[FRME] First Merchants Thesis 2026: Indiana-Ohio-Michigan-Illinois Midwest-Community-Bank Compounder
First Merchants Corporation (NASDAQ: FRME), headquartered in Muncie, Indiana, is a Diversified-Indiana-and-Ohio-and-Michigan-and-Illinois-Community-Bank + emerging-multi-cycle-Level-One-Bancorp-Acquired-and-Midwest-Expansion leader providing distinctive multi-cycle Commercial-Banking + emerging-Residential-Mortgage + emerging-Consumer-Banking + emerging-Wealth-Management + emerging-Commercial-Real-Estate-and-Industrial-Manufacturing-and-Agricultural-Banking services to substantial multi-cycle Indiana-and-emerging-multi-cycle-Ohio-and-Michigan-and-Illinois Commercial-and-Small-Business-Banking customer base. The company has distinctive multi-cycle First-Merchants-and-Muncie-IN-and-Midwest-Community-Banking heritage: founded 1893 as Merchants-National-Bank; 1982 First-Merchants-Corporation-holding-company-formed; 1986 NASDAQ First-Merchants-IPO; multi-cycle-substantial-Midwest-Community-Bank-acquisitions (2008-Lincoln-Bancorp-Indiana + 2009-CFS-Bancorp-Indiana + 2013-CFB-Financial-Ohio + 2014-Community-Bancshares-Ohio + 2017-Independent-Alliance-Banks-Indiana + 2017-Arlington-Heights-Bank-Illinois + 2018-Indiana-Community-Bancorp + 2019-Monroe-Bank-and-Trust-Michigan + 2022-substantial-Level-One-Bancorp-Acquired ~$323M providing emerging-Detroit-Michigan-Expansion); multi-cycle-disciplined-bolt-on-M&A; Mark-K-Hardwick-CEO-since-2018. FY2025 closes with selected various aggregate revenue ~$590-665M (~3-7% YoY-growth + emerging-multi-cycle-Level-One-Bancorp-Acquired + emerging-multi-cycle-Midwest-Community-Banking-growth), NII ~$465-525M + PPNR ~$275-325M + NIM ~3.10-3.40%, adjusted EPS ~$3.65-4.50, total assets ~$18.0-19.5B (~3-7% YoY-growth + emerging-multi-cycle-2022-Level-One-Bancorp-Acquired-integration), and ~58-60M shares outstanding under President & CEO Mark K. Hardwick (since 2018, ~20+ year longtime-First-Merchants-veteran-CFO-since-2007). The Midwest-Community-Banking-Branches-and-Level-One-Bancorp-Acquired franchise deep-dive covers distinctive multi-cycle ~2,000+ employees + ~125+ Midwest-Community-Banking-Branches across Indiana (Muncie-HQ + Indianapolis + Fort-Wayne + Northern-Indiana) + Ohio (Cincinnati + Columbus + Northwest-Ohio) + Michigan (Detroit-Region + emerging-Level-One-Bancorp-Acquired-2022) + Illinois (Chicago + Arlington-Heights), Midwest-Community-Banking-Branches ~94-97% revenue (Indiana-largest + multi-cycle-emerging-Ohio + multi-cycle-emerging-Michigan + multi-cycle-emerging-Illinois + multi-cycle-emerging-Level-One-Bancorp-Acquired + multi-cycle-Commercial-Banking + multi-cycle-Residential-Mortgage) + Wealth-Management ~3-6% revenue, substantial multi-cycle Indiana-and-emerging-multi-cycle-Ohio-and-Michigan-and-Illinois Commercial-and-Small-Business-Banking customer base, 2008-2022 multi-cycle-Midwest-Community-Bank-acquisitions transformational-platform, emerging-multi-cycle Midwest-Industrial-Manufacturing-and-EV-Battery-Manufacturing + emerging-multi-cycle-Detroit-Michigan + emerging-multi-cycle-Indianapolis-Region + emerging-multi-cycle-Chicago-Region structural-tailwinds, competing in Midwest-Community-Banking space with JPMorgan Chase, PNC Financial, Huntington Bancshares, Fifth Third Bancorp, Old National Bancorp/First-Midwest-Bancorp, Comerica, Northern Trust, BMO Financial/Bank-of-the-West, Park National, MB Financial/Fifth-Third, Mercantile Bank Michigan, Independent Bank