Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. (PROV) Earnings
Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. is expected to report next earnings on July 27, 2026 (in NaN days), with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.28. PROV has beaten EPS estimates in 4 of its last 12 reported quarters (average surprise -30.8% over the last four).
| Report date | EPS est | EPS actual | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29, 2026 | $0.29 | $0.21 | -27.6% | $10M | -2.2% |
| Jan 27, 2026 | $0.30 | $0.22 | -26.7% | $10M | -2.6% |
| Oct 28, 2025 | $0.29 | $0.25 | -13.8% | $10M | -7.2% |
| Jan 28, 2025 | $0.29 | $0.13 | -55.2% | $10M | -4.2% |
| Jan 29, 2024 | $0.26 | $0.31 | +19.2% | $10M | -3.5% |
| Oct 25, 2023 | $0.28 | $0.25 | -10.7% | $10M | -2.9% |
| Jul 26, 2023 | $0.33 | $0.26 | -21.2% | $10M | -0.0% |
| Jan 27, 2023 | $0.34 | $0.33 | -2.9% | $10M | -0.6% |
| Jul 26, 2022 | $0.23 | $0.34 | +47.8% | $10M | +8.7% |
| Jan 26, 2022 | $0.22 | $0.30 | +36.4% | $9M | +3.8% |
| Jul 28, 2021 | $0.18 | $0.44 | +144.4% | $9M | +25.7% |
| Jan 27, 2021 | $0.22 | $0.16 | -27.3% | $10M | +6.3% |
Source: company filings + earnings calendar. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Earnings call summary
Q3 FY2026 · April 29, 2026
AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Management highlights
- Lower mortgage rates in most of the third quarter supported higher loan originations but also higher loan prepayments. Originated $44.2 million of loans held for investment, a 5% increase from prior sequential quarter; $52.1 million of loan principal payments and payoffs, a 12% increase from December 2025 quarter. - Continuing to make prudent adjustments to underwriting requirements in certain loan segments. Loan pipelines stabilized due to market turbulence and recent interest rate rise, suggesting loan origination volume in June 2026 quarter may be in mid to upper range of recent quarters with moderation in prepayment volume. - Loans held for investment decreased by ~$8 million in Q3 2026, primarily in single-family loans. Non-performing assets unchanged at $978,000 (eight basis points of total assets) with no early-stage delinquencies. Monitored commercial real estate loans, particularly office building-secured loans, with $36.1 million exposure (3.5% of loans held for investment) and five CRE loans maturing in 2026 totaling $1.9 million. - Recorded $326,000 provision for credit losses in Q3 2026 due to increase in expected life of loan portfolio from higher mortgage rates. Allowance for credit losses to gross loans held for investment increased to 58 basis points from 55 basis points. - Net interest margin increased 10 basis points in Q3 2026, with special cash dividend from Federal Home Loan Bank contributing nine basis points, offset by 11 basis point decrease in loan yield. Cost of borrowings decreased 28 basis points, average cost of deposits increased one basis point. New loan production at higher mortgage interest rates than existing portfolio. Adjustable rate loans repricing in June and September 2026 quarters with estimated interest rate changes. - FTE count at March 31, 2026 was 160, down from 163 one year ago. Short-term strategy focuses on discipline balance sheet growth by expanding loan portfolio. Board authorized new stock repurchase program for up to 5% of outstanding common stock, repurchased ~92,000 shares at $1.5 million cost during Q3 2026.
Guidance
- Loan origination volume in the June 2026 quarter may be in the mid to upper range of recent quarters ($28 - $44 million). - Expect moderation in prepayment volume. - Expected operating expenses for the June 2026 quarter are approximately $7.5 to $7.7 million. - Board authorized new stock repurchase program for up to 5% of the company's outstanding common stock. - Anticipate net interest margin expansion in the June 2026 quarter due to expected repricing of wholesale funding downward.
Segment performance
For the three months ended March 31, 2026, loans held for investment decreased by approximately $8 million, primarily in the single-family loan portfolio. Non-performing assets were $978,000 (eight basis points of total assets) at March 31, 2026, unchanged from December 2025. Loans held for investment originated were $44.2 million in the most recent quarter, a 5% increase from the prior sequential quarter. Loan principal payments and payoffs were $52.1 million, a 12% increase from the December 2025 quarter. Net interest margin increased 10 basis points to 3.13% for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. Operating expenses were $7.6 million in the March 2026 quarter, a decrease from $7.9 million in the December 2025 quarter. For the June 2026 quarter, operating expenses are expected to be approximately $7.5 to $7.7 million. Loans held for investment origination volume in the June 2026 quarter may be in the mid to upper range of recent quarters ($28 - $44 million) with expected moderation in prepayment volume.
Risks & headwinds
- Current market turbulence and recent rise in interest rates have stabilized loan pipelines. Commercial real estate loans, particularly office building-secured loans, are monitored but still pose potential risks. The provision for credit losses is affected by changes in mortgage interest rates and expected life of the loan portfolio, which are uncertain. Fluctuations in interest rates can impact loan origination volume, prepayment volume, and net interest margin.
Analyst Q&A
Q: Question about prepayment trends, due to competition or something else?
A: Predominant theme is lower mortgage interest rates, also some loans repricing for first time out of fixed rate period with higher interest rates triggering borrowers to look for refinance, and competition is high with pricing and underwriting characteristic pressure. Expect prepayments to come down due to recent interest rate rise.
Q: If forward curve plays out with no cuts this year, how does it impact origination activity?
A: Origination volume could replicate recent activity with origination volume up 24% in first nine months of this year compared to last year, driven by increase in multifamily and CRE (multifamily and CRE up 97%, single-family up 6%) due to positive yield curve spread making it beneficial to be more aggressive in originating loans.
Q: Given backdrop, is margin expansion still a reasonable estimate?
A: March quarter had nice expansion but large part was Federal Home Loan Bank special cash dividend. Backing out that dividend, margin expanded about two or three basis points in March quarter. June quarter expected to have better net interest margin expansion than normalized March activity due to better repricing characteristics with $135 million of loans repricing upwards of 72 basis points and $85 million of wholesale funding expected to reprice downward.
Q: Is provision expense a function of size of loan portfolio and not just origination activity?
A: Provision expense is a result of size of the loan portfolio as well as deterioration or improvement in the portfolio, with the most important factor being mortgage interest rates and their impact on estimated life of the portfolio, with a smaller component related to credit risk and portfolio expansion/decline