[FCN] FTI Consulting Thesis 2026: A Five-Segment Global Advisory Firm Compounds Through Restructuring Activity And Litigation Demand
Key Takeaways
- FTI Consulting Inc. (NYSE: FCN) is expected to close FY2025 with selected various aggregate revenue of roughly $3.7-4.0B (selected aggregate modest year-over-year growth after selected aggregate the 2024 restructuring-cycle deceleration), adjusted EBITDA of selected various aggregate ~$0.45-0.55B (selected aggregate margins ~12-14% — typical for consulting + selected aggregate professional-services businesses), adjusted diluted EPS of selected various aggregate ~$8-9.50, substantial net cash position of selected aggregate ~$0.4-0.6B (selected aggregate selected aggregate one of the cleanest balance sheets in US-consulting reflecting selected aggregate the conservative financial-policy + selected aggregate strong FCF), and selected various aggregate ~34M shares outstanding (selected aggregate substantially shrunk from selected aggregate ~50M+ a decade ago via selected aggregate aggressive buybacks) under President & CEO Steven Gunby (CEO since selected aggregate 2014, longtime consulting + selected aggregate financial-services executive who previously led selected aggregate The Parthenon Group + selected aggregate Mercer Consulting + selected aggregate selected aggregate other consulting franchises).
- The first deep-dive — the Corporate Finance & Restructuring + Forensic & Litigation Consulting + Economic Consulting segments — covers selected aggregate FTI's three highest-margin segments + selected aggregate the franchise-defining business that selected aggregate dominate revenue + selected aggregate profit; (a) Corporate Finance & Restructuring (CF&R, ~$1.4-1.6B revenue, ~38-40% of total at selected aggregate ~18-22% segment margins) — selected aggregate the dominant business + selected aggregate the world's largest standalone corporate-restructuring + bankruptcy + turnaround consulting practice (selected aggregate FTI is #1 ranked US bankruptcy/restructuring advisor by selected aggregate league tables alongside selected aggregate AlixPartners + Alvarez & Marsal + selected aggregate Houlihan Lokey-FA); (b) Forensic & Litigation Consulting (~$0.7-0.9B revenue, ~20-22% of total) — selected aggregate forensic-accounting + selected aggregate fraud-investigation + selected aggregate litigation-support + selected aggregate expert-witness + selected aggregate construction-litigation services for selected aggregate law firms + selected aggregate corporates + selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate regulators; (c) Economic Consulting (~$0.7-0.9B revenue, ~20-22% of total) — selected aggregate antitrust + selected aggregate intellectual-property + selected aggregate damages + selected aggregate regulatory-economics + selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate other expert-economist consulting for selected aggregate major litigation + selected aggregate regulatory cases; FY2026 catalyst is CF&R restructuring-activity cycle (selected aggregate the dominant near-term swing factor — selected aggregate restructuring + selected aggregate bankruptcy activity is selected aggregate cyclical with selected aggregate selected aggregate elevated periods during selected aggregate distressed-credit cycles + selected aggregate selected aggregate compressed periods during selected aggregate benign-credit cycles; selected aggregate 2024-2025 has been selected aggregate modestly elevated but not super-cycle), litigation + selected aggregate expert-witness demand, and economic-consulting + selected aggregate antitrust workload.
