Key Takeaways
Fox Corporation's fiscal year 2025 (ended June 30, 2025) was the first full fiscal year following the historic $787.5M Dominion Voting Systems defamation settlement and Tucker Carlson's departure, and it demonstrated the structural resilience of live news and sports content in the streaming era: Fox News retained its 25-year streak as the most-watched cable news network in primetime, and Fox Sports' NFL and college football rights continue to generate the most valuable live broadcast audiences in American television. Total revenue reached approximately $15.4B, driven by affiliate fee growth, political advertising tailwinds from the 2024 election cycle, and Super Bowl LVII advertising (broadcast on Fox in February 2025). Adjusted EBITDA reached approximately $3.3B, and adjusted EPS reached approximately $4.80-5.00. Fox launched its Tubi streaming platform as a primary strategic asset, with Tubi reaching approximately 80M+ monthly active users on advertising-supported free streaming — positioning Fox as the only major media company with scale in FAST (Free Ad-Supported Streaming TV) rather than competing in the subscribed streaming market against Netflix, Disney+, and others. The falsification condition is whether Tubi's ad revenue model proves durable against declining digital ad rates, and whether Fox News' primetime dominance survives the post-Tucker audience rebalancing.
Fox Corporation was created as a separate public company in March 2019 when Disney acquired the entertainment assets of Twenty-First Century Fox, leaving Fox with four core assets: Fox News Channel, Fox Business Network, the Fox broadcast network, the Fox Sports properties (including FS1, FS2, Big Ten Network, and the Tubi streaming platform), and select owned-and-operated television stations. CEO Lachlan Murdoch, the elder son of Rupert Murdoch, has governed Fox since its creation as a standalone entity. The company operates with a deliberately narrow asset footprint — no scripted entertainment studio, no global streaming service competing with Netflix, no theme parks — focusing entirely on live news and live sports where linear television audiences remain large and advertising rates command premiums over time-shifted or on-demand content.
The strategic thesis at Fox's creation was that live content is the last unassailable fortress of traditional television: news events and sports games are consumed in real-time, cannot be DVR-delayed, and generate appointment viewing that supports premium advertiser CPMs and sustains affiliate fee negotiations with cable and satellite operators. This thesis has been substantially validated over the FY2019-FY2025 period: Fox News remained the most-watched cable network in primetime despite the Carlson departure, the NFL remained the most-watched programming in US television, and Fox's affiliate fee revenue continued growing even as overall cable subscribers declined. The acquisition of Tubi in 2020 for $440M was the strategic bet on the complementary opportunity: FAST platforms reaching cord-cutters and younger demographics that do not subscribe to cable, monetized through advertising rather than subscriptions.
Business Structure
Fox reports three primary segments.
Cable Network Programming (~$7.4B revenue, ~48% of FY2025 total): Fox News Channel and Fox Business Network, monetized through affiliate fees paid by cable/satellite distributors (approximately 65-70% of segment revenue) and advertising (30-35%). Fox News generates approximately $2.2B in annual affiliate fees from approximately 67M subscriber households at an average affiliate rate approaching $2.00/subscriber/month — among the highest per-subscriber rates in cable. Advertising revenue at Fox News benefits disproportionately from political cycles; the 2024 presidential election year drove political advertising well above the off-cycle baseline. Adjusted segment EBITDA margin is approximately 40-45%.
Television (~$7.2B revenue, ~47%): The Fox broadcast network, Fox Sports (Super Bowl, NFL Thursday Night Football, college football), and the Tubi streaming platform, plus owned-and-operated local television stations in major markets. The broadcast network's advertising model depends on live sports rights: NFL games on Fox, college football (Big 12 and Pac-12 successors), NASCAR, and MLB playoffs. Tubi is reported within this segment; Tubi's advertising revenue was approximately $1.0-1.2B in FY2025, growing rapidly as active users and viewing hours expand.
Other (~$0.8B): Miscellaneous corporate and international.
Key Core Metrics Performance
Revenue and Affiliate Fees (FY2021–FY2025)
Total revenue has been relatively flat since Fox's creation due to the absence of high-growth businesses (no streaming subscription growth) offset by affiliate fee escalators and cyclical political advertising.
| Fiscal Year | Total Revenue | Affiliate Fees | Advertising Revenue | Adj. EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 (ended Jun 2021) | $12.9B | $6.8B | $5.0B | $3.0B |
| FY2022 (ended Jun 2022) | $13.9B | $7.0B | $5.6B | $3.2B |
| FY2023 (ended Jun 2023) | $14.9B | $7.3B | $5.9B | $2.8B* |
| FY2024 (ended Jun 2024) | $14.7B | $7.5B | $5.5B | $3.1B |
| FY2025 (ended Jun 2025) | ~$15.4B | ~$7.7B | ~$6.1B | ~$3.3B |
*FY2023 EBITDA reflects Dominion settlement accrual impact and one-time charges.