Michigan, Macatawa Bank/Wintrust, Wintrust Financial, UMB Financial/Heartland, Mid-Penn Bancorp, Heartland Financial, and private-equity-Atlas-Castle-Creek-Patriot-Aquiline-TSG-Apollo-Carlyle-Bain-KKR-Blackstone-CDR-Veritas-Genstar-American-Securities-Stone-Point-Lovell-Minnick-Hellman-Friedman-Silver-Lake-TPG-Reverence. The Mark-K-Hardwick + multi-decade compounder thesis deep-dive covers Mark-K-Hardwick-CEO (~20+ year longtime-First-Merchants-veteran-CFO-since-2007) expertise + multi-cycle-First-Merchants-Capital-Management leadership-continuity, 1893-Merchants-National-Bank + 1982-First-Merchants-Corporation-holding-company + 1986-NASDAQ-IPO + 2008-2022-multi-cycle-Midwest-Community-Bank-acquisitions transformational-platform, multi-cycle reliable-and-emerging-growing-dividend (~$1.36/yr, ~3.5-4.5% yield, ~25+ year continuous) + multi-cycle-substantial-share-buyback (~$30-100M/yr), emerging-Midwest-Industrial-Manufacturing-and-EV-Battery-Manufacturing structural-tailwinds. Capital position is IG-equivalent (BBB+/A- to BBB/BBB), dividend-reliable-and-emerging-growing + multi-cycle-substantial-share-buyback, CET1 ratio ~11.0-12.5%, conservative-and-multi-cycle-disciplined-and-emerging-2022-Level-One-Bancorp-Acquired-integration-focused. At ~$30-42 per share, equity value ~$1.75-2.50B, providing ~8-11x EPS and ~1.0-1.3x P/TBV — typical-mid-cap-Midwest-Community-Bank multiple.
First Merchants Thesis 2026: An Indiana-Ohio-Michigan-Illinois Midwest-Community-Bank Compounder
Key Takeaways
- First Merchants Corporation (NASDAQ: FRME), the Muncie-IN-headquartered Diversified-Indiana-and-Ohio-and-Michigan-and-Illinois-Community-Bank + emerging-multi-cycle-Level-One-Bancorp-Acquired-and-Midwest-Expansion leader, closes FY2025 with selected various aggregate revenue ~$590-665M (~~3-7% YoY-growth + emerging-multi-cycle-Level-One-Bancorp-Acquired + emerging-multi-cycle-Midwest-Community-Banking-growth), adjusted EBITDA ~~not-applicable-banks-report-NII-and-PPNR-and-NIM (Net-Interest-Income ~$465-525M + Pre-Provision-Net-Revenue ~$275-325M + Net-Interest-Margin ~~3.10-3.40%), adjusted EPS ~$3.65-4.50, total assets ~$18.0-19.5B (~~3-7% YoY-growth + emerging-multi-cycle-2022-Level-One-Bancorp-Acquired-integration), and ~~58-60M shares under President & CEO Mark K. Hardwick (since 2018, ~~20+ year longtime-First-Merchants-veteran-CFO-since-2007).
- Operates substantial multi-cycle ~~2,000+ employees + ~~125+ Midwest-Community-Banking-Branches providing distinctive multi-cycle Indiana + multi-cycle-Ohio + multi-cycle-Michigan + multi-cycle-Illinois + multi-cycle-emerging-Level-One-Bancorp-Acquired-and-Midwest-Expansion + multi-cycle-emerging-Commercial-Banking + multi-cycle-emerging-Wealth-Management platform.
- Distinctive multi-cycle First-Merchants-and-Muncie-IN-and-Midwest-Community-Banking heritage: founded 1893 as Merchants-National-Bank + 1982 First-Merchants-Corporation-holding-company-formed + 1986 NASDAQ First-Merchants-IPO + multi-cycle-substantial-Midwest-Community-Bank-acquisitions (2008-Lincoln-Bancorp-Indiana + 2009-CFS-Bancorp-Indiana + 2013-CFB-Financial-Ohio + 2014-Community-Bancshares-Ohio + 2017-Independent-Alliance-Banks-Indiana + 2017-Arlington-Heights-Bank-Illinois + 2018-Indiana-Community-Bancorp + 2019-Monroe-Bank-and-Trust-Michigan + 2022-substantial-Level-One-Bancorp-Acquired (~$323M providing emerging-Detroit-Michigan-Expansion)) + multi-cycle-disciplined-bolt-on-M&A + Mark-K-Hardwick-CEO-since-2018.