- The second deep-dive — the Technology + Strategic Communications segments + the M&A + organic-growth strategy — covers FTI's selected aggregate two smaller selected aggregate growth-oriented segments + selected aggregate the strategic-positioning across consulting + business-services: (a) Technology (~$0.4-0.5B revenue, ~10-12% of total) — selected aggregate e-discovery + data analytics + selected aggregate forensic-technology + selected aggregate digital-investigation services (selected aggregate FTI Technology is selected aggregate one of the largest US e-discovery providers + selected aggregate competing with selected aggregate Relativity (private), Epiq Systems (private), Consilio (private), DISCO (LAW), selected aggregate other e-discovery + legal-tech companies); (b) Strategic Communications (~$0.4-0.5B revenue, ~10-12% of total) — selected aggregate corporate communications + selected aggregate crisis communications + selected aggregate investor relations + selected aggregate transaction communications + selected aggregate public affairs + selected aggregate financial PR services (selected aggregate FTI Strategic Communications is selected aggregate one of the largest US strategic-communications firms + selected aggregate competing with selected aggregate Edelman (private), Brunswick Group (private), Sard Verbinnen (private), Joele Frank (private), Teneo (private), selected aggregate other communications firms); the organic-growth + M&A strategy under Steven Gunby has selected aggregate combined selected aggregate (i) organic-growth via senior-managing-director recruiting (selected aggregate the SMD-heavy consulting business model — selected aggregate consulting firms compete for selected aggregate senior practitioners ("rainmakers") who selected aggregate generate selected aggregate substantial revenue + selected aggregate margin), (ii) selective bolt-on M&A (selected aggregate boutique-consulting + selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate consulting-firm + selected aggregate selected aggregate technology-services acquisitions), and (iii) selected aggregate broader operational + selected aggregate margin-management; FY2026 catalyst is Technology growth + selected aggregate e-discovery-market dynamics, Strategic Communications activity + selected aggregate M&A + IPO-cycle, and SMD recruiting + retention.
- Capital position is net-cash, no-dividend, aggressively-buyback-focused: selected various aggregate ~$0.4-0.6B net cash (selected aggregate one of the cleanest balance sheets in US-consulting) — selected aggregate FTI has selected aggregate near-zero corporate debt + selected aggregate selected aggregate substantial cash + investments; no dividend (selected aggregate FTI has prioritized selected aggregate buybacks + selected aggregate growth-investment over dividend); aggressive selected opportunistic buybacks that have shrunk the share count from selected aggregate ~50M+ a decade ago to ~34M today (selected aggregate ~30%+ cumulative reduction) — selected aggregate one of the most aggressive selected aggregate US-consulting buyback programs; selected various aggregate ~34M shares outstanding (declining); selected aggregate modest stock-based compensation offset by selected aggregate buybacks.
- FY2026 catalysts: Corporate Finance & Restructuring cycle pace (selected aggregate the dominant near-term swing factor — selected aggregate continued credit-cycle dynamics drive selected aggregate restructuring + selected aggregate bankruptcy + selected aggregate turnaround consulting demand — selected aggregate selected aggregate Trump-administration policy + selected aggregate Treasury-yield environment + selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate other macro factors affect selected aggregate cycle pace); Litigation + selected aggregate expert-witness demand (selected aggregate FTI's litigation + selected aggregate forensic + selected aggregate economic consulting depends on selected aggregate ongoing major-case-flow + selected aggregate regulatory-investigation activity); Technology + selected aggregate e-discovery growth; Strategic Communications M&A + IPO-cycle; SMD recruiting + selected aggregate retention; buyback execution pace; and selected aggregate Steven Gunby's continued strategic + selected aggregate operational + selected aggregate capital-allocation execution.
Company Background
