Chord Energy Corporation (NASDAQ: CHRD) FY2025 revenue ~$5.20-5.65B (+30-40%) with adj. EPS ~$13.50-15.00 reflecting continued post-July 2024 ~$11B+ aggregate Enerplus merger ~$5.20-5.65B aggregate Williston Basin Bakken Shale Oil + Gas E&P revenue (~$4.0-4.3B aggregate Crude Oil + ~$0.65-0.75B aggregate Natural Gas + NGL + ~$0.55-0.60B aggregate Marketing + Other) under continued President + CEO Daniel Brown since November 2022 (~3-year tenure as Chord Energy CEO; selected primary post-September 2022 Whiting-Oasis merger + post-July 2024 Enerplus merger architect). One of the largest US specialty Williston Basin Bakken Shale Oil + Gas E&P companies. Founded September 2022 as Chord Energy via Whiting Petroleum-Oasis Petroleum merger of equals (~3-year heritage as Chord Energy); selected post-September 2022 NASDAQ listing ($5B+ combined merger value); selected post-November 2022 Daniel Brown CEO appointment; selected post-July 2024 ~$11B+ Enerplus Corporation acquisition ($3.7B+ Enerplus equity value + Enerplus US Williston Basin Bakken assets + post-July 2024 ~1.3M+ net acres combined + ~270K-290K BOE/day production combined). Headquartered in Houston Texas; ~700-800 employees globally with Williston Basin Bakken + Three Forks Shale Oil + Gas E&P specialty (North Dakota + Montana). One primary business: Williston Basin Bakken Shale Oil + Gas E&P ~100%. Structure: Crude Oil ~75%+ ($4.0-4.3B), Natural Gas + NGL ~13%+ ($0.65-0.75B), Marketing + Other ~10-12% ($0.55-0.60B). Geographic mix: North Dakota + Montana (Williston Basin) ~99%+. Williston Bakken Shale Oil + Enerplus merger pipeline (~$4.0-4.3B): ~$4.0-4.3B aggregate Crude Oil revenue (~75%+ revenue mix); selected primary Williston Basin Bakken + Three Forks Shale; selected primary post-July 2024 ~$11B+ Enerplus merger creating ~1.3M+ aggregate net acres; selected ~270K-290K BOE/day aggregate production; selected ~58-62% Crude Oil mix; selected ~$70-75 WTI Crude Oil price exposure; selected ~10+ year inventory life; selected ~$45-55 breakeven WTI per barrel. Natural Gas + NGL + Marketing + Capital Return pipeline: selected continued post-July 2024 Natural Gas + NGL ~$0.65-0.75B revenue (~13%+ revenue mix; Bakken Three Forks rich gas + NGL byproduct); selected Marketing + Other ~$0.55-0.60B revenue (~10-12% revenue mix; Bakken Three Forks crude marketing + transportation); selected ~75% Free Cash Flow capital return commitment; selected ~$1.5-2.5B aggregate annual Free Cash Flow. President + CEO Daniel Brown since November 2022 (~3-year tenure); CFO Richard Robuck. Capital position: ~$5.00 aggregate annual base + variable dividend (~28-32%+ aggregate payout ratio; ~4.5-5.5% aggregate dividend yield); ~$300-500M aggregate FY2025 buybacks (post-July 2024 Enerplus merger active capital return); aggregate capital return ~$695-1,030M FY2025; net leverage ~0.5-1.0x Net Debt/EBITDA (~debt-light); investment-grade Baa2/BBB credit rating; ~58-62M diluted shares (post-July 2024 Enerplus merger dilution); weighted average debt maturity ~5-6 years. FY2026 thesis: Williston Bakken Shale Oil + Enerplus merger pipeline + Natural Gas + NGL + Marketing + Capital Return pipeline + ~10+ year aggregate inventory life + ~75% FCF capital return commitment + ~$1.5-2.5B aggregate annual FCF + ~$200-300M aggregate annual run-rate Enerplus merger cost synergies + Trump administration energy policy. Risks: Continental Resources + Devon Energy + ConocoPhillips + Hess + Marathon Oil + Diamondback Energy + Civitas Resources + Permian Resources competitive displacement + WTI Crude Oil price cycle considerations + Henry Hub Natural Gas price cycle considerations + Federal Reserve interest rate cycle considerations + post-July 2024 Enerplus integration considerations + Bakken Three Forks well productivity decline considerations + Trump administration energy policy considerations.

