Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (RRGB) Earnings
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. is expected to report next earnings on August 12, 2026 (in NaN days), with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.28. RRGB has beaten EPS estimates in 5 of its last 12 reported quarters (average surprise +63.2% over the last four).
| Report date | EPS est | EPS actual | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 19, 2026 | $0.21 | $0.13 | -38.1% | $378M | +38.4% |
| Feb 25, 2026 | $-0.28 | $-0.41 | -46.4% | $269M | -26.5% |
| Aug 13, 2025 | $-0.25 | $0.26 | +204.0% | $284M | +9.5% |
| May 29, 2025 | $-0.57 | $0.19 | +133.3% | $392M | +0.9% |
| Feb 26, 2025 | $-0.50 | $-0.94 | -88.0% | $285M | -27.3% |
| Aug 22, 2024 | $-0.41 | $-0.48 | -17.1% | $300M | +2.0% |
| May 29, 2024 | $-0.41 | $-0.80 | -95.1% | $389M | -1.1% |
| Feb 28, 2024 | $-0.43 | $-0.66 | -53.5% | $309M | +1.3% |
| Nov 1, 2023 | $-0.81 | $-0.79 | +2.5% | $278M | -9.5% |
| Aug 17, 2023 | $-0.55 | $-0.24 | +56.4% | $299M | +1.1% |
| May 24, 2023 | $-0.62 | $0.25 | +140.3% | $418M | +3.1% |
| Feb 28, 2023 | $-0.66 | $-1.35 | -104.5% | $290M | +0.4% |
Source: company filings + earnings calendar. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Earnings call summary
Q1 FY2026 · May 19, 2026
AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Management highlights
### Strategic Plan Execution (First Choice Plan) Management's progress on the five pillars of the First Choice strategic plan is as follows: - **HoldServe (Operational & Labor Efficiency):** Labor efficiency initiatives delivered 130 basis points of year-over-year savings. First quarter labor as a percentage of revenue hit 35.7%, the company's lowest first quarter labor percentage in three years. Efficiency gains have been achieved without reducing guest satisfaction scores, confirming operational excellence and hospitality are complementary. The managing partner accountability model has driven sustained improvement. - **Drive Traffic:** The expanded Big Yum value platform launched in late January 2026 has resonated with guests. The platform includes six meal options priced from $9.99 to $16.99, all with Red Robin's signature bottomless sides and beverages, and now mixes at over 13% of sales, meeting internal expectations. The company uses a barbell menu strategy that balances this value offering with higher-priced indulgent options to expand reach across day parts and guest occasions. Recent product innovation, such as the newly launched towering sliders, has achieved record menu satisfaction scores and driven incremental check growth. Data-driven, locally tailored targeted marketing has improved engagement and marketing efficiency, supporting improved traffic performance. - **Find Money (Corporate & Balance Sheet Optimization):** Mid-2025 G&A reduction initiatives are delivering sustained cost savings, and the company remains on track to hit its full 2026 step-down target. Tactical refranchising discussions are in final stages with multiple prospective franchisees, with strong interest from sophisticated operators that reflect growing confidence in Red Robin's progress. Management remains disciplined and selective, prioritizing operators aligned with the company's focus on operational excellence and guest experience, while targeting terms that meet balance sheet goals. Proceeds from any completed transactions will be used to reduce debt. - **Fix Restaurants:** A light-touch restaurant refresh program focused on customer-facing experience improvements is underway in 2026, with the first markets expected to be completed by the end of June. The company is also rolling out upgraded server handheld devices and an updated version of its Xeos tabletop devices, which are expected to improve server efficiency, order accuracy, and service speed. - **Win Together (Culture & People):** Hourly employee turnover remains at historically low levels, and employee engagement scores are above industry benchmarks, creating operational stability that supports consistent guest experiences. The company has adopted an enterprise ChatGPT AI platform, with strong adoption across field operations. Managing partners use the AI tools to optimize labor scheduling, manage food costs, and improve guest service, contributing to current operational efficiency gains. ### Core Q1 2026 Performance Highlights - Q1 2026 delivered the company's strongest traffic performance since Q1 2023 and highest Q1 restaurant operating profit margin since 2021. - Traffic performance improved sequentially from Q4 2025, narrowing the traffic gap with the casual dining industry.