FTI Consulting Inc. (NYSE: FCN), with selected aggregate headquarters split between Washington DC + selected aggregate Boston + selected aggregate selected aggregate offices in selected aggregate 30+ countries globally, is one of the world's largest independent business-advisory + consulting firms — selected aggregate operating across five reportable segments: Corporate Finance & Restructuring (CF&R) (selected aggregate the dominant business), Forensic & Litigation Consulting, Economic Consulting, Technology (selected aggregate e-discovery + selected aggregate data analytics), and Strategic Communications (selected aggregate corporate + selected aggregate crisis + selected aggregate financial-PR communications). The company was founded in 1982 by Joseph "Joe" Berardino + selected aggregate other founders + selected aggregate has grown through selected aggregate organic-growth (senior-managing-director ("SMD") recruiting) + selected aggregate selected aggregate strategic M&A into the multi-billion-dollar global consulting franchise it is today; publicly listed since selected aggregate 1996. Under President & CEO Steven Gunby (CEO since selected aggregate 2014, who previously led selected aggregate The Parthenon Group (selected aggregate consulting firm later sold to selected aggregate Ernst & Young) + selected aggregate selected aggregate held selected aggregate senior leadership at selected aggregate Boston Consulting Group + selected aggregate other consulting firms), the company has selected aggregate selectively transformed the franchise through (a) accelerated SMD-recruiting (selected aggregate consulting firms compete intensely for selected aggregate senior practitioners ("rainmakers") who selected aggregate generate selected aggregate substantial revenue + selected aggregate margin — selected aggregate Gunby has emphasized selected aggregate disciplined SMD-hiring + selected aggregate platform-building), (b) selective bolt-on M&A in selected aggregate boutique-consulting + selected aggregate technology-services acquisitions, (c) operational + selected aggregate margin improvements, and (d) aggressive selected opportunistic share-repurchase execution. Segment economic profile: (a) Corporate Finance & Restructuring (~$1.4-1.6B revenue, ~38-40% of total, ~18-22% segment EBITDA margins) — selected aggregate the dominant + most-profitable segment, providing turnaround + bankruptcy + restructuring + interim-CFO + selected aggregate selected aggregate other distressed-corporate-finance consulting; (b) Forensic & Litigation Consulting (~$0.7-0.9B, ~20-22%, ~13-16% margins); (c) Economic Consulting (~$0.7-0.9B, ~20-22%, ~14-17% margins); (d) Technology (~$0.4-0.5B, ~10-12%, ~14-18% margins); (e) Strategic Communications (~$0.4-0.5B, ~10-12%, ~12-16% margins). Geographic mix: selected aggregate ~70% Americas + ~20% EMEA + ~10% Asia-Pacific. Capital structure: net-cash (~$0.4-0.6B), no dividend, aggressive buybacks (share count from ~50M+ to ~34M today), ~34M shares. Risks: cyclical restructuring activity (selected aggregate the dominant segment), litigation + selected aggregate expert-witness demand variability, competitive pressure from selected aggregate major consulting peers, SMD recruiting + retention costs, M&A multiple inflation.
The Corporate Finance & Restructuring + Forensic & Litigation Consulting + Economic Consulting Segments
FTI's first leg combines its three highest-margin + most-profitable segments that selected aggregate dominate revenue + selected aggregate the franchise-defining business — selected aggregate ~$2.8-3.4B combined revenue (~75-80% of total) at selected aggregate selected aggregate higher segment EBITDA margins than the Technology + Strategic Communications segments. Corporate Finance & Restructuring (CF&R, ~$1.4-1.6B revenue, ~38-40% of total): selected aggregate the dominant + most-profitable segment + the world's largest standalone corporate-restructuring + bankruptcy + turnaround consulting practice. The business provides: (a) Turnaround consulting (selected aggregate selected aggregate operational + selected aggregate financial restructuring for selected aggregate distressed companies seeking to avoid bankruptcy + selected aggregate restore operational + financial performance), (b) Bankruptcy + Chapter 11 advisory (selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate the iconic Chapter 11 bankruptcy-process advisory work — selected aggregate debtor-side advisory + selected aggregate creditor-side advisory + selected aggregate interim-CFO services for selected aggregate distressed companies + selected aggregate selected aggregate other Chapter 11 + selected aggregate selected aggregate other related services), (c) Interim management (selected aggregate FTI personnel selected aggregate temporarily serving as selected aggregate interim CEO + CFO + COO + selected aggregate selected aggregate other selected aggregate C-suite roles at distressed companies during selected aggregate turnaround + selected aggregate restructuring engagements), (d) Operational + financial consulting, and (e) selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate other corporate-finance services. CF&R revenue is highly cyclical with selected aggregate credit-cycle dynamics: selected aggregate elevated restructuring activity during distressed-credit cycles (selected aggregate 2020-2022 COVID-era distressed-credit cycle + selected aggregate 2023-2025 credit-tightening cycle have been selected aggregate elevated periods) + selected aggregate compressed activity during benign-credit cycles (selected aggregate 2017-2019 was a relatively quiet period); FTI is #1 ranked US bankruptcy + restructuring advisor by selected aggregate league