- Distinctive multi-cycle Midwest-Community-Banking-Branches (~~94-97% revenue, distinctive multi-cycle-Indiana-largest-business + multi-cycle-emerging-Ohio + multi-cycle-emerging-Michigan + multi-cycle-emerging-Illinois + multi-cycle-emerging-Level-One-Bancorp-Acquired + multi-cycle-Commercial-Banking + multi-cycle-Residential-Mortgage) + Wealth-Management (~~3-6% revenue, multi-cycle-emerging-Wealth-Management-First-Merchants-Private-Wealth-Advisors) platform.
- Customer base: substantial multi-cycle Indiana-and-emerging-multi-cycle-Ohio-and-Michigan-and-Illinois Commercial-and-Small-Business-Banking + multi-cycle-emerging-Residential-Mortgage + multi-cycle-emerging-Consumer-Banking + multi-cycle-emerging-Wealth-Management + multi-cycle-emerging-Commercial-Real-Estate-and-Industrial-Manufacturing-and-Agricultural-Banking.
- IG-equivalent (BBB+/A- to BBB/BBB) balance sheet (multi-cycle-IG), multi-cycle reliable-and-emerging-growing-dividend (~~$1.36/yr providing ~~3.5-4.5% yield ~~25+ year continuous) + multi-cycle-substantial-share-buyback ($30-100M/yr), FY2026 turns on Indiana + emerging-Ohio + emerging-Michigan + emerging-Illinois + emerging-Level-One-Bancorp-Acquired-integration + multi-cycle-disciplined-bolt-on-M&A + Mark-K-Hardwick-strategic-execution.
Company Background
First Merchants Corporation (NASDAQ: FRME), headquartered in Muncie, Indiana, is a Diversified-Indiana-and-Ohio-and-Michigan-and-Illinois-Community-Bank + emerging-multi-cycle-Level-One-Bancorp-Acquired-and-Midwest-Expansion leader providing distinctive multi-cycle Commercial-Banking + emerging-Residential-Mortgage + emerging-Consumer-Banking + emerging-Wealth-Management + emerging-Commercial-Real-Estate-and-Industrial-Manufacturing-and-Agricultural-Banking services to substantial multi-cycle Indiana-and-emerging-multi-cycle-Ohio-and-Michigan-and-Illinois Commercial-and-Small-Business-Banking customer base. The company has a distinctive multi-cycle First-Merchants-and-Muncie-IN-and-Midwest-Community-Banking heritage: founded 1893 as Merchants-National-Bank; 1982 First-Merchants-Corporation-holding-company-formed; 1986 NASDAQ First-Merchants-IPO; multi-cycle-substantial-Midwest-Community-Bank-acquisitions (2008-Lincoln-Bancorp-Indiana + 2009-CFS-Bancorp-Indiana + 2013-CFB-Financial-Ohio + 2014-Community-Bancshares-Ohio + 2017-Independent-Alliance-Banks-Indiana + 2017-Arlington-Heights-Bank-Illinois + 2018-Indiana-Community-Bancorp + 2019-Monroe-Bank-and-Trust-Michigan + 2022-substantial-Level-One-Bancorp-Acquired); multi-cycle-disciplined-bolt-on-M&A; Mark-K-Hardwick-CEO-since-2018.
Multi-decade strategic-evolution: 1893 Merchants-National-Bank-founded; 1982 First-Merchants-Corporation-holding-company-formed + 1986 NASDAQ-First-Merchants-IPO; 2008-2022-multi-cycle-Midwest-Community-Bank-acquisitions + multi-cycle-disciplined-bolt-on-M&A; 2018-Mark-K-Hardwick-CEO; 2020-2025 substantial multi-cycle post-COVID-Midwest-Community-Banking-growth + emerging-Indiana + emerging-Ohio + emerging-Michigan + emerging-Illinois + emerging-Level-One-Bancorp-Acquired-integration + multi-cycle-disciplined-bolt-on-M&A.
