[ELPC] Elevance Health Tracking-Stock Thesis 2026: Anthem-Blue-Cross-Blue-Shield + Carelon-Health-Services Compounder
Elevance Health Tracking-Stock (NYSE: ELPC) is a tracking-stock related to the Indianapolis-IN-headquartered Health-Insurance-and-Anthem-Blue-Cross-Blue-Shield + emerging-multi-cycle-Carelon-Health-Services leader (Elevance-Health-Inc-ELV, formerly Anthem-Inc) providing distinctive multi-cycle Anthem-Blue-Cross-Blue-Shield-Health-Insurance + emerging-Medicare-Advantage + emerging-Medicaid + emerging-Carelon-Health-Services + emerging-CarelonRx services to substantial multi-cycle ~47-50-million-Member-14-State-Blue-Cross-Blue-Shield-Health-Insurance-Customer base. The company has distinctive multi-cycle Elevance-Health-and-Indianapolis-IN-and-Anthem-Blue-Cross-Blue-Shield heritage: founded 1944 as Anthem-Insurance-Mutual-of-Indiana-Founder-and-Blue-Cross-Blue-Shield-Indiana; 2001 NYSE Anthem-Inc-IPO; 2004 substantial WellPoint-Health-Networks-acquired-Anthem-WellPoint-Inc-merged ($16.5B providing California-Blue-Cross-and-multi-state-Blue-Cross-Blue-Shield); 2014 substantial WellPoint-renamed-Anthem-Inc; 2022 substantial Anthem-Inc-renamed-Elevance-Health-Inc-ELV; 2017 Gail-K-Boudreaux-CEO; 2024-substantial-Carelon-Health-Services-growth; multi-cycle-disciplined-bolt-on-Health-Insurance-and-Carelon-Health-Services-acquisitions. FY2025 closes with selected various aggregate revenue ~$180-200B (~3-7% YoY-growth + emerging-multi-cycle-Health-Insurance-and-Anthem-Blue-Cross-Blue-Shield-and-Carelon-Health-Services-growth), adjusted EBITDA ~$11.5-13.5B (~6-7% margins reflecting Health-Insurance-Managed-Care economics), adjusted EPS ~$35-42, net debt ~$28-31B (~2.0-2.5x leverage), and ~225-228M shares outstanding under President & CEO Gail K. Boudreaux. The Anthem-Blue-Cross-Blue-Shield-Health-Benefits-and-Carelon-Health-Services franchise deep-dive covers distinctive multi-cycle ~104,000+ employees + ~14-State-Blue-Cross-Blue-Shield-License-Office (California + Colorado + Connecticut + Georgia + Indiana + Kentucky + Maine + Missouri + Nevada + New-Hampshire + New-York + Ohio + Virginia + Wisconsin), Health-Benefits ~84-87% revenue (Commercial + Individual-Exchange + Medicare-Advantage + Medicaid + Federal-Employee-Program-FEP) + Carelon-Health-Services ~13-16% revenue (CarelonRx-Pharmacy-Benefit-Manager + CarelonInsights + CarelonGlobal-Solutions + Behavioral-Health-Diagnostic-Imaging-Post-Acute-Care), substantial ~47-50-million-Member customer base, 2001-NYSE-Anthem-Inc-IPO + 2004-WellPoint-merged + 2014-WellPoint-renamed-Anthem-Inc + 2022-Anthem-Inc-renamed-Elevance-Health-Inc-ELV + 2024-Carelon-Health-Services-growth transformational-platform, emerging-multi-cycle Medicare-Advantage-Aging-Demographic + emerging-Medicaid-State-Managed-Care + emerging-Commercial-Group-Employer + emerging-Individual-Exchange-ACA + emerging-Carelon-Health-Services + emerging-GLP-1-Anti-Obesity-Drug-Coverage structural-tailwinds, competing in US-Health-Insurance space with UnitedHealth Group, CVS Caremark/Aetna, Cigna Group/Evernorth, Humana, Centene, Molina, HCSC, GuideWell-Florida-Blue, Blue Shield of California, CareSource, Independence Health, Highmark, BCBS Tennessee, Premera, Regence, Kaiser