Entergy 2025-26: 8%+ EPS CAGR Through 2029, $43B Capex
FY25 revenue $12.95B (+9%); Op income $3.05B (+15%); NI $1.77B (+67%); EPS $3.91 (+60%, top half of guidance). 2025 retail sales +4% (industrial +7%). Long-term: 8% retail sales CAGR through 2029, 15% industrial growth. $43B capital plan through 2029 (+$2B for Cottonwood acquisition). FY26 guide: >8% adjusted EPS annual growth through 2029. Data center pipeline 7-12 GW + other industries 3-5 GW.
Key takeaways
- Adjusted EPS $3.91 in top half of guidance range. Better than the midpoint, +60% vs FY24. Strong execution against priorities.
- 8%+ EPS CAGR through 2029. Mgmt explicitly guides >8% adjusted EPS annual growth — among the highest among regulated utilities. Retail sales CAGR 8% through 2029 the underlying.
- Data center demand the structural lever. Pipeline of 7-12 GW data centers + 3-5 GW other industries. Industrial sales projected +15% CAGR through 2029.
- $43B capital plan through 2029 (+$2B with Cottonwood). Major upward revision. Cottonwood (TX) acquired adding ~700 MW gas-fired generation.
- Customer satisfaction at top of industry. Net Promoter Score first quartile for residential + business. Entergy Texas #1 in business electric service satisfaction (J.D. Power).
Business
Entergy is a regulated electric utility serving 3M+ customers across Louisiana, Mississippi, Arkansas, and Texas. Three reporting segments + corporate:
- Utility (~95% of revenue): Entergy Louisiana + Entergy New Orleans + Entergy Mississippi + Entergy Arkansas + Entergy Texas. Vertically-integrated electric service.
- Entergy Wholesale Commodities (EWC): Mostly wound down post-Indian Point + Palisades sales. Small residual.
- Cottonwood (post-acquisition): ~700 MW gas-fired generation in Texas serving large industrial customers. Closed late FY25.
Strategic positioning: Gulf Coast + Mid-Continent utility footprint with rapidly-growing industrial customer base. Data center alley emerging in Mississippi (Meta has multiple campuses) + Texas industrial reshoring (semiconductor + battery + chemical) driving 15% industrial sales CAGR projection.
FY25 financial performance
| Metric (FY) | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($B) | 12.15 | 11.88 | 12.95 |
| Gross profit ($B) | 5.33 | 5.74 | 3.87 |
| Op income ($B) | 2.62 | 2.65 | 3.05 |
| Op margin | 21.6% | 22.3% | 23.6% |
| EBITDA ($B) | 4.92 | 5.04 | 6.15 |
| Net income ($B) | 2.36 | 1.06 | 1.77 |
| Diluted EPS ($) | 5.55 | 2.45 | 3.91 |
| Adj EPS ($) | ~$3.65 | ~$3.55 | $3.91 |
| FCF ($B) | -0.42 | -1.48 | -2.79 |
| Capex ($B) | -4.71 | -5.97 | -7.94 |
| Total debt ($B) | 26.54 | 29.31 | 30.93 |
| Dividends ($B) | -0.94 | -1.00 | -1.09 |
The earnings print: Revenue +9%, op margin +130bp to 23.6%, EPS +60%. Adj EPS $3.91 top half of guide. Capex stepped to $-7.94B FY25 (61% of revenue) — heavy growth investment for data center load + Cottonwood acquisition. Total debt $30.93B (+$1.6B YoY). FCF -$2.79B reflects capex > operating cash flow.
Capital allocation
- Capex: $-7.94B FY25 — heavy. $43B plan through 2029 (~$8.6B/year average).
- Dividends: $-1.09B FY25 (+9% YoY). Continued raise.
- Buybacks: zero. Capital priority on capex.
- M&A: Cottonwood acquisition closed (~$2B addition to capital plan).
- Debt management: $30.93B (+$1.6B YoY) funding capex.
FY26 outlook (per Q4 2025 call, 2026-02-12)
| FY26 / Long-term | Guide |
|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS annual growth (through 2029) | >8% |
| Retail sales CAGR (through 2029) | 8% |
| Industrial sales CAGR (through 2029) | 15% |
| Data center pipeline | 7-12 GW |
| Other industries pipeline | 3-5 GW |
| Capital plan (through 2029) | $43B (+$2B for Cottonwood) |
| Credit metrics | Moody's CFO/debt above downgrade threshold |
The 8%+ EPS CAGR sets Entergy at the high end of regulated utility growth peers — comparable to AEP, Dominion. The 15% industrial sales CAGR is the structural read.
Key risks
- Data center load conversion: Pipeline 7-12 GW must actually energize. Speculative reservations could fall through.
- Regulatory rate cases: Multi-state utility footprint requires rate case wins to recover capex.
- Hurricane / storm: Gulf Coast exposure. Severe weather can compress earnings + delay recovery.
- Generation mix transition: Coal retirements + gas additions + renewables build-out. Cottonwood (gas) supports near-term needs.
- Interest rates: $30.9B debt; rate cycle affects refinancing cost.
- Credit rating: Heavy capex + load growth assumptions; rating agencies watching.
Bottom line
ETR FY25 is the data center + industrial growth thesis solidified. Revenue +9%, adj EPS $3.91 top half of guide, retail sales +4% with industrial +7%. Long-term 8%+ EPS CAGR + 15% industrial CAGR + $43B capex through 2029. The structural read: among the most directly-leveraged utilities to data center + reshoring industrial demand. Risks are load conversion + regulatory + storm + interest rates.
Citations
- Entergy Corp. FY25 Form 10-K (filed February 2026, SEC EDGAR).
- Entergy Q4 2025 earnings call, 2026-02-12 — adj EPS $3.91 top half of guide; retail sales +4% (industrial +7%); long-term >8% adj EPS annual growth through 2029, 8% retail sales CAGR (15% industrial); $43B capital plan + $2B for Cottonwood; data center pipeline 7-12 GW + other industries 3-5 GW; J.D. Power #1 Texas business electric satisfaction.
- Internal financial_statements view (consolidated annual + cash flow + capital structure).