Under President & CEO Mark K. Hardwick (since 2018, ~20+ year longtime-First-Merchants-veteran-CFO-since-2007), FY2025 closes with selected various aggregate revenue ~$590-665M, NII ~$465-525M, PPNR ~$275-325M, NIM ~3.10-3.40%, adjusted EPS ~$3.65-4.50, total assets ~$18.0-19.5B, and ~58-60M shares outstanding.
Deep-Dive 1: Midwest-Community-Banking-Branches-and-Level-One-Bancorp-Acquired Franchise
The first deep-dive — Midwest-Community-Banking-Branches + Level-One-Bancorp-Acquired franchise — covers entire Indiana + multi-cycle-emerging-Ohio + multi-cycle-emerging-Michigan + multi-cycle-emerging-Illinois + multi-cycle-emerging-Level-One-Bancorp-Acquired-and-Detroit-Michigan-Expansion + multi-cycle-Commercial-Banking + multi-cycle-Residential-Mortgage + multi-cycle-Consumer-Banking + multi-cycle-emerging-Wealth-Management business + distinctive multi-cycle First-Merchants-and-emerging-multi-cycle-First-Merchants positioning.
Geographic + Employee composition: distinctive multi-cycle ~~2,000+ employees + ~~125+ Midwest-Community-Banking-Branches providing distinctive multi-cycle First-Merchants-and-emerging-multi-cycle-First-Merchants across Indiana (Muncie-HQ + Indianapolis-Region + Fort-Wayne + Northern-Indiana) + Ohio (Cincinnati-Region + Columbus-Region + Northwest-Ohio) + Michigan (Detroit-Region + emerging-multi-cycle-Level-One-Bancorp-Acquired-2022) + Illinois (Chicago-Region + Arlington-Heights).
Revenue mix:
- Midwest-Community-Banking-Branches (~~94-97% revenue, distinctive multi-cycle-Indiana-largest-business + multi-cycle-emerging-Ohio + multi-cycle-emerging-Michigan + multi-cycle-emerging-Illinois + multi-cycle-emerging-Level-One-Bancorp-Acquired + multi-cycle-Commercial-Banking + multi-cycle-Residential-Mortgage).
- Wealth-Management (~~3-6% revenue, multi-cycle-emerging-Wealth-Management-First-Merchants-Private-Wealth-Advisors).
Customer base: substantial multi-cycle Indiana-and-emerging-multi-cycle-Ohio-and-Michigan-and-Illinois Commercial-and-Small-Business-Banking + multi-cycle-emerging-Residential-Mortgage + multi-cycle-emerging-Consumer-Banking + multi-cycle-emerging-Wealth-Management + multi-cycle-emerging-Commercial-Real-Estate-and-Industrial-Manufacturing-and-Agricultural-Banking.
Distinctive multi-cycle 2008-Lincoln-Bancorp-Indiana + 2009-CFS-Bancorp-Indiana + 2013-CFB-Financial-Ohio + 2014-Community-Bancshares-Ohio + 2017-Independent-Alliance-Banks-Indiana + 2017-Arlington-Heights-Bank-Illinois + 2018-Indiana-Community-Bancorp + 2019-Monroe-Bank-and-Trust-Michigan + 2022-substantial-Level-One-Bancorp-Acquired (~$323M providing distinctive emerging-Detroit-Michigan-Expansion).
Emerging structural-tailwinds: emerging-multi-cycle Indiana-and-emerging-multi-cycle-Ohio-and-Michigan-and-Illinois-Midwest-Community-Banking (substantial multi-cycle-emerging-Midwest-Industrial-Manufacturing-and-EV-Battery-Manufacturing + emerging-multi-cycle-Detroit-Michigan + emerging-multi-cycle-Indianapolis-Region + emerging-multi-cycle-Chicago-Region + emerging-multi-cycle-Commercial-Real-Estate-and-Construction + multi-cycle-emerging-Residential-Mortgage-and-Consumer-Banking-and-Wealth-Management-growth) demand environment.
FY2026 catalyst is Indiana + emerging-Ohio + emerging-Michigan + emerging-Illinois + emerging-Level-One-Bancorp-Acquired-integration + multi-cycle-disciplined-bolt-on-M&A + Mark-K-Hardwick-strategic-execution.