[CHRD] Chord Energy Thesis 2026: Williston Bakken Drives Enerplus Merger Capital Return

Key Takeaways

CHRD FY2025 revenue ~$5.20-5.65B (+30-40% YoY) with adj. EPS ~$13.50-15.00 reflecting continued post-July 2024 ~$11B+ aggregate Enerplus merger ~~$5.20-5.65B aggregate Williston Basin Bakken Shale Oil + Gas E&P revenue (~~$4.0-4.3B aggregate Crude Oil + ~$0.65-0.75B aggregate Natural Gas + NGL + ~$0.55-0.60B aggregate Marketing + Other) under continued President + CEO Daniel Brown since November 2022 (~3-year tenure as Chord Energy CEO; selected primary post-September 2022 Whiting Petroleum-Oasis Petroleum merger creating Chord Energy + post-July 2024 Enerplus merger architect).
Williston Bakken Shale Oil + Enerplus Merger Pipeline (~$4.0-4.3B revenue): ~$4.0-4.3B aggregate Crude Oil revenue (~75%+ revenue mix); selected primary Williston Basin Bakken + Three Forks Shale + selected primary post-July 2024 ~$11B+ aggregate Enerplus merger creating ~1.3M+ aggregate net acres + selected various aggregate ~270K-290K BOE/day aggregate production + selected various aggregate ~58-62% aggregate Crude Oil mix + selected various aggregate ~$70-75 aggregate WTI Crude Oil price exposure + selected various aggregate ~10+ year aggregate inventory life + selected various aggregate ~$45-55 aggregate aggregate breakeven WTI per barrel.
Natural Gas + NGL + Marketing + Capital Return Pipeline: selected continued post-July 2024 selected various aggregate Natural Gas + NGL aggregate ~$0.65-0.75B aggregate revenue (~13%+ aggregate revenue mix; selected primary Bakken Three Forks rich gas + NGL byproduct) + selected various aggregate Marketing + Other aggregate ~$0.55-0.60B aggregate revenue (~10-12% aggregate revenue mix; selected primary Bakken Three Forks crude marketing + transportation) + selected various aggregate ~75% Free Cash Flow (FCF) capital return commitment + selected various aggregate ~$1.5-2.5B aggregate annual Free Cash Flow.
Capital position + balance sheet: ~$5.00 aggregate annual base + variable dividend (~28-32%+ aggregate payout ratio; ~4.5-5.5% aggregate dividend yield; selected primary post-2022 Whiting-Oasis combination base + variable dividend framework); ~$300-500M aggregate FY2025 buybacks (post-July 2024 Enerplus merger active capital return); aggregate capital return ~$695-1,030M FY2025; net leverage ~0.5-1.0x Net Debt/EBITDA (selected post-July 2024 Enerplus merger ~debt-light); investment-grade Baa2/BBB credit rating; ~58-62M diluted shares (post-July 2024 Enerplus merger dilution); weighted average debt maturity ~5-6 years.
FY2026 thesis catalysts: Williston Bakken Shale Oil + Enerplus merger pipeline (~$4.0-4.3B + ~270K-290K BOE/day production + ~~58-62% Crude Oil mix) + Natural Gas + NGL + Marketing + Capital Return pipeline (~~$1.20-1.35B aggregate combined) + selected ~10+ year aggregate inventory life + selected ~75% FCF capital return commitment + selected ~$1.5-2.5B aggregate annual FCF.

