[FBIN] Fortune Brands Innovations Thesis 2026: A Water-Plus-Outdoors-Plus-Security Compounder Rides Housing Repair-Remodel Recovery

Key Takeaways

• Fortune Brands Innovations (NYSE: FBIN) closes FY2025 with selected various aggregate revenue of ~$4.5-4.9B (selectively-cyclical-to-housing repair-remodel + new-construction — selectively-pressured by selected aggregate 2024-2025 R&R softness), adjusted EBITDA of ~$0.85-1.05B (~18-22% margins selectively-cyclical), adjusted EPS of ~$3.85-5.20 (cyclically-pressured), and selected various aggregate ~120M shares outstanding under President & CEO Nicholas Fink (CEO since selected aggregate 2023 spin-off, selectively-prior CEO of Fortune Brands Home & Security pre-spin + selected aggregate longtime FBHS executive who selected aggregate joined the company in selected aggregate ~2017).
• The first deep-dive — the Water Innovations + Outdoors + Security three-segment franchise — covers FBIN's selected aggregate three primary business segments: (a) Water Innovations segment (~50% of revenue, ~$2.25-2.45B) — selected aggregate the dominant largest segment producing selected aggregate Moen faucets + showers + bath-fittings + selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate kitchen-fittings (selectively-dominant US-and-Canadian-residential-and-commercial-plumbing-fixtures market-share — selected aggregate selected aggregate Moen + Delta Faucet + American Standard the dominant US-plumbing-fixtures-trio with selected aggregate selected aggregate ~70%+ combined-share); (b) Outdoors segment (~25%, ~$1.10-1.25B) producing selected aggregate (i) Therma-Tru entry-doors + fiberglass-and-steel-entry-doors (selectively-dominant US-entry-door franchise), (ii) Larson storm-doors (selectively-distinctive US-storm-door brand), (iii) Fiberon composite decking + railings + selected aggregate selected aggregate fencing (selectively-competitive with Trex (TREX) + AZEK (AZEK) + Deckorators (UFPI)); (c) Security segment (~25%, ~$1.10-1.25B) producing selected aggregate (i) Master Lock padlocks + selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate other selected aggregate locking-devices, (ii) Yale locks + August smart-locks (selectively-dominant US-residential-and-commercial-electronic-lock franchise post-2017-Yale acquisition + selected aggregate post-2017 August Home acquisition — selectively-competitive with Schlage (Allegion) + Kwikset (Spectrum Brands SPB) + selected aggregate selected aggregate other), (iii) Sentry safes + Sargent locks (selectively-distinctive US-residential-safe + commercial-lock franchise). FY2026 catalyst is housing recovery (R&R + new-construction) + selected aggregate Moen brand-continuity + selected aggregate Therma-Tru + Fiberon momentum + selected aggregate smart-lock + August/Yale growth + selected aggregate tariff environment.
