AJGFinancial ServicesInsurance Brokers·Sep 3, 2026·5 min read

[AJG] Arthur J. Gallagher Thesis 2026: Twenty-Third Consecutive Quarter of Double-Digit Growth

Arthur J. Gallagher FY25 (Dec 31, 2025) at $13.94B revenue (+21% reported / +5% organic). NI $1.49B; EPS $5.75. Q4 +30% reported / +5% organic / adj EBITDA +30% (23rd consecutive quarter of double-digit growth). AssuredPartners (~$13B, 2024) integration on track. FY26 guide: Brokerage organic +5.5%, RM organic +7% / margins 21-22%.

Gallagher 2025-26: 23rd Quarter Double-Digit, FY26 Org +5.5%

FY25 revenue $13.94B (+21%); Op income $2.55B (+12%); NI $1.49B (+2%); EPS $5.75 (-12% on share count). Q4 reported revenue +30% / +5% organic / adj EBITDA +30% (23rd consecutive quarter of double-digit growth). Brokerage Q4 organic +5% with 50bp underlying margin expansion. M&A pipeline strong. FY26 guide: brokerage organic +5.5%, risk management +7%, margins 21-22%.

Key takeaways

  • 23rd consecutive quarter of double-digit adj EBITDA growth. Q4 +30% adj EBITDA on +30% reported revenue. The cleanest serial double-digit compounder in insurance broking.
  • 5% organic growth Q4 holding. Brokerage +5% Q4 organic; Risk Management ~7%. Reported revenue +30% reflects both organic + Buck + AssuredPartners + multiple bolt-on acquisitions annualizing through.
  • FY26 brokerage organic +5.5%, RM +7%. Both segments accelerating slightly vs FY25. Combined Total reported organic ~5.5%+ with M&A continuing to add layers on top.
  • M&A integration on track. AssuredPartners (~$13B 2024 deal, the largest in AJG history) integration progressing; Buck integration completing. Synergy targets achievable per management.
  • Insurance pricing environment supportive. Continued mid-single-digit primary insurance pricing + reinsurance hard cycle benefit.

Business

Arthur J. Gallagher is the third-largest insurance broker globally (after Marsh McLennan + Aon), with three segments:

  • Brokerage (~75% of revenue): Commercial property + casualty + specialty + benefits brokerage. Q4 organic growth: Americas retail PC +5%, UK/EMEA +7%, APAC +3%, Specialty/wholesale + US wholesale +7%, Reinsurance +8%, Benefits +1%. Adj EBITDAC margin 32.2% Q4.
  • Risk Management (Gallagher Bassett) (~20% of revenue): Third-party claims administration + risk control + advisory. Higher-margin (~21-22%) than brokerage. ~7% organic FY26 guide.
  • Other / Corporate (~5% of revenue): Captives + program services + other.

Strategic position: AJG combines brokerage + risk management at scale + Bassett claims platform — differentiated vs pure brokerage peers. AssuredPartners (closed 2024, ~$13B) was the largest acquisition in company history, adding meaningful US middle-market expansion.

FY25 financial performance

Metric (FY)202320242025
Revenue ($B)10.0711.5513.94
Gross profit ($B)4.254.887.63
Op income ($B)1.862.282.55
Op margin18.5%19.7%18.3%
EBITDA ($B)2.183.103.66
Net income ($B)0.971.461.49
Diluted EPS ($)4.426.535.75
FCF ($B)1.842.441.79
Capex ($M)-194-142-145
Total debt ($B)8.3213.4914.00
Dividends ($M)-474-525-667

The earnings print: Revenue +21% reported / +5% organic. Adj EBITDA +18% reflects Buck + AssuredPartners + organic. EPS $5.75 (-12%) on share count expansion from M&A — but adj EPS continues growing.

Total debt $14.0B reflects AssuredPartners deal funding. Dividend +27% YoY (continued raise track).

Capital allocation

  • Capex: $-145M FY25 (1.0% of revenue). Capital-light services.
  • Dividends: $-667M FY25 (+27% YoY). Strong dividend growth.
  • Buybacks: zero FY25 (capital priority on M&A).
  • M&A: AssuredPartners + Buck + multiple bolt-ons. Strong M&A pipeline FY26.
  • Debt: $14.0B (+$0.5B YoY) post-AssuredPartners.

FY26 outlook (per Q4 2025 call, 2026-01-29)

FY26 guideRange / target
Brokerage organic growth~5.5%
Risk Management organic growth~7%, margins 21-22%
M&A integrationOn track
M&A pipelineStrong; continued cadence

The +5.5% brokerage organic guide is structurally healthy. AssuredPartners + Buck full-year contributions + bolt-ons on top imply reported revenue +mid-teens YoY.

Key risks

  • Insurance market cycle: Hard market in P&C + reinsurance currently favorable. Soft market would compress commission revenue.
  • AssuredPartners integration: Year 2 of largest-ever acquisition; cost + revenue synergies + customer retention all material.
  • Talent retention: Insurance broking is talent-intensive. Compensation + competitor poaching continue.
  • Currency: ~30% revenue international; FX exposure.
  • M&A execution: Continued strong M&A cadence + integration risk.
  • Regulatory: Multiple jurisdictions; PBM-style scrutiny on commission practices.

Bottom line

AJG FY25 is the 23rd consecutive quarter of double-digit growth + AssuredPartners full year. Revenue +21% reported / +5% organic / adj EBITDA +30%. FY26 guide brokerage +5.5% / RM +7% / margins 21-22% RM. M&A pipeline strong + integration on track. The structural read: insurance brokerage scale + risk management differentiation + serial M&A compounder + consistent capital return. Risks are insurance market cycle + integration tail + talent.

Citations

  • Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. FY25 Form 10-K (filed February 2026, SEC EDGAR).
  • AJG Q4 2025 earnings call, 2026-01-29 — Q4 reported +30% / +5% organic / adj EBITDA +30% (23rd consecutive quarter of double-digit growth), Brokerage Q4 organic detail (Americas retail PC +5%, UK/EMEA +7%, APAC +3%, Wholesale +7%, Reinsurance +8%, Benefits +1%); FY26 brokerage organic ~5.5%, RM ~7% / margins 21-22%, M&A pipeline strong.
  • AssuredPartners acquisition (closed 2024, ~$13B); Buck acquisition.
  • Internal financial_statements view (consolidated annual + cash flow + capital structure).
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