Company Background

Chord Energy Corporation (NASDAQ: CHRD) is one of the largest US specialty Williston Basin Bakken Shale Oil + Gas Exploration & Production (E&P) companies, founded September 2022 as Chord Energy via Whiting Petroleum-Oasis Petroleum merger of equals (3-year heritage as Chord Energy; selected primary post-September 2022 Whiting Petroleum-Oasis Petroleum merger creating Williston Basin Bakken Shale specialty). Selected post-September 2022 Whiting Petroleum-Oasis Petroleum merger of equals via Chord Energy NASDAQ listing ($5B+ aggregate combined merger value); selected post-November 2022 Daniel Brown CEO appointment (Whiting Petroleum legacy CEO; selected primary post-2022 Chord Energy architect); selected post-July 2024 ~~$11B+ aggregate Enerplus Corporation acquisition (~~$3.7B+ Enerplus equity value + selected various aggregate Enerplus US Williston Basin Bakken assets + selected primary post-July 2024 ~1.3M+ aggregate net acres combined + selected various aggregate ~270K-290K BOE/day aggregate production combined); HQ Houston Texas; ~700-800 employees globally; selected primary Williston Basin Bakken + Three Forks Shale Oil + Gas E&P specialty (North Dakota + Montana).

CHRD operates 1 primary business: Williston Basin Bakken Shale Oil + Gas E&P ~100% revenue. Crude Oil revenue ~~75%+ revenue mix (~~$4.0-4.3B; selected primary Bakken + Three Forks Shale Oil). Natural Gas + NGL revenue ~~13%+ revenue mix (~~$0.65-0.75B; selected primary Bakken Three Forks rich gas + NGL byproduct). Marketing + Other revenue ~~10-12% revenue mix (~~$0.55-0.60B; selected primary Bakken Three Forks crude marketing + transportation). Geographic mix: North Dakota + Montana (Williston Basin) ~99%+ + selected various aggregate ~1%.

Capital position: ~$5.00 aggregate annual base + variable dividend (~28-32%+ aggregate payout ratio; ~4.5-5.5% aggregate dividend yield); ~$300-500M aggregate FY2025 buybacks (post-July 2024 Enerplus merger active capital return); aggregate capital return ~$695-1,030M FY2025; net leverage ~0.5-1.0x Net Debt/EBITDA (post-July 2024 Enerplus merger ~debt-light); investment-grade Baa2/BBB credit rating; ~58-62M diluted shares; weighted average debt maturity ~5-6 years.

Williston Bakken Shale Oil + Enerplus Merger Pipeline (~$4.0-4.3B Revenue)

The Williston Bakken Shale Oil + Enerplus merger pipeline is CHRD's foundation thesis: ~$4.0-4.3B aggregate Crude Oil revenue (~75%+ revenue mix) + selected primary Williston Basin Bakken + Three Forks Shale + selected primary post-July 2024 ~$11B+ aggregate Enerplus merger creating ~1.3M+ aggregate net acres + selected various aggregate ~270K-290K BOE/day aggregate production + selected various aggregate ~58-62% aggregate Crude Oil mix + selected various aggregate ~$70-75 aggregate WTI Crude Oil price exposure + selected various aggregate ~10+ year aggregate inventory life + selected various aggregate ~$45-55 aggregate breakeven WTI per barrel. Selected primary CHRD platform: post-July 2024 Enerplus merger ~1.3M+ aggregate net acres + ~270K-290K BOE/day aggregate Williston Basin production.

FY2025 Crude Oil dynamics ($4.0-4.3B aggregate Crude Oil revenue): selected continued post-July 2024 ~+30-40% aggregate Crude Oil revenue growth (post-July 2024 Enerplus merger production accretion + selected various aggregate ~$70-75 aggregate WTI Crude Oil price + selected various aggregate ~270K-290K BOE/day production) + ~$4.0-4.3B aggregate Crude Oil revenue + selected various aggregate ~58-62% aggregate Crude Oil mix + selected various aggregate ~$70-75 aggregate WTI Crude Oil price exposure + selected various aggregate ~$45-55 aggregate breakeven WTI per barrel. Selected post-2024 ~$3.50-5.50 incremental annual EPS contribution as Williston Bakken Shale Oil + Enerplus merger drives incremental margin (post-July 2024 Enerplus integration + ~$200-300M aggregate annual run-rate cost synergies).

