[EQH] Equitable Holdings Thesis 2026: Annuity Spread Cycle Drives AllianceBernstein Capital Return
Key Takeaways
- Equitable Holdings Inc. (NYSE: EQH) FY2025 revenue ~$13.5-14.5B (+5-12% YoY) with adj. EPS ~$6.30-7.00 reflecting continued post-2024 ~$5.2-5.6B aggregate Individual Retirement (~38% aggregate revenue mix) plus selected continued post-2024 ~$3.5-3.8B aggregate Group Retirement (~26%) plus selected continued post-2024 ~$2.0-2.2B aggregate AllianceBernstein revenue (~15%) plus selected continued post-2024 ~$1.4-1.6B aggregate Investment Management & Research + selected various Protection Solutions revenue (~21%) plus selected post-September 2018 selected various AXA Equitable Holdings IPO + selected continued post-September 2018 selected various AXA ownership reduction trajectory under continued President + CEO Mark Pearson since 2008 (~17-year tenure as Equitable Holdings CEO; ex-AXA Equitable Life Insurance + ex-various AXA roles + ~30-year industry career).
- Annuity spread cycle: ~$5.2-5.6B aggregate Individual Retirement revenue FY2025 (~38% aggregate revenue mix); selected continued post-2024 selected primary US fixed annuity + selected various variable annuity + selected various indexed annuity demand recovery; selected continued post-2024 ~3.5-4.0% aggregate Net Investment Income spread + selected continued post-2024 ~$0.40-0.60 incremental annual EPS contribution.
- AllianceBernstein + Investment Management: ~$2.0-2.2B aggregate AllianceBernstein revenue (~15% aggregate revenue mix; selected ~64%+ aggregate Equitable Holdings ownership of AllianceBernstein); selected continued post-2024 ~$700-800B aggregate AllianceBernstein AUM + selected various Investment Management asset growth + selected continued post-2024 selected various ~$0.20-0.30 incremental annual EPS contribution.
- Capital return:
$1.00 annual dividend FY2025 ($0.25/quarter; selected post-2024 ~+5-10% growth post-2024 ~$0.96 dividend; selected ~7-year continuous dividend track post-September 2018 AXA Equitable Holdings IPO dividend initiation); selected$1.5-2.0B aggregate FY2024-2025 buyback program ($700M-1B aggregate FY2025); ~$1.05-1.30B aggregate FY2025 capital return; selected post-2024 net leverage ratio ~25-30% debt-to-capital; investment-grade Baa1/A- credit rating; FY2026 catalyst: continued capital return + selected potential post-2024 dividend acceleration + selected continued post-September 2018 AXA ownership reduction.
Company Background
Equitable Holdings Inc. (NYSE: EQH) is one of the largest US life insurance + retirement services + investment management companies (~64%+ AllianceBernstein ownership) with FY2025 revenue ~$13.5-14.5B (+5-12% YoY) and adj. EPS ~$6.30-7.00 reflecting continued post-2024 ~$5.2-5.6B aggregate Individual Retirement + selected continued post-2024 ~$3.5-3.8B aggregate Group Retirement + selected continued post-2024 ~$2.0-2.2B aggregate AllianceBernstein + selected continued post-2024 ~$1.4-1.6B aggregate Investment Management & Research + selected various Protection Solutions + selected post-September 2018 AXA Equitable Holdings IPO. The company employs ~9,000+ globally with operations across selected major New York City + selected various.
Founded 1859 as The Equitable Life Assurance Society of the United States in New York City (166-year heritage; selected one of selected oldest continuing US life insurance companies); selected post-1991 AXA SA acquisition + selected various AXA Equitable Life Insurance subsidiary; selected post-September 2018 AXA Equitable Holdings IPO (selected post-AXA SA partial divestiture); selected post-September 2018 NYSE listing IPO ($2.7B aggregate raised; selected $14B+ aggregate market cap valuation post-listing); selected post-September 2018 AXA Equitable Holdings → Equitable Holdings name change; selected post-2008 Mark Pearson CEO continuation (selected ex-AXA Equitable Life Insurance + ex-various AXA roles); selected continued post-September 2018 selected various AXA ownership reduction trajectory.