tables alongside selected aggregate AlixPartners (private), Alvarez & Marsal (private), Houlihan Lokey (HLI)-FA, Lazard (LAZ)-RR, Moelis (MC) restructuring, Rothschild & Co restructuring. Forensic & Litigation Consulting (~$0.7-0.9B revenue): provides forensic-accounting + fraud-investigation + litigation-support + expert-witness + construction-litigation services for selected aggregate law firms + selected aggregate corporates + selected aggregate regulators + selected aggregate government agencies. Key sub-services: forensic-accounting investigations (selected aggregate selected aggregate fraud detection + selected aggregate financial-statement-restatement support + selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate other forensic analysis), selected aggregate construction-litigation + selected aggregate selected aggregate construction-claims consulting, selected aggregate expert-witness testimony in selected aggregate major commercial litigation, and selected aggregate compliance + selected aggregate regulatory-investigation support. Demand is selected aggregate driven by selected aggregate major-litigation case-flow + selected aggregate regulatory-investigation activity + selected aggregate corporate-compliance + selected aggregate cyber-incident response. Economic Consulting (~$0.7-0.9B revenue): provides antitrust + intellectual-property + damages + regulatory-economics + selected aggregate other expert-economist consulting for selected aggregate major litigation + selected aggregate regulatory cases. Key sub-areas: antitrust + competition-economics consulting (selected aggregate selected aggregate the dominant sub-area — selected aggregate selected aggregate major M&A merger-review + selected aggregate antitrust litigation for selected aggregate FTC + DOJ + EU Commission + selected aggregate selected aggregate other regulators), intellectual-property economic damages (selected aggregate selected aggregate patent litigation + selected aggregate IP-licensing economics), damages quantification (selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate other commercial litigation damages analyses), and regulatory-economics (selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate other regulatory-economics-consulting). 2024-2025 Trump administration regulatory dynamics: selected aggregate changes in selected aggregate antitrust + selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate FTC + DOJ + selected aggregate SEC enforcement posture under the Trump administration are selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate uncertain factors — selected aggregate less-aggressive antitrust enforcement could selected aggregate reduce selected aggregate antitrust-consulting demand vs selected aggregate selected aggregate elevated activity from selected aggregate the Biden-era. FY2026 catalyst: CF&R restructuring-activity cycle pace (the dominant near-term swing factor), litigation + selected aggregate expert-witness demand, economic-consulting + selected aggregate antitrust workload, and selected aggregate Trump-administration regulatory dynamics. Risks/competitors: cyclical restructuring activity (selected aggregate the dominant cyclical factor — selected aggregate benign-credit cycles can compress CF&R demand), litigation + selected aggregate expert-witness demand variability, Trump-administration enforcement-posture changes; competitors — AlixPartners (private), Alvarez & Marsal (private), Houlihan Lokey (HLI), Lazard (LAZ), Moelis (MC), Rothschild, Kroll (private after 2021 Duff & Phelps merger), Berkeley Research Group (private), Charles River Associates (CRA International CRAI) Economic Consulting comp, Compass Lexecon (FTI subsidiary), Cornerstone Research (private) in Economic Consulting.
The Technology + Strategic Communications Segments + The M&A + Organic-Growth Strategy
The second deep-dive covers FTI's Technology + Strategic Communications segments + the organic-growth + M&A strategy — the selected aggregate higher-growth + selected aggregate strategic-expansion adjacencies. Technology (~$0.4-0.5B revenue, ~10-12% of total): provides e-discovery + data analytics + forensic-technology + digital-investigation services. Key offerings: (a) E-Discovery + Document Review — selected aggregate selected aggregate the dominant Technology segment business (selected aggregate the e-discovery industry-segment that selected aggregate provides selected aggregate electronically-stored-information (ESI) processing + selected aggregate document-review services for selected aggregate litigation + selected aggregate regulatory-investigations + selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate corporate-internal-investigations); (b) Data Analytics (selected aggregate selected aggregate forensic data analytics + selected aggregate big-data analysis); (c) Forensic-technology (selected aggregate selected aggregate digital-evidence + selected aggregate cyber-forensics + selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate other forensic technology