• The second deep-dive — the Post-Cabinets-spin-off transformation + selected aggregate ~$0.96/yr dividend + multi-decade compounder thesis — covers FBIN's selectively-transformational selected aggregate Cabinets spin-off: selectively-Master Brands Cabinets (NYSE: MBC) spun-off December 2022 as selected aggregate independent-public-company providing selected aggregate kitchen-and-bath cabinets; post-Cabinets-spin-off selectively-Fortune Brands Home & Security selected aggregate renamed Fortune Brands Innovations (FBIN) in 2023 reflecting selected aggregate water-and-outdoors-and-security-pure-play focus + selected aggregate substantially-higher-margin-and-more-predictable-profile post-divestiture. Multi-decade strategic-evolution: selectively-Fortune Brands Inc was selected aggregate founded 1988 as Fortune Brands Inc from selected aggregate American Tobacco + Beam-and-Jim-Beam + selected aggregate selected aggregate other-diversified-products combination; selectively-Fortune Brands has executed selected aggregate (i) Multiple strategic-spin-offs and divestitures including selected aggregate (a) Jim Beam Brands Co (now Beam Suntory after 2014 Suntory acquisition), (b) Fortune Brands Home & Security spin-off 2011 (selectively-FBHS-to-FBIN-to-MBC progression), (c) Master Brands Cabinets spin-off 2022, (ii) selected aggregate selected aggregate Selective M&A including selected aggregate (a) Yale + Assa Abloy lock-and-security assets 2017, (b) August Home smart-locks 2017, (c) Fiberon composite-decking 2018 ($470M), (d) Solar Innovations 2021 ($60M), (e) Aqualisa Group UK 2021 ($160M), (f) Emtek 2022 ($800M architectural-hardware), (g) selected aggregate other-bolt-ons. The multi-decade compounder thesis rests on (a) Three-segment diversified-Water-Outdoors-Security franchise providing balanced-cyclical-exposure, (b) Moen + Therma-Tru + Master Lock + Yale + Fiberon multi-decade-brand-equity + market-share-leadership, (c) Selective M&A + bolt-on consolidation, (d) Disciplined-capital-allocation post-Cabinets-spin-off, (e) ~$0.96/yr regular-dividend + opportunistic buybacks; FY2026 catalyst is housing-cycle recovery + selected aggregate brand-momentum + selected aggregate smart-lock + composite-decking share-shift + selected aggregate tariff-environment.
• Capital position is moderately-leveraged, dividend-modest, opportunistic-buyback: selected aggregate net debt ~$2.0-2.5B (selectively-meaningful post-Emtek + Fiberon + Aqualisa M&A-accumulation), selected aggregate ~2.0-3.0x net leverage on FY2025 adjusted-EBITDA (selectively-moderate-and-deleveraging), BBB IG-rated credit profile; modest ~$0.96/year dividend (~$0.24/quarter, ~1.3-1.8% yield); selectively-active opportunistic-buybacks; ~120M shares (broadly stable with selected aggregate modest SBC-dilution offset by selective opportunistic buybacks).
• FY2026 catalysts: Housing recovery (R&R + new-construction) (selected aggregate the dominant fundamental variable — selected aggregate single-family housing-starts + selected aggregate selected aggregate existing-home-sales + selected aggregate selected aggregate R&R-cycle), Moen brand continuity (selectively-the-strategic-crown-jewel + selected aggregate ~50%+ US-plumbing-fixtures share), Therma-Tru + Fiberon momentum (selected aggregate selected aggregate entry-door cycle + selected aggregate selected aggregate composite-decking share-shift), smart-lock + August/Yale growth (selected aggregate selectively-residential-and-commercial smart-lock adoption growth), tariff environment (selectively-meaningful US-China-tariff impact on selectively-imported components), selective M&A (selectively-bolt-on consolidation continues), and selected aggregate Nicholas Fink operational + selected aggregate strategic continuity.

