Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (SIGIP) Earnings
Selective Insurance Group, Inc. is expected to report next earnings on July 23, 2026 (in NaN days), with a consensus EPS estimate of $1.66. SIGIP has beaten EPS estimates in 2 of its last 12 reported quarters (average surprise +2.0% over the last four).
| Report date | EPS est | EPS actual | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 22, 2026 | $1.80 | $1.69 | -6.1% | $1.2B | -5.1% |
| Jan 29, 2026 | $2.02 | $2.56 | +26.7% | $1.4B | +20.2% |
| Oct 20, 2025 | $2.00 | $1.89 | -5.5% | $1.4B | +10.1% |
| Jul 16, 2025 | $1.51 | $1.40 | -7.3% | $1.3B | -1.7% |
| Apr 23, 2025 | $1.85 | $1.79 | -3.2% | $1.3B | -1.7% |
| Jan 29, 2025 | $1.99 | $1.56 | -21.6% | $1.3B | -1.2% |
| Oct 21, 2024 | $1.63 | $1.51 | -7.4% | $1.2B | +6.1% |
| Jul 18, 2024 | $1.49 | $-1.04 | -169.8% | $1.2B | -1.9% |
| May 1, 2024 | $1.86 | $1.35 | -27.4% | $1.2B | +5.1% |
| Feb 21, 2024 | $1.94 | $2.05 | +5.7% | $1.1B | +15.6% |
| Nov 2, 2023 | $1.58 | $1.46 | -7.6% | $1.1B | +6.8% |
| Aug 3, 2023 | $0.99 | $0.96 | -2.8% | $1.0B | +0.7% |
Source: company filings + earnings calendar. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Earnings call summary
Q4 FY2025 · January 30, 2026
AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Management highlights
- In 2025, Selective delivered an ROE of 14.4% and an operating ROE of 14.2%, exceeding the 10-year and 5-year average operating ROEs. Book value per share grew by 18% and $182 million was returned to shareholders. - The 2025 combined ratio was 97.2%, a significant improvement from 2024's 103% due to lower prior year casualty reserve development and catastrophe losses. - Strengthened commercial auto reserves by approximately $190 million in 2025, addressing it with underwriting and claims actions. - Personal Lines combined ratio improved to 100.6% in 2025 from 109.3% in 2024, with better results outside of New Jersey. - Fourth quarter after-tax net investment income was $114 million, up 17% from a year ago, with the investment portfolio conservatively positioned. - Third-party claims review was complete, findings consistent with prior discussion.
Guidance
- For 2026, GAAP combined ratio is expected between 96.5% and 97.5% with 6 points of catastrophe losses assumed. - After-tax net investment income is expected to be $465 million, up 10% from 2025. - Operating ROE in 2026 is implied to be in the 14% range, and the expense ratio is expected to increase by about 0.5 point due to strategic technology investments.
Segment performance
Standard Commercial Lines is the largest segment and the earnings engine. In 2025, its combined ratio was 97.2% for the full year. Premium written growth was 5% for the year. General liability pricing increased by 9.8% and commercial auto pricing increased by 8.6%. Personal Lines had a combined ratio of 100.6% for the full year 2025, with net premiums written declining 8% in the quarter while target business was up 5%. Renewal pure price for the quarter was 15.1%. E&S casualty had a full year combined ratio of 87.8%, with premium growing 4% this quarter and an average renewal pure price increase of 7.8%.
Risks & headwinds
- Regulatory environment in New Jersey for personal lines, with legal changes leading to increased litigation and impact on profitability. - Uncertainty regarding the effect of technology investments on expense ratio and overall combined ratio. - Short-term volatility due to emerging trends and reserve adjustments in response to an evolving external environment.
Analyst Q&A
Q: Michael Phillips asked about confidence in maintaining or improving commercial line margins and reserve setting for GL and commercial auto.
A: John J. Marchioni said they are confident in the guidance based on their process, with underlying combined ratio improvement reasonable, and mentioned movement in case reserves and use of surveys for reserving assessment.
Q: Jing Li inquired about E&S casualty reserves and geographic expansion contribution.
A: John J. Marchioni said E&S casualty reserve movements were de minimis, and geographic expansion contributed 1 - 2 points of top line growth on average, with newer territories performing within expectations.
Q: Rowland Mayor asked about workers' comp releases and GL charges.
A: John J. Marchioni explained workers' comp releases were from tail study and accident years 2022 and prior, and GL charges were predominantly umbrella driven by auto lines.
Q: Michael Zaremski asked about workers' comp loss ratio, expense ratio investment, and retention ratio.
A: John J. Marchioni said they don't provide individual line guidance for workers' comp, technology investment as a percentage of premium is expected to continue rising with offsetting benefits, and focus is on granular pricing execution for retention.