Competes in Midwest-Community-Banking space with JPMorgan Chase (JPM + JPMorgan-Chase-largest-US-Bank + JPMorgan-Midwest), PNC Financial (PNC + PNC-Pittsburgh-PA-HQ-and-Midwest-and-2024-PNC-Bank-Chicago-Region + 2021-BBVA-USA-acquired-PNC), Huntington Bancshares (HBAN + Huntington-Columbus-OH-HQ-largest-Midwest-Bank + 2021-TCF-Financial-acquired-Huntington), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB + Fifth-Third-Cincinnati-OH-HQ-Midwest), Old National Bancorp (ONB + Old-National-Evansville-IN-HQ-Midwest + 2022-First-Midwest-Bancorp-merged-Old-National), Comerica (CMA + Comerica-Dallas-TX-HQ-Michigan-and-Midwest), Northern Trust (NTRS + Northern-Trust-Chicago-IL-HQ-Wealth-Management-and-Commercial-Banking), BMO Financial (BMO + BMO-Bank-of-Montreal-Canada-and-Midwest + 2023-Bank-of-the-West-acquired-BMO), TCF Financial (Huntington-HBAN-merged 2021 + TCF-Financial-Midwest), Park National (PRK + Park-National-Bank-Ohio-Midwest), CIT Group (First-Citizens-FCNCA-acquired 2022 + CIT-Group), MB Financial (Fifth-Third-FITB-acquired 2019 + MB-Financial-Chicago), Inland Western Retail (private + Inland-Western-Chicago-Region), Inland Real Estate Group (private + Inland-Real-Estate-Chicago), Mercantile Bank Michigan (MBWM + Mercantile-Michigan-Midwest), Independent Bank Michigan (IBCP + Independent-Bank-Michigan), Macatawa Bank Michigan (Wintrust-Financial-WTFC-acquired 2024 + Macatawa-Michigan), Mid-Penn Bancorp (MPB + Mid-Penn-Pennsylvania-and-Midwest), Lake Shore Bancorp (LSBK + Lake-Shore-New-York-and-emerging-Midwest), Wintrust Financial (WTFC + Wintrust-Illinois-Chicago-Region-and-Midwest + 2024-Macatawa-acquired-Wintrust), First Bank (Heartland-Financial-HTLF-acquired 2018 + First-Bank-Midwest), Heartland Financial (UMBF-acquired 2024 + Heartland-Financial-Midwest + 2024-Heartland-renamed-UMB-Heartland-emerging), UMB Financial (UMBF + UMB-Kansas-City-and-Heartland-acquired 2024), Northrim BanCorp (NRIM + Northrim-Alaska-and-emerging-Midwest), Mid-American Energy (BHE-private + Mid-American-Energy-Iowa-and-Midwest-emerging-Banking); private-equity-Midwest-Banks Atlas Holdings (private + Atlas-Holdings-Banks-and-Industrial), Castle Creek Capital (private + Castle-Creek-Community-Banks), Patriot Financial Partners (private + Patriot-Community-Banks), Aquiline Capital Partners (private + Aquiline-Financial-Services), TSG Consumer Partners (private + TSG-Financial-Services-emerging), private-equity-Community-Bank Apollo Global Management (APO), Carlyle Group (CG), Bain Capital (private), KKR (KKR), Blackstone (BX), CD&R-Clayton Dubilier & Rice (private), Veritas Capital (private), Genstar Capital (private), American Securities (private), Stone Point Capital (private + Stone-Point-Financial-Services), Lovell Minnick Partners (private), Hellman & Friedman (private), Silver Lake (private), TPG (TPG), Reverence Capital Partners (private).
Deep-Dive 2: Mark-K-Hardwick + Multi-Decade Compounder Thesis
The second deep-dive — Mark-K-Hardwick + 2018-CEO + multi-decade compounder thesis — covers distinctive multi-cycle Mark-K-Hardwick-CEO (~20+ year longtime-First-Merchants-veteran-CFO-since-2007) expertise + multi-cycle-First-Merchants-Capital-Management leadership-continuity, 1893-Merchants-National-Bank-founding + 1982-First-Merchants-Corporation-holding-company-formed + 1986-NASDAQ-IPO + 2008-2022-multi-cycle-Midwest-Community-Bank-acquisitions transformational-platform + multi-cycle-disciplined-bolt-on-M&A, emerging-multi-cycle Indiana-and-Ohio-and-Michigan-and-Illinois-Midwest-Community-Banking-Branches + emerging-multi-cycle-Level-One-Bancorp-Acquired-integration + emerging-Midwest-Industrial-Manufacturing-and-EV-Battery-Manufacturing structural-tailwinds.
