EBAYConsumer CyclicalInternet Retail / Marketplace·Sep 3, 2026·5 min read

[EBAY] eBay Thesis 2026: GMV Returns to Growth, Depop Acquisition Reshapes Demographics

eBay FY25 (Dec 31, 2025) at $11.10B revenue (+8%). NI $2.03B; EPS $4.34 (+10%); non-GAAP EPS $5.52 (+13%). GMV ~$80B (+6%); US GMV +10%. Focus categories +12%. C2C ~25% of GMV reinvigorated. Recommerce >40% of GMV. Depop acquired (~$1.2B). $3B capital return. Q1 FY26 GMV $21.5-21.9B (+10-12% FX-neutral), revenue $3-$3.05B, non-GAAP EPS $1.53-$1.59.

eBay 2025-26: GMV +6%, Depop $1.2B Acquired, FY26 Q1 +13-15%

FY25 revenue $11.10B (+8%); Op income $2.28B; NI $2.03B (+3%); EPS $4.34 (+10%). GMV nearly $80B (+6% globally); US GMV +10%. Focus categories +12%. C2C ~25% of GMV with reinvigorated growth. Recommerce >40% of GMV (+10%). Acquired Depop ~$1.2B cash. Returned ~$3B to shareholders. Q1 FY26: GMV $21.5-$21.9B (+10-12% FX-neutral); revenue $3-$3.05B (+13-15% FX-neutral); non-GAAP EPS $1.53-$1.59.

Key takeaways

  • GMV inflection. Global GMV nearly $80B (+6% FY25); US GMV +10%. After multiple years of stagnant or declining GMV, FY25 was the inflection year.
  • Focus category strategy paying off. "Focus category" GMV (handpicked verticals like luxury, sneakers, parts/accessories) grew +12% — material outperformance vs core. Strategy is working.
  • C2C reinvigorated. C2C now ~25% of GMV with reinvigorated growth. Depop acquisition ($1.2B cash) extends C2C reach into Gen Z + alternative fashion.
  • Recommerce 40%+ of GMV. Sustainable / pre-owned commerce continuing to expand. eBay positioned as premium recommerce destination.
  • Q1 FY26 guide accelerating. GMV $21.5-$21.9B implies +10-12% FX-neutral growth; revenue +13-15%; EPS $1.53-$1.59. Materially faster than full-year FY25 +6%.

Business

eBay is a global online marketplace facilitating C2C + B2C commerce. Single segment business with two key revenue lines:

  • Marketplace (Take rate on GMV) (~85% of revenue): Transaction fees + final value fees + eBay International fees. ~135M+ active buyers globally.
  • Advertising + Financial Services + Managed Shipping (~15% of revenue): Advertising reached ~$2B FY25. Promoted Listings + Internal Ads + Display. Managed Shipping growing.

Strategic positioning: eBay has refocused around (a) Focus categories (Luxury / Sneakers / Parts / Trading Cards / Refurbished) where eBay differentiates vs Amazon, (b) C2C marketplace + Depop integration, (c) Recommerce / sustainable commerce positioning, (d) Advertising monetization.

Depop acquisition (closed 2025, ~$1.2B cash): Gen Z fashion resale marketplace. Strengthens eBay's C2C value proposition + reaches younger demographic.

FY25 financial performance

Metric (FY)202320242025
Revenue ($B)10.1110.2811.10
Gross profit ($B)7.287.407.93
Op income ($B)1.942.322.28
Op margin19.2%22.6%20.5%
EBITDA ($B)4.372.862.85
Net income ($B)2.771.982.03
Diluted EPS ($)5.193.944.34
Non-GAAP EPS ($)$4.74$4.89$5.52
FCF ($B)1.971.961.66
Capex ($M)-456-458-525
Total debt ($B)8.237.867.38
Dividends ($M)-528-533-531
Buyback ($B)-1.40-3.15-2.50

The earnings print: Revenue +8% / GMV +6% / non-GAAP EPS +13% to $5.52. Non-GAAP op income +7% to nearly $3.1B. GAAP NI $2.03B; the stronger non-GAAP read reflects exclusion of M&A + restructuring.

Capital return $3.0B FY25 (~$2.5B buyback + $531M dividend). Total debt $7.38B (-$0.48B YoY).

Capital allocation

  • Capex: $-525M FY25 (4.7% of revenue). Light infrastructure investment.
  • Dividends: $-531M FY25 (held flat).
  • Buybacks: $-2.50B FY25 (vs $-3.15B FY24). Continued material capital return.
  • M&A: Depop acquired ~$1.2B cash.
  • Debt: $7.38B (-$0.48B YoY) — paydown.

FY26 outlook (per Q4 2025 call, 2026-02-18)

FY26 Q1 + Full YearGuide
Q1 GMV$21.5-$21.9B (+10-12% FX-neutral)
Q1 revenue$3.0-$3.05B (+13-15% FX-neutral)
Q1 non-GAAP op income growth+11-16% YoY
Q1 non-GAAP EPS$1.53-$1.59
Full-year FY26 GMV growthSimilar to Q1
Depop integrationIn progress

The +10-12% Q1 FX-neutral GMV growth is dramatic acceleration vs FY25 +6%. Reflects: Depop contribution + Focus categories accelerating + C2C continued reinvigoration + advertising compounding.

Key risks

  • GMV cycle persistence: After inflection year, FY26 needs to sustain +10%+ FX-neutral. Recession would compress.
  • Amazon competition: eBay's Focus category strategy depends on differentiation vs Amazon. Continued share defense required.
  • C2C marketplace dynamics: Depop integration + C2C category profitability. Cross-sell + retention KPIs.
  • Advertising mix: Advertising at $2B is ~18% of revenue. Continued growth needed.
  • Take rate compression: Pricing power for eBay marketplace fees; sellers always have alternatives.
  • FX: Major USD revenue but international GMV; FX volatility.

Bottom line

eBay FY25 is the GMV inflection + Depop acquisition + Focus category strategy validation year. GMV +6% globally / +10% US, focus categories +12%, recommerce >40% with +10% growth, advertising $2B. Q1 FY26 guide implies dramatic FX-neutral acceleration to +10-12% GMV / +13-15% revenue. Capital return $3B FY25. Risks are GMV cycle + Amazon competition + take rate. The structural read: refocused marketplace platform + Depop reach + C2C reinvigoration + advertising compounding.

Citations

  • eBay Inc. FY25 Form 10-K (filed February 2026, SEC EDGAR).
  • eBay Q4 2025 earnings call, 2026-02-18 — GMV ~$80B (+6%), US GMV +10%, focus category +12%, C2C ~25% of GMV reinvigorated, recommerce >40% of GMV (+10%), advertising ~$2B; Depop acquired ~$1.2B; capital return ~$3B; FY26 Q1 guide (GMV $21.5-21.9B / +10-12% FX-neutral, revenue $3.0-3.05B / +13-15% FX-neutral, non-GAAP op income +11-16%, non-GAAP EPS $1.53-$1.59).
  • Internal financial_statements view (consolidated annual + cash flow + capital structure).
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