AIG 2025-26: $1B+ Buyback, FY26 NPW +Low to Mid-Teens
FY25 revenue $26.77B (-2%); Op income $3.88B (~flat); NI $3.10B (+320% from FY24 reset); EPS $5.43 (+62%). Adjusted after-tax income/share $7.09 FY25 (+43%). Q4 underwriting income $670M (+48% YoY). Q4 General Insurance NPW $6B (+1%); global commercial +3%. Accident year combined ratio 88.9%. Expense ratio 32.1% (-70bp). FY26: low to mid-teens NPW growth in general insurance; intends to repurchase >=$1B common shares.
Key takeaways
- Adj after-tax income/share +43% to $7.09. FY25 reflects strong underwriting + investment results post-Corebridge sell-down + portfolio simplification.
- Q4 underwriting income +48% to $670M. Combined ratio 88.9% accident year / 88.8% calendar year. Expense ratio improved 70bp.
- Q4 cat losses only $125M with $116M favorable prior-year development. Strong reserve adequacy + cat management.
- FY26 guide low-to-mid-teens NPW growth. Materially above mid-cycle; commercial pricing + new business + risk solutions all contributing.
- Capital return continued. $-5.84B buyback FY25 (up from $-7.14B FY24). FY26 intent to repurchase ≥$1B + Corebridge sell-down proceeds likely deployed to additional repurchases.
Business
American International Group is one of the largest US-based commercial P&C insurers + specialty insurance + reinsurance company. Single primary segment post-Corebridge spin:
- General Insurance (~95% of revenue post-Corebridge): Commercial Lines + International + Personal Lines + Specialty + Reinsurance. Q4 NPW $6B (+1%); accident year combined ratio 88.9%; expense ratio 32.1% (-70bp).
- Other (~5%): Corporate + investments + run-off.
Strategic positioning: post-Corebridge sell-down (life + retirement spun off), AIG is now focused commercial + specialty P&C insurer. Major restructure complete; capital flexibility for buybacks + organic growth.
FY25 financial performance
| Metric (FY) | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($B) | 27.96 | 27.27 | 26.77 |
| Gross profit ($B) | 4.37 | 9.28 | 9.24 |
| Op income ($B) | 2.86 | 3.87 | 3.88 |
| EBITDA ($B) | 7.22 | 7.93 | 7.73 |
| Net income ($B) | 3.64 | -1.40 | 3.10 |
| Diluted EPS ($) | 4.98 | 3.35 | 5.43 |
| Adj EPS ($) | $6.10 | $4.95 | $7.09 |
| FCF ($B) | 6.24 | 3.27 | 3.31 |
| Total debt ($B) | 10.86 | 8.92 | 9.19 |
| Dividends ($M) | -1,026 | -1,024 | -976 |
| Buyback ($B) | -2.96 | -7.14 | -5.84 |
The earnings print: Revenue -2% on portfolio simplification + Corebridge separation timing, but adj EPS +43% on underwriting + investment + buyback. Q4 strong with $670M underwriting income (+48%).
Capital allocation
- Capex: minimal (insurance company).
- Dividends: $-976M FY25 (-5% YoY). Held similar.
- Buybacks: $-5.84B FY25 (vs $-7.14B FY24). Material.
- M&A / Spin: Corebridge sell-down continuing.
- Debt: $9.19B (+$0.27B YoY).
FY26 outlook (per Q4 2025 call, 2026-02-11)
| FY26 framework | Direction |
|---|---|
| General insurance NPW growth | Low to mid-teens |
| Buyback intent | ≥$1B common shares |
| Corebridge proceeds | Likely additional repurchases |
| Underwriting margin | Continued discipline |
The +low-to-mid-teens NPW growth is unusually strong for a mature P&C insurer — reflects pricing + new business + risk solution mix.
Key risks
- Catastrophe losses: P&C exposure to wildfire + hurricane + severe weather.
- Reinsurance market: Reinsurance pricing cycle affects net cession.
- Underwriting cycle: Hard market currently favorable; soft market would compress margin.
- Reserve adequacy: Long-tail commercial exposure; reserve adjustments material.
- Investment portfolio: Interest rate cycle + credit cycle affect investment income.
- Regulatory: P&C regulatory framework + state insurance commissioners.
Bottom line
AIG FY25 is the post-Corebridge focused-commercial-insurer year. Adj EPS +43% to $7.09; Q4 underwriting income +48%; combined ratio 88.9%. Buyback $-5.84B + FY26 ≥$1B intent + Corebridge proceeds. FY26 NPW guide low-to-mid-teens. Risks are catastrophe + reinsurance + reserve. Quality + capital + buyback.
Citations
- American International Group Inc. FY25 Form 10-K (filed February 2026, SEC EDGAR).
- AIG Q4 2025 earnings call, 2026-02-11 — Q4 adj after-tax income/share $1.96 (+51%) / FY $7.09 (+43%); Q4 underwriting income $670M (+48%); Q4 NPW $6B (+1%, commercial +3%); accident year combined ratio 88.9%, calendar 88.8%; expense ratio 32.1% (-70bp); cat losses $125M / favorable PY development $116M; FY26 NPW low-to-mid-teens guide; ≥$1B buyback intent; Corebridge sell-down proceeds for additional repurchases.
- Internal financial_statements view (consolidated annual + cash flow + capital structure).