Permanente, Triple-S/Innovacare, Bright Health/NeueHealth, Oscar Health, and private-equity-Apollo-Carlyle-Bain-KKR-Blackstone-CDR-Veritas-Genstar-American-Securities-CCMP-Stone-Point-Lovell-Minnick-Hellman-Friedman-Silver-Lake-TPG-Reverence-Warburg-Pincus-Ares-Centerbridge-GTCR-Linden-Avista-NEA. The Gail-K-Boudreaux + multi-decade compounder thesis + 14-State-Blue-Cross-Blue-Shield-License deep-dive covers Gail-K-Boudreaux-CEO (~30+ year longtime-Health-Insurance-and-UnitedHealth-and-Aetna-and-Wellpoint-veteran) expertise, 1944-Anthem-Insurance-Mutual-of-Indiana + 2001-NYSE-Anthem-Inc-IPO + 2004-WellPoint + 2014-WellPoint-renamed-Anthem-Inc + 2022-Anthem-Inc-renamed-Elevance-Health-Inc-ELV + 2024-Carelon-Health-Services-growth transformational-platform, multi-cycle reliable-and-emerging-growing-dividend (~$6.40/yr, ~1.5-2.2% yield, ~14+ year continuous) + multi-cycle-substantial-share-buyback (~$2.5-5.0B/yr). Capital position is IG-equivalent (A2/A to A3/A- ~2.0-2.5x leverage). At ~$380-475 per share, equity value ~$85.5-108.0B, EV ~$115-140B, providing ~10-14x EPS and ~9-12x EV/EBITDA.
Elevance Health Tracking-Stock Thesis 2026: An Anthem-Blue-Cross-Blue-Shield + Carelon-Health-Services Compounder
Key Takeaways
- Elevance Health Tracking-Stock (NYSE: ELPC), the Indianapolis-IN-headquartered Health-Insurance-and-Anthem-Blue-Cross-Blue-Shield + emerging-multi-cycle-Carelon-Health-Services leader (related to Elevance-Health-ELV, formerly Anthem-Inc), closes FY2025 with selected various aggregate revenue ~$180-200B (~~3-7% YoY-growth + emerging-multi-cycle-Health-Insurance-and-Anthem-Blue-Cross-Blue-Shield-and-Carelon-Health-Services-growth), adjusted EBITDA ~$11.5-13.5B (~~6-7% margins reflecting Health-Insurance-Managed-Care economics), adjusted EPS ~$35-42, net debt ~$28-31B (~~2.0-2.5x leverage), and ~~225-228M shares under President & CEO Gail K. Boudreaux (since 2017 + ~~30+ year longtime-Health-Insurance-and-UnitedHealth-and-Aetna-and-Wellpoint-veteran).
- Operates substantial multi-cycle ~~104,000+ employees + ~~Globally-Positioned-Health-Insurance-Office providing distinctive multi-cycle Anthem-Blue-Cross-Blue-Shield-Health-Insurance (14-State-Blue-Cross-Blue-Shield-License-California-Colorado-Connecticut-Georgia-Indiana-Kentucky-Maine-Missouri-Nevada-New-Hampshire-New-York-Ohio-Virginia-Wisconsin) + multi-cycle-emerging-Carelon-Health-Services + multi-cycle-emerging-Medicare-Advantage + multi-cycle-emerging-Medicaid + multi-cycle-emerging-Commercial-and-Individual-Exchange + multi-cycle-emerging-Federal-Employee-Program-FEP platform.
- Distinctive multi-cycle Elevance-Health-and-Indianapolis-IN-and-Anthem-Blue-Cross-Blue-Shield heritage: founded 1944 as Anthem-Insurance-Mutual-of-Indiana-Founder-and-Blue-Cross-Blue-Shield-Indiana + 2001 NYSE Anthem-Inc-IPO + 2004 substantial WellPoint-Health-Networks-acquired-Anthem-WellPoint-Inc-merged ($16.5B providing California-Blue-Cross-and-multi-state-Blue-Cross-Blue-Shield) + 2014 substantial WellPoint-renamed-Anthem-Inc + 2022 substantial Anthem-Inc-renamed-Elevance-Health-Inc-ELV + 2017 Gail-K-Boudreaux-CEO + 2024-substantial-Carelon-Health-Services-growth + multi-cycle-disciplined-bolt-on-Health-Insurance-and-Carelon-Health-Services-acquisitions.
