SPS Commerce, Inc. (SPSC) Earnings
SPS Commerce, Inc. is expected to report next earnings on July 29, 2026 (in NaN days), with a consensus EPS estimate of $1.08. SPSC has beaten EPS estimates in 12 of its last 12 reported quarters (average surprise +13.2% over the last four).
| Report date | EPS est | EPS actual | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 30, 2026 | $0.97 | $1.10 | +13.4% | $192M | -0.2% |
| Feb 12, 2026 | $1.00 | $1.14 | +14.0% | $193M | -2.5% |
| Oct 30, 2025 | $0.99 | $1.13 | +14.1% | $190M | -1.9% |
| Jul 30, 2025 | $0.90 | $1.00 | +11.1% | $187M | +0.8% |
| Apr 24, 2025 | $0.84 | $1.00 | +19.0% | $182M | +1.4% |
| Oct 24, 2024 | $0.83 | $0.92 | +10.8% | $164M | -3.3% |
| Jul 25, 2024 | $0.76 | $0.80 | +5.3% | $154M | +1.1% |
| Apr 25, 2024 | $0.73 | $0.86 | +17.8% | $150M | +2.1% |
| Feb 8, 2024 | $0.69 | $0.75 | +8.7% | $145M | +1.3% |
| Oct 26, 2023 | $0.66 | $0.75 | +13.6% | $136M | +1.1% |
| Jul 27, 2023 | $0.62 | $0.69 | +11.3% | $130M | +1.2% |
| Feb 9, 2023 | $0.53 | $0.63 | +18.9% | $122M | +1.0% |
Source: company filings + earnings calendar. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Earnings call summary
Q1 FY2026 · April 30, 2026
AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Management highlights
• SPS Commerce delivered solid Q1 with 6% revenue growth. Recurring revenue grew 7% driven by Fulfillment growth of 8%. • Innovations critical in addressing supply chain needs amidst global trade restructuring. • Discussed business dynamics across product portfolio including revenue recovery, cross-selling among 1P customers, and business without revenue recovery. • Shared examples like Siete Foods leveraging MAX to modernize operations and realize value. • Mentioned AI-driven solutions, cross-selling momentum, and operational efficiency improvements. • Highlighted Explore Scientific's transition to SPS Commerce to reestablish operational foundation and expand solution use. • Unlocked incremental growth opportunities by unifying products. • Added seasoned SaaS leaders to the team and introduced new CFO.
Guidance
• Q2 2026 revenue expected to be in range of $194.5M - $196.5M (approx 4% y-o-y growth at midpoint). Adjusted EBITDA expected in range of $60.9M - $62.4M. Fully diluted earnings per share in range of $0.53 - $0.56. Non-GAAP diluted income per share in range of $1.06 - $1.09. • Full year 2026 revenue expected in range of $796M - $802M (approx 6% growth at midpoint). Adjusted EBITDA expected in range of $262.8M - $267.3M (approx 14%-16% growth over 2025). Fully diluted earnings per share in range of $2.66 - $2.69. Non-GAAP diluted income per share in range of $4.73 - $4.76. • Headwinds impacting Amazon revenue recovery business expected to continue. Excluding Amazon, revenue recovery business expected to outpace overall company growth. Business without revenue recovery expected to perform in line with expectations.
Segment performance
Q1 revenue was $192.1 million, up 6%. Recurring revenue grew 7%, driven by Fulfillment growth of 8%. Revenue recovery business faces headwinds from Amazon's policy changes. The business without revenue recovery is performing in line with expectations. Recurring revenue customers in Q1 were approximately 54,200. ARPU was approximately $13,550. Adjusted EBITDA increased to $57.9 million.
Risks & headwinds
• Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. • Risks related to Amazon's policy changes impacting revenue recovery business. • Risks associated with global trade dynamics like tariffs, geopolitics, and Middle East conflict potentially affecting supply chains and customer business. • Risks related to competition in the AI and supply chain automation space. • Risks associated with the rollout of subscription platform fee and potential churn in 3P customers.
Analyst Q&A
Q: When should we expect to see the 3P revenue recovery business start to trough?
A: The Amazon revenue recovery side of the business continues on a negative trajectory, likely troughs somewhere in the middle of 2026 towards the end of the year, and may see more momentum in 2027.
Q: What is the progress of delayed enablement campaigns exiting 2025?
A: Pipeline and activity on retail relationship management campaigns is strong, some campaigns cited in Q4 have now either closed or are near closure, momentum continues, and these programs are more impactful in the second half of 2026.
Q: Any thoughts on what customers could be facing or are facing as a result of Middle East conflict and is there any belief that could knock recovery timeline off of 2Q outlined?