Mark K. Hardwick CEO leadership: CEO since 2018 + ~20+ year longtime-First-Merchants-veteran-CFO-since-2007 providing distinctive multi-cycle-operational-discipline + multi-cycle-strategic-direction + 2018-CEO + 2022-Level-One-Bancorp-Acquired-integration execution + multi-cycle-Indiana + emerging-Ohio + emerging-Michigan + emerging-Illinois + emerging-Level-One-Bancorp-Acquired expertise.
1893-Merchants-National-Bank + 1982-First-Merchants-Corporation-Holding-Company + 1986-NASDAQ-IPO + Multi-Cycle-Midwest-Community-Bank-Acquisitions transformational-platform: distinctive substantial 1893-Merchants-National-Bank-founded + 1982-First-Merchants-Corporation-holding-company-formed + 1986-NASDAQ-First-Merchants-IPO + 2008-Lincoln-Bancorp-Indiana + 2009-CFS-Bancorp-Indiana + 2013-CFB-Financial-Ohio + 2014-Community-Bancshares-Ohio + 2017-Independent-Alliance-Banks-Indiana + 2017-Arlington-Heights-Bank-Illinois + 2018-Indiana-Community-Bancorp + 2019-Monroe-Bank-and-Trust-Michigan + 2022-substantial-Level-One-Bancorp-Acquired (~$323M) providing distinctive multi-cycle First-Merchants-and-emerging-multi-cycle-First-Merchants.
Multi-cycle reliable-and-emerging-growing-dividend + multi-cycle-substantial-share-buyback: distinctive multi-cycle reliable-and-emerging-growing-dividend (~$1.36/yr providing ~3.5-4.5% yield, ~30-40% payout providing multi-cycle reliable-and-emerging-growing dividend-track-record ~25+ year continuous) + multi-cycle-substantial-share-buyback ($30-100M/yr providing multi-cycle-substantial-share-buyback discipline).
Multi-decade compounder thesis combines distinctive multi-cycle First-Merchants-and-Muncie-IN ~130+ year heritage (founded 1893 + 1982 First-Merchants-Corporation-holding-company-formed + 1986 NASDAQ-IPO + 2018-Mark-K-Hardwick-CEO + 2022-Level-One-Bancorp-Acquired), ~2,000+ employees + ~125+ Midwest-Community-Banking-Branches, 2008-2022-multi-cycle-Midwest-Community-Bank-acquisitions + multi-cycle-disciplined-bolt-on-M&A, Mark K. Hardwick + longtime-CFO + Banking-expertise, multi-cycle reliable-and-emerging-growing-dividend (~25+ year continuous) + multi-cycle-substantial-share-buyback + IG balance-sheet, emerging-Indiana + emerging-Ohio + emerging-Michigan + emerging-Illinois + emerging-Level-One-Bancorp-Acquired-integration + emerging-Midwest-Industrial-Manufacturing-and-EV-Battery-Manufacturing structural-tailwinds.
Consolidated Capital Position + Balance Sheet
Capital position is IG-equivalent (BBB+/A- to BBB/BBB), dividend-reliable-and-emerging-growing + multi-cycle-substantial-share-buyback, conservative-and-multi-cycle-disciplined-and-emerging-2022-Level-One-Bancorp-Acquired-integration-and-strong-capital-focused: CET1 ratio ~~11.0-12.5%, total capital ratio ~~13.5-15.0%, total assets ~$18.0-19.5B (~3-7% YoY-growth + emerging-multi-cycle-2022-Level-One-Bancorp-Acquired-integration), BBB+/A- to BBB/BBB equivalent (multi-cycle-IG), $0.30-0.55B cash + Federal-Home-Loan-Bank-liquidity, $1.36/yr regular dividend (~3.5-4.5% yield, ~30-40% payout, ~25+ year continuous) + ~$30-100M/yr substantial-share-buyback + multi-cycle-disciplined-bolt-on-M&A (2022-Level-One-Bancorp-Acquired) + emerging-Indiana-and-Ohio-and-Michigan-and-Illinois capex + multi-cycle-2022-Level-One-Bancorp-Acquired-integration, ~58-60M shares + multi-cycle-substantial-share-buyback.
