Equifax 2025-26: Revenue +7%, FY26 EPS $8.50 (+11%), Cloud Complete

FY25 revenue $6.07B (+7%); op income $1.10B (+5%); NI $660M (+9%); adjusted EPS $7.65; FCF $1.13B (+39%, above guide). Q4 segment performance — EWS: revenue +9%, EBITDA margins 51.3%, mortgage +10%, Twin active records +11% to 209M; diversified markets +11%. USIS: revenue +12%, EBITDA margins 30.3%, mortgage +33%. International: constant currency revenue +5%, EBITDA margins 31.6%. AI investment + new product innovation: Twin Indicator in mortgage, auto, card markets. Cloud transformation providing competitive advantages + driving operational efficiencies. EWS acquired Vault Verify. Total debt $5.09B (+2%); buyback $928M FY25 (newly active vs $0 FY24); dividend $233M (+21%). FY26 guide: total revenue +~10.6% reported / +10% CC; EPS midpoint $8.50 (+11%); EBITDA midpoint $2.122B (+~10%); FCF >$1B; cash conversion ≥100%; Q1 revenue ~$1.612B / EPS $1.68; ex-FICO mortgage royalties revenue mid-single-digit + EBITDA margins +75 bp.

Key takeaways

• Workforce Solutions (EWS) Q4 +9% revenue + 51.3% EBITDA margin — best-in-class data asset compounder. Equifax's Workforce Solutions segment, anchored by The Work Number employment + income database, delivered Q4 revenue +9% with 51.3% EBITDA margins — among the highest margins in any large-cap data services business globally. The data asset (Twin active records reached 209M, +11% YoY) creates structural network effects: more records = more verification queries = more revenue. Diversified markets (non-mortgage verification: government, talent, healthcare) +11% in Q4. Mortgage verification +10% Q4. Multi-year compounding setup with structural moat.

• USIS Q4 revenue +12% + EBITDA margins 30.3% + mortgage +33% — credit recovery + multi-product growth. US Information Solutions (USIS, the traditional consumer credit bureau) delivered Q4 revenue +12% with EBITDA margins expanding to 30.3%. Mortgage revenue +33% Q4 reflects credit cycle recovery + market share gains + the FICO mortgage royalty pass-through. Multi-product strength across non-mortgage credit, banking, telco, retail, and identity. Cloud-completed USIS infrastructure now driving operational efficiency.

• Cloud transformation complete; EWS Vault Verify acquired; AI Twin Indicator launches — multi-year platform reset. Equifax has been on a multi-year cloud transformation journey (~$2B+ investment) that is now structurally complete in USIS + International + EWS. The cloud platform enables (a) faster product launches (Twin Indicator across mortgage / auto / card), (b) operational efficiency (multi-year cost reduction), (c) AI integration (model training + inference at scale). EWS acquired Vault Verify (income/employment data) — extending The Work Number network. International cloud completion in progress.

• FY26 guide: revenue +10.6% reported / +10% CC; EPS $8.50 (+11%); EBITDA $2.122B (+~10%); FCF >$1B — sustained double-digit growth. Multiple metrics all guided to +10%+ growth. EPS $8.50 midpoint vs FY25 adj EPS $7.65 = +11%. EBITDA ~$2.122B = ~+10%. FCF >$1B with cash conversion ≥100%. Q1 FY26 revenue $1.612B / EPS $1.68. Note: FICO mortgage royalties create headline boost; ex-FICO royalties, organic revenue is mid-single-digit + EBITDA margins +75 bp.

• Buyback $928M (newly initiated) + $233M dividends (+21%) — capital return reset post-cloud capex. Capex $481M FY25 vs $612-625M earlier years — meaningful capex moderation as cloud transformation completes. With FCF $1.13B (+39%), Equifax initiated a $928M buyback program in FY25 (vs $0 in FY24, FY23, FY22). Combined with dividend +21% to $233M, total capital return $1.16B FY25 — a meaningful shift toward balanced capital return as cloud capex unwinds.