A: Contract scrutiny driven by tariffs is beginning to dissipate, have not yet seen indicators from Middle East conflict affecting customers in the same acute way as tariffs, and not hearing from customers about immediate impact on cost of goods sold.
Q: What is it about the 4,000 third-party customers likely to churn?
A: These are the very smallest of 3P take-rate-only Amazon customers, very low revenue customers, and may not feel the $19.99 per month subscription fee is worth it given low volume of recovery opportunities.
Q: Early takeaways from the MAX program and how customers are implementing it and seeing value?
A: 400 customers in MAX beta, feedback strong, finding value in combining data with proprietary databases, examples like Siete Foods with hard ROI, and thinking about monetization including including MAX in base subscriptions with usage throttled and incremental usage based subscription.
Q: How reliant is the 200 basis points target on growth and how many levers do you have to sustain that trajectory?
A: Savings on 3P side have small impact on EBITDA and 200 basis points target, levers include time to onboard customers, AI internally in product engineering, sales, marketing, R&D, G&A, and working with IT on AI value.
Q: Is high single digits still the right framework and how should we think about the path back to that growth rate?
A: High single digits over mid to long term is appropriate growth rate, headwind is specifically from Amazon revenue recovery piece, other portions of business like revenue recovery without Amazon and business excluding all revenue recovery are growing high single digits when removing Amazon headwind.
Q: How are you thinking about the openness of MAX Connect and monetization as agents leverage your network and data?
A: Been very open and API-friendly, agent-to-agent workflows are future, data is robust, will monetize interactions over time once through beta.
Q: Any learnings or shift in approach toward embedding more conservatism in guidance?
A: No major change in guidance philosophy, reduction in guide related to overall headwinds from Amazon space tied to policy changes, and momentum coming out of Q1 into Q2.
Q: Details on timing of rollout of Amazon 3P pricing changes and how churn from subscription fee translates through metrics?
A: Will begin rolling out in Q2, rollout into Q3, churn may happen over time.
Q: How have trends been as we exit first quarter regarding lower document volumes within Fulfillment and confidence in strong year-on-year growth in volume-based component?
A: Headwind related to contract scrutiny has dissipated, not seen same level of pressure as in 2025, and more confidence in 2026 due to customer renewals.
Q: How has consumption/usage been through beta stage for MAX and helpful in formulating monetization strategy?
A: 400 number was above internal targets, usage informing monetization, current thinking includes including MAX in base subscriptions with usage throttled and incremental usage based subscription.
Q: What are you seeing outside competitors wielding AI capability and to what extent is AI making automation easier to build such that suppliers might consider doing it internally?
A: Still fundamental difference between DIY approach and managed network like SPS Commerce, most competitors facilitate DIY connections, customers likely won't get efficiencies from DIY in managed approach, and average revenue per customer is about $13,000 per year which gives protection.
Q: Clarification on subscription change in Amazon 3P and relation to revenue guide?
A: Subscription fee and churn are not material to revenue, reduction in guide related to overall headwinds from Amazon space tied to policy changes Amazon has made.
Q: How has ability to get product to market faster using AI tooling pulled forward items and will roll out functionality to expand average customer spend?
A: AI tooling has pulled forward items, key areas include expanding to more retailers in revenue recovery, enhancing Analytics product and ERP connections, optimistic about these driving higher ARPU.
Q: On M&A appetite, how has AI raised bar on targets and potential synergies?
A: Most efficient use of capital today is buying back stock, over long term M&A in EDI market consolidation, broadening product solutions for supplier customers, and opportunities outside U.S.
Q: Timetable for deciding on pricing increase for 3P customers and degree anticipated in guidance?
A: Strategically, has always been part of thesis to convert portions of 100% take-rate business to subscription model, decided to start with very small 3P customers, guidance is revenue-neutral with net zero impact to revenue for rest of year.
Q: Opportunities that drew you to SPS Commerce and top priorities stepping into role?
A: Focus areas include ramping on business and industry quickly, driving EBITDA, and laser focusing on AI internally to drive leverage.
Q: How is the commercial team streamlining cross-sell motion to ensure effective adoption of products?
A: Go-to-market motion shifting from acquiring new customers to expanding ARPU with existing customers, focusing on engagement and full lifecycle relationships, making investments in treatment strategies, and new operational rigor brought by new leadership.
Q: Driver for inflection implicitly projected in back half of 2026 given core business excluding Amazon 3P is already growing high single digits?
A: Dynamics include Amazon revenue recovery headwinds, revenue recovery business excluding Amazon growing nicely with cross-selling momentum, and business without revenue recovery performing in line with expectations and seeing improvement compared to 2025.