Guidance
Management maintained its full-year 2026 guidance, which does not include any potential impact from refranchising initiatives: - Comparable restaurant revenues (excluding deferred loyalty revenue impact) are expected to be between 0.5% and 1.5%. - Full-year restaurant-level operating profit margin is expected to be approximately 13%. - Adjusted EBITDA is projected to be between $70 million and $73 million. - Full-year capital expenditures are expected to range between $25 million and $30 million.
Segment performance
Red Robin operates as a single restaurant segment for this quarter. Total Q1 2026 revenue was $378 million, a $14 million decrease year-over-year, driven by restaurant closures and a comparable sales decline. Same-store sales (excluding deferred loyalty revenue) decreased 0.6%: this was comprised of a 1.0% increase in average check offset by a 1.6% traffic decline. Average check increased 3.1% from pricing, which was partially offset by a 2.1% decrease from product mix and Big Yum value platform discounts. Restaurant-level operating margin came in at 14.8%, a 50 basis point year-over-year improvement, marking the company's highest first quarter margin in five years. General and administrative costs were $23 million, a $4 million year-over-year decrease from corporate efficiency initiatives. Selling expenses were $13 million, a $4 million year-over-year increase. Adjusted EBITDA was $27.3 million, a $0.6 million year-over-year decrease. As of quarter-end, the company held $24 million in cash and equivalents, $10 million in restricted cash, and had $17 million in available revolving credit borrowing capacity.
Risks & headwinds
- The broader macroeconomic environment remains challenging, requiring continued deliberate focus on value and disciplined average check management. - Unhedged commodity exposure, particularly for beef and dairy, creates potential inflation risk for 2026 input costs. - Further labor efficiency gains are limited by the need to avoid negative impacts to guest satisfaction, which management prioritizes over additional cost savings. - Current positive traffic momentum is still emerging, with performance subject to macroeconomic consumer spending shifts and weather-related disruptions that impacted quarter-end performance.
Analyst Q&A
Q: What drove the quarter-end traffic and sales acceleration, and is there additional room for further labor efficiency gains after the strong Q1 improvements?
A: Q1 had a strong start, a mid-quarter dip from severe weather, and a strong end-of-quarter rebound driven by Big Yum performance, the new menu launch, and increased year-over-year targeted marketing spend, which will continue in Q2. Management noted that the large labor efficiency gains of recent quarters will slow as the company nears its optimal labor level, but will continue pursuing incremental efficiency as long as guest satisfaction is not compromised. Annual lapping of prior savings will start in Q2 2026.
Q: Has Q1 end-of-quarter traffic momentum continued into Q2 2026, what is the planned pricing cadence for the rest of the year, and how will the company balance value and menu innovation moving forward?
A: Early Q2 trends remain consistent with the strong end-of-quarter momentum from Q1. Full-year pricing is expected to stay in the 3% to 3.5% range, with minimal additional rollover from prior year increases. The company will continue a balanced approach that combines the successful Big Yum value platform with ongoing new product innovation and limited-time offerings, rather than focusing exclusively on value.
Q: What was the Q1 2026 store closure count and full-year closure cadence, and what is the expected financial impact?
A: Six stores were closed in Q1, with approximately 14 additional closures planned for the remainder of 2026, spread relatively evenly across the remaining three quarters. Total annual revenue impact from 2025 and 2026 closures is expected to be close to $40 million, with a roughly neutral impact on full-year restaurant-level operating margin.
Q: What is the company's current commodity hedging status, particularly for beef, and how do AI tools contribute to labor efficiency?
A: As of Q1 end, 60% of 2026 commodity needs are locked; beef and dairy are mostly unhedged, leaving overall commodity inflation expected around 3.5% for the full year. AI tools support efficiency by highlighting optimization opportunities for labor scheduling and food inventory management, alongside hardware upgrades that improve restaurant-level productivity. Management continues to prioritize avoiding negative guest impacts from over-efficiency.
Q: Where has Big Yum mix trended since the expanded platform launch?
A: After expanding the platform from a limited-time $9.99 offering to a core menu with multiple price points, mix increased from the 8% to 9% range to 13% to 14%, where it has stabilized. This outcome meets management expectations and supports the barbell pricing strategy.