Sasol Limited (SSL) Earnings
Sasol Limited is expected to report next earnings on March 1, 2027 (in NaN days). SSL has beaten EPS estimates in 3 of its last 8 reported quarters (average surprise -171.3% over the last four).
| Report date | EPS est | EPS actual | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1, 2026 | $1.53 | $2.06 | +34.6% | $9.3B | +9.0% |
| Aug 24, 2025 | $1.15 | $1.41 | +22.6% | $7.2B | +1.4% |
| Aug 20, 2024 | $1.01 | $-4.67 | -561.9% | $7.6B | +0.1% |
| Aug 22, 2023 | $0.83 | $-0.45 | -153.8% | $7.3B | +4.3% |
| Aug 15, 2022 | $2.13 | $2.30 | +8.0% | $9.4B | +19.9% |
| Aug 16, 2021 | $1.36 | $-0.60 | -144.0% | $7.6B | -1.5% |
| Dec 31, 2020 | $-0.09 | $1.58 | +1916.7% | $6.2B | +5.3% |
| Jun 30, 2020 | $-0.19 | $-9.04 | -4652.9% | $5.3B | +13.8% |
| Dec 31, 2019 | $0.50 | $0.46 | -7.4% | $7.0B | +4.0% |
| Dec 31, 2018 | — | $1.88 | — | $8.1B | — |
| Jun 30, 2018 | — | $0.21 | — | $6.7B | — |
| Jun 30, 2014 | — | $2.47 | — | $9.7B | — |
Source: company filings + earnings calendar. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Earnings call summary
Q4 FY2026 · September 1, 2026
AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Management highlights
- Safety Culture: Management expressed deep regret for two fatalities but highlighted encouraging trends including record-low hospitalizations and a significant reduction in process safety incidents. Targeted action plans are being implemented to strengthen leadership accountability and risk identification. - Foundation Business Strengthening: The Southern African value chain is showing restored stability. Coal quality improvements via the new distilling plant have reduced sinks below 12%. Secunda production reached a five-year high of 7.26 million tonnes. The gas business achieved beneficial operation of the PSA project, enabling first-in-country LPG production in Mozambique. - International Chemicals Reset: The portfolio has been streamlined, costs reduced, and an ERP program launched in Germany, Slovakia, and the UK. The business demonstrated agility by restarting the paraffin unit in Augusta to capitalize on supply constraints and improve customer relationships. - Strategic Growth (Grow & Transform): Over 500 MW of renewable energy came online in South Africa, keeping the company on track for its 2 GW target by FY30. Sasol became the first refinery in Africa to receive sustainability certification for key fuel pathways. - Financial Discipline: Cash fix costs remained flat despite inflation for three consecutive years. Capital expenditure was reduced by 18% to R21 billion without compromising safety or asset integrity.
Guidance
- FY27 Adjusted EBITDA Guidance: Management provided guidance for International Chemicals of $450–$600 million for FY27, implying a decrease from FY26 levels as it excludes the tailwinds from Middle East geopolitical disruptions seen in late FY26. - Capital Expenditure Reduction: FY27 capital guidance is lower than previous ranges, resulting in a cumulative capital reduction of approximately R12–14 billion compared to the Capital Markets Day projections. This reduction reflects sustainable cost/scope improvements and project phasing. - Debt Reduction Targets: The company aims to sustainably reduce net debt below US$3 billion between FY27 and FY28. Net debt ended FY26 at US$3.3 billion, ahead of the target of below US$3.7 billion. - Dividend Policy: Dividends will resume only when net debt is sustainably below US$3 billion. No specific timeline or amount for dividend resumption was confirmed beyond this threshold.
Segment performance
The Group delivered a materially stronger earnings outcome in FY26, with Adjusted EBITDA increasing by 17% to R61 billion. The Mining segment was impacted by the planned phase-out of export coal sales, though volumes were redirected to the Secunda operation to support the broader South African value chain. Gas performance was negatively affected by lower production volumes and a stronger Rand exchange rate. Fuels delivered a particularly strong performance, driven by improved operational reliability at NatRef and significantly stronger refining margins and product differentials. Chemicals Africa remained under pressure due to the stronger Rand, partially offset by higher sales volumes and marginal price increases in Q4. International Chemicals saw increased EBITDA across both Chemicals America and Eurasia, maintaining a 16% contribution to Group EBITDA, supported by cost savings, ERP implementation, and a more supportive market environment in Q4.
Risks & headwinds
- Geopolitical and Market Volatility: Ongoing volatility in oil markets and commodity prices poses risks. While the Middle East conflict provided short-term margin benefits, management warns that prolonged higher oil prices may erode customer buying behavior and demand, particularly in the chemical sector. - Regulatory and Environmental Scrutiny: Increasing scrutiny around air emissions at Secunda presents potential risks for tighter SO2 and NOx regulations or litigation. The upcoming SIRA report findings will be interrogated for assumptions regarding emissions. - Working Capital Pressure: Working capital turnover was above target (18.3%) due to higher commodity prices, Prax utilization at NatRef, and inventory buildup. There is a risk that working capital does not unwind as quickly as expected if pricing remains volatile. - Credit Rating Constraints: Moody’s and S&P maintain negative outlooks, constrained largely by South Africa’s sovereign rating. Failure to demonstrate sustained deleveraging could impact financing costs.
Analyst Q&A
Q: How is the break-even calculated and what drove the $49/bbl figure?
A: Break-even includes all variable, cash fixed, and capex costs, credited against refining/chemical margins. The $49 result included $6-$9/bbl macro tailwinds from no Secunda shutdown and Middle East conflict impacts. Without these, organic performance would be higher. Regarding working capital, the increase was 60% pricing-related, 30% Prax/NatRef capacity usage, and 10% volume-related. Inventory is expected to unwind in Q1 FY27 due to planned shutdowns.
Q: What are the constraints on coal operations and external purchase plans?
A: Coal sinks are now below 12%, but gasifier availability remains the primary constraint for FY27 production targets. External coal purchases are planned to drop significantly from 8.8 million tonnes in FY26 to 5-7 million tonnes in FY27. Capex in mining is aligned with the long-term supply roadmap to reach optimal internal production of 34 million tonnes by FY28.
Q: Why restart the Augusta paraffin unit if exiting underperforming assets?
A: The restart demonstrates commercial agility to capture temporary market opportunities created by supply constraints and serve customer needs during shortages. It does not reverse the structural cost reduction targets; the company remains on track for 15-20% fixed cost savings by FY28, aided by one-off ERP implementation costs ending in FY28.
Q: What is the strategy regarding MRG gas pricing and competition from traders?
A: Sasol will not spend significant capital on MRG bridging solutions until the Competition Commission finishes its assessment and gas pricing is clear. To compete with trading-oriented firms, Sasol focuses on organic retail growth (market share up to 13%), security of supply via domestic assets, and feedstock flexibility (coal/crude) which insulates customers from geopolitical shocks.
Q: What drives the credit rating outlook and future liquidity?
A: Ratings remain constrained by South Africa’s sovereign status, though Sasol’s net debt/EBITDA is approx 1.1x. With ~US$5 billion in liquidity, the company can manage upcoming maturities (including 2026 bonds) without immediate refinancing risk. Deleveraging continues to be the priority to improve the balance sheet profile.