CMS Energy 2025-26: Adj EPS $3.61, $24B Capex, 10.5% Rate Base
FY25 revenue $8.54B (+14%); op income $1.73B (+16%); NI $1.07B (+7%); EPS $3.53; Adj EPS $3.61 (above guide). Large load tariff approved Nov 2025. 20-year renewable energy plan approved (~$14B customer investment opportunity by 2040). $24B 5-year utility customer investment plan (+$4B vs prior). FY26 adj EPS $3.83-$3.90 (+6-8%); LT 6-8% growth toward high end. 10.5% rate base growth through 2030.
Key takeaways
- Large load tariff approved November 2025. Provides certainty for data centers + benefits for existing customers. The structural data-center-load story enabled.
- 20-year renewable energy plan approved — ~$14B customer investment opportunity by 2040. Long-dated growth runway. Renewable + clean energy investments.
- $24B 5-year utility customer investment plan (+$4B vs prior). Includes increased electric generation + distribution system strengthening + gas investments. Drives 10.5% rate base growth through 2030.
- Adj EPS $3.61 FY25 above guide. FY26 adj EPS $3.83-$3.90 (+6-8% growth off FY25 actuals). Reaffirmed long-term 6-8% growth target toward high end.
- North Star Clean Energy contributing $0.25-$0.30 EPS FY26. Includes normalized DIG (Dearborn Industrial Generation) operations + renewable projects.
Business
CMS Energy Corporation is a Michigan-based regulated utility holding company. Three reporting segments:
- Electric Utility (Consumers Energy) (~70% of revenue / earnings). Michigan electric utility serving 1.9M customers. Large load tariff approved Q4. 20-year renewable energy plan approved.
- Gas Utility (Consumers Energy Gas) (~25%). Michigan gas utility serving 1.8M customers. Investment >$1B FY25 in storage + delivery infrastructure.
- North Star Clean Energy (~5%). Non-utility renewable generation + DIG (Dearborn Industrial Generation). FY26 EPS contribution $0.25-$0.30.
Strategic moves FY25:
- Large load tariff approved Nov 2025 (data center certainty)
- 20-year renewable energy plan approved (~$14B customer investment opportunity by 2040)
- $24B 5-year utility customer investment plan (+$4B vs prior)
- Gas business >$1B investment in storage + delivery
- Data center near-final terms on rate agreements + zoning
- Adj EPS $3.61 (above guide)
FY25 financial performance
| Metric (FY) | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($B) | 8.60 | 7.46 | 7.52 | 8.54 |
| Revenue YoY | n/a | -13% | +1% | +14% |
| Op income ($B) | 1.22 | 1.24 | 1.49 | 1.73 |
| Op margin | 14.2% | 16.5% | 19.8% | 20.2% |
| Net income ($B) | 0.84 | 0.89 | 1.00 | 1.07 |
| Diluted EPS ($) | 2.85 | 3.01 | 3.33 | 3.53 |
| Adj EPS ($) | n/a | n/a | ~$3.30 | 3.61 |
| FCF ($B) | -1.52 | -0.91 | -0.65 | -1.59 |
| Capex ($B) | -2.37 | -3.22 | -3.02 | -3.82 |
| Total debt ($B) | 14.34 | 15.67 | 16.59 | 18.94 |
| Dividends ($M) | -546 | -579 | -626 | -663 |
The earnings progression: revenue +14% FY25 reflects rate increases + load growth; op income +16%; adj EPS $3.61 (+9% above guide). Capex $-3.82B (+27% YoY) reflects $24B 5-year plan deployment. Total debt $18.94B (+14% YoY) reflects capital plan funding.
Capital allocation
- Capex: $-3.82B FY25 (45% of revenue, +27% YoY).
- Dividends: $-663M FY25 (+6% YoY); ~$2.06/share annual. Target ~55% payout ratio.
- Buybacks: $0 (utility model).
- Debt: $18.94B (+$2.35B YoY).
- Equity: Forward equity issuances expected to support capital plan.
FY26-30 outlook (per Q4 2025 call, 2026-02-05)
| Framework | Detail |
|---|---|
| FY26 adj EPS | $3.83 to $3.90 (+6-8% from FY25) |
| LT EPS growth | 6-8% toward high end through 2030 |
| Rate base growth | 10.5% through 2030 |
| 5-year utility capital plan | $24B (vs $20B prior, +$4B) |
| North Star Clean Energy FY26 EPS | $0.25 to $0.30 |
| Dividend payout ratio target | ~55% over time |
| Large load tariff | Approved Nov 2025 |
| 20-year renewable plan | ~$14B customer investment by 2040 |
The $24B 5-year capital plan + 10.5% rate base growth + 6-8% EPS growth is a strong regulated utility compounding pattern — with data center optionality on top.
Key risks
- Regulatory rate case outcomes. Multiple state rate cases progressing; ROE recommendations + final decisions affect EPS.
- Weather-related risks. Utility operations exposed to extreme weather + storms.
- Financing costs / equity issuance. Large capex + equity needs introduce dilution + interest cost dynamics.
- Data center finalization. Near-final terms on rate agreements + zoning required. Multi-quarter execution.
- Regulatory approval for capital plan. $24B 5-year plan requires regulatory approval cadence.
- Renewable plan execution. 20-year horizon + execution-dependent.
Bottom line
CMS Energy FY25 is the data-center-enabled regulated utility year: adj EPS $3.61 (above guide), large load tariff approved Nov 2025, $24B 5-year capital plan (+$4B), 10.5% rate base growth, 20-year renewable plan with $14B customer opportunity. FY26 adj EPS $3.83-$3.90 (+6-8%) with LT growth toward 6-8% high end. Risks are regulatory + weather + financing + data center finalization. Quality regulated utility with structural data center optionality + renewable plan upside.
Citations
- CMS Energy Corporation FY25 Form 10-K (filed February 2026, SEC EDGAR).
- CMS Q4 2025 earnings call, 2026-02-05 — adj EPS $3.61 (above guide); large load tariff approved Nov 2025; 20-year renewable plan approved (~$14B by 2040); FY26 adj EPS $3.83-$3.90 (+6-8%); LT 6-8% growth toward high end; $24B 5-year plan; 10.5% rate base growth.
- CMS Q3 2025 / Q2 2025 / Q1 2025 earnings calls — supporting capital plan + rate case progress (assumed in line with Q4 trajectory).
- Internal financial_statements view (consolidated annual + cash flow + capital structure).