Affiliate fees have grown at approximately 2-4% annually through rate escalators on existing contracts, partially offset by declining cable subscriber counts (cord-cutting). Advertising revenue is more cyclical, with FY2025 benefiting from Super Bowl broadcast rights and the presidential election political ad surge.
Tubi Monthly Active Users and Revenue (FY2022–FY2025)
Tubi is Fox's growth asset, though it remains unprofitable on a standalone basis as content and technology investment exceeds advertising revenue.
| Fiscal Year | Tubi MAUs | Tubi Revenue | Tubi Total Viewing Hours |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2022 | ~50M | ~$400M | ~5B hours |
| FY2023 | ~64M | ~$650M | ~8B hours |
| FY2024 | ~74M | ~$900M | ~10B hours |
| FY2025 | ~84M | ~$1.1B | ~12B hours |
Tubi's trajectory positions it as the largest FAST platform in the US by active users, ahead of Pluto TV (Paramount), Peacock Free (NBCU), and Xumo (Comcast). At approximately $1.1B in revenue growing 20%+ annually, Tubi is approaching a scale where it could become a meaningful standalone earnings contributor within the next two to three years.
Adjusted EPS (FY2021–FY2025)
| Fiscal Year | Adjusted EPS | Share Count (approx.) |
|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | $3.38 | 590M |
| FY2022 | $3.98 | 565M |
| FY2023 | $3.28* | 555M |
| FY2024 | $4.41 | 540M |
| FY2025 | ~$4.90 | ~525M |
*FY2023 adjusted EPS reflects Dominion settlement charges.
EPS growth has been supported by consistent share buybacks — Fox has repurchased approximately $3-4B in shares since FY2019 at an average of approximately 5-7% of float per year.
Free Cash Flow (FY2021–FY2025)
| Fiscal Year | Free Cash Flow |
|---|---|
| FY2021 | $1.8B |
| FY2022 | $2.0B |
| FY2023 | $0.9B* |
| FY2024 | $2.2B |
| FY2025 | ~$2.4B |
*FY2023 FCF reflects Dominion cash payment of $787.5M.
Market Evaluation
Fox trades at approximately 10-12x forward adjusted earnings — a persistent discount to entertainment peers like Comcast and Warner Bros. Discovery — reflecting investor concerns about long-term cable subscriber decline, the lack of a direct-to-consumer subscription streaming strategy, and the binary risk from additional defamation litigation (a second lawsuit from Smartmatic is ongoing). The bull case is that live news and live sports are the last defensible moats in television, and that Fox's asset portfolio is uniquely concentrated in these categories with minimal exposure to the commoditizing scripted content market. Affiliate fee revenue — approximately $7.7B annually, growing 2-4% per year, highly recurring — provides earnings floor stability that subscription streaming businesses lack. Tubi's growth represents the optionality layer: if FAST advertising scales to a $2B+ annual revenue business by FY2028, it adds meaningful incremental earnings power that current market expectations do not price.
Tubi Strategy and the FAST Platform Opportunity
Fox's strategic differentiation from every other major media company is its commitment to free, ad-supported streaming rather than subscription video. When Rupert and Lachlan Murdoch decided in 2019 not to build a competing Netflix-style service — choosing instead to focus on live linear and acquire Tubi as the digital complement — they made a contrarian bet that the subscription streaming market would face economics challenges (content cost inflation, subscriber growth limits, churn) while FAST advertising would benefit from cord-cutting driving streaming viewing hours.
This bet has partially validated over FY2020-FY2025: Netflix's subscriber growth slowed, Disney+ lost billions, and Peacock and Paramount+ required massive content investment subsidies. Tubi, by contrast, requires no premium content investment — its catalog is predominantly library films and TV series licensed at low cost, supplemented by Fox Sports highlights and Fox News clips — and its advertising model means revenue scales with viewer engagement rather than requiring paid subscriber acquisition. At 84M monthly active users and $1.1B in annual advertising revenue, Tubi is demonstrating that the FAST model can achieve scale.
The key question is advertising CPM sustainability. Tubi's ad revenue per thousand views (CPM) is structurally lower than premium live sports and news because catalog content attracts less premium-paying advertisers. If digital advertising rates compress further — driven by Google's dominance in search and social platforms' competition for brand budgets — Tubi's revenue growth may decelerate. Management is investing in original programming (Fox Entertainment co-productions) and sports highlights to attract higher-CPM advertisers, but the content investment required to raise CPMs will pressure near-term margins.