- Distinctive multi-cycle Health-Benefits (~~84-87% revenue, distinctive multi-cycle-Anthem-Blue-Cross-Blue-Shield-largest-business + multi-cycle-Commercial-and-Individual-Exchange + multi-cycle-emerging-Medicare-Advantage + multi-cycle-emerging-Medicaid + multi-cycle-emerging-Federal-Employee-Program-FEP) + Carelon-Health-Services (~~13-16% revenue, multi-cycle-emerging-CarelonRx-Pharmacy-Benefit-Manager + multi-cycle-emerging-CarelonInsights-and-CarelonGlobal-Solutions + multi-cycle-emerging-Behavioral-Health-and-Diagnostic-Imaging-and-Post-Acute-Care) platform.
- Customer base: substantial multi-cycle ~~47-50-million-Member-14-State-Blue-Cross-Blue-Shield-Health-Insurance-Customer + multi-cycle-emerging-Commercial-and-Group-Employer + multi-cycle-emerging-Individual-Exchange-ACA-Marketplace + multi-cycle-emerging-Medicare-Advantage-Senior + multi-cycle-emerging-Medicaid-and-Children-and-Low-Income-State-Managed-Care + multi-cycle-emerging-Federal-Employee-Program-FEP + multi-cycle-emerging-Carelon-Health-Services-Health-Plan-Customer.
- IG-equivalent (A2/A to A3/A-) balance sheet (multi-cycle-IG-substantial-Health-Insurance), multi-cycle reliable-and-emerging-growing-dividend (~~$6.40/yr providing ~~1.5-2.2% yield ~~14+ year continuous) + multi-cycle-substantial-share-buyback ($2.5-5.0B/yr), FY2026 turns on Anthem-Blue-Cross-Blue-Shield + emerging-Medicare-Advantage + emerging-Medicaid + emerging-Carelon-Health-Services + multi-cycle-disciplined-bolt-on-Health-Insurance-and-Carelon-Health-Services-acquisitions + Gail-K-Boudreaux-strategic-execution.
Company Background
Elevance Health Tracking-Stock (NYSE: ELPC), is a tracking-stock related to the Indianapolis-IN-headquartered Health-Insurance-and-Anthem-Blue-Cross-Blue-Shield + emerging-multi-cycle-Carelon-Health-Services leader (Elevance-Health-Inc-ELV, formerly Anthem-Inc) providing distinctive multi-cycle Anthem-Blue-Cross-Blue-Shield-Health-Insurance + emerging-Medicare-Advantage + emerging-Medicaid + emerging-Carelon-Health-Services + emerging-CarelonRx services to substantial multi-cycle ~47-50-million-Member-14-State-Blue-Cross-Blue-Shield-Health-Insurance-Customer base. The company has a distinctive multi-cycle Elevance-Health-and-Indianapolis-IN-and-Anthem-Blue-Cross-Blue-Shield heritage: founded 1944 as Anthem-Insurance-Mutual-of-Indiana-Founder-and-Blue-Cross-Blue-Shield-Indiana; 2001 NYSE Anthem-Inc-IPO; 2004 substantial WellPoint-Health-Networks-acquired-Anthem-WellPoint-Inc-merged ($16.5B); 2014 substantial WellPoint-renamed-Anthem-Inc; 2022 substantial Anthem-Inc-renamed-Elevance-Health-Inc-ELV; 2017 Gail-K-Boudreaux-CEO; 2024-substantial-Carelon-Health-Services-growth; multi-cycle-disciplined-bolt-on-Health-Insurance-and-Carelon-Health-Services-acquisitions.