FY2026 catalyst: continued Williston Bakken Shale Oil + Enerplus merger pipeline + ~$3.50-5.50 incremental annual EPS contribution under continued Daniel Brown leadership (~3-year tenure). Selected aggregate ~$4.0-4.3B aggregate Crude Oil revenue + selected various ~+0-5% aggregate Crude Oil growth (production stability + selected various aggregate WTI Crude Oil price cycle) + selected various aggregate ~265K-285K BOE/day aggregate production + selected various aggregate ~$65-75 aggregate WTI Crude Oil price exposure + selected various aggregate ~$200-300M aggregate annual run-rate Enerplus merger cost synergies. Risks: Continental Resources (private; Hamm) + Devon Energy (DVN) + ConocoPhillips (COP) + Hess (post-Chevron acquisition) + Marathon Oil (post-ConocoPhillips acquisition) + selected various aggregate Williston Basin Bakken Shale competitive displacement + selected various aggregate WTI Crude Oil price cycle considerations + selected various aggregate Trump administration energy policy considerations + selected various aggregate post-July 2024 Enerplus integration considerations.

Natural Gas + NGL + Marketing + Capital Return Pipeline

The Natural Gas + NGL + Marketing + Capital Return pipeline is CHRD's primary growth thesis: selected continued post-July 2024 selected various aggregate Natural Gas + NGL aggregate ~$0.65-0.75B aggregate revenue (~13%+ aggregate revenue mix; selected primary Bakken Three Forks rich gas + NGL byproduct) + selected various aggregate Marketing + Other aggregate ~$0.55-0.60B aggregate revenue (~10-12% aggregate revenue mix; selected primary Bakken Three Forks crude marketing + transportation) + selected various aggregate ~75% Free Cash Flow (FCF) capital return commitment + selected various aggregate ~$1.5-2.5B aggregate annual Free Cash Flow.

FY2025 Natural Gas + NGL + Marketing + Capital Return dynamics: selected primary post-July 2024 ~$0.65-0.75B aggregate Natural Gas + NGL revenue + selected various aggregate ~$0.55-0.60B aggregate Marketing + Other revenue + selected various aggregate ~75% Free Cash Flow capital return commitment + selected various aggregate ~$1.5-2.5B aggregate annual Free Cash Flow + selected primary post-2022 Whiting-Oasis combination base + variable dividend framework. Selected post-2024 ~$1.50-2.50 incremental annual EPS contribution as Natural Gas + NGL + Marketing + Capital Return pipeline drives incremental margin.

FY2026 catalyst: continued Natural Gas + NGL + Marketing + Capital Return pipeline + ~$1.50-2.50 incremental EPS contribution. Selected aggregate ~$0.65-0.75B aggregate Natural Gas + NGL revenue + selected various aggregate ~$0.55-0.65B aggregate Marketing + Other revenue + selected various aggregate ~75% Free Cash Flow capital return commitment + selected various aggregate ~$1.5-2.5B aggregate annual FCF + selected various aggregate ~$695-1,200M aggregate annual capital return. Risks: Continental Resources + Devon Energy + ConocoPhillips + Hess + Marathon Oil + selected various aggregate Williston Basin Bakken NGL + Marketing competitive displacement + Henry Hub Natural Gas price cycle considerations + selected various aggregate Federal Reserve interest rate cycle considerations.

Capital Position + Balance Sheet

Capital position + balance sheet: ~$5.00 aggregate annual base + variable dividend (~28-32%+ aggregate payout ratio; ~4.5-5.5% aggregate dividend yield) + ~$300-500M aggregate FY2025 buybacks + aggregate capital return ~$695-1,030M FY2025 + net leverage ~0.5-1.0x Net Debt/EBITDA (~debt-light) + investment-grade Baa2/BBB credit rating + ~58-62M diluted shares + weighted average debt maturity ~5-6 years.

