Sera Prognostics, Inc. (SERA) Earnings
Sera Prognostics, Inc. is expected to report next earnings on August 5, 2026 (in NaN days), with a consensus EPS estimate of $-0.14. SERA has beaten EPS estimates in 7 of its last 11 reported quarters (average surprise +12.5% over the last four).
| Report date | EPS est | EPS actual | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 6, 2026 | $-0.16 | $-0.17 | -6.3% | $14000 | -79.0% |
| Mar 18, 2026 | $-0.19 | $-0.16 | +16.6% | $10000 | -68.5% |
| Nov 13, 2025 | $-0.19 | $-0.16 | +15.8% | $16000 | -68.2% |
| Aug 6, 2025 | $-0.21 | $-0.16 | +23.8% | $17000 | -88.7% |
| May 7, 2025 | $-0.24 | $-0.20 | +16.7% | $38000 | -24.0% |
| Mar 19, 2025 | $-0.23 | $-0.25 | -8.7% | $24000 | +65.5% |
| Mar 20, 2024 | $-0.25 | $-0.25 | +0.0% | $41000 | -56.2% |
| Mar 22, 2023 | $-0.42 | $-0.31 | +26.2% | $65000 | -51.2% |
| Nov 9, 2022 | $-0.40 | $-0.35 | +12.5% | $87000 | -20.9% |
| Aug 10, 2022 | $-0.40 | $-0.37 | +7.5% | $78000 | -22.0% |
| Aug 30, 2021 | $-1.26 | $-3.17 | -151.6% | $20000 | -92.9% |
| Dec 31, 2020 | — | $-0.30 | — | $6000 | — |
Source: company filings + earnings calendar. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Earnings call summary
Q1 FY2026 · May 6, 2026
AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Management highlights
- Launched third partnership program during the quarter, expected to reach over 350 providers across three states. - Engaged in active discussions with 13 payers across 15 states. - European expert commentary on prime trial and PREPARE survey results published, supporting stakeholder engagement. - Advanced advocacy strategy, including letter-writing campaign. - Realigned resources, prioritizing investments in payer engagement, market access, and clinical adoption, shifting capital from R&D and clinical operations to commercial and medical activities.
Guidance
- Revenue in 2026 could remain modest and uneven as continuing to push reimbursement, awareness, and advocacy campaigns. - Expect to reduce operating expense base by nearly $10 million annually, with majority of savings realized in 2027 and beyond. - Existing cash and cash equivalents sufficient to fund operating expenses and capital expenditure requirements through 2029.
Segment performance
Revenue for the quarter was $14,000 compared to $38,000 in the first quarter of 2025. Operating expenses for the quarter were $9.4 million, up slightly from $9.3 million in the prior year period. Research and development expenses were $3.0 million compared to $3.3 million in 2025. Selling general and administrative expenses were $6.3 million versus $5.9 million in the prior year. Net loss for the quarter was $8.4 million compared to a net loss of $8.2 million in the first quarter of 2025. Ended March 31, 2026 with $86.8 million in cash, cash equivalents, and available for sale securities.
Analyst Q&A
Q: A few from me. First on the partner program, could get color on the kind of profile of the third partner and how it compares to the first two, and on the required cadence throughout the rest of the year to hit the goal of five to seven partner programs, and second, for the new reps, are measuring anything in terms of tests per rep per month or other KPIs.
A: On the programs, launch roughly one a quarter, each program is a combination of a payer and provider group, with heavy engagement with state, and pipeline of payers growing. On rep productivity, chief commercial officer and head of sales engage on forecasting, and as soon as steady progress seen, will start reporting on metrics.
Q: Just on the shift to a more direct commercial effort, what prompted the shift?
A: Two root causes, less demand on R&D and ClinOps capacity internally and demand externally to continue developing tests.
Q: Previously talked about low single-digit thousand volumes this year, is that still on track?
A: Not unreasonable, and as soon as steadiness seen, will start reporting on it.
Q: When can see the first Medicaid program potentially turn into a positive coverage decision?
A: Took six months to stand up, about nine to 12 months to fully recruit, four to five months for patients to deliver, couple of months to collect data, then take to state, expected beginning of 2027 to bring decision.