BMYHealthcarePharmaceuticals·Sep 3, 2026·8 min read

[BMY] Bristol-Myers Squibb Thesis 2026: Growth Portfolio Offsets Legacy Product Decline

Bristol-Myers FY25 (Dec 31, 2025) at $48.19B revenue (-0.2%). Growth Portfolio +17% ($24-25B) offsetting -$4B legacy decline. Top growth: Eliquis +6% Q4 (+23% Q3); Opdivo +7% Q4; Camzyos +57% Q4; Breyanzi +47% Q4 (FDA approved 5 cancer types); Cobenfy $51M Q4. Operating income $12.70B; Net income $7.05B (vs -$8.95B FY24 Karuna IPR&D charge); Diluted EPS $3.45. FCF $12.85B (-8%). Dividends $5.05B (+4%); $0 buybacks. Total debt $47.14B (-$4B). $2B cost savings: $1B delivered FY25, $1B FY26-FY27. 6 registrational readouts expected FY26. 10 analysts: 4 Buy / 6 Hold; consensus $64.70, range $54-$75. Recent: Piper Sandler $66→$75; Guggenheim $62→$72; Cantor $45→$54.

BMY: FY25 Deep Dive

FY25 revenue $48.19B (-0.2% nominal) — Growth Portfolio +17% offset $4B legacy decline. Eliquis grew +6% Q4; Camzyos +57% Q4; Breyanzi +47% Q4. Net income $7.05B (vs -$8.95B FY24 driven by $12.1B Karuna acquisition write-down). $2B cost savings program: $1B delivered FY25, $1B FY26-FY27. 10 analysts: 4 Buy / 6 Hold; consensus $64.70.

Key Takeaways

Bristol-Myers Squibb closed fiscal 2025 (calendar year ended December 31, 2025) at $48.19 billion of revenue, essentially flat YoY (-0.2%). The structural read in the income statement: the Growth Portfolio grew +17% for the full year (Q4 +15%) — fully offsetting the ~$4 billion revenue decline from the legacy portfolio, which is in active patent-cliff erosion. Multiple newer products each crossed $1 billion in FY25 — Opdualag, Breyanzi, Camzyos — while Reblozyl exceeded $2 billion. Net income reached $7.05 billion (vs -$8.95B FY24 loss, which included a $12.1B Karuna Therapeutics IPR&D charge). Diluted EPS $3.45 (vs -$4.41 FY24 loss). Operating income $12.70B. Free cash flow $12.85B (-8% vs $13.94B FY24). Capital allocation: $5.05B in dividends (+4%), $0 in buybacks (vs $0 FY24, $5.16B FY23). Total debt $47.14B (vs $51.20B FY24). The strategic move was the $2 billion cost savings program: $1B delivered in FY25, on track for the remaining $1B over FY26-FY27, with continued AI use to drive efficiency and reinvest in growth. The pipeline features 10 new medicines and over 30 launch opportunities by 2030, with top-line registrational data expected for 6 products in FY26 (Nilvexin, admilparant, iberdomide, etc.). Sell-side coverage is 10 analysts: 4 Buy / 6 Hold / 0 Sell, consensus PT $64.70, range $54-$75. Recent activity included two new initiations (RBC Sector Perform $60, Barclays OW $75) plus a wave of PT raises post-Feb earnings — Guggenheim $62→$72 (+$10), Wells $55→$60 (+$5), Citi $60→$64 (+$4), Piper $66→$75 (+$9).


Main business structure

Bristol-Myers reports a single integrated pharmaceutical operating segment. Revenue framed by Growth Portfolio vs Legacy Portfolio:

Portfolio splitFY25 Approx RevenueYoY
Growth Portfolio~$24-25B+17%
Legacy Portfolio~$23-24B-$4B decline
Total Revenue$48.19B-0.2%

Growth Portfolio (~50% of revenue, +17%)

The portfolio of newer products driving structural revenue growth:

ProductFY25 (~$M)Q4 YoYTherapeutic Area
Eliquis~14,000+6% Q4 (+23% Q3)Anticoagulant — anchor product, Pfizer collaboration
Opdivo~10,000++7% Q4Immuno-oncology checkpoint inhibitor
Reblozyl>2,000Anemia / MDS (post-Celgene)
Camzyos~1,000++57% Q4Cardiomyopathy (post-MyoKardia)
Breyanzi~1,000++47% Q4CAR-T cell therapy
Opdualag>1,000Double-digitFirst-in-class LAG-3 + PD-1 combination
Sotyktu+3% Q4Psoriasis TYK2 inhibitor
Cobenfy$51M Q4Schizophrenia (post-Karuna)

Eliquis is the largest single product. Q3 FY25 Eliquis +23% reflected Medicare Part D negotiation pricing dynamics; Q4 +6% normalized.

Camzyos +57% Q4 and Breyanzi +47% Q4 are the highest-growth lines. Camzyos in obstructive HCM continues to expand on label refresh + market education; Breyanzi (lisocabtagene maraleucel) FDA-approved for 5 cancer types in 2025.

Cobenfy (KarXT, post-Karuna acquisition): the schizophrenia M4-PAM that has commercial uptake in recent quarters. FY25 revenue $51M Q4. Phase 3 ongoing for additional indications (Alzheimer's psychosis).

Pipeline: 10 new medicines + 30+ launch opportunities by 2030. 6 products with top-line registrational data expected in FY26: Nilvexin, admilparant, iberdomide, plus other late-stage assets. Iberdomide Phase 3 EXCALIBER MRD negativity improvement disclosed in 2025.