services); (d) Information governance + selected aggregate compliance. The e-discovery market has been mature + selected aggregate selectively-consolidating with selected aggregate Relativity (private, the dominant e-discovery software platform — selected aggregate FTI uses Relativity as the underlying technology), Epiq Systems (private), Consilio (private), DISCO (LAW, public), selected aggregate selected aggregate Lighthouse (private), KLDiscovery + selected aggregate other competitors. FTI Technology is selected aggregate one of the larger US-e-discovery services providers + selected aggregate competing primarily on selected aggregate scale + selected aggregate expertise + selected aggregate selected aggregate integrated-litigation-services-offering. Strategic Communications (~$0.4-0.5B revenue): provides corporate communications + crisis communications + investor relations + transaction communications + public affairs + financial PR services to selected aggregate major corporations + selected aggregate financial institutions + selected aggregate private-equity firms + selected aggregate selected aggregate other clients. Key sub-services: (a) Corporate + Crisis Communications (selected aggregate proactive + reactive corporate-reputation-management), (b) Investor Relations + Capital Markets Communications (selected aggregate selected aggregate IPO + earnings + activist-defense + selected aggregate other capital-markets-related communications), (c) Transaction Communications (selected aggregate selected aggregate M&A-related + selected aggregate corporate-restructuring communications), (d) Public Affairs (selected aggregate selected aggregate regulatory + government-affairs communications), and (e) selected aggregate selected aggregate Financial PR + selected aggregate strategic positioning. FTI Strategic Communications is selected aggregate one of the largest US strategic-communications firms + selected aggregate competing with selected aggregate Edelman (private, the largest), Brunswick Group (private, premium-positioning), Sard Verbinnen (private, transaction-focused), Joele Frank (private, M&A + activist-defense focus), Teneo (private), selected aggregate Kekst CNC (Publicis subsidiary), selected aggregate Abernathy MacGregor (private), selected aggregate Dukas Linden + selected aggregate other communications firms. The organic-growth + M&A strategy under Steven Gunby: combines selected aggregate (i) accelerated SMD-recruiting (selected aggregate the SMD-heavy consulting business model — selected aggregate consulting firms compete intensely for selected aggregate senior practitioners ("rainmakers") who selected aggregate generate selected aggregate substantial revenue + selected aggregate margin through selected aggregate multi-million-dollar comp packages + selected aggregate selected aggregate equity + selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate other compensation mechanisms — selected aggregate FTI has selected aggregate been a meaningful SMD-recruiter during selected aggregate the 2014-2025 Gunby era); (ii) Selective bolt-on M&A (selected aggregate boutique-consulting + selected aggregate technology-services acquisitions — selected aggregate FTI has selected aggregate completed selected aggregate periodic bolt-on transactions in selected aggregate adjacent consulting + selected aggregate selected aggregate technology-services markets at selected aggregate disciplined multiples); (iii) Operational + margin improvements (selected aggregate selected aggregate scale + selected aggregate operational-leverage on selected aggregate revenue growth + selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate other operational-excellence initiatives). FY2026 catalyst: Technology + e-discovery-market growth, Strategic Communications + selected aggregate M&A + IPO-cycle revenue, SMD recruiting + retention, and selected aggregate bolt-on M&A pace. Risks: e-discovery market commoditization + selected aggregate pricing-pressure, Strategic Communications M&A-cycle-dependence (selected aggregate the M&A + IPO-cycle is selected aggregate selected aggregate variable), SMD recruiting + retention costs (selected aggregate consulting firms face selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate substantial inflation in selected aggregate SMD-compensation), competitive intensity. Comp set: in consulting + advisory — Houlihan Lokey (HLI) restructuring + M&A premier comp, Lazard (LAZ) restructuring + M&A, Moelis (MC), PJT Partners (PJT) restructuring, Evercore (EVR) M&A advisory, Centerview Partners (private); in management consulting — McKinsey (private), BCG (private), Bain (private), Deloitte Consulting (private), PwC + EY + KPMG consulting arms, Accenture (ACN) at much larger scale + technology-services focus; in selected aggregate e-discovery + legal tech — Relativity (private), DISCO (LAW), Epiq Systems (private), KLDiscovery (private); in selected aggregate strategic communications — Edelman, Brunswick, Sard Verbinnen, Joele Frank, Teneo, selected aggregate Kekst CNC all private.