Headquartered in New York City; ~9,000+ employees globally with ~$13.5-14.5B revenue. Five primary business segments: Individual Retirement (~38% revenue ~$5.2-5.6B — selected primary US fixed annuity + selected various variable annuity + selected various indexed annuity), Group Retirement (~26% revenue ~$3.5-3.8B — selected primary US 403(b) + selected various 401(k) + selected various Group Retirement), AllianceBernstein (~15% revenue ~$2.0-2.2B — selected ~64%+ aggregate Equitable Holdings ownership of AllianceBernstein investment management), Investment Management & Research (~12% revenue ~$1.6-1.7B — selected various wealth management + selected various advisor services), Protection Solutions (~9% revenue ~$1.2-1.3B — selected primary US life insurance + selected various). Geographic mix: US 95%+ revenue ($12.8-13.8B) + selected various international 5% ($680-720M).
President + CEO Mark Pearson since 2008 (~17-year tenure as Equitable Holdings CEO); selected ex-AXA Equitable Life Insurance + ex-various AXA roles + ~30-year industry career; selected continued strategic priorities include Individual Retirement + Group Retirement + AllianceBernstein + Investment Management & Research + Protection Solutions leadership + selected continued post-September 2018 AXA ownership reduction + selected continued post-2024 capital return acceleration. CFO Robin Raju (since 2021; ex-AXA Equitable Life Insurance + ex-various roles + ~25-year industry career).
Annuity Spread Cycle
Equitable Holdings Individual Retirement franchise:
- Individual Retirement revenue:
38% aggregate revenue ($5.2-5.6B) - Fixed annuity + variable annuity + indexed annuity: selected primary US fixed annuity + selected various variable annuity + selected various indexed annuity
- Net Investment Income spread: ~3.5-4.0% aggregate
- Selected continued post-2024 fixed annuity sales recovery: continued post-2024 selected various
- Selected continued post-2024 ~$0.40-0.60 incremental annual EPS contribution: continued post-2024
FY2026 catalyst: continued Annuity spread cycle + ~$0.40-0.60 incremental annual EPS contribution.
AllianceBernstein + Investment Management
Equitable Holdings AllianceBernstein + Investment Management franchise:
- AllianceBernstein revenue:
15% aggregate revenue ($2.0-2.2B) - AllianceBernstein ownership: selected ~64%+ aggregate Equitable Holdings ownership of AllianceBernstein
- AllianceBernstein AUM: ~$700-800B aggregate
- Investment Management & Research:
12% revenue ($1.6-1.7B); selected primary wealth management + selected various advisor services - Selected continued post-2024 ~$0.20-0.30 incremental annual EPS contribution: continued post-2024
FY2026 catalyst: continued AllianceBernstein + Investment Management + ~$0.20-0.30 incremental EPS contribution.
Capital Return + AXA Ownership Reduction
Equitable Holdings capital return + selected continued post-September 2018 AXA ownership reduction:
- Ordinary dividend:
$1.00 annual FY2025 ($0.25/quarter; selected post-2024 ~+5-10% growth post-2024 ~$0.96 dividend; selected ~7-year continuous dividend track post-September 2018) - Buybacks:
$1.5-2.0B aggregate FY2024-2025 buyback program ($700M-1B aggregate FY2025) - Aggregate capital return: ~$1.05-1.30B FY2025
- Net leverage: ~25-30% debt-to-capital FY2025
- Investment grade: Baa1/A- credit rating
- AXA ownership trajectory: selected continued post-September 2018 AXA aggregate ownership reduction
FY2026 catalyst: continued capital return + selected potential post-2024 dividend acceleration + selected continued post-September 2018 AXA ownership reduction.