Legacy Portfolio (~50% of revenue, declining $4B annually)

Revlimid + Pomalyst + other oncology / anti-inflammatory products in patent-cliff erosion. The legacy decline is the structural drag that the Growth Portfolio is offsetting at +17%.

$2 billion cost savings program

Announced earlier; $1B delivered in FY25; $1B planned over FY26-FY27. Uses AI for operational efficiency. Reinvested in growth + pipeline.

Recent business development

  • Acquisition of Orbital Therapeutics in Q3 FY25
  • Licensing agreement with PhiloChem (radiopharmaceuticals)
  • Manufacturing hub: U.S. radiopharmaceutical facility opened (3-day delivery)
  • Strategic partnership with BioNTech (immuno-oncology expansion)
  • New company with Bain Capital: out-licensed 5 immunology assets

Geographic mix. US ~70%, International ~30%. US-skewed reflects high-value oncology / immunology drugs.

Customer concentration. Specialty distributors per industry standard.

Scale anchors. ~36,000 employees globally. R&D ~$10B annually (~21% of revenue).


Key core metrics (3-year trend)

1. Revenue and the offset arithmetic

FY23FY24FY25
Total revenue ($B)45.0148.3048.19
YoY+7%-0.2%
Growth Portfolio YoY+17%
Legacy Portfolio-~$4B

The structural read: BMY needs +18-20% Growth Portfolio growth annually to fully offset the $4B legacy decline. FY25 +17% = approximately net flat top line.

2. Earnings — distorted by FY24 Karuna charge

FY23FY24FY25
Operating income ($B)8.479.6612.70
Net income ($B)8.03-8.957.05
Diluted EPS$3.86-$4.41$3.45

The FY24 GAAP loss was driven by a ~$12.1B IPR&D charge from the Karuna acquisition (KarXT was preliminarily expensed under acquisition accounting). FY25 returned to normalized GAAP profitability.

3. Free cash flow

FY23FY24FY25
OCF ($B)13.8515.1914.16
Capex ($B)1.211.251.31
FCF ($B)12.6513.9412.85

FCF held in $12.65-$13.94B range — ample relative to dividend and acquisition deployment.

4. Capital allocation

FY23FY24FY25
Dividends ($B)4.744.865.05
Buybacks ($B)5.1600
Total return ($B)9.904.865.05
Total debt ($B)41.4651.2047.14

Buybacks paused since FY23 — reflecting Karuna acquisition + Mirati acquisition + ongoing pipeline reinvestment + deleveraging. Total debt declined ~$4B from peak. Dividend continued steady mid-single-digit growth.


Market evaluation

Sell-side coverage (as of April 27, 2026). 10 analysts cover the stock.

RatingCount
Buy / Outperform / Overweight4
Hold / Neutral / Equal-Weight / Sector Perform6
Sell0

Price targets. Consensus $64.70, range $54 (low: Cantor Fitzgerald, Neutral) to $75 (high: Piper Sandler, OW; Barclays, OW initiation).

Recent analyst activity (Feb-April 2026). 9 covered actions in window:

Notable raises (post-Feb earnings):

  • Piper Sandler: $66 → $75 — +$9, OW maintained, Street-high
  • Guggenheim: $62 → $72 on Feb 6 — +$10, Buy maintained
  • Wells Fargo: $55 → $60 on Feb 6 — +$5, EW maintained
  • Citi: $60 → $64 on Feb 6 — +$4, Neutral maintained
  • HSBC: $53 → $60 on March 17 — +$7, Hold maintained
  • B of A: $68 → $67 on April 9 — modest -$1 trim, Buy maintained

Initiations:

  • RBC Capital: initiated Sector Perform at $60 on Feb 25
  • Barclays: initiated Overweight at $75 on Feb 20

Cantor Fitzgerald: $45 → $54 on April 8 — +$9 (largest April raise), but Neutral maintained at the Street-low

The Hold-heavy distribution (6 of 10) reflects pipeline-execution risk + the legacy portfolio decline arithmetic. The 4 Buy ratings (Piper, Guggenheim, Barclays, B of A) lean on Growth Portfolio momentum + cost program execution.

Buy-side positioning. BMY is a core pharma holding with turnaround optionality. Trades at discount multiple to ABBV / LLY on legacy patent-cliff overhang. Short interest ~2% of float.


FY25 corporate structure: Growth Portfolio +17% offsetting Legacy decline; pipeline-rich FY26

FY25 was the year BMY's "Growth Portfolio offsetting Legacy decline" arithmetic printed unambiguously: +17% Growth ($24-25B) approximately offsetting -$4B Legacy decline, resulting in flat $48.19B total revenue. Growth Portfolio anchors include Eliquis ($14B+), Opdivo ($10B+), Reblozyl ($2B+), with high-growth contributors Camzyos (+57% Q4), Breyanzi (+47% Q4), Opdualag (double-digit), Cobenfy ($51M Q4 emerging). The $2B cost savings program delivered $1B in FY25. The FY26 setup is pipeline-rich: 6 registrational data readouts expected (Nilvexin, admilparant, iberdomide, etc.). The two structural watch items: (1) does the Growth Portfolio sustain ~+15-18% growth into FY26-FY27 to offset continued legacy decline; (2) does Cobenfy commercial uptake accelerate in Alzheimer's psychosis indication when Phase 3 reads out. The Q1 FY26 earnings print this week is the proximate event for measuring continued Growth Portfolio velocity + cost program progression + pipeline readout calendar.

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