FirstEnergy 2025-26: $36B Capex Plan, Data Center +30% Pipeline
FY25 revenue $15.09B (+12%); op income $2.83B (+19%); core EPS $2.55 (+7.6%); GAAP EPS $1.76. $5.6B capex (+25% YoY). Distribution reliability +10%. $36B 5-year plan (+30% vs prior). Data center pipeline 11.1GW (vs 6.1GW Feb); contracted 2.7GW (vs 2.2GW Feb). FY26-30 LT EPS growth 6-8% (top end). 10% rate base growth through 2030. Bills 19% below in-state peers.
Key takeaways
- Data center pipeline +82% mid-year. Started Feb at 6.1GW; H1 reached 11.1GW (+82%). Contracted load +25% to 2.7GW (vs 2.2GW Feb). System peak load expected +15GW by 2035. The "Pennsylvania + Ohio + Maryland + WV utility hub" thesis materializing at scale.
- 5-year capex plan $36B (+30% from prior $28B plan). Driven by data center load + distribution modernization + transmission. Transmission CapEx alone growing $2.4B → $3.4B annual; transmission rate base CAGR up to 18% through 2030.
- Core EPS $2.55 FY25 above midpoint of revised $2.50-$2.56 guide. +7.6% YoY. Confirms upper-half of long-term 6-8% growth target. FY26-30 plan top end of 6-8%.
- Bills 19% below in-state peers. Key affordability differentiator. Despite massive capex plan, requested rate increases at or below annual inflation. Customer demand growth +2% (5% from industrials).
- Pennsylvania transmission expansion is the structural asset. ValleyLink JV ($3B PJM-approved); 18% transmission rate base CAGR; FET dilution lapped in FY25. Transmission rate base to more than double through 2030.
Business
FirstEnergy Corp. is a Mid-Atlantic regulated utility serving 6M customers across 5 states (Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland, West Virginia). Three reporting segments:
- Distribution (~55% of regulated rate base). 10 distribution utilities serving 6M customers. Pennsylvania the largest (~35% of rate base). Customer demand +2% (5% from industrials). Reliability +10% improvement system-wide.
- Integrated Operations (~25%). Ohio + WV regulated generation + distribution + transmission. WV IRP filed: 70MW utility scale solar 2028 + 1.2GW dispatchable gas combined cycle by 2031 = 35% portfolio increase.
- Stand-alone Transmission (
20%). FET (FirstEnergy Transmission). 9% rate base growth FY25. Dilution from minority stake sale lapping. ValleyLink JV ($3B PJM-approved). Annual transmission CapEx $2.4B → $3.4B.
Strategic moves FY25:
- $36B 5-year capital plan announced (+30% vs prior $28B)
- Data center pipeline +82% to 11.1GW
- Maryland + WV + Ohio base rate cases planned
- ValleyLink JV PJM approval + FERC filing
- 4.7% dividend raise to $0.445/quarter ($1.78 annualized)
- Meta announced Toledo data center
- 15 large load study requests Q1
FY25 financial performance
| Metric (FY) | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($B) | 12.46 | 12.87 | 13.47 | 15.09 |
| Revenue YoY | n/a | +3% | +5% | +12% |
| Op income ($B) | 1.91 | 2.27 | 2.38 | 2.83 |
| Op margin | 15.3% | 17.6% | 17.6% | 18.8% |
| Net income ($B) | 0.41 | 1.10 | 0.98 | 1.02 |
| Diluted EPS ($) | 0.71 | 1.92 | 1.70 | 1.76 |
| Core EPS ($) | n/a | n/a | ~2.37 | 2.55 |
| FCF ($B) | -0.07 | -1.97 | -1.14 | -1.01 |
| Capex ($B) | -2.76 | -3.36 | -4.03 | -4.71 |
| Total debt ($B) | 21.66 | 24.91 | 24.27 | 27.07 |
| Dividends ($M) | -891 | -906 | -970 | -1,016 |
The earnings progression: revenue +12% (above-typical regulated utility growth — reflects transmission rate growth + load growth + rate cases). Op income +19%. Core EPS +7.6% in line with 6-8% LT target. Negative FCF normal for capex-heavy utility funded by debt + equity.
