CCEP 2025-26: Record Year, FY26 Rev +3-4%, EUR 1B Buyback
FY25 (EUR) revenue €20.90B (+3%); Op income €2.79B (+31%); NI €1.94B (+37%); EPS €4.09 (+33%). Comparable volumes marginally ahead. Revenue per case +2.9% (>1/3 from brand/pack mix). Operating margin 13.4% (+90bp). FCF €1.95B. Buyback €1.0B. FY26 guide: revenue +3-4%, COGS/case +~1.5%, ~80% hedged on commodities, new EUR 1B buyback program imminent.
Key takeaways
- Record year on revenue + profit + FCF + returns. FY25 op profit +31% to €2.79B; op margin 13.4% (+90bp). Revenue +3%, but operating leverage strong on mix shift + cost discipline.
- Revenue per case +2.9% with >1/3 from brand + pack mix. Strategic shift toward higher-margin formats + brand premiumization paying off.
- Region-by-region strength. Europe (esp. GB) revenue growth nearly 6% with both channel volume growth. APS (Australia + Pacific + Indonesia + Philippines) ex-alcohol top line +7%. NARTD category benefitting.
- FY26 guide: revenue +3-4% growth. Driven by volumes + revenue per case. Reflects Suntory exit impact (Indonesia/Vietnam alcohol divestiture). 80% hedged on FY26 commodities (relatively benign).
- New EUR 1B buyback announced. Imminent commencement. Material capital return for a name that historically focused on dividend + debt management.
Business
Coca-Cola Europacific Partners (CCEP) is the largest Coca-Cola bottler globally, serving 2 regions:
- Europe (~70% of revenue): GB + Germany + France + Iberia + Belgium + Netherlands + Sweden + Norway + Iceland + Eastern Europe. Largest segment with FY25 strong volume growth.
- API + Australia (APS) (~30% of revenue): Australia + Pacific Islands + Indonesia (now ex-alcohol post-Suntory exit) + Philippines + New Zealand. Emerging market growth + Australia maturity.
Brand portfolio: Coca-Cola + Coca-Cola Zero + Diet Coke + Sprite + Fanta + Powerade + Schweppes + Costa + Innocent + Smartwater + Costa Coffee. CCEP also bottles other 3rd-party brands (Monster Energy in some markets).
Strategic positioning: largest CCBSS (Coca-Cola Bottler) globally with diversified mature + emerging market mix. Ex-alcohol exit from Suntory venture refines strategic focus on NARTD (non-alcoholic ready-to-drink).
FY25 financial performance (EUR)
| Metric (FY) | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (€B) | 18.30 | 20.44 | 20.90 |
| Gross profit (€B) | 6.73 | 7.28 | 7.44 |
| Op income (€B) | 2.34 | 2.13 | 2.79 |
| Op margin | 12.8% | 10.4% | 13.4% |
| EBITDA (€B) | 3.23 | 3.24 | 3.43 |
| Net income (€B) | 1.67 | 1.42 | 1.94 |
| Diluted EPS (€) | 3.64 | 3.08 | 4.09 |
| FCF (€B) | 2.13 | 2.27 | 1.95 |
| Capex (€M) | -672 | -791 | -720 |
| Total debt (€B) | 11.40 | 11.33 | 10.79 |
| Dividends (€M) | -841 | -910 | -890 |
| Buyback (€M) | 0 | 0 | -1,005 |
The earnings print: Revenue +3%, op margin +290bp to 13.4%, EPS +33% to €4.09. Major operating leverage on mix shift + cost discipline + Suntory exit.
Buyback initiated FY25 at €-1.0B — first major buyback in CCEP history.
Capital allocation
- Capex: -€720M FY25 (3.4% of revenue). Capital-light bottler model.
- Dividends: -€890M FY25 (-2% YoY due to Suntory exit timing).
- Buybacks: -€1.0B FY25 — first major buyback. New €1B program announced for imminent start.
- M&A / Divestitures: Indonesia / Vietnam alcohol exit via Suntory — refines NARTD focus.
- Debt management: €10.79B (-€0.54B YoY).
FY26 outlook (per Q4 2025 call, 2026-02-17)
| FY26 guide | Range |
|---|---|
| Revenue growth | +3-4% (volumes + revenue per case) |
| Cost of sales per case | +~1.5% |
| FX-neutral comparable revenue | Reflects Suntory exit |
| Commodity hedging | ~80% for full year |
| New buyback program | EUR 1B, imminent commencement |
| Midterm objectives | Remain unchanged |
The +3-4% revenue growth + +1.5% COGS/case = continued margin expansion thesis. New €1B buyback adds capital return mix.
Key risks
- European consumer: GB + Germany + France soft-drink consumption tied to consumer health + economic conditions.
- Commodity cycle: PET (resin), aluminum, sugar, paperboard inputs. 80% hedged FY26 reduces but doesn't eliminate exposure.
- APS / Asia consumer: Indonesia + Philippines emerging market consumer dynamics.
- Sugar tax + regulatory: Multiple geographies have or considering sugar/sweetener taxes.
- Coca-Cola Co. franchise relationship: Bottler relationship terms + product allocation matter.
- FX: Multi-currency exposure (GBP + AUD + IDR + others).
Bottom line
CCEP FY25 is the record year + buyback initiation. Revenue +3%, op margin +290bp to 13.4%, EPS +33%. New €1B buyback program imminent. FY26 guide +3-4% revenue + +1.5% COGS/case + commodity hedging + Suntory exit clean. The structural read: largest global Coca-Cola bottler with mature + emerging mix + strategic refocus on NARTD + buyback initiation. Risks are European consumer + commodity cycle + sugar tax + FX.
Citations
- Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC FY25 Annual Report (filed February 2026, UK FCA + SEC 20-F).
- CCEP Q4 2025 earnings call, 2026-02-17 — record year revenue/profit/FCF/returns; revenue €20.9B (+2.8%), revenue per case +2.9% (>1/3 from brand/pack mix), op margin 13.4%, FCF €1.8B+; FY26 guide (+3-4% revenue, COGS/case +~1.5%, 80% hedged commodities, new EUR 1B buyback imminent).
- Internal financial_statements view (consolidated annual + cash flow + capital structure; reflects EUR reporting).