Dominion 2025-26: CVOW 70% Complete, FY26 EPS $3.40-$3.60
FY25 revenue $16.51B (+14%); Op income $4.41B (+36%); NI $3.00B (+41%); EPS $3.45 (+41%). Operating EPS $3.42 (above guide midpoint); operating EPS ex-RNG 45Z credits $3.33. Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind (CVOW) over 70% complete, on track for first power by March 2026. FY26 guide: operating EPS ex-45Z $3.40-$3.60 (midpoint $3.50), total operating $3.57. Long-term: 5-7% EPS CAGR, expect upper half from 2028. Capital plan $50B → ~$72B+.
Key takeaways
- Operating EPS above guide midpoint. $3.42 operating / $3.33 ex-RNG 45Z credits — both above midpoint. Strong execution against priorities.
- Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind 70% complete. First power by March 2026 — major milestone. 2.6 GW project; $9.8B+ capex through completion. The defining capex cycle.
- FY26 EPS $3.40-$3.60 ex-45Z. Total operating EPS $3.57 midpoint. Long-term 5-7% EPS CAGR with upper-half expected from 2028 (post-CVOW operational).
- Capital plan increased from $50B to ~$72B+. Major upward revision reflecting confirmed/endorsed generation needs in Virginia (data centers + electrification + reshoring) — same dynamic AEP is seeing.
- Credit metrics strong. Moody's full-year CFO pre-working-capital to debt ~100bp above downgrade threshold. Capital structure flexibility for ramped capex.
Business
Dominion Energy is one of the largest US regulated electric + gas utilities, serving ~7M customers across Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Ohio, and Utah. Three reporting segments + corporate:
- Dominion Energy Virginia (~50% of revenue): Vertically-integrated electric utility serving Virginia + Northern Virginia (data center alley). The fastest-growing customer base in US utilities — driven by hyperscaler data center capacity additions.
- Dominion Energy South Carolina (~10% of revenue): Electric + gas utility.
- Dominion Energy Gas Distribution (~15% of revenue): Natural gas distribution in Ohio + Utah + parts of Virginia.
- Contracted Energy (~25% of revenue): Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind (CVOW) + Millstone Power Station (nuclear) + other contracted assets.
Strategic positioning post-portfolio-simplification: focused on regulated Virginia utility + CVOW (offshore wind) + smaller adjacent regulated operations. Sold gas distribution Ohio + utility-LDC in prior years.
Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind: 2.6 GW project off coast of Virginia Beach, world's largest offshore wind farm under construction. 70% complete exit FY25; first power by March 2026. ~$9.8B total capex.
FY25 financial performance
| Metric (FY) | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($B) | 14.39 | 14.46 | 16.51 |
| Gross profit ($B) | 6.96 | 6.92 | 8.09 |
| Op income ($B) | 3.41 | 3.25 | 4.41 |
| Op margin | 23.7% | 22.5% | 26.7% |
| EBITDA ($B) | 7.53 | 6.71 | 8.02 |
| Net income ($B) | 2.03 | 2.12 | 3.00 |
| Diluted EPS ($) | 2.29 | 2.44 | 3.45 |
| Operating EPS | $3.15 | $2.78 | $3.42 |
| FCF ($B) | -3.66 | -7.41 | -7.28 |
| Capex ($B) | -10.24 | -12.43 | -12.64 |
| Total debt ($B) | 44.24 | 41.75 | 48.94 |
| Dividends ($B) | -2.23 | -2.24 | -2.28 |
The earnings print: Revenue +14%, op margin +420bp to 26.7%, EPS +41%. Operating EPS $3.42 above guide.
Capex stepped to $-12.64B FY25 (76% of revenue) — extreme capital intensity reflecting CVOW + Virginia rate base growth. Total debt jumped to $48.94B (+$7.2B YoY) funding capex. FCF -$7.28B reflects capex + dividends > operating cash flow.
Capital allocation
- Capex: $-12.64B FY25 — heavy. FY26+ capital plan $72B+.
- Dividends: $-2.28B FY25, +2% YoY.
- Buybacks: zero.
- Debt management: $48.94B (+$7.2B YoY) funding capex.
- Credit metrics: Moody's CFO pre-working-capital to debt ~100bp above downgrade threshold.
FY26 outlook (per Q4 2025 call, 2026-02-23)
| FY26 guide | Range / point |
|---|---|
| Operating EPS ex-RNG 45Z credits | $3.40-$3.60 (midpoint $3.50) |
| Total operating EPS guidance midpoint | $3.57 |
| Long-term EPS CAGR (off 2025 midpoint $3.30) | 5-7% annually |
| Expected to deliver upper half of range from 2028 | (post-CVOW operational) |
| Capital investment plan | Increased from $50B to ~$72B+ |
The $72B capital plan is the structural read — Virginia data center + Texas industrial + grid reliability driving multi-decade capex visibility.
Key risks
- CVOW execution + cost overruns: 30% remaining; first power by March 2026. Cost overruns or schedule slip would compress earnings recovery.
- Regulatory rate cases: Virginia data center rate structure + ratepayer cost recovery on $72B capex.
- Data center load conversion: Customers must energize as planned.
- Credit rating: $48.9B debt + heavy capex; rating agencies watching.
- Generation transition: Coal retirements + gas additions + renewables build-out execution.
- Interest rates: Utility valuations + debt cost sensitive.
Bottom line
Dominion FY25 is the CVOW + capital ramp year. Operating EPS $3.42 above guide; CVOW 70% complete, first power March 2026; capital plan $50B → $72B+; long-term 5-7% EPS CAGR. The structural read: dominant Virginia utility + offshore wind + data center load growth. Risks are CVOW execution + regulatory + credit rating + interest rates.
Citations
- Dominion Energy Inc. FY25 Form 10-K (filed February 2026, SEC EDGAR).
- Dominion Q4 2025 earnings call, 2026-02-23 — operating EPS $3.42 (above guide midpoint), CVOW 70% complete + first power by March 2026; FY26 guide ex-45Z $3.40-$3.60 midpoint $3.50, total $3.57; long-term 5-7% EPS CAGR off 2025 midpoint $3.30, upper half expected from 2028; capital investment increased from $50B to ~$72B+.
- Internal financial_statements view (consolidated annual + cash flow + capital structure).