Edison International 2025-26: Core EPS $6.55, SB 254 $18B Fund
FY25 revenue $19.32B (+10%); op income $7.09B (+142%); NI $4.56B (+195%); EPS $11.55. Core EPS $6.55 (above guide). 2025 GRC authorized $9.7B base revenue. SB 254 created up to $18B wildfire continuation account. TKM settlement $1.6B + Woolsey $2B securitization. FY26 core EPS $5.90-$6.20; FY27 $6.25-$6.65; 5-7% growth extended to 2030; no equity needs through 2030.
Key takeaways
- SB 254 created up to $18B wildfire continuation account. California legislative reform passed September 2025 — provides cost recovery + securitization for wildfires ignited after Sept 19. Phase 2 report April 2026 evaluates long-term reforms. Structural overhang reset.
- Core EPS $6.55 FY25 above guide. Reaffirmed 5-7% core EPS CAGR; extended to 2030 (vs 2028 prior). FY26 $5.90-$6.20; FY27 $6.25-$6.65; FY28 reaffirmed. 2030 long-term EPS algorithm intact.
- No equity needs through 2030. Strong statement — TKM securitization ($1.6B) + Woolsey settlement ($2B) provide capital relief. Extended 4-year capital plan $28-29B at 7-8% rate base growth.
- 2025 GRC authorized $9.7B base revenue. Approved investments in wildfire mitigation, safety, grid modernization. Final decision received Q3; provides regulatory visibility through 2028.
- Eaton Fire still the unresolved overhang. Investigation continues. Wildfire recovery compensation program launched fall 2025. SCE entered settlement with insurance claimant; SB 254 fund + AB 1054 framework provide cost recovery mechanism.
Business
Edison International is the holding company for Southern California Edison (SCE) — California's second-largest utility serving 5M+ households + businesses. Two reporting segments:
- SCE (Southern California Edison) (~95% of revenue / earnings). Regulated electric utility. 2025 GRC authorized $9.7B base revenue. $7B 2025 capital plan; $28-29B 4-year plan. AMI 2.0 application + Woolsey securitization application pending.
- EIX Parent and Other (~5%). Holding company; higher interest expense headwind FY25.
Strategic moves FY25:
- SB 254 passed September 19 2025 — up to $18B wildfire continuation account
- 2025 GRC authorized $9.7B base revenue
- TKM Settlement $1.6B recovery approved by CPUC
- Woolsey Fire intervenor settlement ~$2B (subject to approval)
- Wildfire recovery compensation program launched fall 2025
- 6,800+ miles of covered conductor deployed
- Goal: 90% high-fire-risk distribution lines hardened by year-end
- Updated public safety power shutoff criteria
- Pedro Pizarro CEO + leadership transitions (Vanessa Chang retired; Adam Umanoff retiring)
- Chonda Nwamu joined as new general counsel
- Load growth: near-term CAGR up to 3%; sales to nearly double in next 2 decades
FY25 financial performance
| Metric (FY) | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($B) | 17.22 | 16.34 | 17.60 | 19.32 |
| Revenue YoY | n/a | -5% | +8% | +10% |
| Op income ($B) | 1.48 | 2.63 | 2.93 | 7.09 |
| Op margin | 8.6% | 16.1% | 16.6% | 36.7% |
| Net income ($B) | 0.82 | 1.41 | 1.55 | 4.56 |
| Diluted EPS ($) | 1.60 | 3.11 | 3.31 | 11.55 |
| Core EPS ($) | n/a | n/a | ~$5.10 | 6.55 |
| FCF ($B) | -2.56 | -2.05 | -0.69 | -0.72 |
| Capex ($B) | -5.78 | -5.45 | -5.71 | -6.52 |
| Total debt ($B) | 33.10 | 35.31 | 37.76 | 42.59 |
| Dividends ($B) | -1.15 | -1.22 | -1.29 | -1.38 |
| Buyback ($M) | 0 | -289 | -856 | -1,696 |
The earnings progression: revenue +10% on rate increases + load growth; op income $7.09B (massive jump on TKM settlement gain + cost recovery)— the $4.56B NI reflects unusual items + base operations. Core EPS $6.55 is the cleaner operational signal.