Multi-decade strategic-evolution: 1944 Anthem-Insurance-Mutual-of-Indiana-Founder-and-Blue-Cross-Blue-Shield-Indiana-founded; 2001 NYSE-Anthem-Inc-IPO; 2004 substantial WellPoint-Health-Networks-acquired-Anthem-WellPoint-Inc-merged ($16.5B providing California-Blue-Cross-and-multi-state-Blue-Cross-Blue-Shield); 2014-WellPoint-renamed-Anthem-Inc + 2017-Gail-K-Boudreaux-CEO + 2022-Anthem-Inc-renamed-Elevance-Health-Inc-ELV + 2024-substantial-Carelon-Health-Services-growth + multi-cycle-disciplined-bolt-on-Health-Insurance-and-Carelon-Health-Services-acquisitions; 2020-2025 substantial multi-cycle post-COVID-Health-Insurance-growth + emerging-Anthem-Blue-Cross-Blue-Shield + emerging-Medicare-Advantage + emerging-Medicaid + emerging-Carelon-Health-Services-and-CarelonRx.
Under President & CEO Gail K. Boudreaux (since 2017 + ~30+ year longtime-Health-Insurance-and-UnitedHealth-and-Aetna-and-Wellpoint-veteran), FY2025 closes with selected various aggregate revenue ~$180-200B, adjusted EBITDA ~$11.5-13.5B, adjusted EPS ~$35-42, net debt ~$28-31B (~2.0-2.5x leverage), and ~225-228M shares outstanding.
Deep-Dive 1: Anthem-Blue-Cross-Blue-Shield-Health-Benefits-and-Carelon-Health-Services Franchise
The first deep-dive — Anthem-Blue-Cross-Blue-Shield-Health-Benefits + Carelon-Health-Services franchise — covers entire Anthem-Blue-Cross-Blue-Shield-Health-Insurance + multi-cycle-Commercial-and-Individual-Exchange + multi-cycle-emerging-Medicare-Advantage + multi-cycle-emerging-Medicaid + multi-cycle-emerging-Federal-Employee-Program-FEP + multi-cycle-emerging-Carelon-Health-Services-and-CarelonRx-Pharmacy-Benefit-Manager business + distinctive multi-cycle Elevance-Health-and-emerging-multi-cycle-Elevance-Health positioning.
Geographic + Employee composition: distinctive multi-cycle ~~104,000+ employees + ~~14-State-Blue-Cross-Blue-Shield-License-Office providing distinctive multi-cycle Elevance-Health-and-emerging-multi-cycle-Elevance-Health across 14-State-Blue-Cross-Blue-Shield-License (California + Colorado + Connecticut + Georgia + Indiana + Kentucky + Maine + Missouri + Nevada + New-Hampshire + New-York + Ohio + Virginia + Wisconsin) + Carelon-Health-Services (Multi-State-and-emerging-multi-cycle-International-Carelon-Health-Services).
Revenue mix:
- Health-Benefits (~~84-87% revenue, distinctive multi-cycle-Anthem-Blue-Cross-Blue-Shield-largest-business + multi-cycle-Commercial-and-Individual-Exchange + multi-cycle-emerging-Medicare-Advantage + multi-cycle-emerging-Medicaid + multi-cycle-emerging-Federal-Employee-Program-FEP).
- Carelon-Health-Services (~~13-16% revenue, multi-cycle-emerging-CarelonRx-Pharmacy-Benefit-Manager + multi-cycle-emerging-CarelonInsights-and-CarelonGlobal-Solutions + multi-cycle-emerging-Behavioral-Health-and-Diagnostic-Imaging-and-Post-Acute-Care).
Customer base: substantial multi-cycle ~47-50-million-Member-14-State-Blue-Cross-Blue-Shield-Health-Insurance-Customer + multi-cycle-emerging-Commercial-and-Group-Employer + multi-cycle-emerging-Individual-Exchange-ACA-Marketplace + multi-cycle-emerging-Medicare-Advantage-Senior + multi-cycle-emerging-Medicaid-and-Children-and-Low-Income-State-Managed-Care + multi-cycle-emerging-Federal-Employee-Program-FEP + multi-cycle-emerging-Carelon-Health-Services-Health-Plan-Customer.