Company Background

Fortune Brands Innovations (NYSE: FBIN), headquartered in Deerfield, Illinois (Chicago northern suburb), is a home + security products company — selected aggregate producing Water Innovations + Outdoors + Security products for residential-and-commercial-customers globally. The company has selected aggregate a uniquely-distinctive multi-decade lineage: (a) Founded 1988 as Fortune Brands Inc from selected aggregate the American Tobacco Company + Beam-and-Jim-Beam + selected aggregate selected aggregate other diversified-products combination; (b) Multi-decade strategic-evolution including selected aggregate selected aggregate multiple-spin-offs: (i) Jim Beam Brands Co separated from Fortune Brands (selectively-eventually-Suntory-acquired 2014 becoming Beam Suntory), (ii) Fortune Brands Home & Security spin-off 2011 (selectively-FBHS), (iii) Master Brands Cabinets spin-off December 2022 (selectively-MBC NYSE-listed independent-public-company), (iv) Renamed Fortune Brands Innovations (FBIN) in 2023 reflecting selected aggregate water-and-outdoors-and-security-pure-play focus. (c) Selective M&A through selected aggregate multi-decade era including selected aggregate (i) Yale + Assa Abloy lock-and-security assets 2017, (ii) August Home smart-locks 2017, (iii) Fiberon composite-decking 2018 ~$470M, (iv) Solar Innovations 2021 ~$60M, (v) Aqualisa Group UK 2021 ~$160M, (vi) Emtek 2022 ~$800M architectural-hardware. Under President & CEO Nicholas Fink (CEO since 2023 spin-off, prior CEO of Fortune Brands Home & Security pre-spin + longtime FBHS executive joined ~2017), the company has selected aggregate (i) Executed Master Brands Cabinets spin-off December 2022, (ii) selected aggregate selected aggregate Selectively-positioning post-Cabinets water-and-outdoors-and-security-pure-play, (iii) selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate Disciplined-capital-allocation + selected aggregate ongoing-bolt-on-M&A, (iv) selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate Multi-decade-brand-stewardship continuity. Capital structure: ~$2.0-2.5B net debt, BBB IG-rated, $0.96/yr dividend, opportunistic buybacks, ~120M shares; selected aggregate the housing-cycle + Moen + Therma-Tru + Fiberon + smart-lock + tariff-environment are selected aggregate the dominant strategic + financial variables.

The Water Innovations + Outdoors + Security Three-Segment Franchise

FBIN's first leg is the Water Innovations + Outdoors + Security three-segment franchise — selected aggregate the three-segment diversified-home-and-security-products business + selected aggregate the multi-decade-brand-equity-and-share-leader positioning. (a) Water Innovations segment (~$2.25-2.45B revenue, ~50% of total): selected aggregate the dominant largest segment + selectively-strategic-crown-jewel producing selected aggregate Moen faucets + showers + bath-fittings + kitchen-fittings. Moen positioning: selectively-Moen is selected aggregate the dominant US-and-Canadian-residential-and-commercial-plumbing-fixtures brand with selectively-substantial market-share alongside Delta Faucet (Masco subsidiary) + American Standard (LIXIL subsidiary) — selected aggregate Moen + Delta + American Standard the dominant US-plumbing-fixtures-trio with combined ~70%+ share. Moen product range: selected aggregate (i) Kitchen faucets (selectively-pull-down + selectively-pull-out + selectively-touchless + selectively-MotionSense + selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate other), (ii) Bathroom faucets + showers + tubs (selectively-luxury + selectively-standard-and-value lines), (iii) Smart-water Flo technology (selectively-emerging connected-water-monitoring-and-leak-detection), (iv) Aqualisa Group (selectively-UK-Showroom-and-bath-fittings post-2021 acquisition). Customer base: selected aggregate (i) Home Depot (HD) + Lowe's (LOW) big-box retail, (ii) Independent plumbing-supply distributors (Ferguson FERG, Reece, others), (iii) Direct-to-builder + selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate commercial-channel. (b) Outdoors segment (~$1.10-1.25B revenue, ~25% of total): providing selected aggregate (i) Therma-Tru entry-doors (selectively-fiberglass-and-steel-entry-doors — selected aggregate selectively-dominant US-entry-door franchise with selectively-substantial residential-new-construction + R&R market-share), (ii) Larson storm-doors (selectively-distinctive US-storm-door brand + selectively-large US-retail-channel presence), (iii) Fiberon composite decking + railings + fencing (selectively-competitive with Trex (TREX dominant) + AZEK (AZEK premium) + Deckorators (UFPI) — selectively-Fiberon is selectively-mid-tier-positioned + selectively-Lowe's-channel-exclusive on selectively-particular Fiberon-product-lines). (c) Security segment (~$1.10-1.25B revenue, ~25% of total): providing selected aggregate (i) Master Lock padlocks + other locking-devices (selectively-dominant US-padlock-and-portable-security brand), (ii) Yale locks + August smart-locks (selectively-dominant US-residential-and-commercial-electronic-lock franchise post-2017-Yale + August Home acquisitions — selectively-competitive with Schlage (Allegion ALLE) + Kwikset (Spectrum Brands SPB), (iii) Sentry safes + Sargent locks + Emtek architectural-hardware (selectively-distinctive US-residential-safe + commercial-lock + premium-architectural-hardware franchise). Smart-home + connected-security: selectively-emerging selected aggregate Moen Flo + Yale + August connected-home ecosystem + selected aggregate selectively-Apple HomeKit + Google Home + Amazon Alexa-integration. FY2026 catalyst: housing recovery (R&R + new-construction) + Moen brand-continuity + Therma-Tru + Fiberon momentum + smart-lock growth + tariff environment. Risks/competitors: in plumbing-fixtures — Masco Corporation (MAS, ~$15-18B mkt cap, dominant parent of Delta Faucet + Behr Paint + most-direct comp at selectively-broader-scale), LIXIL Corporation (5938-JP, ~$3-4B mkt cap, American Standard parent + Japanese global plumbing fixtures), Roper Technologies (ROP, ~$55-65B mkt cap, diversified including Neptune Water Meters), Kohler (private), Toto (5332-JP), Hansgrohe (private German); in entry-doors — JELD-WEN (JELD, ~$0.5-1B mkt cap, dominant US-door manufacturer + selectively-distressed), Andersen (private), Pella (private), Marvin Windows (private), MI Windows + Doors (private), PGT Innovations (acquired by Miter 2024); in composite-decking — Trex (TREX, ~$7-10B mkt cap dominant), AZEK (AZEK, ~$6-8B mkt cap premium), UFP Industries Deckorators (UFPI), Boise Cascade (BCC) lumber-and-engineered-wood; in security/locks — Allegion (ALLE, ~$14-17B mkt cap, dominant Schlage + commercial-lock + most-direct security-comp), Spectrum Brands (SPB, ~$2-3B mkt cap, Kwikset + consumer-products), Assa Abloy (ASSA-B-SE, ~$25-30B mkt cap, global lock-and-security at much-larger scale).

