Chipotle 2025-26: Comp -1.7%, FY26 Flat, Boatwright Era
FY25 revenue $11.93B (+5%); Op income $2.01B (+5%); NI $1.54B (~flat); EPS $1.14 (+3%). Comparable restaurant sales -1.7% FY25. Adjusted diluted EPS $1.17 (modest growth). Opened 334 company-owned + 11 international partner-operated restaurants. Scott Boatwright CEO leading. FY26 guide: comp ~flat, Q1 pricing impact ~70bp narrowing through year, COGS inflation mid-single-digit, labor in high 25%s Q1.
Key takeaways
- Comps flipped negative. Same-store sales -1.7% FY25 — first negative full year since 2020 COVID. Reflects Chipotle's specific issues (portion size scrutiny + value perception) + broader consumer dynamics.
- Unit growth strong. 334 new company-owned + 11 international partner-operated openings — Chipotle's largest annual unit development. Multi-decade unit growth pipeline still intact.
- FY26 comps guided ~flat. "Conservative baseline due to evolving consumer dynamics." Mgmt explicitly calibrating for difficult comp environment.
- Boatwright era continuing. CEO Scott Boatwright leading post-Brian Niccol departure. Strategy: protect/strengthen core via operational + culinary excellence; evolve brand messaging.
- Revenue +5% on unit growth despite comp drag. Without comp -1.7%, organic unit growth alone delivered +5% revenue + 5% op income.
Business
Chipotle Mexican Grill is a fast-casual restaurant chain with ~3,800+ company-owned restaurants (US + Canada + Europe), now expanding internationally via partner model. Single segment business:
- Company-owned restaurants (~99% of revenue): US + Canada + Europe (UK + Germany + France) + a few company-operated international locations. Chipotle owns + operates each restaurant — vertically-integrated model.
- International partner-operated (small, growing): Recent expansion to Middle East + Asia via JV partners. ~11 stores opened FY25.
Strategic positioning: Chipotle pioneered fast-casual category with high-quality ingredients + open kitchen + customizable bowls. Differentiation includes responsibly-raised meat sourcing + organic + local ingredients where possible. Premium positioning vs traditional QSR (Taco Bell, Wendy's, McDonald's).
Brand challenges in FY25: portion size perception + value-message scrutiny + competitive intensity from emerging Mexican fast-casual + Hispanic chain growth.
FY25 financial performance
| Metric (FY) | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($B) | 9.87 | 11.31 | 11.93 |
| Gross profit ($B) | 2.59 | 3.02 | 3.03 |
| Op income ($B) | 1.56 | 1.92 | 2.01 |
| Op margin | 15.8% | 16.9% | 16.9% |
| EBITDA ($B) | 1.95 | 2.32 | 2.37 |
| Net income ($B) | 1.23 | 1.53 | 1.54 |
| Diluted EPS ($) | 0.89 | 1.11 | 1.14 |
| FCF ($B) | 1.22 | 1.51 | 1.45 |
| Capex ($M) | -561 | -594 | -666 |
| Total debt ($B) | 4.05 | 4.54 | 9.85 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Buyback ($B) | -0.59 | -1.00 | -2.43 |
The earnings print: Revenue +5% on unit growth + ~flat blended pricing offsetting -1.7% volume comp; op margin held at 16.9%; EPS +3% on buyback shrink.
Total debt jumped to $9.85B (+$5.3B YoY) — major financing activity. Likely reflects significant buyback funding or refinancing event.
Buyback expanded materially to $-2.43B FY25 (vs $-1.0B FY24).
Capital allocation
- Capex: $-666M FY25 (5.6% of revenue). Heavy unit growth capital investment.
- Dividends: zero (Chipotle has never paid).
- Buybacks: $-2.43B FY25 — major acceleration. Funded by debt + FCF.
- M&A: minimal.
- Debt: $9.85B (+$5.3B YoY) — major increase.
FY26 outlook (per Q4 2025 call, 2026-02-03)
| FY26 framework | Direction |
|---|---|
| Comparable restaurant sales | About flat |
| Q1 pricing impact | ~70bp (narrowing through year) |
| Cost of sales inflation | Mid-single-digit range |
| Labor costs | High 25%s in Q1 |
| G&A non-GAAP Q1 | ~$203M |
The flat comp guide is conservative. Mgmt has built protection into the guide for evolving consumer dynamics.
Key risks
- Comp recovery: -1.7% trough. If comps don't inflect to positive in 2H FY26, growth thesis weakens.
- Portion / value perception: Brand health issue requires sustained operational + brand messaging investment.
- Beef + chicken + commodity inflation: Mid-single-digit guide assumes manageable; surge could compress margin.
- Labor cost cycle: High 25%s Q1 reflects inflation + investment.
- Competitive intensity: Mexican fast-casual category seeing share gains from CAVA + smaller emerging chains.
- Capital structure post debt jump: $9.85B debt is meaningful for a single-format operator.
Bottom line
CMG FY25 is the comp -1.7% reset + 334 unit opening + buyback acceleration year. Op margin held 16.9%, EPS +3% on buyback, unit growth strong. FY26 comp ~flat guide is conservative. Risks are comp recovery + portion/value perception + commodity + competition. Boatwright era continuing the multi-decade unit growth thesis.
Citations
- Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. FY25 Form 10-K (filed February 2026, SEC EDGAR).
- CMG Q4 2025 earnings call, 2026-02-03 — Boatwright (CEO) commentary on protecting + strengthening core, opened 334 + 11 international partner-operated, comp -1.7% FY25, FY26 guide (comp ~flat, Q1 pricing ~70bp narrowing, COGS inflation mid-single, labor high 25%s Q1, G&A ~$203M Q1).
- Internal financial_statements view (consolidated annual + cash flow + capital structure).