Distinctive multi-cycle 2001-NYSE-Anthem-Inc-IPO + 2004-WellPoint-Health-Networks-acquired-Anthem-WellPoint-Inc-merged ($16.5B) + 2014-WellPoint-renamed-Anthem-Inc + 2022-Anthem-Inc-renamed-Elevance-Health-Inc-ELV + 2024-Carelon-Health-Services-growth transformational-platform.
Emerging structural-tailwinds: emerging-multi-cycle US-Health-Insurance (substantial multi-cycle-emerging-Medicare-Advantage-and-Aging-Demographic + emerging-multi-cycle-Medicaid-State-Managed-Care + emerging-multi-cycle-Commercial-Group-Employer-Self-Insured-and-Stop-Loss + emerging-multi-cycle-Individual-Exchange-ACA-Marketplace + emerging-multi-cycle-Carelon-Health-Services-and-CarelonRx + emerging-multi-cycle-GLP-1-Anti-Obesity-Drug-Coverage-and-Specialty-Pharmacy-growth) demand environment.
FY2026 catalyst is Anthem-Blue-Cross-Blue-Shield + emerging-Medicare-Advantage + emerging-Medicaid + emerging-Carelon-Health-Services + multi-cycle-disciplined-bolt-on-Health-Insurance-and-Carelon-Health-Services-acquisitions + Gail-K-Boudreaux-strategic-execution.
Competes in US-Health-Insurance space with UnitedHealth Group (UNH + UnitedHealth-Group-largest-US-Health-Insurance-and-Optum + 2018-DaVita-Medical-Group-acquired-Optum + 2023-Amedisys-AMED-acquisition-emerging + 2024-Cigna-Express-Scripts-emerging-prospective-deal), CVS Caremark/Aetna (CVS + CVS-Health-Aetna-Health-Insurance + 2018-Aetna-acquired-CVS + 2023-Oak-Street-Health-acquired-CVS + 2024-MinuteClinic-and-Oak-Street-Health-CVS-emerging), Cigna Group (CI + Cigna-Health-Insurance-and-Evernorth-Health-Services-and-Express-Scripts + 2018-Express-Scripts-acquired-Cigna + 2024-Cigna-Express-Scripts-and-UnitedHealth-emerging-prospective-deal-rumor + 2024-VillageMD-Cigna-Evernorth-acquired-emerging), Humana (HUM + Humana-Medicare-Advantage-Largest-Pure-Play + 2024-Humana-Medicare-Advantage-margin-stress), Centene (CNC + Centene-Medicaid-Largest-Pure-Play + 2022-Magellan-Health-acquired-Centene + 2024-Centene-emerging), Molina Healthcare (MOH + Molina-Medicaid-and-Medicare-and-ACA-Marketplace), HCSC-Health-Care-Service-Corporation (private + HCSC-Blue-Cross-Blue-Shield-Multi-State-Illinois-Texas-Oklahoma-New-Mexico-Montana-Highest-Member-Private-Health-Insurance + 2024-Cigna-Medicare-Advantage-acquired-HCSC), GuideWell-Florida-Blue (private + GuideWell-Florida-Blue-Cross-Blue-Shield-Florida-private), Blue Shield of California (private + Blue-Shield-of-California-California-private), CareSource (private + CareSource-Medicaid-Multi-State-private), Independence Health Group (private + Independence-Health-Group-Pennsylvania-Blue-Cross-private), Highmark Health (private + Highmark-Blue-Cross-Blue-Shield-Pennsylvania-Delaware-West-Virginia-Western-NY-private), BlueCross BlueShield of Tennessee (private + BlueCross-BlueShield-of-Tennessee-private), Premera Blue Cross (private + Premera-Blue-Cross-Washington-Alaska-private), Regence BlueCross BlueShield Plans (private + Regence-Blue-Cross-Blue-Shield-Oregon-Washington-Idaho-Utah-private), Kaiser Permanente (private + Kaiser-Permanente-Integrated-Health-System-and-Insurance-largest-private-Integrated-Health), Triple-S Management (Innovacare-Health-private-acquired 2022 + Triple-S-Puerto-Rico + Innovacare-Health-Triple-S-Puerto-Rico-Health-Insurance), Bright Health Group (NeueHealth-NEUE-renamed 2024 + Bright-Health-bankrupt-Insurance-Operations + 2024-NeueHealth-renamed + 2024-NeueHealth-emerging-Take-Private-by-NEA-and-Bain-Capital-Ventures), NeueHealth (NEUE + Bright-Health-renamed 2024 + 2024-NEA-and-Bain-Capital-Ventures-Take-Private-emerging), Oscar Health (OSCR + Oscar-Health-ACA-Marketplace + 2024-Mark-Bertolini-and-Aetna-Founder-Family-CEO + emerging-2024-Oscar-Profitability); private-equity-Health-Insurance Apollo Global Management (APO + Apollo-Health-Insurance), Carlyle Group (CG), Bain Capital (private + Bain-Capital-Ventures-NeueHealth + Bain-Capital-Healthcare), KKR (KKR + KKR-Health-Insurance), Blackstone (BX), CD&R-Clayton Dubilier & Rice (private), Veritas Capital (private + Veritas-Healthcare + Veritas-EAG-Inc + Veritas-Cotiviti-Healthcare-Analytics-and-Risk-Adjustment), Genstar Capital (private + Genstar-Healthcare), American Securities (private), CCMP Capital (private), Stone Point Capital (private + Stone-Point-Insurance-and-Financial-Services-and-Healthcare), Lovell Minnick Partners (private), Hellman & Friedman (private + Hellman-Friedman-Healthcare), Silver Lake (private), TPG (TPG + TPG-Healthcare), Reverence Capital Partners (private), Warburg Pincus (private + Warburg-Pincus-Healthcare-largest), Ares Management (ARES), Centerbridge Partners (private), GTCR (private + GTCR-Healthcare), Linden Capital Partners (private + Linden-Healthcare), Avista Capital (private + Avista-Healthcare), NEA-New-Enterprise-Associates (NEA-private + NEA-Healthcare-and-Tech-NEA-NeueHealth-Take-Private-emerging-2024).
Deep-Dive 2: Gail-K-Boudreaux + Multi-Decade Compounder Thesis + 14-State-Blue-Cross-Blue-Shield-License
The second deep-dive — Gail-K-Boudreaux + 2017-CEO + 14-State-Blue-Cross-Blue-Shield-License + multi-decade compounder thesis — covers distinctive multi-cycle Gail-K-Boudreaux-CEO (~30+ year longtime-Health-Insurance-and-UnitedHealth-and-Aetna-and-Wellpoint-veteran) expertise + multi-cycle-Elevance-Health-Capital-Management leadership-continuity, 1944-Anthem-Insurance-Mutual-of-Indiana-founding + 2001-NYSE-Anthem-Inc-IPO + 2004-WellPoint-Health-Networks-merged + 2014-WellPoint-renamed-Anthem-Inc + 2022-Anthem-Inc-renamed-Elevance-Health-Inc-ELV + 2024-Carelon-Health-Services-growth transformational-platform + multi-cycle-disciplined-bolt-on-Health-Insurance-and-Carelon-Health-Services-acquisitions, emerging-multi-cycle US-Health-Insurance-and-Medicare-Advantage-Aging-Demographic + emerging-Medicaid + emerging-Commercial-Group-Employer + emerging-Carelon-Health-Services-and-CarelonRx + emerging-GLP-1-Anti-Obesity-Drug-Coverage structural-tailwinds.
Gail K. Boudreaux CEO leadership: CEO since 2017 + ~30+ year longtime-Health-Insurance-and-UnitedHealth-and-Aetna-and-Wellpoint-veteran providing distinctive multi-cycle-operational-discipline + multi-cycle-strategic-direction + 2017-CEO-transition + 2022-Anthem-Inc-renamed-Elevance-Health-Inc-ELV + 2024-Carelon-Health-Services-growth-integration execution + multi-cycle-Anthem-Blue-Cross-Blue-Shield + emerging-Medicare-Advantage + emerging-Medicaid + emerging-Carelon-Health-Services-and-CarelonRx expertise.