Capex stepped to $-6.5B (~34% of revenue, +14% YoY) — wildfire mitigation + grid modernization. Total debt $42.6B (+13% YoY) reflects capital plan + wildfire spend.
Buybacks $-1.7B FY25 (vs $-856M FY24, +98%) — cash return enabled by securitization + capital plan funding.
Capital allocation
- Capex: $-6.52B FY25 (+14% YoY).
- Dividends: $-1.38B FY25 (+7% YoY); ~$3.30/share annual.
- Buybacks: $-1.70B FY25 (+98% YoY).
- Debt: $42.59B (+$4.83B YoY).
- Equity needs: None through 2030 (per Q4 2025 disclosure).
- Securitization: TKM $1.6B + Woolsey $2B in process.
FY26-30 outlook (per Q4 2025 call, 2026-02-18)
| Framework | Detail |
|---|---|
| FY26 core EPS | $5.90 to $6.20 |
| FY27 core EPS | $6.25 to $6.65 |
| FY28 core EPS | Reaffirmed at $6.74-$7.14 |
| LT core EPS growth | 5% to 7% through 2030 (extended from 2028) |
| Equity needs through 2030 | None |
| 4-year capital plan | $28B to $29B (rate base +7-8%) |
The "no equity needs through 2030" + extended 5-7% growth + securitization-funded capital plan = clean structural compounding.
Key risks
- Eaton Fire investigation outcomes. Probable material loss; liability not estimable yet. Settlement progress with insurance claimant Q3.
- SB 254 Phase 2 reforms (April 2026). Long-term reforms for equitably socializing climate-driven natural disaster risks — could change cost-recovery mechanism.
- AB 1054 framework changes. Discussions to enhance California regulatory framework for wildfire safety; outcome uncertain.
- Cost of capital proceedings. ROE adjustments affect financial projections.
- Securitization timing. TKM + Woolsey securitization proceeds depend on regulatory approval cadence.
- Affordability bills. California legislative discussion of bills that could raise/lower customer costs; complex impact.
Bottom line
EIX FY25 is the wildfire structural reset year: SB 254 created $18B continuation account, TKM $1.6B + Woolsey $2B securitization in process, 2025 GRC authorized $9.7B base revenue, core EPS $6.55 above guide, 5-7% growth extended to 2030 with no equity needs. Risks remain on Eaton Fire investigation + Phase 2 reforms + regulatory cadence. Quality California utility mid-multi-year wildfire-recovery compounding cycle with clearer path to 2030.
Citations
- Edison International FY25 Form 10-K (filed February 2026, SEC EDGAR).
- EIX Q4 2025 earnings call, 2026-02-18 — core EPS $6.55 (above guide); FY26 $5.90-$6.20; FY27 $6.25-$6.65; FY28 reaffirmed; 5-7% growth extended to 2030; no equity needs through 2030; $28-29B 4-year capital plan.
- EIX Q3 2025 earnings call, 2025-10-28 — SB 254 passed (up to $18B wildfire fund); TKM Settlement $1.6B recovery approved; Woolsey settlement $2B; 2025 GRC authorized $9.7B base revenue; 6,800 miles covered conductor.
- EIX Q2 2025 earnings call, 2025-07-31 — Eaton Fire investigation ongoing; wildfire recovery compensation program launching fall 2025; SCE 2026-2028 wildfire mitigation plan $6.2B.
- EIX Q1 2025 earnings call, 2025-04-29 — TKM CPUC approval; 150+ circuit miles undergrounding in fire areas; new general counsel Chonda Nwamu.
- Internal financial_statements view (consolidated annual + cash flow + capital structure).