Business

Equifax Inc. is one of the world's three major consumer credit bureaus + global workforce + identity data services company, with three reporting segments:

• Workforce Solutions / EWS (~50% of revenue, highest margin): The Work Number employment + income verification database (209M Twin active records, +11% YoY). Mortgage + non-mortgage verification (government, talent, healthcare, financial services). Q4 revenue +9%, EBITDA margins 51.3%. Vault Verify acquired FY25.
• USIS (~30%): Traditional US consumer credit bureau. Mortgage + non-mortgage credit decisioning + identity + analytics. Q4 revenue +12%, EBITDA margins 30.3%. Mortgage +33% Q4.
• International (~20%): Canada, Latin America, Europe, Asia-Pacific consumer credit + business information. Q4 constant currency revenue +5%, EBITDA margins 31.6%.

Strategic moves FY25:

• Cloud transformation structurally complete in USIS + International + EWS
• AI Twin Indicator launched in mortgage, auto, card markets
• EWS Twin active records reached 209M (+11% YoY)
• EWS acquired Vault Verify
• USIS mortgage +33% Q4 (credit cycle + share gains)
• International cloud completion progress
• Buyback program newly initiated ($928M FY25)
• Dividend +21% to $233M
• FCF $1.13B (+39%, above guide)

FY25 financial performance

The earnings progression: revenue grew steadily from $5.12B (FY22) to $6.07B (FY25, +18% over 3 years). Op margin compressed slightly from 20.6% (FY22) to 18.0% (FY25) reflecting cloud transition costs + investment ramp. Underlying earnings power evident in adj EPS $7.65 FY25 vs GAAP $5.32 — gap reflects amortization of acquired intangibles + cloud transition costs.

FCF inflection: $133M (FY22) → $516M (FY23) → $813M (FY24) → $1.13B (FY25, +39%). Multi-year FCF acceleration as capex moderated. Capex $481M FY25 (-6% YoY) reflects cloud completion.

Capital allocation

• Capex: $-481M FY25 (-6% YoY).
• Dividends: $-233M FY25 (+21% YoY).
• Buybacks: $-928M FY25 (newly initiated; $0 FY22-24).
• Total capital return FY25: $1.16B.
• Total debt: $5.09B (+2% YoY).
• FCF: $1.13B FY25 (+39% YoY).

FY26 outlook (per Q4 2025 call, 2026-02-04)

Management noted continued AI investment + new product innovation (Twin Indicator), cloud transformation benefits + operational efficiencies, EWS strength + Vault Verify integration, USIS mortgage + multi-product, International cloud completion.

Key risks

Mortgage cycle dependency. Mortgage verification (EWS) + mortgage credit (USIS) revenue depends on mortgage origination volumes. Multi-year cycles in mortgage origination create earnings volatility.

FICO mortgage royalty headwind. FICO mortgage royalty pass-through creates headline revenue boost in FY25/FY26 but also increases supplier cost (FICO charges credit bureaus more). Multi-year FICO pricing pass-through dynamics matter for net economics.

Twin record competitive landscape. Workforce Solutions / The Work Number is dominant but competitive: TransUnion (Experian alternatives), Talx legacy, Truework, Plaid Income, Argyle, others all compete in income/employment verification. Twin record growth + customer wins matter.

Credit bureau competitive landscape. Experian + TransUnion compete in USIS + International. Multi-region competitive intensity + pricing dynamics ongoing.

Regulatory landscape — CFPB + state consumer protection. US Consumer Financial Protection Bureau + state attorneys general consumer protection oversight create ongoing compliance + dispute resolution costs. Class action litigation possible.

Data breach / cybersecurity. Equifax suffered a major 2017 data breach. Multi-year data security + cybersecurity investments required. Any future breach creates significant litigation + regulatory + reputational risk.

International FX volatility. International segment ~20% of revenue; FX volatility creates translation impact.

Cloud transformation execution. Multi-year cloud migration is structurally complete but residual transformation costs + operational integration ongoing.

AI / data privacy regulation. EU AI Act + state-level privacy laws + data localization requirements create compliance costs.

M&A integration (Vault Verify + future). Multi-year M&A pipeline carries integration risk.

Customer concentration in mortgage segment. Mortgage lender + GSE customers concentrate in EWS + USIS; relationship dynamics matter.

Talent retention. Data engineering, AI, cybersecurity talent multi-year competitive market.

Macro credit / employment environment. Macro credit cycles + employment + lending volume all affect Equifax demand.

Pricing pressure. Customer consolidation (banks, lenders) + GPO dynamics + government procurement all pressure pricing.

