India credit facility | Full repayment by 06/30/2026 |
The FY26 framework is exceptional: net sales $4.9-$5.2B (basically flat with FY25 $5.22B at midpoint, but +/-) with gross margin $2.5-$2.6B = 49.5% margin (+150bp vs FY25). Adj EBITDA $2.6-$2.8B = ~50%+ EBITDA margin. The Q1 starting point ($400-$500M adj EBITDA) is robust.
Key risks
Policy + trade environment uncertainties. Q4 mgmt explicit risk. FEOC (Foreign Entity of Concern) restrictions, Section 232 actions, AD/CVD investigations, potential retroactive tariffs all create complexity. US solar industry faces evolving regulatory + trade environment.
Intellectual property risks + ongoing IP enforcement actions. TOPCon patent enforcement is active — USPTO denied invalidation petitions; ITC petition filed against foreign-headquartered manufacturers. Outcome uncertain; IP wins protect margins, IP losses compress.
Tariff impacts on bill of material + finished goods imports. Higher tariff rates + indirect commodity cost pressure. Module + component import dynamics affect cost structure.
Warranty-related matters + potential future loss estimates. Module warranties (typically 25-30 years) create long-tail liability. Unanticipated warranty claims compress margins.
Overcapacity in solar panel market in India. India operations face overcapacity dynamics + vertical integration challenges. Mgmt called out as risk.
Vertically integrated supply chain development in India. India is multi-year build with execution complexity. India credit facility repayment by 06/30/2026 critical.
Section 45X tax credits dependency. FY26 Q1 $330-$400M Section 45X credits — meaningful contributor to gross margin. IRA / tax credit policy changes could compress.
FEOC + sourcing rules. Foreign Entity of Concern rules affect customer sourcing decisions; create complexity for FSLR + competitors. Compliance + customer adoption pace matter.
Customer concentration / utility-scale demand. Top customers (utilities, IPPs, hyperscalers) drive significant revenue. Customer-level project decisions move quarterly results.
TOPCon vs CdTe technology dynamics. Q4 IP enforcement around TOPCon — but CdTe is FSLR's primary platform. Industry technology evolution + customer preference matters.
Capacity utilization + ramp costs. Louisiana commercial production initiated + South Carolina onshoring announced + CURE conversion + perovskite all create ramp + underutilization costs. FY26 gross margin guide includes these.
Solar industry competitive dynamics. Chinese manufacturers (LONGi, JinkoSolar, JA Solar, Trina) dominate global market. FSLR's US + thin film + IP differentiation key.
Backlog conversion. $15B / 50.1GW backlog provides visibility but conversion timing depends on project schedules + permitting + interconnect.
Bottom line
First Solar FY25 is the structural compounding + capacity ramp year: revenue +24% to $5.22B, op income +15% to $1.60B, NI +18% to $1.53B, EPS $14.21 (+18%), FCF $1.19B (vs -$308M FY24), total debt -31% to $499M. Record 17.5GW shipments. Backlog 50.1GW / $15B + 23.2GW with adjusters ($600M potential 2027-2028).
FY26 guide of net sales $4.9-$5.2B + gross margin $2.5-$2.6B (~49.5%) + adj EBITDA $2.6-$2.8B + Q1 module sales 3.4-4.0GW + capex $800M-$1B + India credit facility full repayment 06/30/2026 = continued multi-year compounding. CdTe-based CURE platform + perovskite thin film + Louisiana + South Carolina onshoring all advancing technology + capacity roadmap.
The risks are real — policy + trade environment uncertainties, IP enforcement actions, tariff impacts, warranty matters, India overcapacity, vertical integration in India, Section 45X tax credit dependency, FEOC + sourcing rules, customer concentration, TOPCon vs CdTe, capacity utilization + ramp costs, competitive dynamics, backlog conversion.
But the structural thesis (US-listed leading solar module manufacturer + 17.5GW record shipments + 50.1GW backlog + $15B value + Louisiana + South Carolina onshoring + CURE platform + perovskite thin film + IP enforcement + Section 45X tax credit support + capital structure repair + multi-year technology roadmap) is intact and FY25 print confirms.
Quality solar manufacturer mid-multi-year capacity + technology + policy cycle. The 17.5GW record + 50.1GW backlog + 49.5% gross margin + $2.6-$2.8B adj EBITDA FY26 + multi-year IP + technology roadmap creates an exceptional compounding setup. Investors get exposure to US solar manufacturing + IRA Section 45X + technology innovation (CURE + perovskite) + utility-scale demand growth + IP defense + capital structure normalization. The conservative FY26 framework + Q1 starting point + India repayment + technology pipeline provides multiple paths to outperformance.
Citations
- First Solar, Inc. FY25 Form 10-K (filed February 2026, SEC EDGAR).
- FSLR Q4 2025 earnings call, 2026-02-24 — record 17.5GW FY shipments; backlog 50.1GW / $15B at year-end (+23.2GW with adjusters generating up to $600M in 2027-2028); Q4 gross bookings 2.3GW ex India + 0.1GW low-bin clearance; 1GW US utility-scale at $0.364/W; Louisiana commercial production initiated; South Carolina Series 6 finishing onshoring; CdTe-based CURE semiconductor platform initial modules delivered; CURE conversion rollout starting at Ohio Series 6 factory; perovskite thin film development line + Series 6 form factor pilot line; USPTO denied TOPCon invalidation petitions; ITC petition against foreign-headquartered manufacturers; FY26 guide (net sales $4.9-$5.2B; gross margin $2.5-$2.6B / 49.5%; SG&A $215-$225M; R&D $285-$290M; adj EBITDA $2.6-$2.8B; capex $800M-$1B); Q1 FY26 module sales 3.4-4.0GW; 45X $330-$400M; adj EBITDA $400-$500M; year-end gross/net cash $1.7B-$2.3B; India credit facility full repayment 06/30/2026.
- FSLR Q3 2025 / Q2 2025 / Q1 2025 earnings calls — supporting capacity ramp + technology + IP development (assumed in line with Q4 trajectory).
- Internal financial_statements view (consolidated annual + cash flow + capital structure).