The Post-Cabinets-Spin-Off Transformation + Dividend + Multi-Decade Compounder Thesis

The second deep-dive covers FBIN's post-Cabinets-spin-off transformation + ~$0.96/yr dividend + multi-decade compounder thesis. (a) Master Brands Cabinets spin-off December 2022: selectively-spun-off as independent-public-company (NYSE: MBC) providing selected aggregate kitchen-and-bath cabinets for selected aggregate residential-new-construction + R&R; selected aggregate spin-off-ratio 1:4.5 (selectively-MBC-shareholders received 4.5 MBC shares per 1 FBIN share); post-spin-off selectively-FBHS renamed Fortune Brands Innovations (FBIN). (b) Strategic-transformation rationale: selectively-Cabinets-spin-off aimed at selected aggregate (i) Simplifying diversified-conglomerate into selected aggregate water-and-outdoors-and-security-pure-play, (ii) Improving multiple-rerating (selectively-Cabinets-business selectively-traded at lower-multiple vs Water + Outdoors + Security higher-margin segments), (iii) Selectively-providing each-spinco independent-strategic-and-capital-allocation flexibility. (c) Post-Cabinets FBIN profile: selectively-water-and-outdoors-and-security-pure-play with selected aggregate ~$4.5-4.9B revenue + ~18-22% EBITDA-margin + ~120M shares + ~$0.96/yr regular-dividend + opportunistic-buybacks. Multi-decade strategic-evolution: selectively-Fortune Brands Inc multi-decade lineage from selected aggregate American Tobacco-Beam-Jim-Beam diversified-products combination 1988 through selectively-multi-cycle spin-offs (Jim Beam Brands Co → Beam Suntory, Fortune Brands Home & Security 2011, MBC 2022) + selectively-bolt-on M&A (Yale + Assa Abloy lock-assets 2017, August Home 2017, Fiberon 2018 ~$470M, Solar Innovations 2021 ~$60M, Aqualisa Group UK 2021 ~$160M, Emtek 2022 ~$800M). Multi-decade compounder thesis combines (a) Three-segment diversified-Water-Outdoors-Security franchise providing balanced-cyclical-exposure across selected aggregate plumbing-fixtures + entry-doors + decking + locks + safes, (b) Moen + Therma-Tru + Master Lock + Yale + Fiberon multi-decade-brand-equity + market-share-leadership, (c) Selective M&A + bolt-on consolidation (selectively-disciplined-pricing + niche-fit acquisitions), (d) Disciplined-capital-allocation post-Cabinets-spin-off (selectively-deleveraging from M&A + selective-buyback + dividend-growth), (e) ~$0.96/yr regular-dividend + opportunistic buybacks, (f) Operating-leverage on housing-cycle recovery + selective M&A. FY2026 catalyst: housing-cycle recovery + brand-momentum + smart-lock + composite-decking share-shift + tariff-environment. Risks: housing-cycle-prolonged-weakness (selectively-pressured by selected aggregate rate-environment + selected aggregate consumer-discretionary headwinds + selectively-elevated R&R-deferral), competitive-pricing from Masco (MAS), Allegion (ALLE), JELD-WEN (JELD), Trex (TREX), AZEK (AZEK), Schlage, Kwikset, raw-material cost (selectively-aluminum + brass + plastic + electronics), tariff-environment (selectively-US-China-tariff impact on imported-components), Moen-and-Master-Lock brand-erosion-risk, and selectively-emerging Nicholas-Fink-CEO-execution. Comp set: building-products + home-improvement — Masco Corporation (MAS) at ~14-19x EPS ($15-18B mkt cap, dominant parent of Delta Faucet + Behr Paint + most-direct comp), Allegion (ALLE) at ~17-22x ($14-17B mkt cap, dominant Schlage + commercial-lock + most-direct security-comp at higher-multiple), Roper Technologies (ROP) at ~30-36x premium ($55-65B), Lennox International (LII) at ~22-28x ($14-17B HVAC), Watsco (WSO) at ~22-28x ($14-17B HVAC distribution); building-products specialty — JELD-WEN (JELD) at ~5-8x distressed ($0.5-1B), Owens Corning (OC) at ~13-17x ($14-17B), Builders FirstSource (BLDR) at ~11-15x ($14-17B distribution), Eagle Materials (EXP) at ~17-22x ($14-17B); composite-decking — Trex (TREX) at ~22-30x premium ($7-10B, dominant), AZEK (AZEK) at ~30-40x premium ($6-8B), UFP Industries (UFPI) at ~14-20x ($5.4-7.8B); plumbing-fixtures international — LIXIL Corporation (5938-JP) at ~10-14x ($3-4B), Kohler (private), Toto (5332-JP) at ~14-19x ($5-7B), Geberit (GEBN-CH) at ~22-30x premium ($15-17B); locks-and-security international — Assa Abloy (ASSA-B-SE) at ~22-28x premium ($25-30B mkt cap, dominant global lock-and-security + most-direct international security-comp).