FY2026 catalyst: continued ~$695-1,200M aggregate annual capital return + selected continued ~4.5-5.5% aggregate dividend yield + selected continued ~$5.00-6.00 aggregate annual base + variable dividend + selected continued ~0.5-1.0x net leverage + selected various aggregate ~$300-500M aggregate annual buybacks + selected various aggregate ~75% FCF capital return commitment. Selected ~28-32%+ aggregate payout ratio + selected investment-grade Baa2/BBB credit rating support continued capital return + Williston Bakken Shale Oil + Enerplus integration + ~$1.5-2.5B aggregate annual FCF deployment.

Key Core Metrics

FY2025 revenue ~$5.20-5.65B (+30-40% YoY) vs $4.10B FY2024; adj. EPS ~$13.50-15.00
1 segment: Williston Basin Bakken Shale Oil + Gas E&P ~100%
Structure: Crude Oil ~75%+ ($4.0-4.3B) + Natural Gas + NGL ~13%+ ($0.65-0.75B) + Marketing + Other ~10-12% ($0.55-0.60B)
Geographic mix: North Dakota + Montana (Williston Basin) ~99%+
Production: ~270K-290K BOE/day; Crude Oil mix ~58-62%
Net acres: ~1.3M+ (post-July 2024 Enerplus merger)
Inventory life: ~10+ year aggregate
WTI Crude Oil price exposure: ~$70-75; breakeven WTI: ~$45-55 per barrel
Free Cash Flow: ~$1.5-2.5B aggregate annual
~75% FCF capital return commitment
Net leverage ~0.5-1.0x Net Debt/EBITDA (~debt-light)
~58-62M diluted shares (post-July 2024 Enerplus merger dilution)
Dividend ~$5.00 annual base + variable (~28-32%+ payout; ~4.5-5.5% yield)
~$300-500M aggregate FY2025 buybacks
~$695-1,030M total capital return FY2025
Investment-grade Baa2/BBB credit rating

Market Evaluation

CHRD FY2026 market evaluation: at ~$95-115 share price + ~58-62M diluted shares = ~$5.5-7B market cap; ~$5.00 aggregate annual base + variable dividend + ~4.5-5.5% aggregate dividend yield. Selected primary CHRD peers: Continental Resources (private; Hamm) + Devon Energy (DVN, ~$25-30B Mcap) + ConocoPhillips (COP, ~$110-130B) + Hess (post-Chevron acquisition pending) + Marathon Oil (post-ConocoPhillips acquisition closed) + Diamondback Energy (FANG, ~$25-30B) + Civitas Resources (CIVI, ~$3-4B) + Permian Resources (PR, ~$10-12B) + selected various aggregate global Williston Basin + Permian + Bakken Shale Oil + Gas E&P companies. Selected CHRD ~6-8x P/E + selected ~3-4x EV/EBITDA + selected ~4.5-5.5% dividend yield + selected aggregate ~$5.0-5.5B aggregate FY2026 revenue + selected aggregate ~$13.00-15.50 aggregate FY2026 EPS + selected aggregate ~$695-1,200M aggregate FY2026 capital return + selected aggregate Williston Basin Bakken + Enerplus merger pipeline. FY2026 base case: ~$5.0-5.5B aggregate revenue + ~$13.00-15.50 adj. EPS + ~~$695-1,200M aggregate capital return. Bull case: WTI Crude Oil price recovery to $80-90 + Williston Basin Bakken production stability + post-July 2024 Enerplus merger cost synergies (~~$200-300M run-rate) + ~75% FCF capital return commitment + Trump administration energy policy + Bakken inventory life expansion drives ~$5.5-6.0B aggregate revenue + ~$15.00-17.50 EPS. Bear case: Continental Resources + Devon Energy + ConocoPhillips + Hess + Marathon Oil + Diamondback + Civitas + Permian Resources competitive intensification + WTI Crude Oil price cycle weakness + Henry Hub Natural Gas price cycle considerations + Federal Reserve interest rate cycle considerations + post-July 2024 Enerplus integration considerations + Bakken Three Forks well productivity decline considerations drives ~$4.7-5.0B revenue + ~$11.50-13.00 EPS. The thesis depends on Williston Bakken Shale Oil + Enerplus merger + Natural Gas + NGL + Marketing + Capital Return pipeline + ~75% FCF commitment.