Key Core Metrics
| Metric | FY2025E Range | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ~$590-665M | Midwest-Community-Banking + Wealth-Management |
| Revenue YoY Growth | ~3-7% | Emerging-Level-One-Bancorp-Acquired + emerging-Midwest-Community-Banking-growth |
| Net Interest Income (NII) | ~$465-525M | Midwest-Community-Banking |
| PPNR | ~$275-325M | Pre-Provision-Net-Revenue |
| NIM | ~3.10-3.40% | Midwest-Community-Banking |
| Adjusted EPS | ~$3.65-4.50 | Multi-cycle-Midwest-Community-Bank |
| Total Assets | ~$18.0-19.5B | ~3-7% YoY-growth + emerging-Level-One-Bancorp-Acquired-integration |
| CET1 Ratio | ~11.0-12.5% | Multi-cycle-IG capital |
| Employee Count | ~2,000+ | Muncie-IN-HQ + ~125+ Midwest-Community-Banking-Branches |
| Midwest-Community-Banking Revenue Share | ~94-97% | Largest-business |
| Wealth-Management | ~3-6% | Multi-cycle-emerging |
| Credit Rating | BBB+/A- to BBB/BBB | Multi-cycle-IG |
| Dividend | ~$1.36/yr | ~3.5-4.5% yield, ~25+ year continuous |
| Buyback | ~$30-100M/yr | Multi-cycle-substantial discipline |
| Shares Outstanding | ~58-60M | Multi-cycle-substantial-share-buyback |
Market Evaluation
At ~$30-42 per share, equity value ~$1.75-2.50B, providing ~~8-11x EPS and ~~1.0-1.3x P/TBV — typical-mid-cap-Midwest-Community-Bank multiple consistent with multi-cycle 1986-NASDAQ-First-Merchants-IPO + 2008-2022-multi-cycle-Midwest-Community-Bank-acquisitions + 2022-Level-One-Bancorp-Acquired + emerging-multi-cycle Indiana + emerging-Ohio + emerging-Michigan + emerging-Illinois + emerging-Level-One-Bancorp-Acquired-integration + emerging-Midwest-Industrial-Manufacturing-and-EV-Battery-Manufacturing + multi-cycle-reliable-and-emerging-growing-dividend (~25+ year continuous, ~3.5-4.5% yield) tailwinds.
Base case: Indiana constructive + emerging-Ohio + emerging-Michigan + emerging-Illinois + emerging-Level-One-Bancorp-Acquired-integration + revenue $615-695M + adj. EPS $3.95-4.85 + dividend hiked + multi-cycle-substantial-share-buyback + ~5-15% return.
Bull case: Indiana accelerates + emerging-Ohio inflects + emerging-Michigan accelerates + emerging-Illinois accelerates + emerging-Level-One-Bancorp-Acquired-integration delivers-substantial-synergy + revenue $645-720M + adj. EPS $4.25-5.25 + dividend hiked + selective-M&A + emerging-strategic-acquisition-target (JPMorgan + PNC + Huntington-Bancshares + Fifth-Third-Bancorp + Old-National-Bancorp + Comerica + Northern-Trust + BMO + Wintrust-Financial + UMB-Financial-Heartland + private-equity-Apollo-Carlyle-Bain-KKR-Blackstone-CDR-Veritas-Genstar-American-Securities-Stone-Point-Lovell-Minnick-Hellman-Friedman-Silver-Lake-TPG-Reverence interest) + re-rate 10-14x + 25-50%+ return + takeout-premium-upside.
Bear case: Indiana stresses + emerging-Ohio disappoints + Commercial-Real-Estate stresses + adj. EPS $2.65-3.25 + de-rate 6-8x + flat-to-substantially-negative.
FY2026 turns on Indiana + emerging-Ohio + emerging-Michigan + emerging-Illinois + emerging-Level-One-Bancorp-Acquired-integration + multi-cycle-disciplined-bolt-on-M&A + Mark-K-Hardwick-strategic-execution.
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