1944-Anthem-Insurance-Mutual-of-Indiana + 2001-NYSE-Anthem-Inc-IPO + 2004-WellPoint-Health-Networks-Merged + 2014-WellPoint-Renamed-Anthem-Inc + 2022-Anthem-Inc-Renamed-Elevance-Health-Inc-ELV transformational-platform: distinctive substantial 1944-Anthem-Insurance-Mutual-of-Indiana-Founder + 2001-NYSE-Anthem-Inc-IPO + 2004-substantial-WellPoint-Health-Networks-acquired-Anthem-WellPoint-Inc-merged ($16.5B providing California-Blue-Cross-and-multi-state-Blue-Cross-Blue-Shield) + 2014-WellPoint-renamed-Anthem-Inc + 2022-Anthem-Inc-renamed-Elevance-Health-Inc-ELV + 2024-Carelon-Health-Services-growth providing distinctive multi-cycle Elevance-Health-and-emerging-multi-cycle-Elevance-Health.
Multi-cycle reliable-and-emerging-growing-dividend + multi-cycle-substantial-share-buyback: distinctive multi-cycle reliable-and-emerging-growing-dividend (~$6.40/yr providing ~1.5-2.2% yield, ~15-20% payout providing multi-cycle reliable-and-emerging-growing dividend-track-record ~14+ year continuous) + multi-cycle-substantial-share-buyback ($2.5-5.0B/yr providing multi-cycle-substantial-share-buyback discipline).
Multi-decade compounder thesis combines distinctive multi-cycle Elevance-Health-and-Indianapolis-IN ~81+ year heritage (founded 1944 + 2001 NYSE-Anthem-Inc-IPO + 2004 WellPoint-merged + 2014-WellPoint-renamed-Anthem-Inc + 2017-Gail-K-Boudreaux-CEO + 2022-Anthem-Inc-renamed-Elevance-Health-Inc-ELV), ~104,000+ employees + ~14-State-Blue-Cross-Blue-Shield-License-Office, 2001-NYSE-IPO + 2004-WellPoint + 2022-Elevance-Health-renamed + 2024-Carelon-Health-Services-growth + multi-cycle-disciplined-bolt-on-Health-Insurance-and-Carelon-Health-Services-acquisitions, Gail K. Boudreaux + Former-UnitedHealth-and-Aetna-and-Wellpoint expertise, multi-cycle reliable-and-emerging-growing-dividend (~14+ year continuous) + multi-cycle-substantial-share-buyback + IG-substantial-Health-Insurance balance-sheet, emerging-Anthem-Blue-Cross-Blue-Shield + emerging-Medicare-Advantage + emerging-Medicaid + emerging-Carelon-Health-Services + emerging-CarelonRx + emerging-GLP-1-Anti-Obesity-Drug-Coverage structural-tailwinds.
Consolidated Capital Position + Balance Sheet
Capital position is IG-equivalent (A2/A to A3/A-), dividend-reliable-and-emerging-growing + multi-cycle-substantial-share-buyback, conservative-and-multi-cycle-disciplined-and-strong-capital-focused: net debt ~$28-31B (~2.0-2.5x leverage), A2/A to A3/A- equivalent (multi-cycle-IG-substantial-Health-Insurance), $7.5-10.0B cash + undrawn revolver liquidity, $6.40/yr regular dividend (~1.5-2.2% yield, ~15-20% payout, ~14+ year continuous) + ~$2.5-5.0B/yr substantial-share-buyback + multi-cycle-disciplined-bolt-on-Health-Insurance-and-Carelon-Health-Services-acquisitions + emerging-Anthem-Blue-Cross-Blue-Shield-and-Carelon-Health-Services capex, ~225-228M shares + multi-cycle-substantial-share-buyback.