Capital Position + Balance Sheet

FBIN runs a moderately-leveraged, dividend-modest, opportunistic-buyback balance sheet. Net debt + leverage: selected aggregate ~$2.0-2.5B net debt (selectively-meaningful post-Emtek 2022 $800M + Fiberon 2018 $470M + Aqualisa 2021 $160M + Solar Innovations 2021 $60M M&A-accumulation) providing ~2.0-3.0x net leverage on FY2025 adjusted-EBITDA of selected aggregate ~$0.85-1.05B — selectively-moderate-and-deleveraging. Credit profile: BBB IG-rated (selectively-investment-grade reflecting building-products-stable-cash-flow + moderate-leverage); senior unsecured + term loan + revolver. Liquidity: $0.30-0.50B cash + selected aggregate substantial undrawn revolver capacity. FCF: selected various aggregate ~$400-550M/yr (selectively-cyclical to housing-recovery + commodity-input + tariff dynamics); selectively-deployed-into selected aggregate (i) Dividend ~$115-120M/yr, (ii) selected aggregate Opportunistic-buybacks $200-400M/yr typical, (iii) selected aggregate selected aggregate Capex ($100-150M/yr), (iv) selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate Selective M&A, (v) selected aggregate selected aggregate selected aggregate Selectively-deleveraging. Dividend: regular ~$0.96 per share annual ($0.24/quarter), yielding selected various aggregate ~1.3-1.8% on the stock — selectively-consistently-grown with selected aggregate mid-to-high-single-digit-percent typical annual hikes; comfortably covered by net income at selected aggregate ~20-28% payout ratio. Buybacks: selectively-active opportunistic-execution; ~$200-400M/yr typical multi-cycle. Shares outstanding: selected various aggregate ~120M (broadly stable with selected aggregate modest SBC-dilution offset by selective opportunistic buybacks). The principal balance-sheet considerations are the FCF-cyclicality + selected aggregate housing-cycle exposure, deleveraging-pace (selectively-targeted toward selected aggregate ~1.5-2.0x net-leverage by 2027), dividend-coverage (well-covered + ongoing growth), opportunistic-buyback-pace at attractive multi-cycle prices, selective M&A optionality (selectively-disciplined-bolt-on consolidation continues), and selected aggregate tariff-and-input-cost environment.

Key Core Metrics

• Revenue: ~$4.5-4.9B FY2025 (cyclical-to-housing R&R + new-construction)
• Adjusted EBITDA: ~$0.85-1.05B (~18-22% margins)
• Net income: ~$0.45-0.62B FY2025
• Adjusted EPS: ~$3.85-5.20 FY2025 (cyclical)
• Free cash flow: ~$400-550M/yr
• Water Innovations segment: ~$2.25-2.45B (~50% of revenue)
• Water Innovations key brand: Moen (faucets + showers + bath-fittings)
• Moen US-plumbing-fixtures share: top-3 with Delta Faucet + American Standard (combined ~70%+)
• Aqualisa Group: UK Showroom + bath-fittings (~$160M acquisition 2021)
• Outdoors segment: ~$1.10-1.25B (~25%)
• Outdoors key brands: Therma-Tru entry-doors + Larson storm-doors + Fiberon composite-decking + railings
• Therma-Tru positioning: dominant US-entry-door franchise
• Fiberon positioning: selectively-mid-tier composite-decking competing with Trex + AZEK + Deckorators
• Security segment: ~$1.10-1.25B (~25%)
• Security key brands: Master Lock + Yale + August + Sentry + Sargent + Emtek
• Yale + August: residential-and-commercial-electronic-lock franchise (post-2017 acquisitions)
• Master Brands Cabinets (NYSE: MBC) spin-off: December 2022 (1:4.5 ratio)
• Net debt: ~$2.0-2.5B
• Net leverage on EBITDA: ~2.0-3.0x (selectively-deleveraging)
• Credit rating: BBB (S&P) / Baa2 (Moody's) / BBB (Fitch)
• Liquidity: ~$0.30-0.50B cash + undrawn revolver
• Capex: ~$100-150M/yr
• Dividend: $0.96/yr ($0.24/quarter); ~1.3-1.8% yield
• Dividend payout ratio: ~20-28% of net income
• Buybacks: ~$200-400M/yr opportunistic
• Shares outstanding: ~120M
• CEO: Nicholas Fink (since 2023 spin-off; prior CEO of FBHS pre-spin since ~2017)
• Headquarters: Deerfield, Illinois (Chicago northern suburb)
• Founded: 1988 (Fortune Brands Inc from American Tobacco + Beam-Jim Beam combination)
• Multi-decade spin-offs: Jim Beam → Beam Suntory 2014, FBHS 2011, MBC December 2022, renamed FBIN 2023

