Vale S.A. (VALE) Earnings
Vale S.A. is expected to report next earnings on July 30, 2026 (in NaN days), with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.48. VALE has beaten EPS estimates in 6 of its last 12 reported quarters (average surprise +7.2% over the last four).
| Report date | EPS est | EPS actual | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 28, 2026 | $0.47 | $0.44 | -6.4% | $9.3B | -2.8% |
| Feb 12, 2026 | $0.57 | $0.34 | -40.4% | $11.1B | +1.8% |
| Oct 30, 2025 | $0.49 | $0.63 | +28.6% | $10.4B | -3.7% |
| Jul 31, 2025 | $0.34 | $0.50 | +47.1% | $8.8B | -6.4% |
| Apr 24, 2025 | $0.37 | $0.35 | -5.4% | $8.1B | -14.1% |
| Feb 19, 2025 | $0.56 | $0.20 | -64.3% | $9.6B | -4.4% |
| Oct 24, 2024 | $0.46 | $0.56 | +21.7% | $9.6B | -11.9% |
| Jul 25, 2024 | $0.38 | $0.43 | +13.2% | $9.9B | -5.3% |
| Feb 22, 2024 | $0.96 | $0.56 | -41.7% | $13.0B | -1.8% |
| Oct 26, 2023 | $0.62 | $0.66 | +6.5% | $10.6B | -2.2% |
| Jul 27, 2023 | $0.56 | $0.20 | -64.3% | $9.7B | -1.6% |
| Feb 16, 2023 | $0.61 | $0.82 | +34.4% | $11.9B | +4.0% |
Source: company filings + earnings calendar. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Earnings call summary
Q4 FY2025 · February 13, 2026
AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Management highlights
Safety: 21% reduction in high potential incidents. Tailings dams: Eliminated all emergency level 3 dams by 2025, expect 86% reduction by end of 2026. Reparations: 81% execution of Brumadinho agreement, disbursed BRL 73 billion under Mariana agreement. Operational: Exceeded production guidances across businesses, delivered cost reductions. Launched Novo Carajás program. Capital allocation: Robust, with new projects advancing, CapEx optimized to below $6 billion, dividends announced.
Guidance
2026 C1 cash costs expected to range between $20 and $21.5 per ton. Vale Base Metals to continue reducing operating costs. 2026 CapEx expected $5.4 billion to $5.7 billion. Dividends and interest on capital announced, with potential for more shareholder returns based on cash generation.
Segment performance
Iron ore: Production reached 336 million tons in 2025, 3% higher y-o-y, the highest since 2018. All-in costs were $54 per ton, a $2 per ton y-o-y reduction. Vale Base Metals: Copper production was 382,000 tons, 10% higher y-o-y; nickel production was 177,000 tons, 11% higher y-o-y. Copper all-in costs were negative, nickel all-in costs declined 35% y-o-y.
Risks & headwinds
Potential impact of events like Fabrica and Viga overflow on operations; need to upgrade safety parameters. Impact of Indonesian license changes on nickel market supply and price.
Analyst Q&A
Q: First question for Shaun on copper and nickel costs and guidance.
A: Shaun discussed cost improvements, ongoing focus on costs and volumes, well on track with guidance.
Q: Second question for Gustavo on Base Metals value.
A: Gustavo talked about market recognition of Base Metals value, ongoing growth projects.
Q: Question for Rogério on iron ore price realization.
A: Rogério explained price realization factors, focus on contribution margin.
Q: Question for Shaun on nickel cost reduction.
A: Shaun discussed asset integrity, reliability, and operational goals.
Q: Question on Indonesian nickel licenses.
A: Shaun was cautiously optimistic.
Q: Question on Fabrica, Viga and restricted AUM.
A: Gustavo and Marcelo discussed the events and restricted AUM status.
Q: Question on iron ore commercial strategy.
A: Rogério talked about CMRG and benchmark pricing.
Q: Question on iron ore grade and CMRG.
A: Rogério and Shaun discussed grade impact and CMRG negotiations.
Q: Question on iron ore business environment.
A: Rogério and Shaun discussed iron ore market fundamentals and copper growth.
Q: Question on capital allocation and returning cash to shareholders.
A: Marcelo talked about potential buybacks and dividends.
Q: Question on mid-grade volume and M&A.
A: Rogério and Gustavo discussed mid-grade strategy and M&A focus