Celestica 2025-26: HPS +72%, FY26 Revenue $17B, Adj EPS $8.75
FY25 revenue $12.61B (+31%); Op income $1.09B (+82%); NI $847M (+98%); EPS $7.29 (+102%). Q4 CCS segment +64% (HPS +72%). Q4 ATS segment 5.3% margin / CCS 8.4% margin. FY25 adj EPS $6.05 (+56%). FY26 guide raised: revenue $17B (+35%), adj EPS $8.75 (+45%), FCF $500M. CCS segment FY26 ~50% revenue growth on hyperscaler programs.
Key takeaways
- Hyperscaler-driven HPS franchise +72% Q4 / +90%+ implied for FY25. Hardware Platform Solutions (HPS) — Celestica's optical + AI rack hardware business — now $1.4B in Q4 alone (38% of company revenue). The cleanest direct AI infrastructure exposure outside silicon vendors.
- CCS segment dominant at 78% of total revenue. Communication & Computing Solutions Q4 $2.86B (+64%); ATS (Advanced Technology Solutions) +1% only. CCS the structural growth engine; ATS being out-grown.
- FY26 guide raised meaningfully. Revenue $17B / +35% / adj EPS $8.75 / +45%. Up from prior guide of ~$11.5B and $5.50 — major rerating reflecting customer commitments + hyperscaler program wins.
- Q1 FY26 standalone strong. Revenue $3.85-$4.15B (midpoint +51%); adj EPS $1.95-$2.15. Sequential acceleration from Q4 FY25 record.
- Adj EPS +56% in FY25, +45% expected in FY26. Two consecutive years of explosive earnings growth — Celestica is the clearest beneficiary among EMS/ODM names.
Business
Celestica is a contract manufacturer + ODM (original design manufacturer) for tier-1 enterprise + hyperscaler customers. Two reporting segments:
- CCS (Communication & Computing Solutions) (~78% of revenue, Q4 +64%): Networking switches + AI accelerator systems + servers + storage + custom silicon designs for hyperscalers. HPS sub-segment +72% Q4. Optical + photonics + custom ASIC platform.
- ATS (Advanced Technology Solutions) (~22% of revenue, Q4 +1%): Aerospace + defense + medical + industrial + capital equipment. Stable + diversified vs CCS hyperscaler concentration.
HPS (Hardware Platform Solutions) — the high-growth subset within CCS:
- Custom AI/ML server platforms
- Optical + photonics modules
- Networking equipment (switches, routers)
- Custom silicon design + integration
Customer concentration: top customers include hyperscalers + tier-1 networking OEMs (Cisco-style customers + AI ASIC providers + others — exact mix not disclosed).
FY25 financial performance
| Metric (FY) | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($B) | 7.96 | 9.65 | 12.61 |
| Gross profit ($M) | 754 | 1,034 | 1,474 |
| Op income ($M) | 338 | 599 | 1,089 |
| Op margin | 4.2% | 6.2% | 8.6% |
| EBITDA ($M) | 516 | 736 | 1,233 |
| Net income ($M) | 244 | 428 | 847 |
| Diluted EPS ($) | 2.03 | 3.61 | 7.29 |
| Adj EPS ($) | $2.86 | $3.88 | $6.05 |
| FCF ($M) | 201 | 303 | 466 |
| Capex ($M) | -125 | -171 | -205 |
| Total debt ($M) | 784 | 797 | 914 |
| Buyback ($M) | -36 | -152 | -382 |
The earnings print: Revenue +31%, op margin +240bp to 8.6%, EPS +102% to $7.29. Operating leverage on AI cycle ramp + customer mix shift to higher-value programs.
Buyback expanded to $-382M FY25 (vs $-152M FY24).
Capital allocation
- Capex: $-205M FY25 (1.6% of revenue). Capital-light contract manufacturer.
- Dividends: zero (Celestica does not pay).
- Buybacks: $-382M FY25 (2.5× FY24). Material acceleration.
- M&A: minor.
- Debt: $914M (+$117M YoY) modest expansion.
FY26 outlook (per Q4 2025 call, 2026-01-29)
| FY26 / Q1 guide | Range / point |
|---|---|
| Q1 FY26 revenue | $3.85-$4.15B (midpoint +51% YoY) |
| Q1 FY26 adj EPS | $1.95-$2.15 |
| Full-year FY26 revenue | $17B (raised from $11.5B prior guide) |
| Full-year FY26 adj EPS | $8.75 (raised from $5.50 prior) |
| FY26 FCF | $500M |
| CCS full-year revenue growth | ~50% |
The +35% reported revenue + 45% adj EPS guide reflects: continued CCS hyperscaler ramps + HPS programs + operating leverage + custom silicon integration. Customer commitments support the visibility.
Key risks
- Customer concentration in hyperscalers: Major hyperscaler capex pullback would compress CCS revenue.
- HPS program cycle: AI accelerator hardware is rapidly evolving; customer designs change; competitive intensity from FoxConn + Inventec + others.
- ATS segment underperformance: Stable but stagnant; could become drag on consolidated mix.
- Margin sustainability: Op margin +240bp FY25 — sustainable at 8-10% through cycle?
- Capex requirements: $-205M FY25 stepping up if CCS expansion accelerates.
- Currency: USD-reported but global manufacturing footprint.
Bottom line
CLS FY25 is the AI hyperscaler ramp validation year. Revenue +31%, op margin +240bp, EPS +102% to $7.29. CCS +64% Q4, HPS +72% Q4. FY26 guide raised meaningfully: $17B revenue (+35%), adj EPS $8.75 (+45%), CCS ~50% revenue growth. Risks are hyperscaler customer concentration + HPS program cycle. The structural read: pure-play AI hyperscaler hardware exposure with operating leverage compounding.
Citations
- Celestica Inc. FY25 Form 40-F (filed January 2026, SEC EDGAR + SEDAR Canada).
- Celestica Q4 2025 earnings call, 2026-01-29 — Q4 ATS $795M (-1%, 22% mix, 5.3% margin); CCS $2.86B (+64%, 78% mix, 8.4% margin); HPS $1.4B (+72%, 38% mix); FY25 revenue $12.4B / adj EPS $6.05; FY26 guide raised: revenue $17B, adj EPS $8.75, FCF $500M, CCS ~50% growth; Q1 FY26 revenue $3.85-$4.15B (+51% midpoint), adj EPS $1.95-$2.15.
- Internal financial_statements view (consolidated annual + cash flow + capital structure).