Risks
- Selected various competitive intensity: Athene + MetLife + Lincoln Financial + Corebridge Financial + selected various US life insurance + retirement services competitive
- Selected various Federal Reserve interest rate: continued post-2024 Federal Reserve interest rate cycle vs Net Investment Income spread
- Selected various US fixed annuity cycle: continued post-2024 US fixed annuity sales cycle
- Selected various AllianceBernstein AUM: continued post-2024 AllianceBernstein AUM market volatility
- Selected various reserve adequacy: continued post-2024 selected various life insurance reserve adequacy
Key Core Metrics
| Metric | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2026 outlook |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $13.5-14.5B | $13.0B | $12.45B | $12.20B | $14.0-15.0B |
| Adj. operating earnings | $2.05-2.30B | $1.85B | $1.65B | $1.60B | $2.30-2.55B |
| Adj. EPS (USD) | $6.30-7.00 | $5.70 | $5.05 | $4.55 | $7.00-7.85 |
| Adj. operating margin | 15-16% | 14% | 13% | 13% | 16-17% |
| ROE | 13-15% | 12% | 11% | 11% | 14-16% |
| Capital return | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2026 outlook |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend | $1.00 | $0.96 | $1.05-1.15 |
| Buybacks | $700M-1B | $1.0B | $700M-1B |
| Total return | $1.05-1.30B | $1.30B | $1.10-1.40B |
| Net leverage | 25-30% | 27% | 25-30% |
Market Evaluation
Equitable Holdings trades at selected ~7-9x FY2026 P/E discount vs Athene (private; ~7-9x) + MetLife (~9-12x) + Lincoln Financial (~7-10x) + Corebridge Financial (~6-8x) + selected various US life insurance + retirement services peers reflecting selected continued ~$5.2-5.6B aggregate Individual Retirement + selected continued post-2024 ~$3.5-3.8B aggregate Group Retirement + selected continued post-2024 ~$2.0-2.2B aggregate AllianceBernstein + selected ~64%+ AllianceBernstein ownership + selected ~7-year continuous dividend track post-September 2018. Selected re-rating catalysts include: (1) continued Annuity spread cycle + ~3.5-4.0% NIM spread; (2) selected continued post-2024 AllianceBernstein + Investment Management + ~$700-800B aggregate AUM; (3) ~$1.00 dividend + ~+5-10% growth + selected ~7-year continuous dividend track; (4) ~$700M-1B aggregate annual buybacks + selected continued post-September 2018 AXA ownership reduction; (5) selected continued post-September 2018 ~25-30% debt-to-capital supporting selected continued capital return.
Annuity + AllianceBernstein Strategic Differentiation Deep Dive
Equitable Holdings Individual Retirement annuity franchise + selected ~64%+ aggregate AllianceBernstein ownership + selected post-September 2018 AXA Equitable Holdings IPO represent selected primary strategic differentiation thesis vs traditional US life insurance + retirement services peers (Athene + MetLife + Lincoln Financial + Corebridge Financial + selected various). Selected ~$5.2-5.6B aggregate Individual Retirement revenue FY2025 (~38% aggregate revenue mix; selected primary US fixed annuity + selected various variable annuity + selected various indexed annuity) + selected continued post-2024 selected primary US fixed annuity sales recovery + selected various indexed + variable annuity demand recovery + selected continued post-2024 ~3.5-4.0% aggregate Net Investment Income spread + selected continued post-2024 ~$0.40-0.60 incremental annual EPS contribution supports selected primary Annuity spread cycle thesis. Selected continued post-2024 ~$2.0-2.2B aggregate AllianceBernstein revenue (~15% aggregate revenue mix) + selected ~64%+ aggregate Equitable Holdings ownership of AllianceBernstein + selected continued post-2024 ~$700-800B aggregate AllianceBernstein AUM + selected various Investment Management & Research (~12% revenue ~$1.6-1.7B) + selected continued post-2024 $0.20-0.30 incremental annual EPS contribution supports selected continued post-2024 AllianceBernstein + Investment Management franchise. Selected post-September 2018 AXA Equitable Holdings IPO ($2.7B aggregate raised; selected $14B+ aggregate market cap valuation post-listing) + selected continued post-September 2018 selected various AXA ownership reduction trajectory + selected ~$1.00 annual dividend FY2025 (~7-year continuous dividend track post-September 2018) + selected ~$1.5-2.0B aggregate FY2024-2025 buyback program supports selected continued post-2024 capital return optionality. Selected post-2008 Mark Pearson CEO continuation (selected ex-AXA Equitable Life Insurance + ~30-year industry career) supports selected continued post-2008 strategic priorities. FY2026 catalyst: continued Annuity + AllianceBernstein + ~$0.40-0.60 incremental annual EPS contribution.
FY2026 thesis: Annuity spread cycle + AllianceBernstein + Investment Management recovery + ~$1.00 annual dividend + ~7-year continuous dividend track + ~$700M-1B aggregate annual buybacks + ~$1.10-1.40B aggregate FY2026 capital return + selected continued post-September 2018 AXA ownership reduction + selected potential post-2024 dividend acceleration.