Bottom line

Equifax FY25 is the multi-segment growth + cloud transformation completion + capital allocation reset year: revenue $6.07B (+7%); op income $1.10B (+5%); NI $660M (+9%); adj EPS $7.65; FCF $1.13B (+39%, above guide). Q4 EWS revenue +9% / EBITDA margins 51.3%; diversified markets +11%; mortgage +10%; Twin active records +11% to 209M. USIS Q4 revenue +12% / EBITDA margins 30.3% / mortgage +33%. International CC revenue +5% / EBITDA margins 31.6%. AI Twin Indicator launches. Cloud transformation complete. EWS acquired Vault Verify. Buyback newly initiated $928M; dividend +21% to $233M; total capital return $1.16B.

FY26 guide: revenue +10.6% reported / +10% CC; EPS $8.50 (+11%); EBITDA $2.122B (+10%); FCF >$1B; cash conversion ≥100%. Q1 revenue ~$1.612B / EPS $1.68. Ex-FICO royalties: revenue mid-single-digit + EBITDA margins +75 bp.

The risks are real — mortgage cycle dependency, FICO mortgage royalty pass-through dynamics, Twin record competitive landscape (TransUnion, Truework, Plaid Income, Argyle), credit bureau competitive landscape (Experian, TransUnion), regulatory landscape (CFPB + state consumer protection), data breach / cybersecurity (post-2017 breach scrutiny), International FX volatility, cloud transformation residual execution, AI / data privacy regulation, M&A integration, customer concentration in mortgage segment, talent retention, macro credit / employment environment, pricing pressure.

But the structural thesis (one of three major US consumer credit bureaus + global workforce + identity data services + EWS Twin active records 209M (+11% YoY) + EWS EBITDA margins 51.3% + USIS revenue +12% Q4 + International CC +5% + Twin Indicator AI products + Vault Verify acquired + cloud transformation complete + multi-year M&A pipeline + buyback newly initiated $928M + dividend +21% + FY26 +10% revenue / +11% EPS / +10% EBITDA / >$1B FCF) is intact and FY25 confirms.

Quality global data + verification + credit bureau compounder mid-cycle, with structural data asset moat + cloud transformation complete + AI Twin Indicator products + multi-segment platform + buyback initiation + multi-year capital return acceleration. The FY25 +7% revenue + +39% FCF + Twin records 209M + EWS 51.3% margins + USIS +12% Q4 + cloud-completed + Vault Verify + AI Twin Indicator + FY26 +10% revenue + +11% EPS + buyback newly initiated $928M creates one of the cleaner credit / data services compounding setups for investors seeking exposure to credit bureau franchise + workforce data moat + AI productivity + capital return acceleration. The conservative FY26 framework + multi-segment diversification + AI Twin Indicator + cloud completion + multi-year M&A pipeline provides multiple paths to outperformance over a multi-year horizon. Mortgage cycle + regulatory + cybersecurity + competitive landscape remain ongoing risks, but the data asset moat + multi-segment diversification + cloud completion + capital return support continued compounding through cycles.

Citations

• Equifax Inc. FY25 Form 10-K (filed February 2026, SEC EDGAR).
• EFX Q4 2025 earnings call, 2026-02-04 — 2025 revenue $6.075B; adj EPS $7.65; FCF $1.025B (above guide); EWS Q4 revenue +9%, EBITDA margins 51.3%; diversified markets +11%; mortgage +10% Q4; Twin active records +11% to 209M; USIS Q4 revenue +12%, EBITDA margins 30.3%, mortgage +33%; International CC revenue +5%, EBITDA margins 31.6%; AI Twin Indicator launches in mortgage / auto / card; cloud transformation providing competitive advantages + operational efficiencies; EWS acquired Vault Verify; significant cash returned to shareholders; FY26 revenue +~10.6% reported / +10% CC; EPS midpoint $8.50 (+11%); EBITDA midpoint ~$2.122B (+~10%); FCF >$1B; cash conversion ≥100%; Q1 2026 revenue ~$1.612B; Q1 EPS $1.68; ex-FICO mortgage royalties revenue mid-single-digit + EBITDA margins +75 bp.
• EFX Q3 / Q2 / Q1 2025 earnings calls — supporting EWS Twin record growth + USIS mortgage trajectory + International cloud completion progression.
• Internal financial_statements view (consolidated annual + cash flow + capital structure).