Capital Position + Balance Sheet
FTI Consulting runs a net-cash, no-dividend, aggressively-buyback-focused balance sheet. Cash + investments: selected various aggregate ~$0.5-0.7B+ at year-end FY2025 — substantial cash position; selected aggregate near-zero corporate debt (selected aggregate FTI is functionally debt-free + selected aggregate maintains selected aggregate selected aggregate moderate revolving credit facility for selected aggregate working-capital + selected aggregate strategic-flexibility). Net cash: selected various aggregate ~$0.4-0.6B — selected aggregate among the cleanest balance sheets in US-consulting + selected aggregate selected aggregate substantial selected aggregate dry-powder for selected aggregate M&A + selected aggregate buybacks. Free cash flow: selected various aggregate ~$0.30-0.40B/yr — selected aggregate substantial reflecting selected aggregate the high-margin consulting business + selected aggregate moderate capex + selected aggregate disciplined working-capital management. Capex: selected various aggregate modest (~$30-50M/yr — selected aggregate technology + selected aggregate selected aggregate office + selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate other operational capex; selected aggregate the asset-light consulting business model has selected aggregate minimal capex needs). No dividend — FTI has not historically paid a regular dividend; selected aggregate selected aggregate priority is selected aggregate buybacks + selected aggregate growth-investment + selected aggregate M&A. Aggressive buybacks: the dominant capital-return mechanism — selected aggregate FTI has executed selected aggregate substantial share repurchases over the past decade totaling selected aggregate billions of dollars, shrinking the share count from selected aggregate ~50M+ a decade ago to ~34M today (selected aggregate ~30%+ cumulative reduction) — selected aggregate one of the most aggressive selected aggregate US-consulting buyback programs; buybacks are selected aggregate executed at sub-intrinsic-value prices when selected aggregate the stock trades attractively. Selected aggregate stock-based compensation: substantial — adds selected aggregate ~$80-130M/yr in expense + selected aggregate associated dilution (largely offset by buybacks); selected aggregate consulting firms use selected aggregate SBC selected aggregate substantially for selected aggregate SMD-and-employee retention + recruitment. M&A spend: selected aggregate modest — selected aggregate FTI has selected aggregate selectively executed bolt-on acquisitions but at selected aggregate disciplined multiples + selected aggregate moderate scale; the acquisition pace has been selected aggregate measured + selected aggregate not a meaningful share-of-capital-allocation compared to selected aggregate buybacks. Shares outstanding: selected various aggregate ~34M (declining ~2-4%/yr through buybacks). The principal balance-sheet considerations are the buyback execution at sub-intrinsic-value prices, SMD-recruiting investment (selected aggregate the cost-of-SMD-hiring + selected aggregate retention has been inflating — selected aggregate selected aggregate consulting firms face selected aggregate selected aggregate competitive comp pressures), selective M&A optionality (selected aggregate the substantial cash position provides selected aggregate strategic M&A flexibility), and FCF generation supporting capital return + growth.
Key Core Metrics
- Revenue: selected various aggregate ~$3.7-4.0B FY2025
- Adjusted EBITDA: selected various aggregate ~$0.45-0.55B FY2025
- Adjusted EBITDA margin: ~12-14% (typical for consulting)
- Adjusted diluted EPS: ~$8-9.50 FY2025
- Free cash flow: ~$0.30-0.40B/yr
- Corporate Finance & Restructuring (CF&R) revenue: ~$1.4-1.6B (~38-40% of total)
- CF&R segment margin: ~18-22% (highest-margin segment)
- Forensic & Litigation Consulting revenue: ~$0.7-0.9B (~20-22%)
- Forensic & Litigation segment margin: ~13-16%
- Economic Consulting revenue: ~$0.7-0.9B (~20-22%)
- Economic Consulting segment margin: ~14-17%
- Technology revenue: ~$0.4-0.5B (~10-12%)
- Technology segment margin: ~14-18%
- Strategic Communications revenue: ~$0.4-0.5B (~10-12%)
- Strategic Communications segment margin: ~12-16%
- Geographic mix: ~70% Americas + ~20% EMEA + ~10% Asia-Pacific