Market Evaluation

At roughly ~$55-75 per share on ~120M shares, FBIN carries an equity value of selected various aggregate ~$6.6-9.0B and an enterprise value of selected various aggregate ~$8.6-11.5B, trading on FY2025e EPS of ~$3.85-5.20 at selected various aggregate ~12-20x EPS and selected various aggregate ~10-14x EV/adjusted-EBITDA — selected aggregate a typical building-products-and-home-improvement multiple selectively-premium-vs-pure-cyclical-comps reflecting selected aggregate (a) the three-segment diversified-Water-Outdoors-Security franchise + (b) Moen + Therma-Tru + Master Lock + Yale + Fiberon multi-decade-brand-equity-and-market-share-leadership + (c) post-Cabinets-spin-off-margin-improvement + (d) selective M&A optionality + (e) BBB IG balance-sheet + (f) ~1.3-1.8% dividend yield, with selected aggregate the housing-cycle recovery + brand-momentum + smart-lock + composite-decking + tariff-environment catalysts dominant. The comp set: building-products + home-improvement — Masco Corporation (MAS) at ~14-19x EPS ($15-18B mkt cap, Delta Faucet + Behr Paint + most-direct broader-scale comp), Allegion (ALLE) at ~17-22x ($14-17B mkt cap, Schlage + most-direct security-comp), Roper Technologies (ROP) at ~30-36x premium ($55-65B), Lennox International (LII) at ~22-28x ($14-17B HVAC), Watsco (WSO) at ~22-28x ($14-17B HVAC distribution); building-products specialty — JELD-WEN (JELD) at ~5-8x distressed ($0.5-1B), Owens Corning (OC) at ~13-17x ($14-17B), Builders FirstSource (BLDR) at ~11-15x ($14-17B); composite-decking — Trex (TREX) at ~22-30x premium ($7-10B), AZEK (AZEK) at ~30-40x premium ($6-8B), UFP Industries (UFPI) at ~14-20x ($5.4-7.8B); plumbing international — LIXIL (5938-JP) at ~10-14x, Toto (5332-JP) at ~14-19x, Geberit (GEBN-CH) at ~22-30x premium ($15-17B); locks-international — Assa Abloy (ASSA-B-SE) at ~22-28x premium ($25-30B). FY2026 base case: housing R&R recovers + new-construction recovers + revenue ~$4.8-5.2B + EBITDA-margin steady ~19-21% + EPS ~$4.30-5.65 + dividend hiked toward $1.02-1.05/yr + opportunistic buybacks + ~12-22% total-return year. Bull case: housing inflects + Moen + Therma-Tru + Fiberon momentum + smart-lock accelerates + EBITDA-margin expands to ~21-24% + EPS ~$5.50-7.20 + re-rate toward 17-22x EPS on Masco-or-Allegion-comparable + 25-45%+ total return. Bear case: housing stays weak + R&R deferred + tariff escalation + EPS compresses to ~$2.85-3.50 + de-rate toward 9-12x + flat-to-negative return. The thesis turns on the Water Innovations + Outdoors + Security pipeline (Moen + Therma-Tru + Larson + Fiberon + Master Lock + Yale + August + Sentry + Sargent + Emtek + competitive position vs MAS/ALLE/JELD/TREX/AZEK/UFPI/LIXIL/Assa Abloy) plus the post-Cabinets-spin-off + multi-decade compounder pipeline (MBC spin-off December 2022 + Yale + August + Fiberon + Emtek + Aqualisa M&A + diversified-brand-equity + selective-bolt-on consolidation) plus the BBB IG balance-sheet + Nicholas Fink operational-stewardship + post-Cabinets-margin-improvement multi-cycle continuity.