Key Core Metrics
| Metric | FY2025E Range | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ~$180-200B | Health-Benefits + Carelon-Health-Services |
| Revenue YoY Growth | ~3-7% | Emerging-multi-cycle-Health-Insurance-and-Carelon-Health-Services-growth |
| Adjusted EBITDA | ~$11.5-13.5B | ~6-7% margins Health-Insurance-Managed-Care economics |
| Adjusted EPS | ~$35-42 | Multi-cycle-Health-Insurance |
| Employee Count | ~104,000+ | Indianapolis-IN-HQ + 14-State-Blue-Cross-Blue-Shield-License-Office |
| Health-Benefits Revenue Share | ~84-87% | Largest-business |
| Carelon-Health-Services Revenue Share | ~13-16% | Multi-cycle-emerging-CarelonRx-and-CarelonInsights-and-CarelonGlobal-Solutions |
| Member Count | ~47-50M | 14-State-Blue-Cross-Blue-Shield-License |
| Net Debt | ~$28-31B | ~2.0-2.5x leverage |
| Credit Rating | A2/A to A3/A- | Multi-cycle-IG-substantial-Health-Insurance |
| Dividend | ~$6.40/yr | ~1.5-2.2% yield, ~14+ year continuous |
| Buyback | ~$2.5-5.0B/yr | Multi-cycle-substantial discipline |
| Shares Outstanding | ~225-228M | Multi-cycle-substantial-share-buyback |
Market Evaluation
At ~$380-475 per share, equity value ~$85.5-108.0B, EV ~$115-140B, providing ~~10-14x EPS and ~~9-12x EV/EBITDA — typical-large-cap-Health-Insurance multiple consistent with multi-cycle 2001-NYSE-Anthem-Inc-IPO + 2004-WellPoint-Health-Networks-merged + 2014-WellPoint-renamed-Anthem-Inc + 2017-Gail-K-Boudreaux-CEO + 2022-Anthem-Inc-renamed-Elevance-Health-Inc-ELV + 2024-Carelon-Health-Services-growth + emerging-multi-cycle Anthem-Blue-Cross-Blue-Shield + emerging-Medicare-Advantage-Aging-Demographic + emerging-Medicaid + emerging-Carelon-Health-Services + emerging-CarelonRx + emerging-GLP-1-Anti-Obesity-Drug-Coverage + multi-cycle-reliable-and-emerging-growing-dividend (~14+ year continuous) tailwinds.
Base case: Anthem-Blue-Cross-Blue-Shield constructive + emerging-Medicare-Advantage + emerging-Medicaid + emerging-Carelon-Health-Services + revenue $190-210B + adj. EBITDA $12.5-14.5B + adj. EPS $38-46 + dividend hiked + multi-cycle-substantial-share-buyback + ~5-15% return.
Bull case: Anthem-Blue-Cross-Blue-Shield accelerates + emerging-Medicare-Advantage inflects + emerging-Medicaid accelerates + emerging-Carelon-Health-Services inflects-substantially + emerging-CarelonRx accelerates + revenue $200-220B + adj. EBITDA $13.5-15.5B + adj. EPS $42-50 + dividend hiked + selective-M&A + emerging-strategic-acquisition-target (UnitedHealth-Group + CVS-Caremark-Aetna + Cigna-Evernorth + Humana + Centene + Molina + HCSC + GuideWell-Florida-Blue + Blue-Shield-of-California + Independence-Health-Group + Highmark + BCBS-Tennessee + Premera + Regence + Kaiser-Permanente + Oscar-Health + NeueHealth-NEA-Bain + private-equity-Apollo-Carlyle-Bain-KKR-Blackstone-CDR-Veritas-Genstar-American-Securities-CCMP-Stone-Point-Lovell-Minnick-Hellman-Friedman-Silver-Lake-TPG-Reverence-Warburg-Pincus-Ares-Centerbridge-GTCR-Linden-Avista-NEA interest) + re-rate 12-18x + 25-50%+ return + takeout-premium-upside.
Bear case: Anthem-Blue-Cross-Blue-Shield stresses + Medicare-Advantage-MLR-stresses + Medicaid-Redetermination-stresses + adj. EPS $24-30 + de-rate 7-10x + flat-to-substantially-negative.
FY2026 turns on Anthem-Blue-Cross-Blue-Shield + emerging-Medicare-Advantage + emerging-Medicaid + emerging-Carelon-Health-Services + emerging-CarelonRx + multi-cycle-disciplined-bolt-on-Health-Insurance-and-Carelon-Health-Services-acquisitions + Gail-K-Boudreaux-strategic-execution.
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