Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. (VIST) Earnings

VIST has beaten EPS estimates in 3 of its last 12 reported quarters (average surprise -25.1% over the last four).

Next earnings
Not scheduled
Track record
Beat EPS in 3 of 12 quarters
Avg surprise -25.1% (last 4 quarters)
Earnings history
Report dateEPS estEPS actualSurpriseRevenueRev. surprise
Jul 17, 2026$3.15$2.90-7.9%$1.2B+4.2%
Apr 30, 2026$1.42$0.89-37.3%$671M-5.4%
Oct 22, 2025$1.24$1.48+19.4%$706M+3.9%
Jul 10, 2025$2.15$0.55-74.4%$611M-3.9%
Apr 23, 2025$0.82$0.79-3.7%$438M-21.8%
Feb 26, 2025$0.90$0.23-74.4%$471M+1.5%
Oct 23, 2024$1.36$0.55-59.6%$462M-7.1%
Jul 11, 2024$1.40$0.74-47.1%$397M-21.3%
Feb 20, 2024$1.54$2.52+63.6%$309M-3.0%
Jul 13, 2023$0.87$0.52-40.2%$231M
Feb 23, 2023$0.93$0.76-18.3%$308M+1.1%
Oct 26, 2022$0.72$0.75+4.2%$334M+4.3%

Source: company filings + earnings calendar. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.

Earnings call summary

Q2 FY2026 · July 17, 2026

AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.

Management highlights

### Core Quarterly Milestones - Closed the acquisition of additional working interest in the Bandurria Sur and Bajada del Toro assets in Vaca Muerta, effective May 1 2026, increasing the company's scale and positioning it to benefit from elevated oil prices - Organic growth from 90 new wells connected in the last 12 months delivered 20% YoY production growth; the acquired assets added an average 14,200 BOE/d in Q2 2026, with a 21,000 BOE/d run rate that will fully impact Q3 results - 72% of Q2 oil sales were exported, totaling 8.6 million barrels, a 54% YoY increase; 100% of all oil sales (domestic and international) are priced at export parity, with an average realized price of $89.4 per barrel, 44% higher YoY ### Balance Sheet and Cost Performance - Strong free cash flow generation reduced net leverage significantly YoY, with a pro forma net leverage ratio of 1.25x adjusted EBITDA at quarter end - Lower YoY lifting costs reflect the company's low-cost Vaca Muerta asset base and fixed-cost dilution from increased scale; sequential lifting cost increases are driven by inflation on peso-denominated inputs - Operational innovation and supply chain optimization are delivering ongoing cost reductions, including moving sand supply to in-basin sources, switching to wet sand for completions, and converting frac pumps from gasoline to natural gas ### Strategic Capital Allocation Framework - Management's core priority remains growth, with a target to reduce net leverage to ~1x adjusted EBITDA by the end of 2026, which the company is on track to achieve - After reaching the leverage target, the company retains flexibility to pursue additional accretive M&A to consolidate Vaca Muerta acreage, fund growth projects under Argentina's RIGI energy incentive framework, and consider share buybacks and a future shareholder return policy including dividends

Guidance

- Management maintains its full-year 2026 CAPEX guidance of $3 billion, based on an assumption of $85 per barrel Brent - Full-year 2026 average production guidance is maintained at 158,000 BOE/d, with management noting it is slightly optimistic that production will come in above this target; Q3 2026 production is forecast at 160,000 BOE/d, and Q4 2026 at 170,000 BOE/d - Adjusted EBITDA has a sensitivity of ~$200 million per $10 per barrel change in Brent prices in the second half of 2026 - The Vemos pipeline export expansion project remains on schedule for mid-2027 full completion; the project is 65% complete overall, with the pipeline itself 82% complete

Segment performance

VISTA reports consolidated results for its upstream oil and gas operations as a single operating segment focused on the Vaca Muerta shale play in Argentina. For Q2 2026: Total revenue hit $1.15 billion, 89% higher year-over-year (YoY) and 66% higher sequentially. Total production reached 156,100 barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOE/d), 32% higher YoY and 16% higher sequentially, of which oil production was 135,400 barrels per day (bbl/d), 33% higher YoY and 60% higher sequentially, and gas production was 20,700 BOE/d, 30% higher YoY. Adjusted EBITDA was $805 million, 99% higher YoY and 79% higher sequentially, representing a 70% adjusted EBITDA margin (up 3 percentage points YoY). Net income was $322 million, 37% higher YoY and 199% higher sequentially (more than 9x YoY when excluding the 2025 acquisition gain). Net of the QNOR acquisition payment, free cash flow was $491 million. Capital expenditure for the quarter totaled $467 million, driven by new well activity. Lifting costs came in at $4.5 per BOE, 4% lower YoY, with a 1.41x net leverage ratio (1.25x pro forma for acquired assets).

Risks & headwinds

- Delivery of specialized components (the mooring buoy for the Vemos offshore terminal) is delayed due to the Panama Canal drought closures; management is evaluating alternative solutions and does not currently expect a change to the project completion schedule or the need for additional temporary trucking capacity - Argentine peso inflation impacts the cost of peso-denominated goods and services, leading to sequential increases in lifting costs - Limited availability of existing oil service equipment and drilling rigs in Argentina restricts short-term increases in drilling activity even if cost efficiencies are achieved - Forward-looking statements and production/financial guidance are subject to material uncertainty from global oil price volatility, which could cause actual results to differ materially from current projections

Analyst Q&A

  • Q: How has the integration of the newly acquired Bandurria Sur and Bajada del Toro assets progressed, and what are the plans for their future development?

    A: The acquisition integration is proceeding exactly as expected. The assets currently produce ~19,000 BOE/d at Bandurria Sur and ~2,000 BOE/d at Bajada del Toro. Three active rigs are operating at Bandurria Sur, where production is expected to remain flat or grow slightly through end-2026, with 2027 planning underway with partner YPF. Bajada del Toro is an appraisal block; pilot drilling will occur over the next two years ahead of a full development decision.

  • Q: What is VISTA's priority for capital allocation after the company reaches its 1x net leverage target, and will dividends become a key priority?

    A: Growth remains the company's top strategic priority. VISTA will retain full flexibility to pursue additional accretive M&A to consolidate core Vaca Muerta acreage, fund new RIGI incentive projects for future growth, and consider share buybacks. A formal shareholder return policy including dividends will be considered for the future, but is not a near-term priority.

  • Q: Is VISTA currently pursuing additional M&A opportunities in Vaca Muerta, and would it consider farming out its existing acreage to raise capital?

    A: VISTA's successful track record of value-accretive acquisitions in Vaca Muerta means the company will continue to actively pursue opportunities to consolidate additional core acreage. Given VISTA's strong current balance sheet and favorable market conditions, the company is not currently looking to dilute its position via farm-outs of core acreage such as Aguila Mora, though this strategy could change if market conditions shift.

  • Q: What is the current status of VISTA's participation in Argentina's RIGI incentive program, and which projects will be submitted?

    A: VISTA is finalizing documentation for the Bandurria Norte project, which will be submitted for RIGI approval in the coming weeks. Additional projects including Aguila Mora, Corino Namargo Norte, and Embajada del Toro (with partner YPF) will also be submitted for approval. The regulatory review process is expected to take several months, and VISTA views the RIGI framework as supportive of its future growth plans.