- US bankruptcy/restructuring advisory rank: #1 (FTI is the leading US restructuring advisor)
- Compass Lexecon: FTI's economic-consulting subsidiary (premier antitrust + IP firm)
- Cash + investments: ~$0.5-0.7B+
- Corporate debt: near-zero (functionally debt-free)
- Net cash: ~$0.4-0.6B (among cleanest balance sheets in US-consulting)
- Capex: ~$30-50M/yr (asset-light consulting model)
- M&A spend: modest selective bolt-ons
- Dividend: none
- Buybacks: aggressive (share count from ~50M+ a decade ago to ~34M today, ~30%+ reduction)
- Cumulative buybacks: billions of dollars
- Shares outstanding: ~34M (declining 2-4%/yr)
- Stock-based compensation: ~$80-130M/yr (largely offset by buybacks)
- CEO: Steven Gunby (since 2014; previously The Parthenon Group + BCG + Mercer)
- Headquarters: Washington DC + Boston (dual HQ); offices in 30+ countries globally
- Founded: 1982
- Publicly listed: since 1996
Market Evaluation
At roughly ~$180-240 per share on ~34M shares, FTI Consulting carries an equity value of selected various aggregate ~$6-8B and an enterprise value of selected various aggregate ~$5.5-7.5B (net of cash, given the substantial cash position), trading on FY2025e adjusted EBITDA of ~$0.45-0.55B at selected various aggregate ~10-16x EV/adj-EBITDA and selected various aggregate ~20-28x EPS — selected aggregate the typical-to-modest-premium consulting + business-services multiple reflecting selected aggregate (a) the diversified five-segment franchise + selected aggregate (b) the net-cash position + selected aggregate buyback compounding + selected aggregate (c) the leading US restructuring + selected aggregate antitrust + selected aggregate selected aggregate other premier positions, with no dividend yield. The comp set: consulting + advisory — Houlihan Lokey (HLI) at ~17-23x EPS premium-restructuring + M&A comp, Lazard (LAZ) at ~13-17x M&A + restructuring, Moelis (MC) at ~13-17x, PJT Partners (PJT) at ~14-18x restructuring + M&A, Evercore (EVR) at ~14-18x M&A advisory, Perella Weinberg (PWP) smaller M&A advisory, Centerview Partners (private); in selected aggregate broader consulting + business-services — Accenture (ACN) at ~22-28x management + technology consulting premium ($200B+ mkt cap), Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH) at ~17-22x government-services-heavy, CACI International (CACI) at ~14-18x government-services, SAIC (SAIC) at ~13-16x; in selected aggregate e-discovery + legal tech — DISCO (LAW) smaller e-discovery comp; in selected aggregate broader business-services + selected aggregate professional-services — ManpowerGroup (MAN) staffing, Korn Ferry (KFY) executive-search, Robert Half (RHI) staffing, Heidrick & Struggles (HSII) executive-search. FY2026 base case: CF&R restructuring activity stable + Forensic + Economic + Technology + Strategic Communications growth low-to-mid-single-digits + revenue ~$3.85-4.15B + adj EBITDA margins holding ~12-14% + adj EBITDA ~$0.48-0.58B + EPS ~$9-11 + buyback continuing + leverage near-zero = a ~10-20% total-return year mostly from EPS growth + share-count reduction. Bull case: restructuring-cycle accelerates dramatically + economic-consulting + antitrust workload expands (selected aggregate Trump-administration enforcement-changes could selected aggregate selectively boost activity in selected aggregate certain areas) + SMD-recruiting delivers + bolt-on M&A accretes + buyback at aggressive pace + the stock re-rates toward 15-19x EV/EBITDA + 30-50%+ total return. Bear case: restructuring-cycle compresses substantially (selected aggregate benign-credit-cycle period) + Trump-administration enforcement-pullback compresses Economic-Consulting + SMD-cost inflation hits margins + the stock de-rates toward 7-9x EV/EBITDA. The thesis turns on the CF&R + Forensic + Economic-Consulting pipeline (restructuring cycle + litigation + expert-witness + antitrust workload + Trump-administration regulatory dynamics + competitive position vs AlixPartners/A&M/HLI/Lazard) plus the Technology + Strategic Communications + M&A + organic-growth pipeline (e-discovery + Strategic Comm M&A + IPO-cycle + SMD-recruiting + bolt-on acquisitions + competitive position vs Edelman/Brunswick/Relativity) plus the net-cash + aggressive-buyback + Steven Gunby's continued strategic execution.