Note: Total debt $27.07B (+$2.8B YoY) reflects $5.6B capex deployment.
Capital allocation
- Capex: $-4.71B FY25 (~31% of revenue). $5.6B per FY guidance. 5-year plan $36B.
- Dividends: $-1.02B FY25 (+5% YoY). $1.78 annual / $0.445 quarterly (+4.7% raise).
- Buybacks: $0 (utility model).
- Debt: $27.07B (+$2.8B YoY).
- Equity: No incremental equity needs in $28B plan (Q2 statement). $36B plan implications unclear.
FY26 outlook (per Q4 2025 call, 2026-02-18)
| FY26 framework | Detail |
|---|---|
| Core EPS growth | Top end of 6-8% (FY26-30) |
| Capex 5-year plan | $36B (+30% vs prior $28B) |
| Transmission CapEx (5-yr, 2026-30) | +30% vs prior plan |
| Transmission rate base CAGR | Up to 18% through 2030 |
| Rate base growth | 10% through 2030 |
| Consolidated ROE target | 9.5% to 10% |
| Customer demand growth | 2% (5% industrials) |
The 10% rate base CAGR + 6-8% EPS growth structurally compounds. Industrial load +5% reflects data center contracts.
Key risks
- Regulatory rate case outcomes. Multiple state rate cases planned (MD, WV, OH); ALJ recommendations + base rate decisions affect EPS trajectory.
- PJM capacity auction construct. Q2 flagged as not providing incentives for dispatchable generation in deregulated states. Impact on West Virginia IRP execution.
- Equity issuance + dilution. $36B capex plan vs $28B prior (Q2 said no equity needed). Equity needs for incremental $8B unclear.
- Data center contract finalization. 11.1GW pipeline / 2.7GW contracted — execution timing matters.
- Tariff + supply chain. Steel + transformer + cable pricing. Q1 noted tariff exposure manageable on labor-heavy O&M.
- Generation costs in deregulated states. Generation component driving customer bill increases; mitigation efforts ongoing.
Bottom line
FE FY25 is the data center capex super-cycle play: $36B 5-year plan (+30%), pipeline 11.1GW data center (+82% mid-year), 18% transmission rate base CAGR, 6-8% LT EPS growth (top end). Core EPS $2.55 above guide; bills 19% below peers (affordability cushion). FY26-30 sets up best-in-class regulated utility compounding for the AI infra cycle. Risks are regulatory + equity needs + PJM construct. Quality regulated utility with highest data center optionality among Mid-Atlantic peers.
Citations
- FirstEnergy Corp. FY25 Form 10-K (filed February 2026, SEC EDGAR).
- FE Q4 2025 earnings call, 2026-02-18 — core EPS $2.55 (+7.6% YoY); $36B 5-year capex plan (+30% vs prior); 10% rate base growth + 6-8% LT EPS growth (top end); MD + WV + OH base rate cases.
- FE Q3 2025 earnings call, 2025-10-23 — capex raised to $5.5B FY25 (+10%); FY guide $2.50-$2.56 narrowed; data center pipeline +30% since Feb; 11.1GW long-term pipeline.
- FE Q2 2025 earnings call, 2025-07-31 — H1 core EPS +19% YoY; data center pipeline +82% to 11.1GW; transmission CapEx $2.4B → $3.4B; FY guide $2.40-$2.60.
- FE Q1 2025 earnings call, 2025-04-24 — 4.7% dividend raise to $0.445/quarter; ValleyLink $3B JV PJM approved; Meta Toledo data center.
- Internal financial_statements view (consolidated annual + cash flow + capital structure).